How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Rovinghawk]

RYH64E said:

It might pay more if you're an employee, work for yourself and it matters not where you're based (and the money's better).

Probably true. I work for myself and live in a place which in London would be completely out of reach (big place, secluded, garages, outbuildings, extensive gardens, orchard, etc. Why on earth would I give that up for a cramped little flat near a dirty tube station?

Those who live there/love it are welcome to it.

[Hitch]

Is there not a 'Cockwaving and regional bias in house prices' thread for all of this? Where is the doom mongering on house prices?!

[fido]

battered said:

The moment millions of Londoners actually work out that Leeds/Manchester/wherever is a nice place to live and actually move there, the benefit's gone.

Sorry, but I just split my sides laughing.

[Mr Whippy]

p1stonhead said:

XJ40 said:

Saw this doomy prediction earlier; French bank Société Générale say that "London property prices could fall by more than 30% in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and may halve in the most expensive parts of the city... We see a classic housing bubble in London and Brexit as the trigger for the correction … Given the current ratio of prices to incomes in London, a price correction of even 40-50% in the most expensive London boroughs does not seem impossible".
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/18/brex...

I can't see such a correction myself, though we still don't really know what the outcome of Brexit will be. One point though regarding London property is that if the value of the pound stays low then UK property will look cheaper to those buying from abroad...

I cant see it happening either. There is too much demand which will swoop in if that happens, and prices will simply shoot up again.

I know at least 10 people personally who cant buy now but could with a 30% drop. Im sure many others do too.

What will happen to prices when every one of them can suddenly buy? Surely a rush and then prices rising again to meet demand.

The 10 people that you know can't buy but could with a 30% price drop, might just hold off at 25%, or 30%, because they might see 35% as a potential, or 40%...

This is the issue with a bear market, it's completely inverse to a bull market... prices are pushed lower by an expectation they'll be cheaper tomorrow, and that then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And there is no way to stimulate that end of the market with things like help to buy or lower interest rates.

[V6Alfisti]

The number of new instructions/reductions tailed off towards the end of last week.

However this week, my god. Flooded yet again with new properties I haven't seen before and still a number of sizeable reductions.

I am currently looking at my gmail and the entire page is full of updates, many containing 4-9 new properties in each.

Suspect there are a few hoping they can sell off their property, whilst talking the market up...before the people who are still looking at buying fully realise the potential risks.

[Pork]

gibbon said:

Because i like my job, like living in london, currently earn enough to enjoy my life and make provisions for later life, and in the future will enjoy living in the country and probably will enjoy having a home both in london and in the country.

Edited by gibbon on Tuesday 19th July 09:21

To be fair to the anti-London brigade, you're not really average London. You have a sensible sized house in zone two and a flat in, what sounds like, a nice area with lots around it and a great commute to work. Who wouldn't enjoy that in their early 30s?

That's very different to paying through the nose to live in a tiny flat in zone 4, 5 or 6 and still spend the best part of an hour getting to work and the traumas that can bring.

But alas, you pays your money and takes your pick.

[princeperch]

"The convenience of the Live/work units allows you to work the hours you need without the time and the expense of travelling around"

if only life were that simple. you'll need to be working plenty of hours to pay your enormous mortgage to afford to pay for your worker bee shoebox.


http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/41504679#...

[z4RRSchris]

thelittleegg said:

The 3 bed flat in East London (Z3) that I agreed to buy pre-referendum got down-valued 10% by the mortgage valuation. The vendor has agreed to split the difference 50/50.

My solicitor said the same thing has happened a few times in the last few weeks, it sounds like the mortgage valuations are being super conservative and vendors are renegotiating as a result, rather than going back to market.

As above, i sold a unit last few weeks, asking £4m, agreed at £3.5m. mortgage val came back at £3m. we knocked £100k off to get the deal done at £3.4m.

mortgage down vals are getting common.

[227bhp]

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

[Ilovejapcrap]

227bhp said:

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

Not round ere (East Yorkshire )

[Burwood]

What, so the sky didn't fall post brexit? I was reading above that buyers were bidding 30% under and it was a blood bath. With record low mortgage rates and no sign of material rate rises for a very long time, the main property market has one direction. Up.

[V6Alfisti]

Burwood said:

What, so the sky didn't fall post brexit? I was reading above that buyers were bidding 30% under and it was a blood bath. With record low mortgage rates and no sign of material rate rises for a very long time, the main property market has one direction. Up.

The property market is a real mixed bag, as are the numbers that are flying around.

I read this on BBC news today, then hidden away in their live update was a link to a report stating a far less rosy picture.

The last land registry also showed a nationwide decline of a very minor 0.2% but with bigger falls across parts of London (from memory).

There are some points that remain consistent such as volumes have fallen dramatically from already low numbers.

Also in areas I continue to look in, I am seeing some quite astonishing drops. With a style/size/location of 1 bed flat that was selling relatively quickly due to sub £400k pricing at approx £380k, this style/size/location of flat are now coming on at sub £320k.

A terraced 3 bed property in Cricklewood (admittedly not pretty) just dropped from £475k to £400k today.

Then in terms of brexit re-negotiations, I suspect that was a mixed bag in terms of what proceeded. I have heard of lots of 10% average drops (some accepted, some not), including the mortgage valuations dropping.

I am personally seeing much 'keener' pricing, but the properties still aren't shifting. I think there is a lot of complexity hidden away in some rosy looking figures.

[NerveAgent]

Things I've noticed from my search 2 months before and after the referendum in south Manchester

1) The amount of new listings has halved since brexit, maybe more.
2) The really desirable properties/areas are being snapped up for full asking price.
3) Everything else doesn't seem to be selling
4) Loads are coming back on after previously being SSTC, although I'm not sure what the norm is for this

[227bhp]

Ilovejapcrap said:

227bhp said:

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

Not round ere (East Yorkshire )

'Overall' means an average taken from the whole country, not just one specific area.

[Ilovejapcrap]

227bhp said:

Ilovejapcrap said:

227bhp said:

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

Not round ere (East Yorkshire )

'Overall' means an average taken from the whole country, not just one specific area.

No st.

My point was kind of pointing at I've not seen it, I suspect it's London TBH

[z4RRSchris]

Savills have published their PCL forecasts. Interesting that they have got rid of the new build forecast they had.

The 2019/2020/2021 figures are complete bks, and they have done a 6 year forecast this time because they have to show 20% growth somewhere.

2014 = -0.4 - they predicted positive
2015 = -3.3 - they predicted positive

2016 = -9
2017 = 0
2018 = 0
2019 = 8 lol
2020 = 5 lol
2021 = 6.5 lol

[p1stonhead]

I thought you said demand for your prime development a few pages back is through the roof?

[red_slr]

Nothing new coming on which is a bit odd but there you go. Prices at all time high round here. A lot of new build going on and I think this is dragging older houses up in value as a very small 3 bed semi on a new build is now £250-£275k. 10 years ago even at the peak similar houses were £180k ish.

Good size detached 4/5 beds are £500k.

The 10 year old 3 bed new builds have suddenly gone from 165-175 to 210-230 in the space of 2 years.
4/5 beds which were £280-£340 new in 2005/6/7 are now high 300s low 400s, again 18-24 months for that jump.

[Thankyou4calling]

Without saying which area you're referring to it's a pointless post i think.

[Burwood]

Thankyou4calling said:

Without saying which area you're referring to it's a pointless post i think.

he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.