Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
Increase In Reported UK Flooding Due To Population Growth, Not Global Warming
A rise in the number of reported floods in the UK over the past 129 years can mainly be explained by increased exposure, resulting from urban expansion and population growth, according to new research by the University of Southampton. In one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind, scientists have discovered that although the number of reported floods has gone up during the 20th and 21st Century, this trend disappears when the figures are adjusted to reflect population growth and increased building numbers over the same period.
Phys.org, 19 August 2014
Met Office Rejects Research Findings On UK Flooding
The increase in flooding in Britain is due to urban expansion and population growth rather than climate change, a study suggests. Derek Clarke, a lecturer in civil engineering at the University of Southampton and co-author of the study, ruled out a link between last winter’s devastating floods and climate change. However, the Met Office does not agree, and Dame Julia Slingo, its chief scientist, said “all the evidence suggests there is a link” with global warming.
Hannah Devlin, The Times, 19 August 2014
Mystic Met and Slingo
A rise in the number of reported floods in the UK over the past 129 years can mainly be explained by increased exposure, resulting from urban expansion and population growth, according to new research by the University of Southampton. In one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind, scientists have discovered that although the number of reported floods has gone up during the 20th and 21st Century, this trend disappears when the figures are adjusted to reflect population growth and increased building numbers over the same period.
Phys.org, 19 August 2014
Met Office Rejects Research Findings On UK Flooding
The increase in flooding in Britain is due to urban expansion and population growth rather than climate change, a study suggests. Derek Clarke, a lecturer in civil engineering at the University of Southampton and co-author of the study, ruled out a link between last winter’s devastating floods and climate change. However, the Met Office does not agree, and Dame Julia Slingo, its chief scientist, said “all the evidence suggests there is a link” with global warming.
Hannah Devlin, The Times, 19 August 2014
Mystic Met and Slingo
"What’s wrong with climate activism and some climate scientists in one ugly nutshell"
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/20/whats-wrong-...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/20/whats-wrong-...
Have they let feelings get in the way of science?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
Pesty said:
Have they let feelings get in the way of science?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
There have been emoting students studying eco options on a mission to save the planet for many years now, which is partly why climate science is in the state it's in. Making a fatal false assumption before you even start is quite a feat.http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
Refracking Ready To Rejuvenate Shale Revolution
Amazing Shale Revolution To Bring Down World Food Prices
Wells sunk as little as three years ago are being fracked again, the latest innovation in the technology-driven shale oil revolution. Thanks to the dual-deployment of horizontal well drilling and hydraulic fracturing, oil and gas firms have unlocked massive new reserves across the United States, completely transforming America’s energy fortunes in just a matter of years. It’s a common but very serious mistake to predict the future based on what holds true today. In this case, those who have predicted the demise of the shale revolution may soon be forced to eat their words. The pace of technological change is accelerating, redefining possibilities along the way.
Walter Russell Mead, The American Interest, 20 August 2014
The “gale of shale” is hitting the US and the world with surplus energy. In 2000, shale was 2% of natural gas supply; in 2012, it was about 37%; and will be about 65% within the next two decades. The US is poised for shipping out shale gas in liquefied form as net exporter of energy. American motorists are consuming less gasoline, thereby limiting the blend of biofuels like ethanol. The “energy security” lobby of the US is no longer supportive of biofuels. With sufficiency and viability of shale gas, the future demand of ethanol will shrink, resulting into demand compression of corn, especially in the US, and its price will move southwards in the coming years.
Tejinder Narang, The Financial Express, 19 August 2014
Europe may be on the cusp of developing a shale natural gas sector that could mimic the expansion in the United States, analysis from Wood Mackenzie finds. Robert Clarke, director of research into the area for Wood Mackenzie, said U.S. shale gas production has evolved from operations in easy-to-reach and highly productive basins to what he’s describing as “unconventional 3.0″ — a phase characterized by a lessons-learned approach to areas once considered too difficult for commercial drilling. “Europe is one of the best areas outside of the United States for this to occur,” he said Wednesday in an e-mailed statement.
Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, 20 August 2014
Amazing Shale Revolution To Bring Down World Food Prices
Wells sunk as little as three years ago are being fracked again, the latest innovation in the technology-driven shale oil revolution. Thanks to the dual-deployment of horizontal well drilling and hydraulic fracturing, oil and gas firms have unlocked massive new reserves across the United States, completely transforming America’s energy fortunes in just a matter of years. It’s a common but very serious mistake to predict the future based on what holds true today. In this case, those who have predicted the demise of the shale revolution may soon be forced to eat their words. The pace of technological change is accelerating, redefining possibilities along the way.
Walter Russell Mead, The American Interest, 20 August 2014
The “gale of shale” is hitting the US and the world with surplus energy. In 2000, shale was 2% of natural gas supply; in 2012, it was about 37%; and will be about 65% within the next two decades. The US is poised for shipping out shale gas in liquefied form as net exporter of energy. American motorists are consuming less gasoline, thereby limiting the blend of biofuels like ethanol. The “energy security” lobby of the US is no longer supportive of biofuels. With sufficiency and viability of shale gas, the future demand of ethanol will shrink, resulting into demand compression of corn, especially in the US, and its price will move southwards in the coming years.
Tejinder Narang, The Financial Express, 19 August 2014
Europe may be on the cusp of developing a shale natural gas sector that could mimic the expansion in the United States, analysis from Wood Mackenzie finds. Robert Clarke, director of research into the area for Wood Mackenzie, said U.S. shale gas production has evolved from operations in easy-to-reach and highly productive basins to what he’s describing as “unconventional 3.0″ — a phase characterized by a lessons-learned approach to areas once considered too difficult for commercial drilling. “Europe is one of the best areas outside of the United States for this to occur,” he said Wednesday in an e-mailed statement.
Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, 20 August 2014
turbobloke said:
Pesty said:
Have they let feelings get in the way of science?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
There have been emoting students studying eco options on a mission to save the planet for many years now, which is partly why climate science is in the state it's in. Making a fatal false assumption before you even start is quite a feat.http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/e...
Euroloons combat climate change by banning vacuum cleaners.
Please give me a sturdy stone wall, upon which I may bang my head.
So, what's next, cars over 50bhp..?
Euroloons combat climate change by banning vacuum cleaners.
Please give me a sturdy stone wall, upon which I may bang my head.
So, what's next, cars over 50bhp..?
Pesty said:
Have they let feelings get in the way of science?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
I just read most of them.... I agree with the comments. Do these people all see the same psychiatrist? They sound unhinged. Worriers, people who inherently worry and about things they have no control over, so are in a constant state of worry. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/21/climate-scie...
mybrainhurts said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/e...
Euroloons combat climate change by banning vacuum cleaners.
Please give me a sturdy stone wall, upon which I may bang my head.
So, what's next, cars over 50bhp..?
Another good reason for getting out of the EU.Euroloons combat climate change by banning vacuum cleaners.
Please give me a sturdy stone wall, upon which I may bang my head.
So, what's next, cars over 50bhp..?
It seems that all the missing heat is in the Atlantic and it may be another 10 to 15 years before it pops up again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2887...
Oddly the BBC put this in their Science section. It reads more like Astrology.
The only purpose I can think of is for the political gain of having a "justification" to continue the tax and control projects whilst "Science" awaits the next several decades of observations that might marginally allow an improved understanding of some aspects of how the planet functions as it does.
In my view proper scientists would be suggesting that no one should get too excited about anything for at least another 20 to 30 years. Certainly not dive into to long terms policy decision based on guesswork.
One the other hand ... it seems they have at least agreed that the claim of ever rising temperatures is incorrect. Through gritted press releases nonetheless.
From the BBC article.
"The hiatus in the rise in global temperatures could last for another 10 years, according to new research.
Scientists have struggled to explain the so-called pause that began in 1999, despite ever increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. "
Very Cargo Cultish.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2887...
Oddly the BBC put this in their Science section. It reads more like Astrology.
The only purpose I can think of is for the political gain of having a "justification" to continue the tax and control projects whilst "Science" awaits the next several decades of observations that might marginally allow an improved understanding of some aspects of how the planet functions as it does.
In my view proper scientists would be suggesting that no one should get too excited about anything for at least another 20 to 30 years. Certainly not dive into to long terms policy decision based on guesswork.
One the other hand ... it seems they have at least agreed that the claim of ever rising temperatures is incorrect. Through gritted press releases nonetheless.
From the BBC article.
"The hiatus in the rise in global temperatures could last for another 10 years, according to new research.
Scientists have struggled to explain the so-called pause that began in 1999, despite ever increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. "
Very Cargo Cultish.
It would be embarrassing to astrology. Climatewang is unique in the annals of garbage, and reading that article is a laugh a line but also depressing in the sense that it reveals nonscience in all its glory and a supine national media source peddling it at full tilt in the context of widespread political patronage.
True blue is still deep green it seems. 'Global warming is still happening, the heat is in the ocean' and 'local effects are uncertain but the trend isn't'.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
rovermorris999 said:
True blue is still deep green it seems. 'Global warming is still happening, the heat is in the ocean' and 'local effects are uncertain but the trend isn't'.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
Have they tried looking behind the fridge? http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
Naughty heat, hiding like that, you ought to be ashamed of yourself!
Is this "its hiding on the sea floor" theory any more than just a theory. I saw the report on the BBC this morning (which was presented with a tone of jubilation) but as far as I could see, it was nothing more than a model.
When will people learn a model is nothing without validation...i.e. empirical evidence that shows the model mimics reality?
I could write a model right now that says if the number of cats increases in my local vicinity the chance of receiving a surprise delivery of ice-cream increases exponentially. I can bung all that in MatLab and get me an answer.... its not real of course.
When will people learn a model is nothing without validation...i.e. empirical evidence that shows the model mimics reality?
I could write a model right now that says if the number of cats increases in my local vicinity the chance of receiving a surprise delivery of ice-cream increases exponentially. I can bung all that in MatLab and get me an answer.... its not real of course.
Andy Zarse said:
rovermorris999 said:
True blue is still deep green it seems. 'Global warming is still happening, the heat is in the ocean' and 'local effects are uncertain but the trend isn't'.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
Have they tried looking behind the fridge? http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/...
Naughty heat, hiding like that, you ought to be ashamed of yourself!
Somebody should send Peter Franklin and Rebecca Leber this data from a Trenberth paper. That's Dr Kevin Trenberth, IPCC High Priest of Warming. It was featured over at the Hockey Schtick website and was covered on PH at the time.
Trenberth's paper shows the rate of change in global ocean heat content has been decreasing as the 'pause' continues.
Atmospheric heat getting to the deep oceans otherwise than via the surface 700m layer is climatewang. Deep ocean heat returning...2nd Law anyone?
Any claim that the 'pause' of global warming can be explained by an increase in the rate of ocean missing heat uptake is baloney, the rate has been decreasing for most of the 'pause'.
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