How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[trowelhead]

mondeoman said:

You can't be mobile when you have kids, not if you give a st about them.

Yep that's true. But plenty who don't have kids yet too.

[gibbon]

trowelhead said:

I'll give you an example. I recently bought a house. We moved in - but I decided the area is not for me, so I am renting it out.

The rent i receive covers the rent i'm paying (for the rental property we just moved into - in an area i love). The capital is also being paid down monthly by the tenant.

If i fancy trying another location in a year or two, i'll be off with 30 days notice. No hassle. At this stage in my life i highly value mobility.

I'll probably buy at some point, but it will be an emotional decision, when we have settled on an area we want to stay for 5-10 years.

The general "buy a house it's better" is not always for everyone. If you are sure you'll live in the same area for 20 years and the sums work - then go for it.

This cant really work, when you take tax into consideration, particularly with the currently changing tax relief system. Its either horribly inefficient, or you arnt telling the tax man the whole story.

[RYH64E]

trowelhead said:

The rent i receive covers the rent i'm paying (for the rental property we just moved into - in an area i love). The capital is also being paid down monthly by the tenant.

Hope you're declaring the rent you receive and paying the appropriate rate of tax.

Received rent is taxable, rent paid isn't an allowable expense, so even if the amounts were the same there'd still be a significant shortfall once the taxman had taken his cut.

[anonymous-user]

Tonker, I know things are not good right now but please re-write that so that it makes sense

[TheLordJohn]

I think the Government have proven they'll do whatever it takes to keep the market propped up.
I'm hoping that this leads to the stamp duty changes being addressed sometime soon...!

[Pork]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That's basically what I think is the biggest risk of entering the market today. There are a lot of massive risks at the moment....the impact of the risk materialising might all become irrelevant because of inflation, who knows?

[N-TY4C]

98elise said:

trowelhead said:

mondeoman said:

and next year you Have to spend 50k on rental, and the year after, and the year after, and so on. Over 25 years that's 1.25m. And you've got sweet fa to show for it.

Unless you invested the money you'd have used as a deposit in something like investment property, a business or shares for 25 years

£312,500 (25% deposit) compounded for 25 years at 7% pa is almost £1.7m. That amount invested would more than pay your rent forever.

Where are you getting 7% returns for 25 years?

For me owning a house long term is a no brainer. I bought our house 18 years ago, and I recently paid it off. I now have a free shelter for the rest of my life.

Unless your wife leaves you and takes half.

[p1stonhead]

N-TY4C said:

98elise said:

trowelhead said:

mondeoman said:

and next year you Have to spend 50k on rental, and the year after, and the year after, and so on. Over 25 years that's 1.25m. And you've got sweet fa to show for it.

Unless you invested the money you'd have used as a deposit in something like investment property, a business or shares for 25 years

£312,500 (25% deposit) compounded for 25 years at 7% pa is almost £1.7m. That amount invested would more than pay your rent forever.

Where are you getting 7% returns for 25 years?

For me owning a house long term is a no brainer. I bought our house 18 years ago, and I recently paid it off. I now have a free shelter for the rest of my life.

Unless your wife leaves you and takes half.

Or you get hit by a bus. Or you get cancer. Or the world ends. Or an infinite amount of other irrelevant things for this discussion.

[TheLordJohn]

p1stonhead said:

Or you get hit by a bus. Or you get cancer. Or the world ends. Or an infinite amount of other irrelevant things for this discussion.

I'd be willing to put very good money on the % of marriages breaking up are much, much higher than the % chance of the things you've put happening to you.

[p1stonhead]

TheLordJohn said:

p1stonhead said:

Or you get hit by a bus. Or you get cancer. Or the world ends. Or an infinite amount of other irrelevant things for this discussion.

I'd be willing to put very good money on the % of marriages breaking up are much, much higher than the % chance of the things you've put happening to you.

And its still not relevent to buying vs renting. You will still end up with half of everything if renting.

[tight fart]

It's funny how on here the wife leaves you, I bet on mumsnet it's "he run of with a young tart".

[turbobloke]

[mike74]

The Daily Express...

Oh dear.

[turbobloke]

mike74 said:

The Daily Express...

Oh dear.

Shooting the messenger...

Oh dear.

If you were to read the article behind the headline, you would see that the claim isn't due to the Daily Express editorial team, but from the Office for National Statistics:

"The typical UK property value was £220,000 in December, a £15,000 increase compared with a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics."

In effect, the information provided has nothing to do with the Express, they merely reported what ONS have shown in their official data. Any complaints should go to ONS.

HTH

[Yipper]

Quite a few new places are seeing a massive boom at the moment. Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes are rising around 10-20% right now.

[mx-6]

Yipper said:

Quite a few new places are seeing a massive boom at the moment. Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes are rising around 10-20% right now.

I live in Bed's and have noticed rises in those places, only anecdotally though, I haven't looked at the figures. They have been cheap locations relative to the surrounding area, particularly Luton which has a bad reputation amongst most.

I used to live in the town of Biggleswade and that seems to have gone up a lot too, a lot of new build has been going on there.

[mike74]

Well all I'm seeing in areas I'm familiar with is houses sat languishing on the market for a year or more... 4 even 5 years in some cases.

Perhaps someone should tell these vendors that their houses are now worth another £15k then they can adjust their asking prices accordingly, I'm guessing the reason they've failed to sell so far is because they're just too damn cheap.

[turbobloke]

It's the national average chicken soup thing.

[z4RRSchris]

£6.35m deal today. Buyer hasn't even seen the flat

[Pork]

Yipper said:

Quite a few new places are seeing a massive boom at the moment. Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes are rising around 10-20% right now.

Sounds unbelievable, but I believe it.

We're in Herts near the Beds border and prices here are just going mental. ste is coming on the market for ludicrous prices, and selling. It was £430-450/sq ft not long ago, things coming on at £500 or even £600 sq ft and selling. EAs must be having the time of their lives spinning the line "not much coming on, you have to buy what you can"