North Korea - how serious should we take them?

[Sway]

eldar said:

robinessex said:

The yanks have 76 B52's flyable.

Edited by robinessex on Monday 12th April 17:26

Fighting 50's technology with 50's technology. Plus a rather more modern ordinance load.

Wonder how much of the 50s ordinance gets thrown at Seoul while the 76 B52s fly over the Pacific...

If NK could be steamrollered, it would have been already - if not by the yanks then the Chinese for whom he's an even bigger thorn. They could then supplant him with someone more palatable whilst maintaining the buffer with SK/US bases.

There's a reason neither have done so - and we can hardly suggest during the life of NK we haven't had rather military happy presidents...

[robinessex]

eldar said:

robinessex said:

The yanks have 76 B52's flyable.

Edited by robinessex on Monday 12th April 17:26

Fighting 50's technology with 50's technology. Plus a rather more modern ordinance load.

A bomb is a bomb

[768]

Until it lands in the wrong place and doesn't go off.

[eldar]

robinessex said:

A bomb is a bomb

Just scale. Mills vs Tsar.

[98elise]

spookly said:

Why don't South Korea just buy a whole load of C-RAM to at least partially counter the long known threat of NK artillery?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMFzlwzFgKw

C-RAM is short range and only useful for defending a small area. Its derived from the Phalanx CIWS system so the automated fire control system is optimised for anti-ship missiles and planes rather than defending against artillery.

Reloading takes many minutes vs 20 seconds of firing time, so a sustained barrage will empty the magazine quickly.

Iron Dome would be better.

Edited by 98elise on Tuesday 13th April 15:08

[bmwmike]

China taking over NK would be an interesting scenario for the US/SK - does anyone see that happening? Pre-emptively China doing a land grab rather than risk NK getting ahead of itself and causing mayhem.

[moustachebandit]

bmwmike said:

China taking over NK would be an interesting scenario for the US/SK - does anyone see that happening? Pre-emptively China doing a land grab rather than risk NK getting ahead of itself and causing mayhem.

Why would they want to? The country is a basket case, the population is indoctrinated and uneducated. The country also has little in the way of resources or economy.

If China did take NK by force, like the Korean war before, it would turn into a quagmire and be their version of Vietnam / Afghanistan. Then there would be the inevitable sanctions from the UN etc which would hurt China far more.

Much easier to keep the current idiot in place and manipulate him to their own needs. The regime will eventually crumble by its own and one day Korea might be a unified country.

[Pommy]

moustachebandit said:

bmwmike said:

China taking over NK would be an interesting scenario for the US/SK - does anyone see that happening? Pre-emptively China doing a land grab rather than risk NK getting ahead of itself and causing mayhem.

Why would they want to? The country is a basket case, the population is indoctrinated and uneducated. The country also has little in the way of resources or economy.

If China did take NK by force, like the Korean war before, it would turn into a quagmire and be their version of Vietnam / Afghanistan. Then there would be the inevitable sanctions from the UN etc which would hurt China far more.

Much easier to keep the current idiot in place and manipulate him to their own needs. The regime will eventually crumble by its own and one day Korea might be a unified country.

NK has some of the largest reserves of precious metals and mining opportunities on earth. That's why China might like it.

[Cobnapint]

Pommy said:

moustachebandit said:

bmwmike said:

China taking over NK would be an interesting scenario for the US/SK - does anyone see that happening? Pre-emptively China doing a land grab rather than risk NK getting ahead of itself and causing mayhem.

Why would they want to? The country is a basket case, the population is indoctrinated and uneducated. The country also has little in the way of resources or economy.

If China did take NK by force, like the Korean war before, it would turn into a quagmire and be their version of Vietnam / Afghanistan. Then there would be the inevitable sanctions from the UN etc which would hurt China far more.

Much easier to keep the current idiot in place and manipulate him to their own needs. The regime will eventually crumble by its own and one day Korea might be a unified country.

NK has some of the largest reserves of precious metals and mining opportunities on earth. That's why China might like it.

And it wouldn't turn into their Vietnam either. NK will be told what to do. There's no way they'd lift a finger against China.
It'd be like the little green men walking into Crimea.
It'd also give China more tactical coastline with which to hassle Japan too. And it'll be a major headache for the West, they'd be right on South Korea's doorstep.

[moustachebandit]

Cobnapint said:

Pommy said:

moustachebandit said:

bmwmike said:

China taking over NK would be an interesting scenario for the US/SK - does anyone see that happening? Pre-emptively China doing a land grab rather than risk NK getting ahead of itself and causing mayhem.

Why would they want to? The country is a basket case, the population is indoctrinated and uneducated. The country also has little in the way of resources or economy.

If China did take NK by force, like the Korean war before, it would turn into a quagmire and be their version of Vietnam / Afghanistan. Then there would be the inevitable sanctions from the UN etc which would hurt China far more.

Much easier to keep the current idiot in place and manipulate him to their own needs. The regime will eventually crumble by its own and one day Korea might be a unified country.

NK has some of the largest reserves of precious metals and mining opportunities on earth. That's why China might like it.

And it wouldn't turn into their Vietnam either. NK will be told what to do. There's no way they'd lift a finger against China.
It'd be like the little green men walking into Crimea.
It'd also give China more tactical coastline with which to hassle Japan too. And it'll be a major headache for the West, they'd be right on South Korea's doorstep.

China already gets their hands on all the materials coming out of NK at rates well below market. Regardless the materials are certainly not worth global sanctions imposed on China and inevitable military response from a hostile invasion.

If China did invade, then NK would mobilise and defend. The ruling class will be desperate to retain power, regardless of who is invading them. They certainly wouldn't just concede to a hostile Chinese invasion.

[hidetheelephants]

Cobnapint said:

And it wouldn't turn into their Vietnam either. NK will be told what to do. There's no way they'd lift a finger against China.
It'd be like the little green men walking into Crimea.
It'd also give China more tactical coastline with which to hassle Japan too. And it'll be a major headache for the West, they'd be right on South Korea's doorstep.

Unless they were continuing onward to Busan and reunifying the peninsula, it's more South Korea being on China's doorstep; they've not had a border with a developed nation since they subsumed HK, that's a significant internal security risk for the middle kingdom.

[RichFN2]

China also does well with using plenty of cheap labour from North Korea to work in Chinese factories, if China wants to keep production costs as low as possible then they need to keep the current arrangement which also stops too many from coming over.

Also the Crimea situation is different with Crimea being in Russia and Ukraine in the past, and with ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians etc living on both sides before, during and after the USSR. North Koreans feel closest to South Koreans, just the political situation keeps them apart.

[Liokault]

RichFN2 said:

China also does well with using plenty of cheap labour from North Korea to work in Chinese factories, if China wants to keep production costs as low as possible then they need to keep the current arrangement which also stops too many from coming over.

Also the Crimea situation is different with Crimea being in Russia and Ukraine in the past, and with ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians etc living on both sides before, during and after the USSR. North Koreans feel closest to South Koreans, just the political situation keeps them apart.

I wonder how the whole “it was previously Russian” and “we are obliged to defend ethnic Russians” when China decides it wants Vladivostok back. Have you seen how many Chinese are working over the border?

[robinessex]

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life - North Korean Edition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifLqzLEB3E0

[Laurel Green]

robinessex said:

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life - North Korean Edition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifLqzLEB3E0

Hard to believe that a year has gone by since the last post.

[robinessex]

After the BBC documentary last night, it would seem that the beloved leader has finally gone stark raving mad. I seriously doubt they could actually raise a serious fighting force and attack anyone.

[Snoggledog]

robinessex said:

After the BBC documentary last night, it would seem that the beloved leader has finally gone stark raving mad. I seriously doubt they could actually raise a serious fighting force and attack anyone.

With the volume of short range missiles he has available, he doesn't need much in terms of a fighting force. I seem to recall reading somewhere that he has the ability to virtually flatten Seoul with his conventional armaments.

[robinessex]

Snoggledog said:

robinessex said:

After the BBC documentary last night, it would seem that the beloved leader has finally gone stark raving mad. I seriously doubt they could actually raise a serious fighting force and attack anyone.

With the volume of short range missiles he has available, he doesn't need much in terms of a fighting force. I seem to recall reading somewhere that he has the ability to virtually flatten Seoul with his conventional armaments.

That's if he's got any military staff who aren't half dead to do that, and they'll most likely be an immediate USA-led response that would almost wipe them off the planet. I'm pretty certain all his 'serious' weapons locations are known via satellite, and are already programmed in for a hit, plus his infrastructure. I doubt if any of his 1,000s of geriatric generals standing around with a chestful of medals will have the slightest idea, would it be a question of 'put your hands up' if the answer is yes?

[shih tzu faced]

Snoggledog said:

With the volume of short range missiles he has available, he doesn't need much in terms of a fighting force. I seem to recall reading somewhere that he has the ability to virtually flatten Seoul with his conventional armaments.

I think he knows that the whole of North Korea would likely be obliterated moments later by the US if he did that.

EDIT: posted at the same time as robbinessex. I’m not trying to be a smart arse!

[Snoggledog]

You're both quite right in that his kingdom would fall very quickly after the USA got involved. But the point still stands. He does have the capacity to virtually level Seoul.