How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[DoubleSix]

V6Alfisti said:

Croutons said:

Bristol is a tale of three parts:

1) Affordable/ cheaper stuff, which is still shifting, in some cases in droves. Eg average 3-beds in Bradley Stoke weren't making 250k last year and the stamp duty change didn't do a lot for that. Now they've moved >10% in year as [arguably nicer, more established] surrounding areas have moved up a lot and now look pricey, eg http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... and http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

2) Mid-market, which means in prime areas (BS6, 8, 9, no arguments please) 3-bed houses (often semi or terraces) now blowing over the top of 500k and up to 600, which is psychologically difficult for buyers in terms of stamp duty, both locally and those escaping their 1-bed hovel in Crouch End and expecting a Georgian mansion. These are priced high because of a) Agents competing but instructions falling so the BS factor creeps in, and b) sellers need the cash to move up so price things madly and expect. Examples http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... This level is also where a lot of prime flats now are, and many flats which are not prime, but the vendor won't hear otherwise, the market for which is limited. Naturally this filters out elsewhere, eg 4-beds in Bradley Stoke with prices north of 500 are difficult to shift, as people think "I'd rather have a better area".

3) And the top, which continues to be subject to its own rules, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

It would not surprise me if your neighbours house was in the rather stuck middle...

Oddly this was in the affordable/cheaper stuff range. I think it was up for £300k ish

My sister has her flat in Cotham (BS6) and her neighbours flats (still under £300k, moved rather quickly!)

Anything that goes on the market here in North Bristol (Westbury-on-Trym, Henleaze, Sneyd Park) seems to fly of the shelf in no time.

Proximity to good schools is major factor I suspect.

[z4RRSchris]

London market screwed, -20% at least already and more to come.

My view is we will vote to leave. See some more price drops to -50% then good recovery as we become cheap to overseas currency

[Hitch]

News saying London up 14.5% over the past year this morning. Has it really fallen off that much in recent months?

[turbobloke]

DoubleSix said:

Anything that goes on the market here in North Bristol (Westbury-on-Trym, Henleaze, Sneyd Park) seems to fly of the shelf in no time.

Proximity to good schools is major factor I suspect.

WoT has long been a popular location.

[NerveAgent]

Having sold a few months ago and currently looking to buy in south Manchester. Prices seem to have come to a stand still over the last year and not much is coming on the market in my budget Range the past couple of months.

[Sheepshanks]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Does it matter?

[V6Alfisti]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Very interesting.

1) Phone calls - God they have been calling the last few months, despite saying that I am not interested one month I had daily phone calls from an agent, now blocked. It is just so high risk to buy now imo (and not because of brexit), unless something is staggeringly good value then it's not worth me looking.

2)The viewing situation you mention, exactly what my Bristol neighbour mentioned but he had only a handful of viewings.

IMO people appear to have done well on paper, but if there is no-one to sell on to because of growing understanding that the market is massively over valued, affordability has been maxed and there is strong risk of negative equity, then its all meaningless.

That is part of my fear about buying right now, a) strong likelyhood of drops, in fact RICS have now warned that London will go into decline, as well as Haarts a few weeks before that b) if I buy a 700k property at today's inflated prices and say it goes up another 300k in 10 years (unlikely imo), who will be able to afford a £1m starter home? No-one and thus situation repeated.

Properties that I have seen sold were listed at better than average value.

E.g Hampstead/Kilburn border - 54sqm 1 bed flat would have been about £500k late 2015 and people are still trying it. However there was one that came up for £420k and didnt sell, then it was listed at £370k and sold about a week later. So about 30% below the current average.

Same area - 80sqm basement flat - Listed at £500k where I would normally expect that to be listed for £650k, sold about 3-4 weeks later. Lots of the current prices on rightmove are just fiction and hence why £25k gets lopped off after a week and can drop £100k+ depending on property value.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th June 09:27

[GlenMH]

DoubleSix said:

V6Alfisti said:

Croutons said:

Bristol is a tale of three parts:

2) Mid-market, which means in prime areas (BS6, 8, 9, no arguments please) 3-bed houses (often semi or terraces) now blowing over the top of 500k and up to 600, which is psychologically difficult for buyers in terms of stamp duty, both locally and those escaping their 1-bed hovel in Crouch End and expecting a Georgian mansion. These are priced high because of a) Agents competing but instructions falling so the BS factor creeps in, and b) sellers need the cash to move up so price things madly and expect. Examples http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... This level is also where a lot of prime flats now are, and many flats which are not prime, but the vendor won't hear otherwise, the market for which is limited. Naturally this filters out elsewhere, eg 4-beds in Bradley Stoke with prices north of 500 are difficult to shift, as people think "I'd rather have a better area".

It would not surprise me if your neighbours house was in the rather stuck middle...

Oddly this was in the affordable/cheaper stuff range. I think it was up for £300k ish

My sister has her flat in Cotham (BS6) and her neighbours flats (still under £300k, moved rather quickly!)

Anything that goes on the market here in North Bristol (Westbury-on-Trym, Henleaze, Sneyd Park) seems to fly of the shelf in no time.

Proximity to good schools is major factor I suspect.

You have missed a bit in the middle sector: Cotham, Redland, Bishopston and St Andrews are all Victorian neighbourhoods. Whole houses can be up to 6+ bedrooms but most are 3 or 4 beds but with lots of potential for extension. The vast majority of properties that I know of that have gone in BS6 have been sold to Londoners who have done a massive refurb before moving in. One flat on my street (3 bed, GF conversion of a Victorian place) fell through at £320k earlier this year to complete this month @ £365k. Lunacy. 2 houses over the back of my house have gone for ~£700k and then been fully refitted after completion but before move in date... Limited stock of houses, very very little on the market in the "best" streets means that things go mental when one does go on the market.

Anyone that doesn't need to change location but does already live here is doing an extension and/or loft conversion instead of moving....

[Timmy40]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

killing the goose that laid the golden egg comes to mind. The problem is althogh announced as a measure targeting by-to-let landlords the actual group affected has ( because of the way the SDLT has been imeplemented ) been much, much wider than that.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a big fall in overall SD revenue. You would have thought as Chancellor he might have read some of the OECD papers about higher taxes beyond a certain level actually reducing overall tax revenues.

[V6Alfisti]

Hitch said:

News saying London up 14.5% over the past year this morning. Has it really fallen off that much in recent months?

The recent months have been abysmal. Also they have changed the calculation recently, apparently the average house price has is now around £200k, not £300k ! ha. You couldn't make it up.

[TLandCruiser]

V6Alfisti said:

The recent months have been abysmal. Also they have changed the calculation recently, apparently the average house price has is now around £200k, not £300k ! ha. You couldn't make it up.

Did that change when the government sold the land registry?

[Jobbo]

TLandCruiser said:

Did that change when the government sold the land registry?

When did that happen?!

[WCZ]

NerveAgent said:

Having sold a few months ago and currently looking to buy in south Manchester. Prices seem to have come to a stand still over the last year and not much is coming on the market in my budget Range the past couple of months.

Manchester (specifically the city center) has been nuts recently.

My brother has been trying to buy a 2 bed flat and over the last 2 months he's put an offer (above asking price) on 3 properties, all of which have been rejected - some going for +30k over and other places are selling over night.

[Thankyou4calling]

WCZ said:

Manchester (specifically the city center) has been nuts recently.

My brother has been trying to buy a 2 bed flat and over the last 2 months he's put an offer (above asking price) on 3 properties, all of which have been rejected - some going for +30k over and other places are selling over night.

There are literally hundreds of two bedroom apartments on the market in Manchester city centre though.

What's so special about the ones he is offering on?

[Timberwolf]

There's some suggestion that with prices in the capital looking rather peaky, Manchester is being seen as the "next London" by overseas investors: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36086012

[WCZ]

Thankyou4calling said:

There are literally hundreds of two bedroom apartments on the market in Manchester city centre though.

What's so special about the ones he is offering on?

they have character (mostly old conversions, exposed brickwork, beams etc) and are 750+sq ft

too many extremely boring apartments around, but even so nothing is staying on the market for a particularly long time!

[TLandCruiser]

Jobbo said:

When did that happen?!

A few months ago, very little news coverage and what I did read was the land registry was very profitable and paid dividends back to the govement.

[walm]

TLandCruiser said:

Jobbo said:

When did that happen?!

A few months ago, very little news coverage and what I did read was the land registry was very profitable and paid dividends back to the govement.

I don't think it has happened.
The CONSULTATION on privatisation closed in May, but they haven't sold it... YET!
They will, despite the fact that precisely zero people want them to.

Fortunately we will hand these people more power by exiting the EU, so that's all OK. (Sorry, O/T.)

[stain]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

A rise in interest rates would be the cherry on top.

[Jobbo]

walm said:

TLandCruiser said:

Jobbo said:

When did that happen?!

A few months ago, very little news coverage and what I did read was the land registry was very profitable and paid dividends back to the govement.

I don't think it has happened.
The CONSULTATION on privatisation closed in May, but they haven't sold it... YET!
They will, despite the fact that precisely zero people want them to.

Fortunately we will hand these people more power by exiting the EU, so that's all OK. (Sorry, O/T.)

I'm aware it hasn't happened - hopefully the sell-off won't actually happen but signs are it is inevitable