How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
How long have you been saying that? Does your wife think you're a prat yet? 
Agree on the small houses being made into large ones though. This road I live on has 8, yes 8 Victorian places (mix of semi and detached) having lofts done - which will take them from circa 700k houses up to over 800k.
Agree on the small houses being made into large ones though. This road I live on has 8, yes 8 Victorian places (mix of semi and detached) having lofts done - which will take them from circa 700k houses up to over 800k.
Mr Whippy said:
I'm sat here watching a bungalow nearby having two ground floor extensions and dormers added to it.
It's gone from a granny house to a family home. So where do the grannies go now?
And why are there no decent sized family homes for these people to move into that are reasonably priced?
It's all gonna end in tears around here.
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
London isn't as bad as parts of Aus/NZ. Auckland in parts doubled in 3 years. Low interest rates, no capital gains, wealthy Chinese buying everything they can get their hands on. Government can do fk all about it. Next generation are tenants in a country where owning owns house is a very big deal.It's gone from a granny house to a family home. So where do the grannies go now?
And why are there no decent sized family homes for these people to move into that are reasonably priced?
It's all gonna end in tears around here.
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
TheLordJohn said:
Mr Whippy said:
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
ks sake 
Buyer sentiment being expressed?
It's quite obvious to see who owns property as an investment and doesn't like the idea of value dropping in any way shape or form. If you feel that way then you'll love Draghi's helicopter money... even more so if you vote 'in' for the EU
Dave
I've noticed this slowdown the past couple of months too in my corner of Surrey. It actually feels (based on purely anecdotal browsing of the property pages and seeing what goes quickly and what languishes on forever) that there's a two-speed market developing.
For property up to about 80-90 sq. m. it seems there's a going rate of around £3500-4000 per square metre, and anything which is priced around that is still disappearing from the market within a couple of weeks of going on - all well and good and very much the story as it was from the point mortgage availability for FTBs improved back around 2012/2013.
However, get beyond that 80-90 sq. m. point (roughly the size of a generous 2 bed place with a decent lounge, or a smallish 3 bed where one of the bedrooms is more cupboard than usable room, if you need to visualise it) and each additional square metre is costing you anything from £10k up to £30-40k for some of the more ambitiously priced chocolate-box Victorian places. (It's sometimes hard to spot as estate agents have started disguising the limited amount of floor area by including garages and outbuildings in the advertised figure to make it look larger.) And this stuff just isn't shifting at all - people apparently aren't willing to double their mortgage to gain no more extra space than they'd get from a small extension or, in some cases, just a good tidy up and taking some unwanted furniture down the tip. Which of course is constraining the supply of those smaller 2 and 3 bedroom properties something rotten - nobody's selling theirs because any meaningful upgrade is double the price, and therefore you've got a queue of people waiting for anything that's sub-£350k and less than that magic £4k/sq.m. to hit the market.
Personally I feel that some of those small houses with big price tags are looking rather vulnerable - but for London and the immediate surrounds I really don't see much of a fall at the more entry level of the market unless there's either a big reversal in the trend for more and more people to want to live in that corner of the UK, or a significant drop in employment/wage prospects around the capital. But yeah, well, that's just like my opinion man. Who knows what'll actually happen?
For property up to about 80-90 sq. m. it seems there's a going rate of around £3500-4000 per square metre, and anything which is priced around that is still disappearing from the market within a couple of weeks of going on - all well and good and very much the story as it was from the point mortgage availability for FTBs improved back around 2012/2013.
However, get beyond that 80-90 sq. m. point (roughly the size of a generous 2 bed place with a decent lounge, or a smallish 3 bed where one of the bedrooms is more cupboard than usable room, if you need to visualise it) and each additional square metre is costing you anything from £10k up to £30-40k for some of the more ambitiously priced chocolate-box Victorian places. (It's sometimes hard to spot as estate agents have started disguising the limited amount of floor area by including garages and outbuildings in the advertised figure to make it look larger.) And this stuff just isn't shifting at all - people apparently aren't willing to double their mortgage to gain no more extra space than they'd get from a small extension or, in some cases, just a good tidy up and taking some unwanted furniture down the tip. Which of course is constraining the supply of those smaller 2 and 3 bedroom properties something rotten - nobody's selling theirs because any meaningful upgrade is double the price, and therefore you've got a queue of people waiting for anything that's sub-£350k and less than that magic £4k/sq.m. to hit the market.
Personally I feel that some of those small houses with big price tags are looking rather vulnerable - but for London and the immediate surrounds I really don't see much of a fall at the more entry level of the market unless there's either a big reversal in the trend for more and more people to want to live in that corner of the UK, or a significant drop in employment/wage prospects around the capital. But yeah, well, that's just like my opinion man. Who knows what'll actually happen?
Mr Whippy said:
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
Meanwhile back in the real world people just buy. FFS you sound like the prat who said the very same words to me back in 2000! Life is too short to sit waiting for things to come to you, sometimes you have to make the effort and go to them.Dave_ST220 said:
Mr Whippy said:
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
Meanwhile back in the real world people just buy. FFS you sound like the prat who said the very same words to me back in 2000! Life is too short to sit waiting for things to come to you, sometimes you have to make the effort and go to them.In parts of the country you can rent a far better house than you can buy. If you have sufficient income for your retirement anyway renting and seeing how things develop may be the best strategy.
Most of the next generation in the south-east wont be able to buy in any case.
JagLover said:
Why all the aggression?
Sorry but there was zero aggression intended, if it read like that then you've wrongly assumed a tone in written text. The OP has been beating the same drum for donkeys years, probably since the day this thread started, I forget.We get it, rent if you are happy but don't keep smugly stating a crash is around the corner for over a decade.
Huge slowdown in West London (Warwick Ave/Queens Park/West Hampstead/ Kilburn).
Prices were about £500k 2 years ago for a 50sqm flat in Warwick Ave/Queens Park, it then went up to £570k ish but next to nothing sold, and now its dropped back to £440/500k.
There were 2 bed flats on the borders of West Hampstead going for £500k (68 sqm), that still took 2-3 weeks to shift. and a sub £400k 43sqm 1 bed in a similar location (that sold more quickly). Anything above that just sits on the market.
Compare this to the east where 55sqm 2 bed flats are priced at £530k in West Hackney!
Then also look towards Brent Cross, where homes just south of there were around £1 million for a 140sqm house with a drive and garage, I am seeing much more supply of houses there with 220sqm properties on sale for around £700k and smaller houses up for sale at £440-650k.
Something has definitely changed including:
1) Shorts against property developers e.g. Berkeley went up to around 9% in Feb/March
2) ONS admitted they got their house price figures wrong to the tune of about £27k http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/apr/12/londo...
3) Bank of Ireland (admittedly not in the best shape) have capped loans in central London to £500k to avoid the risk
4) There was something about a huge property management company who started the sell off months before prime fell over, has now announced they feel the same about the rest of London and have started their sell off.
5) Estate agents that I haven't spoken to in a year calling me daily without fail (for the last 3 weeks)
I actually have a house reserved in Cricklewood, but I am now genuinely reconsidering as this looks like it is on the verge of crumbling.
Prices were about £500k 2 years ago for a 50sqm flat in Warwick Ave/Queens Park, it then went up to £570k ish but next to nothing sold, and now its dropped back to £440/500k.
There were 2 bed flats on the borders of West Hampstead going for £500k (68 sqm), that still took 2-3 weeks to shift. and a sub £400k 43sqm 1 bed in a similar location (that sold more quickly). Anything above that just sits on the market.
Compare this to the east where 55sqm 2 bed flats are priced at £530k in West Hackney!
Then also look towards Brent Cross, where homes just south of there were around £1 million for a 140sqm house with a drive and garage, I am seeing much more supply of houses there with 220sqm properties on sale for around £700k and smaller houses up for sale at £440-650k.
Something has definitely changed including:
1) Shorts against property developers e.g. Berkeley went up to around 9% in Feb/March
2) ONS admitted they got their house price figures wrong to the tune of about £27k http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/apr/12/londo...
3) Bank of Ireland (admittedly not in the best shape) have capped loans in central London to £500k to avoid the risk
4) There was something about a huge property management company who started the sell off months before prime fell over, has now announced they feel the same about the rest of London and have started their sell off.
5) Estate agents that I haven't spoken to in a year calling me daily without fail (for the last 3 weeks)
I actually have a house reserved in Cricklewood, but I am now genuinely reconsidering as this looks like it is on the verge of crumbling.
My area of london (Victoria Park / Mile end) is pretty stable but i dont think moving up aggressively any more.
£500k buys you an ok 1 bed flat. £650-750k needed for a nice two bed flat. Theres a new period development of flats very close to me, which are being marketed at £1k a sq ft, they dont exactly seem to be flying out the door, i think they would shift with 10% off the price, theres a little less urgency about i think.
The houses that were 850k (three bed, period, garden, ok street) in 2012, £950k ish in 2014 are now £1.1m - £1.2m for the nice ones. The good ones sell quite quickly i think at that price point, but there arnt many good ones, there are plenty of people trying to sell ropey ones at £1.2m and they dont seem to be selling.
£500k buys you an ok 1 bed flat. £650-750k needed for a nice two bed flat. Theres a new period development of flats very close to me, which are being marketed at £1k a sq ft, they dont exactly seem to be flying out the door, i think they would shift with 10% off the price, theres a little less urgency about i think.
The houses that were 850k (three bed, period, garden, ok street) in 2012, £950k ish in 2014 are now £1.1m - £1.2m for the nice ones. The good ones sell quite quickly i think at that price point, but there arnt many good ones, there are plenty of people trying to sell ropey ones at £1.2m and they dont seem to be selling.
ClaphamGT3 said:
Go and take a look at al the saddoes on the tank of bitter piss that is HPC who cashed out 10 years ago because there was going to be a big crash and have seen the value of their capital in the housing market hideously eroded since.
Never been there but had a quick look, found this gem from 2008....HPC said:
Take for example a friend of mine. She and her husband have a property which an estate agent would value at £380,000. The have a mortgage of £80k and pay £491/month (repayment). Now if they were to sell tomorrow for £380k they would net around £280k after costs. This would provide £1400 in net interest per month which would pay for the rent of an equivalent property. So they get to live rent free, save £491 per month and watch the house prices drop. Now working on 4 years again that would mean a 30% drop saves them £137,568 and a 40% drop £175,568.
It's a no brainer really!!!!!!!
It's a no brainer really!!!!!!!
Dave_ST220 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
Go and take a look at al the saddoes on the tank of bitter piss that is HPC who cashed out 10 years ago because there was going to be a big crash and have seen the value of their capital in the housing market hideously eroded since.
Never been there but had a quick look, found this gem from 2008....HPC said:
Take for example a friend of mine. She and her husband have a property which an estate agent would value at £380,000. The have a mortgage of £80k and pay £491/month (repayment). Now if they were to sell tomorrow for £380k they would net around £280k after costs. This would provide £1400 in net interest per month which would pay for the rent of an equivalent property. So they get to live rent free, save £491 per month and watch the house prices drop. Now working on 4 years again that would mean a 30% drop saves them £137,568 and a 40% drop £175,568.
It's a no brainer really!!!!!!!
It's a no brainer really!!!!!!!
I sometimes go on HPC for a laugh. They're all morons.
Dave_ST220 said:
Mr Whippy said:
We want to buy but were happy renting feeling quite content that affordability will improve one way or another... salaries up or prices down.
Meanwhile back in the real world people just buy. FFS you sound like the prat who said the very same words to me back in 2000! Life is too short to sit waiting for things to come to you, sometimes you have to make the effort and go to them.With regards to affordability, yes some people can't afford to buy, but those with money can afford to buy houses at their current prices and support the market. I know it's all been said before but land is a finite resource, population and hence demand is forever growing, etc...
XJ40 said:
With regards to affordability, yes some people can't afford to buy, but those with money can afford to buy houses at their current prices and support the market. I know it's all been said before but land is a finite resource, population and hence demand is forever growing, etc...
Land is indeed a finite resource, but more relevant is land with planning permission, and there are many who want to loosen current planning regulations.For example 430,000 homes could be built, close to train stations, on just 2 percent of London's green belt.
http://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2016/ma...
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