How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
At last, somebody other than me that sees this! Sick of hearing how wonderful the system is in Scotland, they invented this sealed bids, offers over shenanigans. If you pull out and they can be arsed to chase you then you might get stung for a small charge after years of letter writing and wrangling.
In all honesty, imho, a system that takes the best of both bits would be ideal. I mean, how hard would it be to create a system where you can only offer an amount for a house when you know for sure you have the ability to pay?It's not like people pop out for a walk and suddenly get the urge to buy a house, it's usually a fairly planned occurrence.
Regulating the whole surveying and valuation corruption/skimming debacle would help too. All this could be done by the seller in advance and hey presto we'd have a system where somebody who has the proven funds can offer on something he/she is fairly sure what they are buying. A tiny deposit (to be returned in the event of discovering the multi story going up next door) would also prevent a lot of bs.
It's so simple it would surely only not be able to be squared away if there were powerful vested interests who make a living out of all this s
te preventing it...............hmmmmm???
In all honesty, imho, a system that takes the best of both bits would be ideal. I mean, how hard would it be to create a system where you can only offer an amount for a house when you know for sure you have the ability to pay?It's not like people pop out for a walk and suddenly get the urge to buy a house, it's usually a fairly planned occurrence.
Regulating the whole surveying and valuation corruption/skimming debacle would help too. All this could be done by the seller in advance and hey presto we'd have a system where somebody who has the proven funds can offer on something he/she is fairly sure what they are buying. A tiny deposit (to be returned in the event of discovering the multi story going up next door) would also prevent a lot of bs.
It's so simple it would surely only not be able to be squared away if there were powerful vested interests who make a living out of all this s
te preventing it...............hmmmmm???Twilkes said:
The exchange/completion thing isn't actually that different in Scotland - the house we bought, we could have pulled out three weeks before buying, more than a month after the offer went in; and the flat we sold, the buyer could have pulled out the day before the keys were handed over.
The whole thing about 'offer accepted, you gotta buy it' is a myth - a mortgage application generally won't start processing until the offer has been accepted, and the solicitor won't close the sale until they know you can pay for it.
edit - the Conclusion of Missives is like exchanging contracts: https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/...
The whole thing about 'offer accepted, you gotta buy it' is a myth - a mortgage application generally won't start processing until the offer has been accepted, and the solicitor won't close the sale until they know you can pay for it.
edit - the Conclusion of Missives is like exchanging contracts: https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/...
Edited by Twilkes on Friday 15th July 17:49
V8RX7 said:
I was a Land Buyer and had agreed a deal over months of negotiations and we were ready to sign.
The Group MD said the buying parameters (increased profit margins) had now changed and wanted £300k knocked off.
I put my job on the line and refused point blank to have anything to do with it which resulted in a stunned silence in the meeting - my MD ended up taking over the deal.
A land buyer with morals? I am guessing you didn't last long. What are you doing now?The Group MD said the buying parameters (increased profit margins) had now changed and wanted £300k knocked off.
I put my job on the line and refused point blank to have anything to do with it which resulted in a stunned silence in the meeting - my MD ended up taking over the deal.
MrNoisy said:
In all honesty, imho, a system that takes the best of both bits would be ideal. I mean, how hard would it be to create a system where you can only offer an amount for a house when you know for sure you have the ability to pay?It's not like people pop out for a walk and suddenly get the urge to buy a house, it's usually a fairly planned occurrence.
Regulating the whole surveying and valuation corruption/skimming debacle would help too. All this could be done by the seller in advance and hey presto we'd have a system where somebody who has the proven funds can offer on something he/she is fairly sure what they are buying. A tiny deposit (to be returned in the event of discovering the multi story going up next door) would also prevent a lot of bs.
It's so simple it would surely only not be able to be squared away if there were powerful vested interests who make a living out of all this ste preventing it...............hmmmmm???
Sounds a bit like Norway.Regulating the whole surveying and valuation corruption/skimming debacle would help too. All this could be done by the seller in advance and hey presto we'd have a system where somebody who has the proven funds can offer on something he/she is fairly sure what they are buying. A tiny deposit (to be returned in the event of discovering the multi story going up next door) would also prevent a lot of bs.
It's so simple it would surely only not be able to be squared away if there were powerful vested interests who make a living out of all this s
te preventing it...............hmmmmm???Seller pays for a home evaluation which all prospective buyers get, saying the condition etc. It's up to the buyers to check the details to see if there is problems. The buyer can only come back if something goes wrong that the seller lied about/ couldn't reasonably know about.
If you are a buyer you get an amount approved in the bank for a mortgage so you can bid on any houses up to that value.
For the actual process everyone goes to the same visiting, which is normally 1 hour in an evening. So seller only needs to "prepare" the house once, not each time people want to visit, saving them time. There is then an open bidding round where everyone is informed of the price by text, or often they call you if you are actually bidding as they check if you want to raise your bid. The auction stops at 12 lunchtime, unless there are more bids which move it another 5 minutes later until no more bids. Then the seller can accept the price or not.
The agent will have checked those who want to bid to see their mortgage limit so there is no "accidental" bidding on something you cannot afford. I think if you do pull out you have to cover the costs of the other person, but not 100% sure on the details.
Advantages are must less faffing around waiting, and no last minute pulling out. Disadvantages are it encourages prices up since you can see bids etc., and you have to decide quickly - no waiting for a few weeks to see if something better turns up.
system is nz/australia. you have the funds pre arranged. the offer is subject to survey only, not finance on the basis its so bloody easy to get money and if you can't, well you're in trouble. if offer accepted you pay a deposit, usually 10% there and then. No fking around. the system works well. if the survey picks up something you negotiate but you can't back out because of a few loose roof tiles.
king around. the system works well. if the survey picks up something you negotiate but you can't back out because of a few loose roof tiles.Saw this doomy prediction earlier; French bank Société Générale say that "London property prices could fall by more than 30% in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and may halve in the most expensive parts of the city... We see a classic housing bubble in London and Brexit as the trigger for the correction … Given the current ratio of prices to incomes in London, a price correction of even 40-50% in the most expensive London boroughs does not seem impossible".
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brex...
I can't see such a correction myself, though we still don't really know what the outcome of Brexit will be. One point though regarding London property is that if the value of the pound stays low then UK property will look cheaper to those buying from abroad...
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brex...
I can't see such a correction myself, though we still don't really know what the outcome of Brexit will be. One point though regarding London property is that if the value of the pound stays low then UK property will look cheaper to those buying from abroad...
XJ40 said:
Saw this doomy prediction earlier; French bank Société Générale say that "London property prices could fall by more than 30% in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and may halve in the most expensive parts of the city... We see a classic housing bubble in London and Brexit as the trigger for the correction … Given the current ratio of prices to incomes in London, a price correction of even 40-50% in the most expensive London boroughs does not seem impossible".
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brex...
I can't see such a correction myself, though we still don't really know what the outcome of Brexit will be. One point though regarding London property is that if the value of the pound stays low then UK property will look cheaper to those buying from abroad...
I cant see it happening either. There is too much demand which will swoop in if that happens, and prices will simply shoot up again. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brex...
I can't see such a correction myself, though we still don't really know what the outcome of Brexit will be. One point though regarding London property is that if the value of the pound stays low then UK property will look cheaper to those buying from abroad...
I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.
What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.
p1stonhead said:
I cant see it happening either. There is too much demand which will swoop in if that happens, and prices will simply shoot up again.
I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.
What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.
Wait till the City job cuts start to filter through, how many could (or would want to) still buy if their monthly pay cheque stops coming through?I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.
What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.
RYH64E said:
p1stonhead said:
I cant see it happening either. There is too much demand which will swoop in if that happens, and prices will simply shoot up again.
I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.
What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.
Wait till the City job cuts start to filter through, how many could (or would want to) still buy if their monthly pay cheque stops coming through?I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.
What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.
p1stonhead said:
Well yes of course I suppose if we head back into a major recession thats different. I just hope we wont!
Regardless of whether we go into recession or not (and I think we will) there's likely to be more highly paid City based jobs relocated back into the EU than the other way round, that will probably have an effect upon demand. There will also be a lot of justifiable uncertainty for people who's job might be at risk, the last thing they will want is to take on a large financial commitment at a time when prices are predicted to fall and their income might disappear. The financial sector is one most likely to be affected by Brexit, and a lot of it is London based.It's not just the City, O&G as well.
I am lucky to still be in my job (just) but some of the agents showing us around have been saying that they have a lot of houses to let as a lot of the O&G guys lost their jobs and couldn't afford the rent.
Ok, the sales market is likely different, but I don't think a lot of the O&G workers who have been made redundant are showing up in the employment figures as they have savings. However, I suspect many will struggle to eek those savings out until the industry picks up.
Apparently it's hundreds of thousands of people... Though they'll be mostly concentrated in and around Aberdeen (where prices had got ridiculous) and perhaps Surrey (where we are) to a lesser extent.
I am lucky to still be in my job (just) but some of the agents showing us around have been saying that they have a lot of houses to let as a lot of the O&G guys lost their jobs and couldn't afford the rent.
Ok, the sales market is likely different, but I don't think a lot of the O&G workers who have been made redundant are showing up in the employment figures as they have savings. However, I suspect many will struggle to eek those savings out until the industry picks up.
Apparently it's hundreds of thousands of people... Though they'll be mostly concentrated in and around Aberdeen (where prices had got ridiculous) and perhaps Surrey (where we are) to a lesser extent.
Yeah but no but yeah...
The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah...
The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
Commuting in from my part of Suffolk costs £1k per month for the rail journey plus parking at another £200, say £14k of take home pay per annum, I guess some people would rather spend the money on mortgage payments rather than travel costs. Personally, I wouldn't want to live in London even if prices halved, I much prefer living in the sticks and having a 10 mile B road commute to work.The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
RYH64E said:
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah...
The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
Commuting in from my part of Suffolk costs £1k per month for the rail journey plus parking at another £200, say £14k of take home pay per annum, I guess some people would rather spend the money on mortgage payments rather than travel costs. Personally, I wouldn't want to live in London even if prices halved, I much prefer living in the sticks and having a 10 mile B road commute to work.The thing is with markets that people always SAY they would buy if it dropped 20%. But then when it drops 30%, they think it will drop another 10%, so they don't. Then it drops some more and they start to read all the doom and gloom articles that "the asset class is over" or some such and they start thinking that some other investment for the medium terms makes more sense. Bear markets tend to have three phases - a sharp fall, a rebound and then a long drawn out decline. It's only when people have given up that it finds its low.
That said, I think London property is a bit different. There are plenty of people renting who are desperate to buy - and with the cost of renting so high compared with owning, they will want to switch.
What mystifies me more is how few people move out. I get the 20-somethings with no kids. It's the 30-somethings that I don't really understand. Bringing up small kids in central London with a huge mortgage, bad schools, in a shoebox? I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Plenty of places on the periphery that are not silly money and commutable.
Also how few companies move out.
princeperch said:
even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..
No, it only takes me 20 minutes, maybe 25 if the traffic is really bad...RYH64E said:
princeperch said:
even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..
No, it only takes me 20 minutes, maybe 25 if the traffic is really bad...Regarding moving out from London, I do don't know why more don't do it. I live in Beds and it's a half hour journey from my nearest train station to King's Cross (though I don't do the journey myself any more, work in Hert's these days). There has been something of a London influx here that has pushed up prices somewhat (based only on annecdotal evidence really), but it still looks very cheap next to London prices...
walm said:
I think he meant door-to-door for someone heading into London.
I know what he meant.On a good day it's 1 1/2 hours from home to Liverpool Street assuming you get dropped off at the station and there's no rail replacement service running, though to put that into perspective the same journey to LST would take at least 45 minutes from my old zone 4 London address including 30 minutes + on the hell that is the london Underground.
XJ40 said:
Regarding moving out from London, I do don't know why more don't do it.I live in Beds and it's a half hour journey from my nearest train station to King's Cross (though I don't do the journey myself any more, work in Hert's these days). There has been something of a London influx here that has pushed up prices somewhat (based only on annecdotal evidence really), but it still looks very cheap next to London prices...
For the South East certainly at the moment, it would be suicide because of this;https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=souithwrn+rail&a...
princeperch said:
even if the journey goes well you are looking at 3.5 hours or more a day for that sort of commute. I think I would kill myself if I had to do it, which is one of the main reasons I live in London in a modest house rather than living in something pretty spacious outside of the smoke..
I'm 1hr 10min from my front door to desk (reliably - and an hour if I'm lucky / cut it fine) - so more like 2hr 20mins of my day. The upside? I have a 7,000sqft house, tennis court, swimming pool, 3 garages and 4 acres. I can't see another house - just trees and fields (most of which I own). I'm 8 miles (15 mins) from a university town that has art, theatre, music and shopping (which makes it more accessible than admittedly better facilities if I lived in London). There are a myriad of schools that are as good, if not better, than London (that don't have stupid waiting lists / entrance requirements).
If I sold and bought in Chelsea, I'd get a 1,500sqft 3 bed terrace (and a 30 min commute).
On the train, I read and catch up with stuff that I'd spend time at home doing. So I'm not sure I lose much time out of my life. Actually, it is nice to have a moment in my day when I can put my headphones on and read the paper without any distractions.
The only downside is if I want to go out drinking or eating in the evening. A taxi home isn't an option.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff