How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[V6Alfisti]

Femur said:

And yet Houses selling in record time despite worries over EU vote
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/221e0844-365f-11...

Call me cynical, but if there are say 100 homes on the market for sale and 10 sell, then an average is calculated on the time for that property to sell.

However if 3 years ago there were 100 homes on the market and 80 sell, the average could be higher but with far more homes sold.

Also how many of those sold were with discount? and across which areas e.t.c

[Femur]

V6Alfisti said:

Femur said:

And yet Houses selling in record time despite worries over EU vote
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/221e0844-365f-11...

Call me cynical, but if there are say 100 homes on the market for sale and 10 sell, then an average is calculated on the time for that property to sell.

However if 3 years ago there were 100 homes on the market and 80 sell, the average could be higher but with far more homes sold.

Also how many of those sold were with discount? and across which areas e.t.c

It's easy to make up stats and suggest that they might be the truth but is there anything, other than anecdotal evidence, that you can show that backs it up?

[V6Alfisti]

Femur said:

It's easy to make up stats and suggest that they might be the truth but is there anything, other than anecdotal evidence, that you can show that backs it up?

The point being there is no information to back up the figures, so they are meaningless
s. That was anecdotal as I said, but just as good as meaningless data with no supporting information.

There have been a number of articles stating that the average property now sells on average 10-15% below, there are a number of articles showing that volumes are way down. There are a number of articles from RICS saying that demand has collapsed and they are expecting a drop in price.

It is not beyond the wit of man to put a few pieces together.

In fact alot of this is included in the below, this at least covers multiple factors.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 20th June 14:18

[walm]

V6Alfisti said:

Call me cynical, but if there are say 100 homes on the market for sale and 10 sell, then an average is calculated on the time for that property to sell.

However if 3 years ago there were 100 homes on the market and 80 sell, the average could be higher but with far more homes sold.

Also how many of those sold were with discount? and across which areas e.t.c

It's a simple average of the time from listing for sale to listing as SOLD on Rightmove.
Nothing more scientific than that.

I imagine we are still feeling the fallout from the BTL changes as well as severely limited supply.

Either way it is a LOT more than 100 properties.

[V6Alfisti]

walm said:

It's a simple average of the time from listing for sale to listing as SOLD on Rightmove.
Nothing more scientific than that.

I imagine we are still feeling the fallout from the BTL changes as well as severely limited supply.

Either way it is a LOT more than 100 properties.

Of course there are alot more than 100 properties for sale on the market. It was an example.

Exactly my point, it is a great headline but meaningless as you only get the value with associated information.

[Femur]

V6Alfisti said:

walm said:

It's a simple average of the time from listing for sale to listing as SOLD on Rightmove.
Nothing more scientific than that.

I imagine we are still feeling the fallout from the BTL changes as well as severely limited supply.

Either way it is a LOT more than 100 properties.

Of course there are alot more than 100 properties for sale on the market. It was an example.

Exactly my point, it is a great headline but meaningless as you only get the value with associated information.

It's certainly not meaningless, it's a summary of the results. I agree you need more figures to see exactly what's happened but the summary is correct nonetheless. You're being needlessly fatalistic.

[V6Alfisti]

Femur said:

It's certainly not meaningless, it's a summary of the results. I agree you need more figures to see exactly what's happened but the summary is correct nonetheless. You're being needlessly fatalistic.

For the reasons I have described, there is very little value in the information and is just there for a headline. I would give more examples as to how relatively meaningless it is but some people seem to read examples as facts.

It is in reality saying, that homes sell 3 days quicker than the figures recorded in the past month but at an unknown discount and across an unknown period (does this include delayed figures relating to the delayed BTL pre April buy in?) e.t.c e.t.c

I am not sure what value you can take from that.

Either way, we disagree.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 21st June 10:33

[p1stonhead]

All bets are off I think.

This will be interesting.

[anonymous-user]

I am looking to buy a house and my main fear was that there were an awful lot of people waiting on this result. My concern was that if we remained all of these people would suddenly want to buy and prices would go up massively over night and the craziness would continue.

Now I am not sure, if the stock market crashes could these people take their money out and put it in to property?

[EddieSteadyGo]

thelittleegg said:

I'm just about to buy in East London, now wondering if I should stall it.

Let's be honest, no one knows. But I wouldn't be expecting house prices to rise in the short term...

[powerstroke]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Maybe but one of the drivers of rises at the lower end of the market might be ending
I'm thinking the BTL for housing the eastern european migrants.....

[Al U]

Another one in the minority here that is in the middle of buying a house.

I think for people that have already got their houses they are just thinking that if the market does crash they will ride it out until it picks up again. Those that cannot afford to buy yet and are saving up are hoping for a crash.

Then there are people like me that are close to exchange wondering WTF to do now. If the market does crash I hope it does it quickly! Obviously being quite selfish with that statement.

[WCZ]

thelittleegg said:

I'm just about to buy in East London, now wondering if I should stall it.

i'm stalling on a property which I fully intended to buy.

[Al U]

WCZ said:

i'm stalling on a property which I fully intended to buy.

How long are you realistically going to be able to stall for until the markets move or seller decides to put it back on the market? How are you stalling it as well may I ask?

[boxedin]

You're not the only ones now re-thinking / delaying a purchase.

[jonah35]

thelittleegg said:

Barclays down 35%
Some house builders down 40%

House builders are worst affected. Read of that what you will....

[NerveAgent]

I sold my last place in February so I am sitting on some cash and I'm ready to go but I'm not sure what to expect now.

[BRISTOL86]

We bought this time last year at 95%LTV - we were hoping to remortgage next year at 85 or 90% and now I'm seriously worried that this time next year when we come to remortgage we will have nil or negative equity

[walm]

I fixed my mortgage last December for 5 years.
What.
A.
Muppet.

[p1stonhead]

walm said:

I fixed my mortgage last December for 5 years.
What.
A.
Muppet.

I did the same. Im glad I did. Dont want to have to think about any changes. One less uncertainty in life for the time being.