Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

V8RX7

26,862 posts

263 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
Yeah I do still have bags of francs and other pre Euro currencies
Some time ago I took all my similar money to the bank and they happily exchanged it and donated it to charity.

V8RX7

26,862 posts

263 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
As pointed out this morning on Andrew Marr / Daily Politics the unelected Bureaucrats are taking this badly and talking a hard line.

But the elected ministers who are well aware that they export more to us than they import, are taking a more pragmatic approach.

I was posted a link to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Futxf1U2f8

Which seems a little biased / optimistic but shows we are far from alone in our thoughts.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
V8RX7 said:
As pointed out this morning on Andrew Marr / Daily Politics the unelected Bureaucrats are taking this badly and talking a hard line.

But the elected ministers who are well aware that they export more to us than they import, are taking a more pragmatic approach.

I was posted a link to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Futxf1U2f8

Which seems a little biased / optimistic but shows we are far from alone in our thoughts.
There is a great deal happening in politics in the UK currently and I think this has become very revealing indeed of the ridiculous extent to which UK politicians have become so remote from the electorate that they are totally out of touch with the real concerns of the electorate in the UK and hoplessly adrift from understanding the difficulties this has presented to them.

The Labour Party are having their annual competition to see how ruinous ther internecine warfare can prove to be and half the shadow cabinet have resigned, in an effirt to unseat Jeremy. Most of them seem to think its Jeremy Corbyns fault that the UK voted as we did. I am no fan of Corbyn but I am bound to say that the considerable efforts of Boris Johnson and the Leave camp, including Nigel Farge seem a lot more responsible to me.

The Conservative party are reeling from the resignation of Cameron and desperately looking for a way to avoid Boris, whom many Conservatives now regard as an awful affliction, can possibly be prevented from becoming Leader of the Conservative party and then the next British Prime Minister! Where the hell is the Chancellor is my question? Instead of parading in support of the beleaguered pound and raising the hopes of the UK and assisting the Governor of the Bank of England in those tasks. George Osborne is hiding away in a blue funk. So much for his political hopes!!

Once again I remind everyone, that, 'A week in politics is a very long time". If you proposed this scenario to most voters they would say you were making it up. But it is actually the low point that UK politicians have finally descended to. Totally out of touch, totally concerned with theselves and utterly unaware or even interested in the concerns of the electorate.

I noted the contribution from Driller on the thread and it is good to see him posting on here. Everyone's entitled to their view. I am interested to know how the many Remain supporters view the situation in the UK now. I have predicted that the EU would come unstuck for years and therefore I really have no way of gauging what the remain camp are feeling now that this decision is upon us. There really is a lot to consider and the more views the better. This is going to get very interesting.





Edited by Steffan on Sunday 26th June 21:01

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Thought this BBC article was worth airing on the excetional consequences that will follow the Brext vote.

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

Getting a real handle onto the gravity of the decision is by no means easy. This is a multilevel problem for which there are no easy answers. The process of the UK leaving the EU will take literally years and years. But the die is cast the UK will leave the EU. I am just beginning to wonder whether some of the inevitable consequences to the EU will include a number of other EU members calling for decions on wether they wsh to exit the Euro? That might very well case further exits before we have actually left the EU, because of the timeframe. Interesting times we are experiencing. All because one hapless indivdual asked the question of the UK that he should never have asked?

Really difficult currently to estimate with any degree of accuracy, just how this will proceed. But proceed it will. We are leaving the EU and our politicians are totally incapable of facing the difficulties enitrely cused by their decades of joint failure to be aware of the serious concerns of the electorate. Perhaps the most direct and worst condemnation of modern politicans I have witnessed. Interesting times indeed!!

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
The EU may well disband and a new organisation spring up in it's place.

Literally everything is up in the air at the moment.

One thing is for certain, the once insurmountable EU has been changed irreversibly.

kurt535

3,559 posts

117 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Euro looking good on the currency markets! Thread needs to be changed to is this the end of Sterling!

BJ's interview in the Telegraph appears to have gone down like a lead balloon with the £


Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all

IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Steffan said:
Getting a real handle onto the gravity of the decision is by no means easy...
It is when you're at Le Mans and on the cidre. Absolutely anything seems possible after a couple of days. Here's Perdu, myself and A N Other get a grip on European affairs whilst listening to Derek & Clive. You can imagine we had some quite brilliant ideas, it's just a shame nobody can remember what they were.



Edited by Andy Zarse on Sunday 26th June 23:34

eharding

13,705 posts

284 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Here's Perdu, myself and A N Other get a grip on European affairs whilst listening to Derek & Clive.
I love a bit of Derek & Clive

'Leave' performed by young Dudley Moore said:
Leave, you fcensoreders, leave.

Leave into this 'ere Brexit what we are holding out, and you will be alright.

They left, hit the deck, broke their fcensoredg necks. There waaaaas no Brexit.

Laugh, we nearly shat. We have not laughed so much since Farage un-resigned, or Uncle Nigel caught his left nad in the mangle."

Haaaaaaaarsoles.

kurt535

3,559 posts

117 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
skyrover said:
The EU may well disband and a new organisation spring up in it's place.

Literally everything is up in the air at the moment.

One thing is for certain, the once insurmountable EU has been changed irreversibly.
kurt535 said:
Euro looking good on the currency markets! Thread needs to be changed to is this the end of Sterling!

BJ's interview in the Telegraph appears to have gone down like a lead balloon with the £
Good to see others are on the ball abd watching the consequences of this historic decision. I cannot think of a more sudden abd serious political upset?

The position of BJ is a very tricky one. Hs distinctly downbeat entrance into the Prime Ministerial election process has reflected his own concerns with the ruffled feathers within the Conservative party, I think? His extremely prominent role in the Leave campaign succeeding, has undoubtedly made his election to the highest political office in the Country somewhat problematic. The majority of Conservative MP's supported the Remain campaign. That is not good for Boris's prospects at all!

He has the advantage that the likes of Theresa May and presumably others making the same grabs are likely to underline, by theur inadequacies, how much more of a statesman Boris already is, than they will ever be? That may just edge ths process towards him? But there really is a very great deal of angst running amok within the conservative party currently and in many ways this is a decision where predicting the outcome is almost impossible.

The conseqences of this historic decision will change the course of British history. Ultimately I think that ths decision may also fundamentally alter the European scenes. There s a great deal of pent up frustration witin Euope just as there always was witin the UK. The whole future of Europe will be revisited I suspect. I think the EU will be found sadly wanting!

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
Talk about buy the rumour sell the fact...

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
$ already at 1.345 & Euro at 1.21, not as much of drop as I had expected - short term bottom? Central Bankers will be out in force soon to settle markets.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
As readers of this thread may know I nether gamble nor work the markets. Not my games. But I certainly recognise that others do and the markets are always somewhat predatory and seeking a good position. I would hope that the current incumbents at Downing street make a good fist of seeing off any attempts at manipulation? The UK is entering uncharted territory politically with this recent decision.

The total self absorption and nonsense going on within the Labour party currently demonstrates that they really are a chocolate teapot. I hope that the government can rise to the occasion. I think that Carney can hold this together but there are no guarantees. Osbourne is a waste of space. Challenging times for the UK. Pity the politicians do not have any interest in anything other than themselves and their position, ther income and personal accolades. Politics really is a very dirty game!

kurt535

3,559 posts

117 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
$ already at 1.345 & Euro at 1.21, not as much of drop as I had expected - short term bottom? Central Bankers will be out in force soon to settle markets.
yes agree short term $ bottom. I've got shorts on from 1.48's and not taking them off! they won't quite pay for the house depreciation but will help cover cost of alcohol to blot out the losses for a night smile

and tbh, love it when central banks line up and march against markets. reminds me of Arnhem....a bridge too far

B'stard Child

28,397 posts

246 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
$ already at 1.345 & Euro at 1.21, not as much of drop as I had expected - short term bottom? Central Bankers will be out in force soon to settle markets.
yes agree short term $ bottom. I've got shorts on from 1.48's and not taking them off! they won't quite pay for the house depreciation but will help cover cost of alcohol to blot out the losses for a night smile

and tbh, love it when central banks line up and march against markets. reminds me of Arnhem....a bridge too far
Reminds me of the defence of the ERM - you cannot fight the market it will beat you - if Carney is planning a repeat of that then we a proper up st creek and out paddle will be very eroded

Surely we have learnt that lesson?

s2art

18,937 posts

253 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10

Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
$ already at 1.345 & Euro at 1.21, not as much of drop as I had expected - short term bottom? Central Bankers will be out in force soon to settle markets.
yes agree short term $ bottom. I've got shorts on from 1.48's and not taking them off! they won't quite pay for the house depreciation but will help cover cost of alcohol to blot out the losses for a night smile

and tbh, love it when central banks line up and march against markets. reminds me of Arnhem....a bridge too far
Reminds me of the defence of the ERM - you cannot fight the market it will beat you - if Carney is planning a repeat of that then we a proper up st creek and out paddle will be very eroded

Surely we have learnt that lesson?
Of course he wont. Hell, he has wanted a weaker pound for some time. As do many other central banks wish they could do the same for their currency.

stevemiller

536 posts

165 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Steffan said:
Thought this BBC article was worth airing on the excetional consequences that will follow the Brext vote.

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

Getting a real handle onto the gravity of the decision is by no means easy. This is a multilevel problem for which there are no easy answers. The process of the UK leaving the EU will take literally years and years. But the die is cast the UK will leave the EU. I am just beginning to wonder whether some of the inevitable consequences to the EU will include a number of other EU members calling for decions on wether they wsh to exit the Euro? That might very well case further exits before we have actually left the EU, because of the timeframe. Interesting times we are experiencing. All because one hapless indivdual asked the question of the UK that he should never have asked?

Really difficult currently to estimate with any degree of accuracy, just how this will proceed. But proceed it will. We are leaving the EU and our politicians are totally incapable of facing the difficulties enitrely cused by their decades of joint failure to be aware of the serious concerns of the electorate. Perhaps the most direct and worst condemnation of modern politicans I have witnessed. Interesting times indeed!!
On the ask the question point do you think that Mr C never considered winning the last election outright and therefore never thought he would have to act on the suggestion?

toppstuff

13,698 posts

247 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
While focus is on the UK and the impending negotiations with Brussels, let us not forget there are other factors involved in our well-being, that are playing out at the same time. I refer to the state of some of the other Eurozone countries. Greece is not out of the woods yet. They and others, may well need a big injection of cash again.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Sterling then.


Gargamel

14,987 posts

261 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all

My assumption is that Sterling is falling based on the view that our economy will take a short and medium term hit on growth. Let's face it, no one is holding £ for the interest rates.

I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.

If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.

We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.

What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.