How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Mr Whippy]

Hitch said:

Demand, general public sentiment that house prices only ever go up and government protectionist policy could suggest that periods of stagnation causing a limited correction in real terms may be the new house price crash. House price rebound post-2008 just underlined confidence in the 'system' so everyone still wants to be an owner.

London may indeed be a bubble on a bubble but if they've witnessed 10% growth YoY for the last 15 years will a 20% correction bother anyone who doesn't need to sell now? Probably not, and returning to my first point, that 20% correction just opens up a greater market of hungry buyers able to access virtually free money.

I think people won't see a crash in the price of assets.

They'll see a crash in the buying power of the money in their pocket.

The economy simply won't work if people spend all their money on a roof, food and taxes.

And the more we go down that route of making it sustainable, then all bets are off on the 'value' of anything as we'll be teetering towards a socialist state that'll just take ownership of your house.

[turbobloke]

Reports today of RICS saying that demand has fallen sharply and attributing it to Brexit, one report very early today also mentioned the parallel finding that supply has fallen off a cliff so the impact on prices overall may be marginal (though area-specific as usual) and with volumes down.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/a...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/biggest-ever-drop-ho...

[Al U]

That's probably down to seller's putting plans to move/sell on hold as much as possible where they can.

I am in the middle of buying my first place right now, contracts likely to be exchanged in the next couple of weeks. Made our offer before brexit.

Have been watching the market in the area I am buying like a hawk and as you say, there are so few decent properties at the price point I am looking at that pulling out for me is a bad idea. Also the only properties that are getting reduced are ones that were optimistically priced before brexit in the area I am looking at anyway.

[NerveAgent]

thelittleegg said:

That's an interesting point you make there and my experience supports it. Although there has been a slew of price reductions and obvious lack of interest in properties, equally, I have not seen a single new property of interest come onto the market in my search areas since the referendum. It's been dross in general, whereas I was seeing 1 or 2 interesting places per week come to market pre referendum.

This is pretty much what I've seen.

Also I've noticed not a single one of my saved properties has sold since the referendum.

[simong800]

Interestingly my colleague went to see a place last week - 17 viewings booked in within 3 days of it coming on. Was up at £450k and has gone for £510k. It would seem to confirm that there are still buyers but not much is coming onto the market - it will be interesting to see what this does to prices.....

[p1stonhead]

NerveAgent said:

thelittleegg said:

That's an interesting point you make there and my experience supports it. Although there has been a slew of price reductions and obvious lack of interest in properties, equally, I have not seen a single new property of interest come onto the market in my search areas since the referendum. It's been dross in general, whereas I was seeing 1 or 2 interesting places per week come to market pre referendum.

This is pretty much what I've seen.

Also I've noticed not a single one of my saved properties has sold since the referendum.

Yep round my way too. Basically nothing new coming to the market. But a few price reductions and some old stock sitting around.

[superkartracer]

simong800 said:

Interestingly my colleague went to see a place last week - 17 viewings booked in within 3 days of it coming on. Was up at £450k and has gone for £510k. It would seem to confirm that there are still morons about but not much is coming onto the market - it will be interesting to see what this does to prices.....

How did it sell for 60k more? , is that the way they work these days??

PS. Amended

Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 14th July 15:38

[p1stonhead]

superkartracer said:

simong800 said:

Interestingly my colleague went to see a place last week - 17 viewings booked in within 3 days of it coming on. Was up at £450k and has gone for £510k. It would seem to confirm that there are still morons about but not much is coming onto the market - it will be interesting to see what this does to prices.....

How did it sell for 60k more? , is that the way are work these days??

PS. Amended

Depends on how many people want it. For a time, 20% over asking was quite common in some areas close to me..

[superkartracer]

I assume it states offers over etc? and people bid against each other , like an auction of sorts but for that to work the price must be low(er) .

Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 14th July 15:38

[walm]

superkartracer said:

I assume it states offers over etc? and people bid against each other , like an auction of sorts but for that to work the price must be low(er) .

Have you really never bought a house with someone else making an offer?

It can go any number of ways.
I have had a Dutch Auction twice.

Or the agent just keeps calling saying that the competition has raised their offer - can you beat it.
Like a slow-motion auction where you can't be sure there really is any competitive bid.

[simong800]

superkartracer said:

How did it sell for 60k more? , is that the way they work these days??

PS. Amended

Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 14th July 15:38

Supply and demand

People kept offering more - there aren't many houses about and a lot of people wanted this one I guess! It is a doer upper, needs a total renovation and certainly not in the "ready to move into" category.

[JB!]

made an offer in April, expecting exchange this week/next week.

Had to go a little over asking to beat 7 other offers.

House prices are still nuts round here and showing no signs of slowdown.

[stripy7]

walm said:

Have you really never bought a house with someone else making an offer?

It can go any number of ways.
I have had a Dutch Auction twice.

Or the agent just keeps calling saying that the competition has raised their offer - can you beat it.
Like a slow-motion auction where you can't be sure there really is any competitive bid.

Made worse when the agent knows what your mortgage offer is.

[V6Alfisti]

JB! said:

made an offer in April, expecting exchange this week/next week.

Had to go a little over asking to beat 7 other offers.

House prices are still nuts round here and showing no signs of slowdown.

Where are you JB?

In north west london, I had a week of new properies flooding my inbox. This reduced this week but certainly a change.

[walm]

stripy7 said:

Made worse when the agent knows what your mortgage offer is.

[cough]Alexander Hall?[/cough]
Did you say "conflict of interest"? Never heard of it...

[stripy7]

Some parts of Kent- Margate in particular are still doing very well.

[stripy7]

walm said:

[cough]Alexander Hall?[/cough]
Did you say "conflict of interest"? Never heard of it...

All as bad as each other. They don't even have to be connected to your financial advisor. Common trick is to just insist on seeing your bank offer in principle correspondence "to ensure your are a serious bidder". They also like to quiz your surveyor when they collect keys. Never tell an agent your ceiling- they don't act for you, they represent the seller, people always seem to forget this.

[JB!]

V6Alfisti said:

JB! said:

made an offer in April, expecting exchange this week/next week.

Had to go a little over asking to beat 7 other offers.

House prices are still nuts round here and showing no signs of slowdown.

Where are you JB?

In north west london, I had a week of new properies flooding my inbox. This reduced this week but certainly a change.

Milton Keynes

[anonymous-user]

kiethton said:

House price growth is typically linked to the wealth effect:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wealtheffect.a...

Which in turn increases consumer and thus business confidence. Typically coincides with loosening credit conditions by banks etc precipitating growth.

Lower house prices, more people save/cut back and thus don't spend on goods or services

All true but conversely people paying eye watering rent, mortgage and stamp duty every time they move don't spend on goods or services either. The wealth effect from rising asset prices is of little comfort to people who can't save anything month to month due to the cost of housing.

[superkartracer]

walm said:

superkartracer said:

I assume it states offers over etc? and people bid against each other , like an auction of sorts but for that to work the price must be low(er) .

Have you really never bought a house with someone else making an offer?

It can go any number of ways.
I have had a Dutch Auction twice.

Or the agent just keeps calling saying that the competition has raised their offer - can you beat it.
Like a slow-motion auction where you can't be sure there really is any competitive bid.

Never , i'd simply tell them to stick it . All the places we've purchased it's been a case of paying the asking price , the seller was happy they got their price and held the house regardless of other offers , i guess if you deal with aholes it can be expected ( or the price states offers over ) .

I was lucky ( worked hard ) in finding my dream house at a young age so really won't move again, and we've been here 15 years , and glad as it sounds a nightmare ha ha.