How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[NerveAgent]

Things I've noticed from my search 2 months before and after the referendum in south Manchester

1) The amount of new listings has halved since brexit, maybe more.
2) The really desirable properties/areas are being snapped up for full asking price.
3) Everything else doesn't seem to be selling
4) Loads are coming back on after previously being SSTC, although I'm not sure what the norm is for this

[227bhp]

Ilovejapcrap said:

227bhp said:

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

Not round ere (East Yorkshire )

'Overall' means an average taken from the whole country, not just one specific area.

[Ilovejapcrap]

227bhp said:

Ilovejapcrap said:

227bhp said:

House prices (overall) up by 6.9% this last 12 months say figures released today.

Not round ere (East Yorkshire )

'Overall' means an average taken from the whole country, not just one specific area.

No st.

My point was kind of pointing at I've not seen it, I suspect it's London TBH

[z4RRSchris]

Savills have published their PCL forecasts. Interesting that they have got rid of the new build forecast they had.

The 2019/2020/2021 figures are complete bks, and they have done a 6 year forecast this time because they have to show 20% growth somewhere.

2014 = -0.4 - they predicted positive
2015 = -3.3 - they predicted positive

2016 = -9
2017 = 0
2018 = 0
2019 = 8 lol
2020 = 5 lol
2021 = 6.5 lol

[p1stonhead]

I thought you said demand for your prime development a few pages back is through the roof?

[red_slr]

Nothing new coming on which is a bit odd but there you go. Prices at all time high round here. A lot of new build going on and I think this is dragging older houses up in value as a very small 3 bed semi on a new build is now £250-£275k. 10 years ago even at the peak similar houses were £180k ish.

Good size detached 4/5 beds are £500k.

The 10 year old 3 bed new builds have suddenly gone from 165-175 to 210-230 in the space of 2 years.
4/5 beds which were £280-£340 new in 2005/6/7 are now high 300s low 400s, again 18-24 months for that jump.

[Thankyou4calling]

Without saying which area you're referring to it's a pointless post i think.

[Burwood]

Thankyou4calling said:

Without saying which area you're referring to it's a pointless post i think.

he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.

[Thankyou4calling]

Burwood said:

he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.

I was referring to the posts by red sir.

[Burwood]

Thankyou4calling said:

Burwood said:

he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.

I was referring to the posts by red sir.

you found the quote button

[z4RRSchris]

p1stonhead said:

I thought you said demand for your prime development a few pages back is through the roof?

very site specific, two demand v good at full asking, one having to give big discounts.

[Randy Winkman]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/harrods-fine...

I know it's only a tiny part of the market but this story about Harrods Fine Wines Department closing says:

"But it appears the champagne bubble has burst. Property prices in the area are plunging, foreign buyers have all but vanished and a planning application lodged with the council reveals Harrods proposes converting the department into an evening restaurant."

[Burwood]

Randy Winkman said:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/harrods-fine...

I know it's only a tiny part of the market but this story about Harrods Fine Wines Department closing says:

"But it appears the champagne bubble has burst. Property prices in the area are plunging, foreign buyers have all but vanished and a planning application lodged with the council reveals Harrods proposes converting the department into an evening restaurant."

Did you know that planning is sympathetic if you are losing money on the status quo. In other words, complete tosh to support their intentions.

[Hitch]

And it is hardly going to be the Harrods Soup Kitchen For The Great Unwashed is it?!

[tight fart]

Just taken a property off the market in sth Devon as it seems dead down there, a nice 3 bed detatched in a good position that has only had 1 sale in 5 years in the close. Ours went on at £389k (original not extended), within days next door and next door but one went on as well, at £490k (nice extension) and £425k (small ext)in 6 months I think we were the only one to have viewings, 3 max.
Thankfully we had an offer to rent so we will try again when the tennants leave.
Houses near home (Epping) seem to be selling within days at silly prices, and anything on the crossrail route seem a gold mine. (Friends brought in Brentwood, gone up 25% in 18 months)

[V6Alfisti]

It has taken a while to filter through the reports, as they often represent transaction from months before, rather than more recent sale prices.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the major news outlets aren't reporting on it.

However the headline is that London is seen as the 'underperformer' with an average drop of 2.5% (many estate agents reporting 10% as typical in some areas). Apparently the biggest fall since 2012.

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/first-uk-house-p...

[Matt p]

4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)

[RYH64E]

Matt p said:

4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)

There's definitely going to be some inflation in the pipeline due to currency devaluation, business to business prices are up around 10% in my industry and those kind of increases filter through eventually. Imported goods in the shops will be showing similar rises any time soon.

[tomw2000]

turbobloke said:

tomw2000 said:

turbobloke said:

It may be that my ISP is on a tea break but the link to that Ropsley property is now loading much slower than before, presumably quite a few PHers on this thread are taking a look? Best of luck with the sale tomw2000

Update: I never expected folk to queue round the corner to view it but we've had 7 viewings.

Most of which were tyre kickers imo.

But now have 1 offer at asking price....let you know how that pans out. I'm realistic about such things. But you never know. Might work out. Fingers Crossed.

Sounds promising, best of luck.

After a mere 15mths the sale completes this Friday (exchanged last Friday). I always thought it'd take over a year....but it's good it's finally happened.

[Burwood]

RYH64E said:

Matt p said:

4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)

There's definitely going to be some inflation in the pipeline due to currency devaluation, business to business prices are up around 10% in my industry and those kind of increases filter through eventually. Imported goods in the shops will be showing similar rises any time soon.

agreed- all imported furniture of which there is a huge amount is all going up at least 10%. Electronics-up, white goods.