How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

173 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Dromedary66 said:
V6Alfisti said:
Sell in 5-10 years when interest rates are higher = No idea, but I wouldn't say positive.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Saturday 25th June 00:15
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.

I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it smile
Although to be fair, never in the history of recorded figures have we had a bubble like this one.

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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V6Alfisti said:
Dromedary66 said:
Never in the history of recorded figures have average house prices been lower than they were 10 years previously.

I get it that you're currently renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but no need to be bitter about it smile
I said 5-10 years, there are a few different factors at play now. Including prices being inflated to levels that have never been seen before, with large amounts of that investment from BTL'ers (now there are more and more controls coming in), with incredibly low interest rates that are giving lots of people very cheap money/debt.

The comment was more around the interest rate rises which will probably start to hit around that period. That will not end well given the current debt levels that people have taken on with super inflated prices.

So as I see it, we have the impact now and then another hit when interest rates start to go up in the medium to longer term. Not 10 years of pure drop.. The market will find it's level before then and adjust to its own circumstances.
But if anything interest rates will fall because stimulating growth/spending is far more important than trying to shore up the currency. Back in the mid 90's a colleague (Australian) was after his first property. He thought values too high then and waited, and waited then moaned about Leasehold titles because in Australia it's all Freehold. In the end he did buy. I think in around 2001. Only after values had doubled from them he first started looking. History can show that those who decide to sit on the fence will end up maying more in the long run because they become obsessed by the decision and find themselves incapable of actually pulling the trigger.

The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise smile

NRS

22,135 posts

201 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Burwood said:
But if anything interest rates will fall because stimulating growth/spending is far more important than trying to shore up the currency. Back in the mid 90's a colleague (Australian) was after his first property. He thought values too high then and waited, and waited then moaned about Leasehold titles because in Australia it's all Freehold. In the end he did buy. I think in around 2001. Only after values had doubled from them he first started looking. History can show that those who decide to sit on the fence will end up maying more in the long run because they become obsessed by the decision and find themselves incapable of actually pulling the trigger.

The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise smile
How much interest rate fall (on houses) do you actually see? Pretty much any decrease now and you don't actually change the interest rates because the banks need to cover the risk of lending large amounts of money. And you think that interest rates will be lower in 5-10 years time than they are now? I don't. I agree generally it's best not to wait too long when buying a house (I didn't), but if I was in the market now for buying for the first time I think I'd sit tight for 1/2 year or so and see what happens with everything. I think there are some big differences between someone who is scared of taking a big step and never buying because of excuses, and indicators from what we are seeing now.

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
NRS said:
Burwood said:
But if anything interest rates will fall because stimulating growth/spending is far more important than trying to shore up the currency. Back in the mid 90's a colleague (Australian) was after his first property. He thought values too high then and waited, and waited then moaned about Leasehold titles because in Australia it's all Freehold. In the end he did buy. I think in around 2001. Only after values had doubled from them he first started looking. History can show that those who decide to sit on the fence will end up maying more in the long run because they become obsessed by the decision and find themselves incapable of actually pulling the trigger.

The decision is yours, of course but don't get sucked into reading headline waffle. Most property news is based around London and even then, a certain part of London. You don't want to be in a position where banks make mortgages more difficult for first time buyers and you are in effect, locked out. The normal rules of demand and supply apply and whilst there is some sentiment driving short term decisions, nothing has changes otherwise smile
How much interest rate fall (on houses) do you actually see? Pretty much any decrease now and you don't actually change the interest rates because the banks need to cover the risk of lending large amounts of money. And you think that interest rates will be lower in 5-10 years time than they are now? I don't. I agree generally it's best not to wait too long when buying a house (I didn't), but if I was in the market now for buying for the first time I think I'd sit tight for 1/2 year or so and see what happens with everything. I think there are some big differences between someone who is scared of taking a big step and never buying because of excuses, and indicators from what we are seeing now.
There isn't much room to go lower-agreed. I said 'if anything...' Banks don't pass on all cuts because the forward curve is what drives rates plus, they have to offer something to savers otherwise it becomes more expensive to borrow elsewhere. Rates are benign and will be for a long time. I think some banks may fold/get bailed out again. Will se see negative rates. who knows. Short term turmoil in my opinion.

chris7676

2,685 posts

220 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Burwood said:
...the same agents report increased enquiry as the vote result removes uncertainty. Life goes on.
The certain thing is that the uncertainty has just begun with so many unknowns for the short term, not to mention possible sentiment change over the long term and less stable money markets...

Sure life goes on. It has suddenly become much more interesting...

Hitch

6,105 posts

194 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Builders and banks taking a kicking on the markets today. Is the city backing a housing correction on the back of Brexit uncertainty?

walm

10,609 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Hitch said:
Builders and banks taking a kicking on the markets today. Is the city backing a housing correction on the back of Brexit uncertainty?
Not sure if serious.

Hitch

6,105 posts

194 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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walm said:
Hitch said:
Builders and banks taking a kicking on the markets today. Is the city backing a housing correction on the back of Brexit uncertainty?
Not sure if serious.
Fair cop! Seems a very specific kicking though.

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

227 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Hitch said:
Builders and banks taking a kicking on the markets today.
Talk about a kicking !

Berkley Group was down 20+ % on Friday and has today fallen another 11%, let alone Barratts which has dropped from 570p to 370p
Foxtons was 30% down on Friday, and another 22% right now
Barclays and RBS fell so quickly today that trading was suspended

walm

10,609 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Hitch said:
Fair cop! Seems a very specific kicking though.
100% UK consumer exposed with leverage - (both operating and financial) - BOOM!

Whereas say, AZN is mostly selling to USD with some nice GBP costs. No probs...

It's specific because there are specific changes going on.

NomduJour

19,081 posts

259 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Maybe just me, but I'd be sticking an offer like that in anyway if I was seriously interested and something had been on the market for a bit.

walm

10,609 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
NomduJour said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Maybe just me, but I'd be sticking an offer like that in anyway if I was seriously interested and something had been on the market for a bit.
Or you could read a bit and notice he is selling!! smile

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

227 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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walm said:
Or you could read a bit and notice he is selling!! smile
I may be wrong but I think he is saying if he was a potential buyer, then he would be looking to offer 18-20% off, thus it matches the view of the poster/seller that the figure is about right.


walm

10,609 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
walm said:
Or you could read a bit and notice he is selling!! smile
I may be wrong but I think he is saying if he was a potential buyer, then he would be looking to offer 18-20% off, thus it matches the view of the poster/seller that the figure is about right.
Ah OK. Sorry.

okgo

38,001 posts

198 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Could be looking at half price by the time someone has lowballed you on your new price then wink


Thankyou4calling

10,601 posts

173 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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I was looking in Tonkers area on Saturday (I don't think his castle though) and the first thing the agent asked was why I'm looking now as if to say nobody else much was.

okgo

38,001 posts

198 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Thankyou4calling said:
I was looking in Tonkers area on Saturday (I don't think his castle though) and the first thing the agent asked was why I'm looking now as if to say nobody else much was.
A mate of mine runs an agent in the village in question, he's not reported anything untoward yet.

walm

10,609 posts

202 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
okgo said:
A mate of mine runs an agent in the village in question, he's not reported anything untoward yet.
He's too busy making sure existing chains don't fall apart. wink

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

227 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Just had a call from the developer for the plot I reserved, lets just say the price is laughably high and I think the lady calling felt a little ashamed.

The asking price definitely won't be paid and we are mulling over a flat refusal/more realistic price to offer in return that reflects the current risks.


Al U

2,312 posts

131 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Just to give an update on our position. We are going ahead with our purchase, we have thought long and hard about pulling out and decided we would be happier carrying on with the purchase than not.
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