Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2

Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2

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turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Friday 17th October 2014
quotequote all
wc98 said:
turbobloke said:
TransverseTight said:
turbobloke said:
"(the models have) quite accurately predicted the rates of warming over the last 40 years or so".

rofl

That explains why we were all advised well in advance about the ongoing 19 year 'pause' in global warming, and that it was due to the oceans eating Trenberth green plants talking too much.
Has anyone got a model for predicting future climate stability?

I could do one in excel, quite easy really ... years along the top, Stick 21 deg in cell B1. Then do B2=B1, B3=B2 etc etc.

I'm not sure it would pass the IPCC review process though. I think it would pass the PH scientific scrutiny test though. ;-)
You've got that cassock about surplice smile PH demands are high.

A 20 year 'pause' has a vanishingly small probability in climatemodelworld.

On the McKitrick analysis we're very nearly there, vanishing in uncharted waters ho ho ho and not those that ate Trenberth.
the only reason the last 18 or so years of surface temperatures are displayed as a "pause" is down do data manipulation through various algorithms applied by the different agencies around the world.if the smearing techniques of the algorithms did not extrapolate surface temps from areas hundreds of miles apart i think we would actually be seeing a decline in the global average at least for the last several years.
Following a flat or near-plateau period of 100 years as seen in USA, Canada, NZ and Oz raw data.

Look at the hockeystick with the synthetic bolt-on bit removed.

turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Friday 17th October 2014
quotequote all
Poland To Veto EU’s 40% CO2 Reduction Proposal

New Unilateral CO2 Targets Would ‘Destroy European Industry’ Poland Warns

'If the EU summit next week maintains the European Commission’s proposal on reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent by 2030, Poland will have to veto it, Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Janusz Piechocinski told Polish Radio on Thursday. “If this initial proposal will look as it does now, then Poland will have no choice but to veto it,” Piechocinski said. “For the Polish economy minister and the majority of EU economy ministers the 40-percent option, which destroys half of Europe’s industry, is unacceptable,” he added.'
Warsaw Business Journal, 16 October 2014

'Poland’s Economy Minister and Deputy PM Janusz Piechocinski has said that the EU’s proposal on CO2 emissions reduction would “destroy European industry”. “Europe shouldn’t be naïve, and it shouldn’t decide on anything which would be harmful for European industry,” Piechocinski told Polish Radio, Thursday morning.'
Polish Radio, 16 October 2014


mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

255 months

Friday 17th October 2014
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
New Unilateral CO2 Targets Would ‘Destroy European Industry’ Poland Warns
Warsaw Business Journal, 16 October 2014
That's the whole idea, isn't it?

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Friday 17th October 2014
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
turbobloke said:
New Unilateral CO2 Targets Would ‘Destroy European Industry’ Poland Warns
Warsaw Business Journal, 16 October 2014
That's the whole idea, isn't it?
Well, probably, but by the time the CO2 target stuff might become significant there may be only a mopping up process left for it.

chris watton

22,477 posts

260 months

Friday 17th October 2014
quotequote all
"Britain needs political climate change to cut soaring energy bills

Targets for renewables are unattainable, futile – and will cost us trillions of pounds"


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11169831/B...

Charles Moore seems to write sense..

turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Saturday 18th October 2014
quotequote all
chris watton said:
"Britain needs political climate change to cut soaring energy bills

Targets for renewables are unattainable, futile – and will cost us trillions of pounds"


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11169831/B...

Charles Moore seems to write sense..
He sure does, and if I remember correctly, he didn't "pause" once smile

Silver Smudger

3,299 posts

167 months

Saturday 18th October 2014
quotequote all
Remember that ridiculous Greenpeace video aimed at Lego a few months back? It worked -

'The world's biggest toymaker Lego ends its partnership with Shell after a Greenpeace online video campaign goes viral, attracting almost six million views '

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/viral-vi...

hidetheelephants

24,167 posts

193 months

Saturday 18th October 2014
quotequote all
Silver Smudger said:
Remember that ridiculous Greenpeace video aimed at Lego a few months back? It worked -

'The world's biggest toymaker Lego ends its partnership with Shell after a Greenpeace online video campaign goes viral, attracting almost six million views '

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/viral-vi...
Presumably they will still be making their little plastic bricks out of evil hydrocarbons wrested from the earth's bosom by rapine oil companies though?

turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Saturday 18th October 2014
quotequote all
This may have been covered already but if I've missed it then here's a pearoast...the twin nuclear reactors at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool have been shut down for ~2 years after cracks were discovered in a boiler at the Heysham site, making it even more likely than previously thought that the lights will soon go out. Fortunately we have renewables to save us nuts

powerstroke

10,283 posts

160 months

Saturday 18th October 2014
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
This may have been covered already but if I've missed it then here's a pearoast...the twin nuclear reactors at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool have been shut down for ~2 years after cracks were discovered in a boiler at the Heysham site, making it even more likely than previously thought that the lights will soon go out. Fortunately we have renewables to save us nuts
Well If it takes a power cut or two and it focuses feeble minds and our political elite on the folly of our present energy policy then great, the sooner this nonsensical rubbish about Co2
And manmade climate change will be scrapped or at least watered down (hopefully!!!)

vournikas

11,699 posts

204 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
Full transcript of Owen Paterson's address to the GWPF this week :

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/o...


turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
Solar farm subsidies all trussed up - excellent move.

Jasandjules

69,867 posts

229 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
Good news for once. Certainly good for the environment.

turbobloke

103,862 posts

260 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
Angela Merkel Casts Doubt Over EU Climate Summit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has dampened expectations about the EU climate summit next week. It was “still open whether it would succeed to adopt the Climate and Energy Framework 2030 next week or later,” Merkel said in a government statement to parliament. In light of these differences, the Chancellor called for patience with hesitant countries. It was right, “to take into account the specific circumstances of all member states and not to ask too much of anyone”. Merkel pointed out that EU climate targets would have to be adopted unanimously. Poland in particular is balking at ambitious [unilateral] CO2 targets.

Der Stern, 17 October 2014


mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

255 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
Watching Angela Merkel in controlled panic to save the Fourth Reich from economic collapse.

What a glorious way to see out the week....hehe

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Sunday 19th October 2014
quotequote all
Hmm.

The Energy situation is about to get more interesting.

With the 2 split nukes out of action for 2 years the available spare capacity to predicted demand shrunk somewhat.

Now I see that there are reports of a huge fire at Didcot B. No doubt that will also be out of action for an extended period.

I must remember to check the graph on the bmreports site next Wednesday - the day, iirc, when the long term margin is updated. Of course they may not be in a position to know much by then ...

It's funny how stuff just seem to happen now and then.

hidetheelephants

24,167 posts

193 months

Monday 20th October 2014
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Looks pretty bad. Now all we need is an arctic vortex; I'm glad I've got a generator at home, along with a huge pile of wood and a stove to burn it in.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Monday 20th October 04:49

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

170 months

Monday 20th October 2014
quotequote all
I doubt that will be the camel's straw, 'B' itself seems to be in 2 parts, 1 is still operating, so they've lost less than 0.7GW capacity.

Still, all these things seem to be coming together, one or 2 more big stations off-line, and things could get messy.

QuantumTokoloshi

4,162 posts

217 months

Monday 20th October 2014
quotequote all
A worthwhile read, if a little hyped, on the the "green blob". Who is in the middle? None other than the right dishonourable Anthony Charles Lynton Blair. Where there is money and power to be had, Blair is attached liked a creepy smiling, hand open, memory deficient leech.

David Keighley: Climate change alarmism. Another obsession of an unaccountable elite

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 20th October 10:48

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