North Korea - how serious should we take them?
Discussion
jurbie said:
I love how pretty much every last inch of NK is covered on Google earth in remarkably high resolution. I wonder if that is all part of the infowar to help stoke up their paranoia a bit?
http://goo.gl/maps/qJmWq
Ha, I would think so, the annotation of "Plutonium enrichment centres" certainly sounds like it...http://goo.gl/maps/qJmWq
What's the deal with 49 Para then?
Asterix said:
Mojocvh said:
I'm assuming you know what sort of set up 49 Para is?
Asterix said:
I wouldn't be surprised if China & the US were in open dialogue throwing around scenarios and likely outcomes to see how they could sort this out.
My thought's are it would be far more beneficial in the long term for someone, the US probably so to absolve China of blame, to remove the current NK regime. Then I think China would prefer to have a unified Korea for a number of reasons. Firstly, it puts the responsibility, cost and other factors on SK. They could provide benevolent support, which would make them look good and allow them to get a stronger hold on the whole peninsula from the inside and they will have a far more willing trading partner on their doorstep with plebty of tech to be snaffled.
I believe that once the NK population get to see the outside world with their own eyes, all that brain washing will count for little in a relatively short space of time.
What will Russia do? They will make lots of noise but if China are happy, they won't do much.
Look at China's strategy in Africa and the Middle East. It's all about investment, infrastructure building and a softly, softly long term approach.
That I think is about right. God only knows what sort of mess there is to clear up in North Korea - death camps, weapons of mass destruction, toxic wastelands, I expect all of that and more. Plus a population who will become extremely angry as soon as they hear of the lies they've been peddled for the last 60 years. China is quite sensible to not want to deal with that, but if Kim continues to be as bellicose as he is there may be little option but for them to put tanks on the lawn. It's the true mark of any emerging superpower to have a (ineffective) go at nation building. My thought's are it would be far more beneficial in the long term for someone, the US probably so to absolve China of blame, to remove the current NK regime. Then I think China would prefer to have a unified Korea for a number of reasons. Firstly, it puts the responsibility, cost and other factors on SK. They could provide benevolent support, which would make them look good and allow them to get a stronger hold on the whole peninsula from the inside and they will have a far more willing trading partner on their doorstep with plebty of tech to be snaffled.
I believe that once the NK population get to see the outside world with their own eyes, all that brain washing will count for little in a relatively short space of time.
What will Russia do? They will make lots of noise but if China are happy, they won't do much.
Look at China's strategy in Africa and the Middle East. It's all about investment, infrastructure building and a softly, softly long term approach.
Edited by Asterix on Saturday 30th March 08:46
davepoth said:
Asterix said:
I wouldn't be surprised if China & the US were in open dialogue throwing around scenarios and likely outcomes to see how they could sort this out.
My thought's are it would be far more beneficial in the long term for someone, the US probably so to absolve China of blame, to remove the current NK regime. Then I think China would prefer to have a unified Korea for a number of reasons. Firstly, it puts the responsibility, cost and other factors on SK. They could provide benevolent support, which would make them look good and allow them to get a stronger hold on the whole peninsula from the inside and they will have a far more willing trading partner on their doorstep with plebty of tech to be snaffled.
I believe that once the NK population get to see the outside world with their own eyes, all that brain washing will count for little in a relatively short space of time.
What will Russia do? They will make lots of noise but if China are happy, they won't do much.
Look at China's strategy in Africa and the Middle East. It's all about investment, infrastructure building and a softly, softly long term approach.
That I think is about right. God only knows what sort of mess there is to clear up in North Korea - death camps, weapons of mass destruction, toxic wastelands, I expect all of that and more. Plus a population who will become extremely angry as soon as they hear of the lies they've been peddled for the last 60 years. China is quite sensible to not want to deal with that, but if Kim continues to be as bellicose as he is there may be little option but for them to put tanks on the lawn. It's the true mark of any emerging superpower to have a (ineffective) go at nation building. My thought's are it would be far more beneficial in the long term for someone, the US probably so to absolve China of blame, to remove the current NK regime. Then I think China would prefer to have a unified Korea for a number of reasons. Firstly, it puts the responsibility, cost and other factors on SK. They could provide benevolent support, which would make them look good and allow them to get a stronger hold on the whole peninsula from the inside and they will have a far more willing trading partner on their doorstep with plebty of tech to be snaffled.
I believe that once the NK population get to see the outside world with their own eyes, all that brain washing will count for little in a relatively short space of time.
What will Russia do? They will make lots of noise but if China are happy, they won't do much.
Look at China's strategy in Africa and the Middle East. It's all about investment, infrastructure building and a softly, softly long term approach.
Edited by Asterix on Saturday 30th March 08:46
My thinking is that these are the guys that do have access to the big wide world. They also know they are on a hiding to nothing. I'm guessing they have far more control of the youngster than they did of the father. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't feeding him a whole line about his prowess as a great war general and how he could take down SK & the US, blah, blah, blah. These guys will not be stupid. There's always a time to get out and use someone else, KJ-U, as the fall guy. Not only as the chief protagonist as seen by the rest of the world, but also internally. Easier to say they have saved the country from an evil dictator that put the population at risk of annihilation than lead them to a monumental whooping.
Then again, I could be talking out of my anus.
So, assuming that another nation or group of nations decide to take action against NK, what course is that likely to take?
My understanding of the Iraq wars is that their air force was no real match for the Coalition so it was easy for them to gain air supremacy, but what does NK have to defend themselves with?
People tend to assume that a US/China/Russian lead invasion force would just waltz over the border, but what's to most likely outcome?
My understanding of the Iraq wars is that their air force was no real match for the Coalition so it was easy for them to gain air supremacy, but what does NK have to defend themselves with?
People tend to assume that a US/China/Russian lead invasion force would just waltz over the border, but what's to most likely outcome?
The biggest problem is the colossal amount of conventional artillery they have within striking distance of Seoul (13,000 guns estimated). The North could inflict huge damage on the South without having to take a single step over the border.
As far as air defenses go they are estimated as:
8+ long-range KN-06
24-40 long-range SA-5
Up to 440 medium range SA-1, SA-2 and SA-3
Unknown number of medium-range SA-4, SA-6 and SA-17
At least 15,000 MANPADS
They also have somewhere around 11,000 anti-aircraft artillery units
As far as air defenses go they are estimated as:
8+ long-range KN-06
24-40 long-range SA-5
Up to 440 medium range SA-1, SA-2 and SA-3
Unknown number of medium-range SA-4, SA-6 and SA-17
At least 15,000 MANPADS
They also have somewhere around 11,000 anti-aircraft artillery units
Edited by skyrover on Monday 1st April 23:54
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