Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
Mr GrimNasty said:
The guy is in fantasy land, just ignore him, he's ruining the thread with utter garbage which has nothing to do with politics.
Keep saying that. Keep makeing statements with no link (so I can't learn anything or understand your resistance). This is ALL about politics. You think EVs are not political? Pull the other one.
Ok, reading back through the thread, maybe the title should actually be "Links to newspaper articles with something to do with climate and a sarcastic comment to follow".
I'm sorry if I'm not fitting the usual banter, but I think you can actually teach me something. I'm not sure yet what that is, but most of all I'm interested to gauge what other people's opinion is. To do that I have to post my opinion, see what you think, find out where I'm wrong and lacking information, see what people's concerns are and if they are valid, or just out of date or have been influenced by FUD.
I could ask myself WHY!? It's nothing to do with my job, I don't have any plans to work in the automotive sector. I guess really, it's because its a subject areas that interests me, and I know quite a bit about. Some people mike like ManU, and spend 24x7 on their forum. Me I like cars & technology. And women. :-P
What I don't get is why a lot of you come across as aggressive. Like "f off and leave this thread alone". I mean surely you want to have a debate, not just pat each other on the backs about how you found a Daily Mail article about Ed Davey making a fool of himself? I like those too.. which is why most of the time I'm a Lurker not a poster. Just this week I've been winding down on the end of a contract so a bit more time to post my own thoughts.
Silver Smudger said:
Anything in your xls to demonstrate how battery tech development has been, is now, and always will be, linear?
It's not linear. That's the average. 1st graph I cam across on google...
http://img.deusm.com/designnews/284/284917-Auto_In...
Cost reductions are dependent on new tech or efficiency in existing tech.
They might go 2% 1 year as they get ROI on a plant and able to drop prices, or some new anode tech comes on stream dropping it 15%. Or they work out a cheaper electrolyte mix saving 4%. Etc etc.
Definitely not linear, and not consistent across manufacturers or chemistries.
TransverseTight said:
Silver Smudger said:
Silver Smudger said:
TransverseTight said:
Battery costs I dealt with a few pages back. They are coming down 7% per year. Which put another way means they halve every 10 years. Energy density which affects the weight is increseing 8% a year. Or doubles every 8 years.....
TransverseTight said:
.....I've just dug up an XLS off my dropbox that shows if a theoretical battery costs £10,000 now, in 2020 its £6,470, 2030 £3,131 and 2040 £1,516. I think the i3 battery costs about £12k. So you can see how over time the market will shift.
Anything in your xls to demonstrate how battery tech development has been, is now, and always will be, linear?1st graph I cam across on google...
Cost reductions are dependent on new tech or efficiency in existing tech.
They might go 2% 1 year as they get ROI on a plant and able to drop prices, or some new anode tech comes on stream dropping it 15%. Or they work out a cheaper electrolyte mix saving 4%. Etc etc.
Definitely not linear, and not consistent across manufacturers or chemistries.
ETA - That graph is titled Projected Costs - How old is it, and how are we doing against those projections?
Edited by Silver Smudger on Friday 31st October 17:42
TransverseTight said:
s2art said:
You cant have it both ways. If 100 miles equals 0.25 KWh, then 60 miles on the same charge equals approx 0.4 KWh. Thats simple arithmetic, not making things up. See previous posts on real world experience on the Nissan Leaf, those ranges achieved by real people in the real world suggest 0.5 KWh is optimistic.
I think this is going nowhere and getting into Is and Ts but...18/100=0.18
18/60=0.3
No one get 100 miles out of a leaf, That's down hill with a tail wind, which is why I start with 0.25.
You could argue with me they get less range later on, but then that's because the battery capacity has dropped, so they don't store 18kWh any more.
Can you point me to where the stuff is on 0;5Kwh/mile? I'm geniunely interested but google is giving lots of hits on 0.50 with even if it was as bad as..
stuff like like http://www.leaftalk.co.uk/showthread.php/11743-wha...
Again usually 0.2x with the one bloke saying 0.3 with a lead foot.
The EV w**kathin is based on the fact in all of the thread on PH Where would you discuss the possibilty of using EVs as a means of changing our energy use so the CO2 issue goes away? What if, we didn't use stuff that emitted CO2. And it didn't need taxes, subsisdies.
At least from a motoring point of view. What I'm finding interesting is that people are telling me, no f
k off, the only way I can see me ever getting from A>B is if you give me several litres of liquid to burn in a reciprocating engine. I find that hard to believe.
Personally I love fast cars, and the freedom they bring. Public transport sucks, apart from on long journeys where you can sleep if some idiot hasn't got those white apple ear buds.
I don't want the government doubling the cost of my journey with taxes. IF we can get carbon free motoring they'll have to find something else to tax, or stop paying for liposuction.
I'm not tied to oil. If we can already get 600HP+ 250 mile range EVs after 10 years of Telsa being in existence, then things are looking promising.
I'm not saying oil causes climate change, I can't as I'm not a climate scientist. I'm saying, if we can use say, for example nukes to power plug in EVs and they are faster, cheaper to own and run, don't break down as often and the driving characteristics are better, don't they make sense.
I know not all EVs fit those parameters yet. But it's being worked on. The i3 is light. The Telsa is fast and has useable range.
What we need now is a 3 series sized car, made from carbon, with less batteries than a Tesla and an ICE to keep it going on longer journey.
1500kg. 300hp RWD. 30kWh / 100+ mile battery. 20 litre tank with a 850CC REX. £40k + options.
I think those numbers are achievable now. Package it in something that looks more coupe than city box.
Name the manufacturer who you think will have that on the market first?
Edited by TransverseTight on Friday 31st October 17:19
It EVs were common then the driving behaviour would change from the early adopters, more people with lead feet etc.
It also seems that battery temperature can make a big difference, perhaps internal resistance is high outside optimum temps.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/11/1/s...
What's the Beeb up to?
Radio 4 Today programme Saturday 1 November 2014. Roger Harribin in Andrew Montford is "influential" shocker...
But the UK's "most prominent sceptics" and "mainstream" are moving together on the science.
Oh, and the IPCC is the "biggest peer reviewed scientific process" and its "five yearly bible on climate change" is nearly upon us.
Phew...
Listen again here...14 minutes in.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04n20tr
And, in other news...
The BBC calls for Jeremy Clarkson to be knighted.....
What's the Beeb up to?
Radio 4 Today programme Saturday 1 November 2014. Roger Harribin in Andrew Montford is "influential" shocker...
But the UK's "most prominent sceptics" and "mainstream" are moving together on the science.
Oh, and the IPCC is the "biggest peer reviewed scientific process" and its "five yearly bible on climate change" is nearly upon us.
Phew...
Listen again here...14 minutes in.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04n20tr
And, in other news...
The BBC calls for Jeremy Clarkson to be knighted.....
IPCC Powerless As Deadlock Over Climate Treaty Solidifies And Ritual IPCC Alarm Changes Nothing
The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday. Yet despite the IPCC’s stark warnings, there is widespread agreement from climate change activists, sceptics and, privately, UK Government officials, that the summit in Paris is unlikely to achieve a legally-binding deal that will curb warming to the 2C level.
Emily Gosden, The Sunday Telegraph, 02 November 2014
Carbon Dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost half by 2030 or global temperatures will eventually rise by between 2C and 5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will warn today. In its fifth report on climate change, the IPCC is also expected to say humans must pump no more than a further one trillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere if temperature change is to be kept below 2C. The body will say it will be clear within six years if the threat of “dangerous” climate change has been averted. Dr Benny Peiser, director of the climate-sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the impact of CO2 levels on the atmosphere remained “open to question”. He added that, “mainly for economic reasons”, it was very unlikely big emitters such as India and China would be able to cap their emissions.
Michael Hanlon, The Sunday Times, 02 November 2014
The idea of politicians truly believing they have their immensely capable fingers on the planet's thermostat and can dial 2 deg C in or out is hilarious. Then we have the IPCC saying that within 6 years it will be clear if dangerous climate change has been averted - averted by what? Emissions have been rising since the IPCC formed and they are still rising. This looks like another reheat of that tripe from the House of Lords bint about green blob policies having an impact, never mind how...what's likely is that the IPCC priests have seen the writing on the wall - and the mercury falling - and they're pre-empting climate stasis or cooling over the next decade by staking a claim to the credit for it, which is equally hilarious but predictable when you remember who we're dealing with.
The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday. Yet despite the IPCC’s stark warnings, there is widespread agreement from climate change activists, sceptics and, privately, UK Government officials, that the summit in Paris is unlikely to achieve a legally-binding deal that will curb warming to the 2C level.
Emily Gosden, The Sunday Telegraph, 02 November 2014
Carbon Dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost half by 2030 or global temperatures will eventually rise by between 2C and 5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will warn today. In its fifth report on climate change, the IPCC is also expected to say humans must pump no more than a further one trillion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere if temperature change is to be kept below 2C. The body will say it will be clear within six years if the threat of “dangerous” climate change has been averted. Dr Benny Peiser, director of the climate-sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the impact of CO2 levels on the atmosphere remained “open to question”. He added that, “mainly for economic reasons”, it was very unlikely big emitters such as India and China would be able to cap their emissions.
Michael Hanlon, The Sunday Times, 02 November 2014
The idea of politicians truly believing they have their immensely capable fingers on the planet's thermostat and can dial 2 deg C in or out is hilarious. Then we have the IPCC saying that within 6 years it will be clear if dangerous climate change has been averted - averted by what? Emissions have been rising since the IPCC formed and they are still rising. This looks like another reheat of that tripe from the House of Lords bint about green blob policies having an impact, never mind how...what's likely is that the IPCC priests have seen the writing on the wall - and the mercury falling - and they're pre-empting climate stasis or cooling over the next decade by staking a claim to the credit for it, which is equally hilarious but predictable when you remember who we're dealing with.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2014/08/22/catch-22-of-...
An interesting article from a link on tallblokes website covering energy storage.
Watching the BBC news this morning, they appear to be ramping up the propaganda again.
An interesting article from a link on tallblokes website covering energy storage.
Watching the BBC news this morning, they appear to be ramping up the propaganda again.
PRTVR said:
Watching the BBC news this morning, they appear to be ramping up the propaganda again.
Fortunately I don't watch the beeb's propaganda...this latest wave of bullshine was entirely predictable without recourse to gigo computer models: there's the UN IPCC report and PR today and then the Paris climate summit aka carbon spewing beanfeast ahead.One good note (for sane people) is this:
ENSO Advisory said:
ENSO Alert System Status, El Niño Watch, 27 October ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
This will have believers in tears fumbling for their Gaia prayer beads carefully crafted from recycled pensioners. The entire coterie of the faithful has been depending on a strong El Nino around now to secure 2014 as another meaningless record. It may or may not happen in time but El Nino is an entirely natural phenomenon anyway. That will be conveniently forgotten (again) if it does kick in.turbobloke said:
PRTVR said:
Watching the BBC news this morning, they appear to be ramping up the propaganda again.
Fortunately I don't watch the beeb's propaganda...this latest wave of bullshine was entirely predictable without recourse to gigo computer models: there's the UN IPCC report and PR today and then the Paris climate summit aka carbon spewing beanfeast ahead.One good note (for sane people) is this:
ENSO Advisory said:
ENSO Alert System Status, El Niño Watch, 27 October ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
This will have believers in tears fumbling for their Gaia prayer beads carefully crafted from recycled pensioners. The entire coterie of the faithful has been depending on a strong El Nino around now to secure 2014 as another meaningless record. It may or may not happen in time but El Nino is an entirely natural phenomenon anyway. That will be conveniently forgotten (again) if it does kick in."Don saffron robes and start with a little light tai-chi, perhaps the Windmill Position. Stand on one leg and flail the arms around hopelessly whilst chanting the mantra "whoosh whoosh whoosh". Then insert a magic crystal up the rectum. Next sprinkle a some Guardian granules in a cup of crude oil and drink quickly. Set off hopping along the leylines around Balcombe, stopping now and then to self-abnegate with a chakra stick. Finally remove the crystal before it does any permanent damage. Nirvana will be reached when no further CO2 is emitted by exhalation."
EU Opens Door To Transport Joining Emissions Trading Fraud Scheme
Pressure to cut transport’s carbon dioxide emissions will be weakened if the sector is placed into the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), environmental groups are warning. Transport currently lies outside the ETS and the European Commission has therefore pursued sector-specific policies to reduce transport’s carbon dioxide emissions. The most notable of these is the fuel efficiency standards that currently apply to new cars and light commercial vehicles, and which have been mooted for lorries too. William Todts, senior policy officer at Brussels-based lobby group Transport & Environment (T&E), said that Denmark had proposed placing transport into the ETS. Although the idea was rejected by other member states, Todts said the European Council was of the view that individual member states can include their transport emissions in the ETS if they want.
Local Transport Today, 31 October 2014
Pressure to cut transport’s carbon dioxide emissions will be weakened if the sector is placed into the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), environmental groups are warning. Transport currently lies outside the ETS and the European Commission has therefore pursued sector-specific policies to reduce transport’s carbon dioxide emissions. The most notable of these is the fuel efficiency standards that currently apply to new cars and light commercial vehicles, and which have been mooted for lorries too. William Todts, senior policy officer at Brussels-based lobby group Transport & Environment (T&E), said that Denmark had proposed placing transport into the ETS. Although the idea was rejected by other member states, Todts said the European Council was of the view that individual member states can include their transport emissions in the ETS if they want.
Local Transport Today, 31 October 2014
Pesty said:
.Radio 4 today. About noon
Ipcc we have to become completely zero emissions if we wish to stop 2 degrees increase by end of century. No doubt now allclimate change is man made.
So solar activity and axial precession are ruled out?Ipcc we have to become completely zero emissions if we wish to stop 2 degrees increase by end of century. No doubt now allclimate change is man made.
I'd like to see the definitive science on that.
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