Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 2
Discussion
Well as I'm off work I decided to stay up late and do some numbers trying to answer when does solar become cost competitive with grid as I haven't done it for a few years. As it's late and I've drunk 3/4 of a bottle of wine, I'll leave it to you lot to check my maths. But the answer is NOW! Have to say I'm a bit suprised and assume I've made a mistake, but here goes...
First off there are two answers to this question..
1 : Utility scale solar generation feeding into the grid - ie wholesale rate electricity.
2 : Home generated make your own energy, i.e retail rate - what you pay on your elecrtic bill.
From my fag packet spreadsheet, 1 is still a few years away, but 2, is here right now, even without the FiT!
I alluded earlier to $1/watt being the magic price point. This is based on the wholesale cost of generation. So let me stick the numbers in...
1: Utility Scale. Requires $1/kW to be cost competitive with the grid.
$1 = 0.62p
So we are saying £0.62 per watt installed. or £620 per kWh.
With the FiT Data we can now see average PV output is 900kWh / year per kW installed.
It used to be 750kWh, but better monitoring / more systems and better panels improved this.
Assume 25 year panel life (they actually last 40, but guaranteee is 25 years).
22,500 kWh total life output per kW.
Works out at £660/22500 = 0.027 round to 3p/kWh - which is consistent with wholesale costs.
As we are nowhere near £620/kW installed - even for huge fields of installed stuff this is still a few years away.
2: Domestic scale. Current pricing £2020/kW.
990kWh/year
25 years
22500 kWh total
2020 / 22500 = £0.08977 or 9p/kWh.
That's economy 7 rate for day time generated electricity. Typically about 16p day and 8p night.
Is my maths wrong or have we reached a tipping point?
Don't forget you get to add 14p/kWh FiT on for what you generate. To me it looks as if the FiT should be ended and people should learn to set their dishwasher and washing machine timer to 11:30am.
Given that the costis only 9p/kWh that leaves some scope for energy storage costs. A typical 4kW peak system generates enough for a typical family ... as long as you don't drive an EV ;-) As you only get 5p for exporting vs the actual cost of 9p - you'd be better of using th 4p differnece to pay for battery storage and use it yourself later. Guess what costs I'm looking at next ...
First off there are two answers to this question..
1 : Utility scale solar generation feeding into the grid - ie wholesale rate electricity.
2 : Home generated make your own energy, i.e retail rate - what you pay on your elecrtic bill.
From my fag packet spreadsheet, 1 is still a few years away, but 2, is here right now, even without the FiT!
I alluded earlier to $1/watt being the magic price point. This is based on the wholesale cost of generation. So let me stick the numbers in...
1: Utility Scale. Requires $1/kW to be cost competitive with the grid.
$1 = 0.62p
So we are saying £0.62 per watt installed. or £620 per kWh.
With the FiT Data we can now see average PV output is 900kWh / year per kW installed.
It used to be 750kWh, but better monitoring / more systems and better panels improved this.
Assume 25 year panel life (they actually last 40, but guaranteee is 25 years).
22,500 kWh total life output per kW.
Works out at £660/22500 = 0.027 round to 3p/kWh - which is consistent with wholesale costs.
As we are nowhere near £620/kW installed - even for huge fields of installed stuff this is still a few years away.
2: Domestic scale. Current pricing £2020/kW.
990kWh/year
25 years
22500 kWh total
2020 / 22500 = £0.08977 or 9p/kWh.
That's economy 7 rate for day time generated electricity. Typically about 16p day and 8p night.
Is my maths wrong or have we reached a tipping point?
Don't forget you get to add 14p/kWh FiT on for what you generate. To me it looks as if the FiT should be ended and people should learn to set their dishwasher and washing machine timer to 11:30am.
Given that the costis only 9p/kWh that leaves some scope for energy storage costs. A typical 4kW peak system generates enough for a typical family ... as long as you don't drive an EV ;-) As you only get 5p for exporting vs the actual cost of 9p - you'd be better of using th 4p differnece to pay for battery storage and use it yourself later. Guess what costs I'm looking at next ...
Edited by TransverseTight on Thursday 6th November 02:07
Ok, see why I come here - I get asked questions that get me to review my opinions I have based on what the latest facts are.
Tonight I think I have found out some stuff that suprised even me... those numbers above are out of date. Average of £2020 is what people reported. There's a lot of double glazing type chancers out there seeing what they can get away with.
I've found numerous examples of installers doing an all in 4kW system for £5,500 or £1,375 per kW. No links as I'm not advertising and you might find cheaper.
However I did try and find out what it would cost with a battery storage system. After a few misgoogled attempts I've found the name is a hybrid solar system. This is an example of a 4kW solar, with 10kWh battery storage system for OMG... £7,758. Also works when the grid goes down - which is why I was critical of the old grid tied systems.
http://www.bimblesolar.com/4kwcomplete-sunny-islan...
Tell me I'm wrong, but the only reason we need the grid now is from say October till March when there's less sun in winter? Shutdown the coal plants in summer?
I've been accused on here of living in fantasy land and being a salesman for XYZ, but these numbers seem to stack up on their own merit.
Tonight I think I have found out some stuff that suprised even me... those numbers above are out of date. Average of £2020 is what people reported. There's a lot of double glazing type chancers out there seeing what they can get away with.
I've found numerous examples of installers doing an all in 4kW system for £5,500 or £1,375 per kW. No links as I'm not advertising and you might find cheaper.
However I did try and find out what it would cost with a battery storage system. After a few misgoogled attempts I've found the name is a hybrid solar system. This is an example of a 4kW solar, with 10kWh battery storage system for OMG... £7,758. Also works when the grid goes down - which is why I was critical of the old grid tied systems.
http://www.bimblesolar.com/4kwcomplete-sunny-islan...
Tell me I'm wrong, but the only reason we need the grid now is from say October till March when there's less sun in winter? Shutdown the coal plants in summer?
I've been accused on here of living in fantasy land and being a salesman for XYZ, but these numbers seem to stack up on their own merit.
Edited by TransverseTight on Thursday 6th November 02:32
TransverseTight said:
Ok, see why I come here - I get asked questions that get me to review my opinions I have based on what the latest facts are.
Tonight I think I have found out some stuff that suprised even me... those numbers above are out of date. Average of £2020 is what people reported. There's a lot of double glazing type chancers out there seeing what they can get away with.
I've found numerous examples of installers doing an all in 4kW system for £5,500 or £1,375 per kW. No links as I'm not advertising and you might find cheaper.
However I did try and find out what it would cost with a battery storage system. After a few misgoogled attempts I've found the name is a hybrid solar system. This is an example of a 4kW solar, with 10kWh battery storage system for OMG... £7,758. Also works when the grid goes down - which is why I was critical of the old grid tied systems.
http://www.bimblesolar.com/4kwcomplete-sunny-islan...
Tell me I'm wrong, but the only reason we need the grid now is from say October till March when there's less sun in winter? Shutdown the coal plants in summer?
I've been accused on here of living in fantasy land and being a salesman for XYZ, but these numbers seem to stack up on their own merit.
I have to say TT I admire your vision of a better future, don't ever loose that, but temper it with realism, shutting down the coal fire power stations in the summer? I really would like to see the business plan that would make that economic sense, we need an energy policy that provides the power we need now, not 20 years down the line, maybe, oil prices are falling, now is not the time burden our society/industry with massive costs, if we do we stand the risk of destroying any manufacturing we have remaining.Tonight I think I have found out some stuff that suprised even me... those numbers above are out of date. Average of £2020 is what people reported. There's a lot of double glazing type chancers out there seeing what they can get away with.
I've found numerous examples of installers doing an all in 4kW system for £5,500 or £1,375 per kW. No links as I'm not advertising and you might find cheaper.
However I did try and find out what it would cost with a battery storage system. After a few misgoogled attempts I've found the name is a hybrid solar system. This is an example of a 4kW solar, with 10kWh battery storage system for OMG... £7,758. Also works when the grid goes down - which is why I was critical of the old grid tied systems.
http://www.bimblesolar.com/4kwcomplete-sunny-islan...
Tell me I'm wrong, but the only reason we need the grid now is from say October till March when there's less sun in winter? Shutdown the coal plants in summer?
I've been accused on here of living in fantasy land and being a salesman for XYZ, but these numbers seem to stack up on their own merit.
Edited by TransverseTight on Thursday 6th November 02:32
On the subject of solar, you run into the same problem as wind, if its cloudy you need an alternative power source, you have to have a normal power station of the same output as all the panels you have, you end up paying for the standby power station as well as the solar, it really is not the answer to our power needs.
Halb said:
those comments are funny in their own wayP.S. oh wait, there is more, he actually got sick because of climate change
http://www.riledupjournal.com/RiledUp/Article/TabI...
Guam said:
As we are still on about EV's I am just to about to load the First I8 through our shop onto a truck, guys I would absolutely swallow my principles and have one of these, IF I could get out of it without looking like the fat b
d I am 
Saw one on the streets a couple of weeks ago, schlepping around with its 3 cylinders and electric motor. Looked good on the eye for sure in white with the blue detailing, but a million percent not for me d I am even with a claimed 0-60 of 4.4s which is OK but not brilliant. However I was sorely tempted by the all-electric range of 23 miles 
but then I read that under the USA EPA cycle the range in EV mode is 15 miles - but with a small amount of petrol consumption so the planet is still a gonner 
Guam said:
turbobloke said:
Saw one on the streets a couple of weeks ago, schlepping around with its 3 cylinders and electric motor. Looked good on the eye for sure in white with the blue detailing, but a million percent not for me even with a claimed 0-60 of 4.4s which is OK but not brilliant. However I was sorely tempted by the all-electric range of 23 miles but then I read that under the USA EPA cycle the range in EV mode is 15 miles - but with a small amount of petrol consumption so the planet is still a gonner
Yes but the damn thing looks like something from a SCIFI movie and when all the trim lighting is active it looks like something right out of Tron even with a claimed 0-60 of 4.4s which is OK but not brilliant. However I was sorely tempted by the all-electric range of 23 miles but then I read that under the USA EPA cycle the range in EV mode is 15 miles - but with a small amount of petrol consumption so the planet is still a gonner 
This will disappoint believers who were hoping for a strong El Nino that they could forget about as a natural phenomenon and portray in the media as the yearned for and desperately awaited return of manmadeup warming. We still need to keep an eye on the data, not the ENSO models.
And pause.
CPC NCEP ENSO Advisory which arrived today said:
During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. The weekly Niño indices were between +0.6°C (Niño-3.4 and Niño-1+2) and +0.9°C (Niño-3) at the end of the month. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) were largely unchanged even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific. The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index continued to be negative, accompanied by mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia. Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral. Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C). If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event.
Everyone loves a consensus And pause.
rovermorris999 said:
I believe that an extra 15% on our energy bills in order to save the planet is well worth it. Who cares if our poorest and most vulnerable citizens are forced to live in unheated homes throughout the winter. It is a price I am prepared to pay!I'm so proud that British politicians are so determined to take action that they are, almost without exception, willing to sacrifice their fellow Brits. We will surely be the envy of the World.
Where's me flag?
Green Britain Means Green Poverty As 15 Million UK Homes Plan To Ration Energy Use Due To Sky High Energy Bills
More than 15 million UK households plan to ration their energy use this winter to cope with “sky-high” energy costs, according to uSwitch. The price comparison website, which surveyed 5,300 people, found that almost six in ten (57%) people have already cut back or plan to ration their energy use this winter in a bid to reduce bills. The research also revealed that more than a third of people (36%) who rationed their energy last winter said it affected their health and wellbeing.
Ian Silvera, International Business Times, 06 November 2014
As many as 69 per cent of UK households are worried about the cost of using extra energy this winter, with many bill payers claiming they would spend less money on food in order to pay for energy bills, the survey found. Around 45 per cent said they would struggle to pay their energy bills if they went up, while one in six says they're already struggling to make ends meet, despite the recent warm weather. A third are claiming they would spend less on food to make ends meet.
Natalie Wain, This is Money, 06 November 2014
More than 15 million UK households plan to ration their energy use this winter to cope with “sky-high” energy costs, according to uSwitch. The price comparison website, which surveyed 5,300 people, found that almost six in ten (57%) people have already cut back or plan to ration their energy use this winter in a bid to reduce bills. The research also revealed that more than a third of people (36%) who rationed their energy last winter said it affected their health and wellbeing.
Ian Silvera, International Business Times, 06 November 2014
As many as 69 per cent of UK households are worried about the cost of using extra energy this winter, with many bill payers claiming they would spend less money on food in order to pay for energy bills, the survey found. Around 45 per cent said they would struggle to pay their energy bills if they went up, while one in six says they're already struggling to make ends meet, despite the recent warm weather. A third are claiming they would spend less on food to make ends meet.
Natalie Wain, This is Money, 06 November 2014
a banquet of bks here - more snow? less snow? no snow? who knows?
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/sno...
ks here - more snow? less snow? no snow? who knows? http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/sno...
krunchkin said:
a banquet of bks here - more snow? less snow? no snow? who knows?
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/sno...
Anyone with blood pressure issues should not read the comments. The blinkered and ignorant vitriolic hypocrisy from some of the commenters is utterly astounding. If an impartial alien were to visit that page to learn about the planet's MMGW argument, the truth of the lie would immediately be clear to them.ks here - more snow? less snow? no snow? who knows? http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/sno...
Blib said:
I believe that an extra 15% on our energy bills in order to save the planet is well worth it. Who cares if our poorest and most vulnerable citizens are forced to live in unheated homes throughout the winter.
Indeed. And of course they won't live in those houses long because they will die of the cold. All the cold produced by the Global Warming...Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff