How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
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See Astonzagato's post on the 3 zones someone can be in - it makes good sense.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
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Al U said:
Surprised this thread doesn't stat nearer the top, you would think that most people's highest asset would be a big talking point given the turbulence.
Because said asset is a home which is traded perhaps every 10 years on average (a guess). It isn't listed on an exchange and traded daily so most people don't focus on it. Prices are more a concern for investors not single home owner

Croutons

9,807 posts

165 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.

The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.

It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.

The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.

It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
It's a sad fact that the poor are the ones who get fleeced time and again.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.

The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.

It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
Do you have a link to the 10% / 8% , as that is quite comical if that's how they came to the figure!. Although I doubt anyone held much faith in that figure just because it was from the BoE. People form their own opinions up/down.

However growth slowed markedly since April, with I think represented a monthly growth of 0.2 % I would be surprised if they came back with those figures after seeing April/May numbers, but entirely possible.

Either way, many others including agents, property portfolios, banks e.t.c that were contrary to that view. Probably why Foxtons dipped 30% following the brexit news.


Edited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 23:04

Croutons

9,807 posts

165 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
Do you have a link to the 10% / 8% , as that is quite comical if that's how they came to the figure!. Although I doubt anyone held much faith in that figure just because it was from the BoE. People form their own opinions up/down.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 23:04
Struggling to find anything other than second hand reporting on it- end 1St para here is a pointer, will dig more later if I can

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...

Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...

NRS

22,079 posts

200 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Burwood said:
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.

The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.

It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
It's a sad fact that the poor are the ones who get fleeced time and again.
It doesn't really change the meaning, but I guess in actual terms the rich have had more wealth wiped out, but generally they can adjust, whereas small changes for the poor are much harder to adapt to.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Croutons said:
Struggling to find anything other than second hand reporting on it- end 1St para here is a pointer, will dig more later if I can

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...

Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...
Thanks Croutons, sorry that I asked (I hate lazy buggers that can't search for things themselves!). I was struggling to find the direct source too.

Playing devils advocate, I was wondering if Osborne saw the dramatic slowing of house prices and thought he could blame it on Brexit should it occur.

I think everything is all a little untenable for Osborne right now.

Referring to an earlier post: The point about the 3 tiers of people earlier is no doubt absolutely right, but it's interesting that people I know including BTL'ers, developers e.t.c are now genuinely worried and are talking about the limits of how far they think it will drop and what is serviceable.

I personally don't expect a huge drop this year, more realistically I suspect further reduction on volumes and a modest drop of a few percent. However there will be the odd bargain, there already was before brexit with some properties being about £100k less than the market average. It is 2017 imo that is more likely to be interesting for larger drops, if we see 5-6 months of negative growth that will be the reality check for anyone on the fence about drops and the impact of uncertainly in the market.

walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Foxtons profit warning.
Blames pretty much everything.
Down -18% today and down -35% from Thursday.

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
What's her reasoning?

simong800

2,274 posts

106 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise would have been. This would be good news for first-time buyers, but not so great for existing homeowners.

How might the EU exit affect average house prices?

Year By leaving EU If UK had remained in EU

2016 £277,600 £278,500
2017 £288,900 £290,800
2018 £300,800 £303,000

London

2016 £533,700 £536,000
2017 £559,300 £564,500
2018 £591,700 £599,200

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36537906

V6Alfisti said:
Croutons said:
Struggling to find anything other than second hand reporting on it- end 1St para here is a pointer, will dig more later if I can

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...

Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...
Thanks Croutons, sorry that I asked (I hate lazy buggers that can't search for things themselves!). I was struggling to find the direct source too.

Playing devils advocate, I was wondering if Osborne saw the dramatic slowing of house prices and thought he could blame it on Brexit should it occur.

I think everything is all a little untenable for Osborne right now.

Referring to an earlier post: The point about the 3 tiers of people earlier is no doubt absolutely right, but it's interesting that people I know including BTL'ers, developers e.t.c are now genuinely worried and are talking about the limits of how far they think it will drop and what is serviceable.

I personally don't expect a huge drop this year, more realistically I suspect further reduction on volumes and a modest drop of a few percent. However there will be the odd bargain, there already was before brexit with some properties being about £100k less than the market average. It is 2017 imo that is more likely to be interesting for larger drops, if we see 5-6 months of negative growth that will be the reality check for anyone on the fence about drops and the impact of uncertainly in the market.

Croutons

9,807 posts

165 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
simong800 said:
The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise would have been.
Thanks, thought it was on the fact checker somewhere.

Disingenuous George looks like he's hanging around...

walm

10,609 posts

201 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
okgo said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
What's her reasoning?
She likes money and still thinks it will sell at the current price?

V8RX7

26,765 posts

262 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
okgo said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
What's her reasoning?
If she's like 99% of other women - it's what she feels and hasn't a single fact to back it up. wink

18% is a huge chunk was it comically priced ?

I dropped mine just enough to appear in the lower search band on Rightmove (albeit easier to do in the lower price range than the higher ones)

Dromedary66

1,924 posts

137 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
Sell in 5-10 years when interest rates are higher = No idea, but I wouldn't say positive.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Saturday 25th June 00:15
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.

I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it smile

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
You are of course right - NOTHING worse than a house that's been sat on zoopla for months, after a while people begin to think there is something wrong with it.

NerveAgent

3,293 posts

219 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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A whole bunch of previously sold STC have reappeared in my search area this morning. Not sure how this compares to the norm as I've not previously taken as much notice.

okgo

37,859 posts

197 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
NerveAgent said:
A whole bunch of previously sold STC have reappeared in my search area this morning. Not sure how this compares to the norm as I've not previously taken as much notice.
A few places down my road have been STC in recent weeks, none of them have come back on yet... also nothing in the 1 mile area that's been sold and come back on yet, but I'll be watching - I actually hope it does all go down (a bit) I've got a house to sell but most of our moving money is in the bank waiting...

NRS

22,079 posts

200 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Dromedary66 said:
V6Alfisti said:
Sell in 5-10 years when interest rates are higher = No idea, but I wouldn't say positive.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Saturday 25th June 00:15
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.

I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it smile
Well, from 1989 the inflation adjusted price did not recover until around 2002.

That said as a house owner.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

226 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Dromedary66 said:
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.

I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it smile
I said 5-10 years, there are a few different factors at play now. Including prices being inflated to levels that have never been seen before, with large amounts of that investment from BTL'ers (now there are more and more controls coming in), with incredibly low interest rates that are giving lots of people very cheap money/debt.

The comment was more around the interest rate rises which will probably start to hit around that period. That will not end well given the current debt levels that people have taken on with super inflated prices.

So as I see it, we have the impact now and then another hit when interest rates start to go up in the medium to longer term. Not 10 years of pure drop.. The market will find it's level before then and adjust to its own circumstances.
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