Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
Beati Dogu said:
The Met Office is getting another, even more powerful & expensive Cray supercomputer. This one is £100 million and is due to go live next year
This in only 5 years after their last £33 million IBM supercomputer was turned on in Exeter.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11146583...
Presumable it's powered my unicorn farts and rainbows instead of electricity, as there's no mention of megawatts amidst all the other stats on their website.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/supercom...
if you look at Cray's site, it has the spec's.This in only 5 years after their last £33 million IBM supercomputer was turned on in Exeter.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11146583...
Presumable it's powered my unicorn farts and rainbows instead of electricity, as there's no mention of megawatts amidst all the other stats on their website.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/supercom...
going on the limited info in the BBC report, your looking at some 210+ computation cabinets (ie, the ones with the CPU's in) at 30Kw per cabinet.
then add in the interconnects, memory, storage, then the AC to cool it all, and your looking at a significant power station to run it!
I'm sure everyone has already seen this, but I post it simply because it continues the theme of 'black is white';
Geoffrey Lean in the DT; "Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research" and it cites some spanking new results of...erm...computer modelling...gulp...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clima...
- the comments (the hundred or so I read) were about 98% in denial of the article's claims. Rightly so.
Geoffrey Lean in the DT; "Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research" and it cites some spanking new results of...erm...computer modelling...gulp...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clima...
- the comments (the hundred or so I read) were about 98% in denial of the article's claims. Rightly so.
i note no mention that part of the "emergency measures" include vast amounts of C02 generating diesel powered generators. must really stick in their throat that something they spent so much time promoting proves to be the worthless s
t many people predicted.
i think the back up measures should include using bbc and met office employees,lib dum and labour members and supporters and every climate scientist in the uk along with transverse tight and his ilk, as fuel in biomass plants.
t many people predicted.i think the back up measures should include using bbc and met office employees,lib dum and labour members and supporters and every climate scientist in the uk along with transverse tight and his ilk, as fuel in biomass plants.
Silver Smudger said:
TransverseTight said:
Yep - I see the miracle coming - it's called vehicle to grid energy storage...
...Most of the EVSE kit (wall chargers) has this stuff built in already to send power back to the grid from the car... just they haven't sorted the signalling and contracts/payment stuff yet.
Doesn't the house wiring and national grid require a fair amount of upgrading to cope with this two-way power flow or is that all dealt with by the EVSE install? ...Most of the EVSE kit (wall chargers) has this stuff built in already to send power back to the grid from the car... just they haven't sorted the signalling and contracts/payment stuff yet.
I really can't see the point in mobile cycling batteries as a proposed 'solution' when there are more obvious and realistic ways to deal with the challenges.
As for CCS (mentioned earlier by TT) ... yep, sure. Maybe Elon Musk, miracle worker in residence, can come up with something. Perhaps use the captured carbon as fuel to transport his 1 million population of humans to Mars.
Mind you looking at what seems likely to be be possible in an optimistic way today some decades ahead of the "must exist to be a viable solution" date ... I wouldn't want to make a large bet on a successful development.
So, what is plan B?
TransverseTight said:
LongQ said:
And that illustrates the entire point of the article. Wind sourced energy is highly volatile and unpredictable and all too often absent when you need and present when you don't thus screwing the entire capacity planning and economic design of the national generation system. If they persist with the plans to add ever more "Free" energy things are going to get very expensive indeed.
Unless, of course, a miracle happens. And we all know the political miracles happen all of the time, right?
Yep - I see the miracle coming - it's called vehicle to grid energy storage. There's only about 17,000 EVs in the UK right now. But as that gets bigger, you can use them to buffer the output from wind, and release it in the evening peak. Buy it at 8p/kWh and sell at 80p/kWh. Maybe not quite such a spread for us consumers, but via aggregator contracts you could put those EV batteries to good use, and pay for a replacement battery sooner than you would have. Sounds bad wearing out your battery, but it means you get to upgrade to a next gen, 10 minute charging, 50% more kWh... but have still made a profit. Rather than just leaving it sitting out in the cold, losing charge doing nothing.Unless, of course, a miracle happens. And we all know the political miracles happen all of the time, right?
Most people do much less than 40 miles per day, and yet current EVs can do about 75+. So charge them up at night on E7. Keep enough in reserve for the trip home, fully discharge when you plug it in by pumping into the grid. Sometime after midnight it starts charging. If you can get a workplace charge... linked to turbine output (not directly but through comms) you can top up a bit more ready for the peak.
Most of the EVSE kit (wall chargers) has this stuff built in already to send power back to the gird from the car... just they haven't sorted the signalling and contracts/payment stuff yet.
The grid to EV storage does sound nice in theory, but I don't think it will the miracle you say it is. There are a few hurdles.
1) some people simply won't allow that type of use regardless of the benefits. So you miss out on some storage capacity.
2) You're shifting the subsidy problem from windfarms to motorists. While it would be nice to get a slice of the pie, its the subsidy that is creating the high prices. Also, without being paid not to generate when it is windy (because the energy can now be stored) will the economic viability of windfarms disappear?...hence they no longer get built or maintained. Would we then have to continue subsidising wind farms and also the motorists who allow their EV battery to used by the grid? What will that do to energy prices?
3) you're also shifting the uncertainty from wind farms to motorists. When the wind blows will there be enough cars connected to store the energy? Mid day, people at work, not as many hooked up to charge points as there would be if people were home.
When the grid wants its power back, will there be enough people connected to do so? if they need it at 5:30 pm, when everyone is parked on the M1 and M25 then its not so useful. If it needs it at 7 PM when people are in eating their tea, then it works. But what if, like me, you are then off out most evenings? I'd want my car ready to go with full range.
4) How will they deal with not leaving motorists stranded? Say they need the juice at 4 pm and the owner comes back at 5pm to drive home, only to find his EV flat as a pancake? Will there have to be agreements in place that the car will be attached always between X am and Y pm? If its removed during that time, will there be a penalty payment?
Nice idea but its going to take some serious critical thinking to make sure it works in practice and everyone is going to have to be in on it and change the way they use their cars. There would be danger of whilst making power from renewables more of a known quantity, you'd end up restricting peoples mobility. That isn't beneficial to the economy either.
Then just imaging what your powerbill will look like when its full of sales and buy backs!
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
wc98 said:
i note no mention that part of the "emergency measures" include vast amounts of C02 generating diesel powered generators. must really stick in their throat that something they spent so much time promoting proves to be the worthless st many people predicted.
t many people predicted.
A Cold Winter Could Put The Lights Out
Emergency measures to prevent blackouts this winter have been unveiled by National Grid after Britain’s spare power capacity fell to just 4 per cent.
Emily Gosden, The Daily Telegraph, 27 October 2014
National Grid has warned that there has been a significant increase in the risk of electricity shortages and brownouts this winter after fires and faults knocked out a large chunk of Britain’s shrinking power station coverage. The grid operator admitted that in the event of Britain experiencing the coldest snap in 20 years – a 5 per cent chance – then electricity supplies would not be able to meet demand during two weeks in January.
Tim Webb, The Times, 27 October 2014
Previously...and as advertised on PH for at least the last seven years:
The capacity crunch has been predicted for about seven years. Everyone seems to have seen this coming – except the people in charge.
The UK government will set out Second World War-style measures to keep the lights on and avert power cuts as a "last resort". The price to Britons will be high. Factories will be asked to "voluntarily" shut down to save energy at peak times for homes, while others will be paid to provide their own backup power should they have a spare generator or two lying around.
Andrew Orlowski, The Register, 10 June 2014
chris watton said:
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
We used to win wars, now we excel at stupidity...such is progress.
chris watton said:
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
That would be correct.The people running this country are as thick as mince.
Otispunkmeyer said:
chris watton said:
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
That would be correct.The people running this country are as thick as mince.
Blib said:
Otispunkmeyer said:
chris watton said:
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
That would be correct.The people running this country are as thick as mince.
Scuffers said:
if you look at Cray's site, it has the spec's.
going on the limited info in the BBC report, your looking at some 210+ computation cabinets (ie, the ones with the CPU's in) at 30Kw per cabinet.
then add in the interconnects, memory, storage, then the AC to cool it all, and your looking at a significant power station to run it!
Yeah I looked it up too. It'll allow Mystic Met to be wrong to a greater degree of accuracy.going on the limited info in the BBC report, your looking at some 210+ computation cabinets (ie, the ones with the CPU's in) at 30Kw per cabinet.
then add in the interconnects, memory, storage, then the AC to cool it all, and your looking at a significant power station to run it!
I sat on a Cray 1 supercomputer once at the Smithsonian IIRC. They look like airport seating from the 1970s.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/05/tob_cray1/
mybrainhurts said:
Blib said:
Otispunkmeyer said:
chris watton said:
Just to be clear here - we (the UK) have both the technology and resources to ensure every single home and business has plenty of energy (it is 2014 after all..), but, because of ideological dogma, homes and businesses may have to be energy rationed, as there isn't, or will not be enough energy produced?
That would be correct.The people running this country are as thick as mince.
Silver Smudger said:
Doesn't the house wiring and national grid require a fair amount of upgrading to cope with this two-way power flow or is that all dealt with by the EVSE install?
Well they are sticking a 32A point on the outside of my garage, by utilising an unused space on the fuse board. I've heard sometimes they stick a spur off in the meter box if you are needing a longer cable run, or have no empty circuit breaker points.The grid doesn't need upgrading... what goes out my meter box would hit the cable in the street and be bagged by one of my neighbours before it gets past the substation. That's assuming the i3 can export. Just because the EVSE can, it doesn't mean the i3 has AC output at the charger port. If it does - it would make a pretty meaty backup generator (25kW). As long as you have a few drums of unleaded you could survive a grid black out and generate enough power to run several dozen homes from the REX as long as they don't switch on an electric shower or cooker. Or I could keep it all to myself :-)
Will have to get back to you on insurance. I was asking the question originally in case someone else knew if there were studies done. MY assumption being people with billions tied up on property assets and offering to cover risks, would also be keen to understand the future risks using their own models. Not necessarily climate models, but what if the climate does this, that or the other. There needs to be no proof it will, just a chance it might and some kind of probability score. Especially as that's how they make a profit - charging a fair bit more than they expect to pay out. That's what the job of an actuary is...
http://www.actuaries.org.uk/becoming-actuary/pages...
Sssuming they work out life cover and pension annuity rates, they must be used to working out risks on multi-decade scales. I first came across people who do this work while working at HMRC on a pension forecasting project. £1,000 a day as a freelance consultant. That's even more than I earn!
LongQ said:
Silver Smudger said:
TransverseTight said:
Yep - I see the miracle coming - it's called vehicle to grid energy storage...
...Most of the EVSE kit (wall chargers) has this stuff built in already to send power back to the grid from the car... just they haven't sorted the signalling and contracts/payment stuff yet.
Doesn't the house wiring and national grid require a fair amount of upgrading to cope with this two-way power flow or is that all dealt with by the EVSE install? ...Most of the EVSE kit (wall chargers) has this stuff built in already to send power back to the grid from the car... just they haven't sorted the signalling and contracts/payment stuff yet.
I really can't see the point in mobile cycling batteries as a proposed 'solution' when there are more obvious and realistic ways to deal with the challenges.
As for CCS (mentioned earlier by TT) ... yep, sure. Maybe Elon Musk, miracle worker in residence, can come up with something. Perhaps use the captured carbon as fuel to transport his 1 million population of humans to Mars.
Mind you looking at what seems likely to be be possible in an optimistic way today some decades ahead of the "must exist to be a viable solution" date ... I wouldn't want to make a large bet on a successful development.
So, what is plan B?
http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storag...
Solar City is another of his businesses. And residential energy storage is where they will be sticking about 20-30% of the batteries from the new Gigafactory. Makes perfect sense if you have a solar array. Collect in the day, run the appliances at home at night, what's left after midnigt use to charge your Model S (eventually - you'd need a big huge solar array to do that), and then suck in a bit more from the grid whilst its cheapest. With enough to get you through till 8am when the PV fires up again.
I Tell ya.. big stuff is happening. No Politicians needed. First the off grid and "wanna be independent of large corporates energy cos" will adopt. And rich people who do it to have the latest thing. Makes solar pay more if you can export it peak time. I bet Telsa are looking to make more money selling energy than cars in the long term!
Talking CCS- my favorite is an idea in USA. They capture the carbon in some slurry stuff and use the resulting carbonate or whatever it's called to replace part of the the cement in concrete. Cuts out the process of baking limestone to get the same product. I don't think it can be a complete replacement - something like 25% slop to 75% cement ratio. Thought I better check up on it as it might be one of those companies that has an idea and then goes under... They actually have a pilot up and running for 2 years.. http://www.calera.com/beneficial-reuse-of-co2/scal...
What I love about this one.. it not only means you can connect up your gas / coal fired powerstation as an an input, but you are also reducing emissions from cement manufacturing, and ending up with a product you can sell. Cost to make is probably higher, but better than just trying to scrub CO2 with no output.
The other options I've seen is using Aglae to make synthetic oil. And cut out the millions of years letting nature do it.
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