How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Dromedary66 said:
V6Alfisti said:
Sell in 5-10 years when interest rates are higher = No idea, but I wouldn't say positive.
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.Edited by V6Alfisti on Saturday 25th June 00:15
I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it
V6Alfisti said:
Dromedary66 said:
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.
I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it
I said 5-10 years, there are a few different factors at play now. Including prices being inflated to levels that have never been seen before, with large amounts of that investment from BTL'ers (now there are more and more controls coming in), with incredibly low interest rates that are giving lots of people very cheap money/debt.I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it
The comment was more around the interest rate rises which will probably start to hit around that period. That will not end well given the current debt levels that people have taken on with super inflated prices.
So as I see it, we have the impact now and then another hit when interest rates start to go up in the medium to longer term. Not 10 years of pure drop.. The market will find it's level before then and adjust to its own circumstances.
The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise
Burwood said:
But if anything interest rates will fall because stimulating growth/spending is far more important than trying to shore up the currency. Back in the mid 90's a colleague (Australian) was after his first property. He thought values too high then and waited, and waited then moaned about Leasehold titles because in Australia it's all Freehold. In the end he did buy. I think in around 2001. Only after values had doubled from them he first started looking. History can show that those who decide to sit on the fence will end up maying more in the long run because they become obsessed by the decision and find themselves incapable of actually pulling the trigger.
The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise
How much interest rate fall (on houses) do you actually see? Pretty much any decrease now and you don't actually change the interest rates because the banks need to cover the risk of lending large amounts of money. And you think that interest rates will be lower in 5-10 years time than they are now? I don't. I agree generally it's best not to wait too long when buying a house (I didn't), but if I was in the market now for buying for the first time I think I'd sit tight for 1/2 year or so and see what happens with everything. I think there are some big differences between someone who is scared of taking a big step and never buying because of excuses, and indicators from what we are seeing now.The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise
NRS said:
Burwood said:
But if anything interest rates will fall because stimulating growth/spending is far more important than trying to shore up the currency. Back in the mid 90's a colleague (Australian) was after his first property. He thought values too high then and waited, and waited then moaned about Leasehold titles because in Australia it's all Freehold. In the end he did buy. I think in around 2001. Only after values had doubled from them he first started looking. History can show that those who decide to sit on the fence will end up maying more in the long run because they become obsessed by the decision and find themselves incapable of actually pulling the trigger.
The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise
How much interest rate fall (on houses) do you actually see? Pretty much any decrease now and you don't actually change the interest rates because the banks need to cover the risk of lending large amounts of money. And you think that interest rates will be lower in 5-10 years time than they are now? I don't. I agree generally it's best not to wait too long when buying a house (I didn't), but if I was in the market now for buying for the first time I think I'd sit tight for 1/2 year or so and see what happens with everything. I think there are some big differences between someone who is scared of taking a big step and never buying because of excuses, and indicators from what we are seeing now.The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise
Burwood said:
...the same agents report increased enquiry as the vote result removes uncertainty. Life goes on.
The certain thing is that the uncertainty has just begun with so many unknowns for the short term, not to mention possible sentiment change over the long term and less stable money markets...Sure life goes on. It has suddenly become much more interesting...
Hitch said:
Builders and banks taking a kicking on the markets today.
Talk about a kicking !Berkley Group was down 20+ % on Friday and has today fallen another 11%, let alone Barratts which has dropped from 570p to 370p
Foxtons was 30% down on Friday, and another 22% right now
Barclays and RBS fell so quickly today that trading was suspended
Thankyou4calling said:
I was looking in Tonkers area on Saturday (I don't think his castle though) and the first thing the agent asked was why I'm looking now as if to say nobody else much was.
A mate of mine runs an agent in the village in question, he's not reported anything untoward yet.Just had a call from the developer for the plot I reserved, lets just say the price is laughably high and I think the lady calling felt a little ashamed.
The asking price definitely won't be paid and we are mulling over a flat refusal/more realistic price to offer in return that reflects the current risks.
The asking price definitely won't be paid and we are mulling over a flat refusal/more realistic price to offer in return that reflects the current risks.
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