Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
For all thread followers hanging off every word of the latest ENSO advisory 
here is an extract from today's communiqué:
here is an extract from today's communiqué:Bulletin said:
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event.
Models schmoodels but this is what the warmista faith is hanging on...a strong El Nino to end the pesky pause, with natural warming from ocean-atmosphere coupling passed off via lack of explanation as manmadeup warming i.e. any old warming which is desperately needed to keep the lie alive. Unfortunately the blessed models aren't keeping to the script - it's difficult to torture related data into confession - and a weak El Nino is looking more and more likely. We won't know until it happens, but it's good to know that at least for now mother nature is keeping pressure up on the faithful.turbobloke said:
For all thread followers hanging off every word of the latest ENSO advisory here is an extract from today's communiqué:
there will be no el nino,super or otherwise .the oceanic cycles such as the pdo,amo,nao are either in or entering their negative cooler phases. for the uk this should mean cooling seas resulting in colder winters in the coming years,unless the magic gas ups it,s game. here is an extract from today's communiqué:Bulletin said:
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event.
Models schmoodels but this is what the warmista faith is hanging on...a strong El Nino to end the pesky pause, with natural warming from ocean-atmosphere coupling passed off via lack of explanation as manmadeup warming i.e. any old warming which is desperately needed to keep the lie alive. Unfortunately the blessed models aren't keeping to the script - it's difficult to torture related data into confession - and a weak El Nino is looking more and more likely. We won't know until it happens, but it's good to know that at least for now mother nature is keeping pressure up on the faithful.wc98 said:
turbobloke said:
For all thread followers hanging off every word of the latest ENSO advisory here is an extract from today's communiqué:
there will be no el nino,super or otherwise .the oceanic cycles such as the pdo,amo,nao are either in or entering their negative cooler phases. for the uk this should mean cooling seas resulting in colder winters in the coming years,unless the magic gas ups it,s game. here is an extract from today's communiqué:Bulletin said:
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event.
Models schmoodels but this is what the warmista faith is hanging on...a strong El Nino to end the pesky pause, with natural warming from ocean-atmosphere coupling passed off via lack of explanation as manmadeup warming i.e. any old warming which is desperately needed to keep the lie alive. Unfortunately the blessed models aren't keeping to the script - it's difficult to torture related data into confession - and a weak El Nino is looking more and more likely. We won't know until it happens, but it's good to know that at least for now mother nature is keeping pressure up on the faithful.
I don't know if this is science or politics, but Daily Mail article reports that a scientist says "we're f
ked" Daily Mail
ked" Daily Mailmotco said:
I don't know if this is science or politics, but Daily Mail article reports that a scientist says "we're fked" Daily Mail
Poor decision on his part to breed.ked" Daily MailDelingpole skirts around the issue of political competency in his usual reserved style.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720341/Th...
Contains mentions of just about everything but headlines the diesel dash con. It's about time it got some general public non-petrolhead exposure.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720341/Th...
Contains mentions of just about everything but headlines the diesel dash con. It's about time it got some general public non-petrolhead exposure.
motco said:
I don't know if this is science or politics, but Daily Mail article reports that a scientist says "we're fked" Daily Mail
Which seems to to originate from collapsing sea floors caused by cold temeratures according to the article.So atmospheric C02 induced global 'warming' wouldn't be the cause of that even if it existed.The answer seems obvious if methane is supposedly a green house gas that supposedly has even more greenhouse properties than CO2 does then we'd better start burning it thereby turning it into CO2 PDQ.But that doesn't fit the CO2 global warmist script either.So he's right we're fked" Daily Mailked either way.Meanwhile I'm now going to have to change my order for CO2 filled double glazing and CO2 filled glazed loft to methane filled instead.Being that methane's supposed green house properties would produce more heat than burning the stuff instead would.
Edited by XJ Flyer on Saturday 9th August 14:47
FiF said:
Well DECC seems to be still on a crash course towards putting out the lights.
Setting aside all the technical arguments pro and con, Drax, the UK's largest PF generating station had won a court case over eligibility for subsidy under renewable obligations re conversion of units to burn biomass .
In short in December the Govt (DECC) awarded Drax eligibility under the new scheme to convert two units for biomass. Drax have been quite open that the economics of the conversion entirely depends on Govt subsidy.
In April DECC completely and arbitrarily disqualified one of the units, overturning their previous decision.
Drax sought judicial review claiming that they needed the early funds from the RO as this would allow them to secure long term biomass contracts for supply. They could still make the conversion but there was significant risk of not being able to secure sufficient biomass and this would in turn put at risk the amount of electricity which could be generated.
The High Court found in Drax's favour, and said the DECC had misunderstood the situation and ordered the subsidy to be paid as originally agreed.
DECC appealed and have today won that appeal.
Drax will not take the matter further.
They have staked the entire future of the plant on conversion to biomass.
Comments from analysts seeing the Drax share price plunge include:-
"The events of this year raises two concerns. First, that the UK government has cooled on its enthusiasm for large scale biomass conversions. And second that as the government juggles its various energy priorities they can act arbitrarily and unpredictably."
"negative implications for the credibility of UK energy policy".
Maybe they could burn coal !!!Setting aside all the technical arguments pro and con, Drax, the UK's largest PF generating station had won a court case over eligibility for subsidy under renewable obligations re conversion of units to burn biomass .
In short in December the Govt (DECC) awarded Drax eligibility under the new scheme to convert two units for biomass. Drax have been quite open that the economics of the conversion entirely depends on Govt subsidy.
In April DECC completely and arbitrarily disqualified one of the units, overturning their previous decision.
Drax sought judicial review claiming that they needed the early funds from the RO as this would allow them to secure long term biomass contracts for supply. They could still make the conversion but there was significant risk of not being able to secure sufficient biomass and this would in turn put at risk the amount of electricity which could be generated.
The High Court found in Drax's favour, and said the DECC had misunderstood the situation and ordered the subsidy to be paid as originally agreed.
DECC appealed and have today won that appeal.
Drax will not take the matter further.
They have staked the entire future of the plant on conversion to biomass.
Comments from analysts seeing the Drax share price plunge include:-
"The events of this year raises two concerns. First, that the UK government has cooled on its enthusiasm for large scale biomass conversions. And second that as the government juggles its various energy priorities they can act arbitrarily and unpredictably."
"negative implications for the credibility of UK energy policy".
As I understand it, more methane will very rapidly cause more high level water vapour in the atmosphere which will presumably block the sun and regulate warming pretty well all on its own. But it seems they use models that assume a tipping point will be reached instead, where the methane breakdown process is exhausted, and runaway warming ensues.
The daily Mail, not known for getting everything right, has an interesting take on how the UK might subsidise the development of Irish and French off-shore wind farms where "some of the electricity generated" is used by the UK via what it seems to suggest would be the existing "connectors"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2721...
If they are interpreting things correctly, and guessing about how such an arrangement might work, this sound like it has the potential to be one of the biggest cons ever perpetrated on our callow politicians and thus the people of this country. Worse - it could establish a principle that becomes a 'norm' for future decades and is always accepted "on the nod".
All in the name of carbon reduction - an Emperor with no known wardrobe to wear.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2721...
If they are interpreting things correctly, and guessing about how such an arrangement might work, this sound like it has the potential to be one of the biggest cons ever perpetrated on our callow politicians and thus the people of this country. Worse - it could establish a principle that becomes a 'norm' for future decades and is always accepted "on the nod".
All in the name of carbon reduction - an Emperor with no known wardrobe to wear.
Oakey said:
Wind turbines are producing 17percent of the supply tonight. see, renewables aren't useless. Wind turbines are perfectly viable... so long as we've got this sort of weather constantly and you're happy with to live with that
Yup.Been very up and down though, despite the windy weather. Often quite a significant difference between the 2 forecasts for output and what is finally produced. Must be a big challenge trying to keep things balanced on the grid.
Of course the 17% figure is helped by it being night time and summer.
No doubt we will see some sort of press release soon telling the masses how the things are providing such large percentages of demand and what a success they are.
This may be relevant too:
EDF took 4 nuclear reactors offline on Monday due to a maintenance problem with a boiler. The reactors are at two different power stations: Heysham, Lancashire (2 reactors) and Hartlepool (2 reactors). The fault was found at Heysham, but they've shut down the Hartlepool plant as a precaution, because the boiler is of a similar design.
"The outages mean a third of Britain's nuclear capacity will be offline this week, following temporary maintenance work taking place at two of EDF's other reactors in Scotland and Kent."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/11...
EDF took 4 nuclear reactors offline on Monday due to a maintenance problem with a boiler. The reactors are at two different power stations: Heysham, Lancashire (2 reactors) and Hartlepool (2 reactors). The fault was found at Heysham, but they've shut down the Hartlepool plant as a precaution, because the boiler is of a similar design.
"The outages mean a third of Britain's nuclear capacity will be offline this week, following temporary maintenance work taking place at two of EDF's other reactors in Scotland and Kent."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/11...
Beati Dogu said:
This may be relevant too:
EDF took 4 nuclear reactors offline on Monday due to a maintenance problem with a boiler. The reactors are at two different power stations: Heysham, Lancashire (2 reactors) and Hartlepool (2 reactors). The fault was found at Heysham, but they've shut down the Hartlepool plant as a precaution, because the boiler is of a similar design.
"The outages mean a third of Britain's nuclear capacity will be offline this week, following temporary maintenance work taking place at two of EDF's other reactors in Scotland and Kent."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/11...
The report a few days ago on the BBC web pages suggested that initial investigation will take about 8 weeks. Quite what that means was not made clear.EDF took 4 nuclear reactors offline on Monday due to a maintenance problem with a boiler. The reactors are at two different power stations: Heysham, Lancashire (2 reactors) and Hartlepool (2 reactors). The fault was found at Heysham, but they've shut down the Hartlepool plant as a precaution, because the boiler is of a similar design.
"The outages mean a third of Britain's nuclear capacity will be offline this week, following temporary maintenance work taking place at two of EDF's other reactors in Scotland and Kent."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/11...
The short term surplus on the bmreports web site looks a little tight for a couple of days if the wind stops blowing. I assume that is adjusted daily according to information from the generators. Presumably a substantial amount of the coal generation capacity will be back on line over the next 2 weeks after scheduled summer maintenance.
The Long term surplus numbers are, it seems, updated every Wednesday. So we might assume that this coming Wednesday will include some initial adjustment for the nuclear outages.
The estimate tight now is that in the middle of winter (Xmas and the new year demand) the margin is about 10000MW (average numbers over 30 min periods) but it seems that fully performing wind may be included in that at circa 7500MW. That of course is a very unlikely figure and seems to be estimated at about 90% of metered (theoretical) capacity.
Heysham 1 is, apparently, about 1150MWe capacity. If Hartlepool is the same then the potential available shortfall would, considered simply on the basis of the numbers, be about 2300MW. An extended outage for those two could make the winter a more interesting challenge than usual. Especially if the are any quiet wind days ... or violent storms.
The widely scattered STOR installations may do quite well out of such a situation whilst ensuring that future warming is enhanced (in the views of some) by liberating plenty of CO2 from their diesel fuel.
Meanwhile .... which direction will Drax take now that their Canadian fuel supply subsidy scam seems to be under pressure?
Do lawmakers burn well should the need arise?
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