Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
My assumption is that Sterling is falling based on the view that our economy will take a short and medium term hit on growth. Let's face it, no one is holding £ for the interest rates.
I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.
If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.
We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.
What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.
Gargamel said:
My assumption is that Sterling is falling based on the view that our economy will take a short and medium term hit on growth. Let's face it, no one is holding £ for the interest rates.
I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.
If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.
We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.
What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.
Absolutely, the UK could end up being a safe haven in this truly global economy. The EU has not moved on and instead has become more authoritarian, we have taken the the 1st steps to do so. I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.
If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.
We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.
What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.
Sam All said:
Gargamel said:
My assumption is that Sterling is falling based on the view that our economy will take a short and medium term hit on growth. Let's face it, no one is holding £ for the interest rates.
I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.
If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.
We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.
What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.
Absolutely, the UK could end up being a safe haven in this truly global economy. The EU has not moved on and instead has become more authoritarian, we have taken the the 1st steps to do so. I'll admit I have had a positive view of Osbourn, he has done more good things than poor things, though his revenge budget idea was an obvious low point, and stretches credulity.
If they can move on Tax reform quickly then I think the UK could remain (no pun intended) a destination for many companies and businesses.
We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that.
What now for the Euro though? Germany won't want a relatively high Euro, the debt isn't going away, and the club will need to be prepared to put more in to cover the UK shortfall. It has a cost for them.
Not sure I trust George & Carney to do that though, I fear we'll carry on as before and be the flotsam tossed about by rough seas.
Gargamel said:
...We need to be a modern post European economy, flexible and an easy place to do business. I think we can become that...
I worry that the necessary 'freedom' to achieve that will be bitterly resisted by the usual crowd (who seemingly would rather protect one long term low paid career than see another forty created in new areas).What we need - right now - is leadership, imho. Who will wear the cap?
s2art said:
B'stard Child said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
kurt535 said:
Sam All said:
IMF says markets underestimated Brexit outcome - but there was no panic. Osborne making statement tomorrow morning - with aim to reassure markets. Unfortunately this boy has cried wolf too often.
thats right Sam, every trader worth their salt knows the levels the £ is going towards.and before I'm challenged for targets, £/$ wants to go through the 1.32. £/euro below 1.10Just watching Asia at the moment and the hachets are out for the £. Sad to see.
and tbh, love it when central banks line up and march against markets. reminds me of Arnhem....a bridge too far
t creek and out paddle will be very erodedSurely we have learnt that lesson?
contango said:
S&P, another expert, how far behind the curve were they in 2008?...Exactly!
Despite Moody's putting the Uk on -ve ratings watch last week, today 10 year Gilts closed comfortably under 1% yield. So the Uk can borrow 10 year money at less than 1%.
We've never had it so good!!!
& the S & P chappy mentioned the rating is still damn good 3rd high out of 23 ratings. Despite Moody's putting the Uk on -ve ratings watch last week, today 10 year Gilts closed comfortably under 1% yield. So the Uk can borrow 10 year money at less than 1%.
We've never had it so good!!!
Fitch has also downgraded to AA.
Very interesting situation developing over the Brexit vote. I entrely agree with the comments of Contango and Sam All on this subject. If the UK takes the opportunities this decision has given us then we can survive perfectly well. The same cannot be said for the failing states within the Euro. The fact is the EU and the Euro have the real problems to face.
Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
Steffan said:
Very interesting situation developing over the Brexit vote. I entrely agree with the comments of Contango and Sam All on this subject. If the UK takes the opportunities this decision has given us then we can survive perfectly well. The same cannot be said for the failing states within the Euro. The fact is the EU and the Euro have the real problems to face.
Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
Good points. We need action and direction now. Despite being in favour of remain, we have to invoke article 50 asap and negotiate favourable terms (including EEA access, to think otherwise is nuts - in effect we paid for another future option on freedom of movement but next time we flounce its easier to do one). I digress. Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
I think more poor performance in the EU will harden their stance, particularly as a weakened GBP hurts them. I'd expect ECB to cut again soon, and thus will really hurt the Eurozone banks. A lot. Soros is already predicting an orderly unwind of European Union, look what the Sorcerors apprentice (Cameron) started.
Oh, and even if the ECB doesn't hurt the banks that much, IFRS9 probably will. Loan loss provision through the roof, capital impact / costs up 33%.
Edited by stongle on Monday 27th June 22:45
stongle said:
Steffan said:
Very interesting situation developing over the Brexit vote. I entrely agree with the comments of Contango and Sam All on this subject. If the UK takes the opportunities this decision has given us then we can survive perfectly well. The same cannot be said for the failing states within the Euro. The fact is the EU and the Euro have the real problems to face.
Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
Good points. We need action and direction now. Despite being in favour of remain, we have to invoke article 50 asap and negotiate favourable terms (including EEA access, to think otherwise is nuts - in effect we paid for another future option on freedom of movement but next time we flounce its easier to do one). I digress. Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
I think more poor performance in the EU will harden their stance, particularly as a weakened GBP hurts them. I'd expect ECB to cut again soon, and thus will really hurt the Eurozone banks. A lot. Soros is already predicting an orderly unwind of European Union, look what the Sorcerors apprentice (Cameron) started.
Nick Robinson as just posted this on the BBC. Worth a read I think and very much aware of the need for real leaders!
See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
Axionknight said:
I didn't understand the third paragraph of your post there at all Stongle 
Ah! It's a technical change in accounting rules. Basically, banks have to hold increase loan loss provisions / capital impairment charges for bad debt. In very simple terms you take a charge against your expected loss on debt on a 12 month basis (so a solvency buffer vs credit losses), not the full amount for distressed or bad performing debt (kinda assumes the bad debt still has some value). IFRS9 requires you take the full impairment charge straight away on the total debt, effectively an idiosyncratic loss. Or in other words, if you are holding a lot of European peripheral debt (Greek shipping loans for instance), your about to get f**ked. Of course ifrs9 affects everyone, but Eurozone banks are more exposed to stinky debt.
stongle said:
Axionknight said:
I didn't understand the third paragraph of your post there at all Stongle
Ah! It's a technical change in accounting rules. Basically, banks have to hold increase loan loss provisions / capital impairment charges for bad debt. In very simple terms you take a charge against your expected loss on debt on a 12 month basis (so a solvency buffer vs credit losses), not the full amount for distressed or bad performing debt (kinda assumes the bad debt still has some value). IFRS9 requires you take the full impairment charge straight away on the total debt, effectively an idiosyncratic loss. Or in other words, if you are holding a lot of European peripheral debt (Greek shipping loans for instance), your about to get f**ked. Of course ifrs9 affects everyone, but Eurozone banks are more exposed to stinky debt.
Axionknight said:
Aaaaah, cheers for the education! 
Good to see a dialogue on ths thread sharing information. Never forget: knowedge is power!Which given the complete paucity of real understanding, shown on all sides of the House of Commons, demonstrates the central problem that the poor electorate face currently. There is literally no one in the House of Commons who has the real understanding or personal gravitas to be capable of managing the situation.
The Tory's are headess chickens seeking a saviour who will restore some semblance of being an effective government and the Labour party is totally self absorbed in internicine strife and utterly incapable of dealing wth anything whatsoever. For all his most serious failings TB wth Alistar Cameron, Mandelson and John Prescott kept the lid on internicine Labour wars for 12 years. Sadly I suspect Corbyn enjoys them.
Real probem at the moment is to find a leader who can get the position stabilised and manage the huge changes needed? Boris has been too damaged by the result leading the Brexit camaign to be elected by the Tories! Could be a unity government across the House is the way forward. Not whilst Corbyn is there I fear. The country needs honest strong very able managers. None in UK politics so far as I can see! All to busy feathering ther own nests and looking for another gravy train for themselves. UK politics has become a self promotion game.
Invoking article 50 quickly is the last thing we should do. Cameron resigning has given time to the process which is badly needed whilst we gather our team, mainly people you will never hear of.
It's a game of Poker right now on a very large scale, the last thing the EU wants is us to hold out, hence the calls for urgent enactment, which is precisely why we must do the opposite.
Chamberlain gets a slating for his "peace in our time" piece of paper, but what that allowed us to do was prepare for war without fighting it totally unprepared, this situation is no different in that respect IMHO.
It's a game of Poker right now on a very large scale, the last thing the EU wants is us to hold out, hence the calls for urgent enactment, which is precisely why we must do the opposite.
Chamberlain gets a slating for his "peace in our time" piece of paper, but what that allowed us to do was prepare for war without fighting it totally unprepared, this situation is no different in that respect IMHO.
We are in the driving seat for once,lets hope the media dont spin this into a meltdown they seem to be trying very hard!Hopefully the LHD market will capitalize a bit call me selfish,great to read Steffans post Ive not posted on here for a while,however I'm finding the credit risk downgrades quite draining its seems manipulation and fear being the driving force!
G
G
Steffan said:
Very interesting situation developing over the Brexit vote. I entrely agree with the comments of Contango and Sam All on this subject. If the UK takes the opportunities this decision has given us then we can survive perfectly well. The same cannot be said for the failing states within the Euro. The fact is the EU and the Euro have the real problems to face.
Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
It's not going to happen imho. I said back on Saturday in another thread :Greece with its transparent total abject insolvency still borrowing Bilions and Billions more. That cannot go on! France with its dead duck banks, burgeoning public sector and nonsense retrement packages for civil servants with the entire French farming industry failing and being bailed out by the Common Agricultural subsidy. All which are totally unaffordable.
Spain and Portugal with steadily withering economies and ludicrous youth unemployment! Italy with half the entire country relying totally on the productive industrial other half to supply their every need! The Vatican bankers fiddling in all directions and the Italian banks all totally insolvent with desperate failing lending portfolios. Madness describes this best.
My concern in this is now focussed on the most serious difficulty for the UK! The idiots running the country are totally out of their depths. That is why this result was such a huge shock to them. Osborne has become like a wet lettuce. Cameron is yesterday's man and already looking for new pastures. Theresa May is married to the G4S prime mover which says it all about her principles, really. Hence the constant Government contracts. Please!! Boris is pussy footing around trying to engineer the right moment to announce his candidacy. Where are the real players when we need them?
The question is how are we going to get the changes we demanded (by majority) in our democratic Referendum. We need effective concerned motivated leaders with a through grasp of the needs of our country in place and working flat out to ensure our security. What we have is disinterested, disenfranchised politicians who were so out of touch that they really did not see the mood of the country at all. Entirely their fault!
The concerns for this lot will be, where have my gold plated pension gone to and where can I find another easy number where I can swan about in my Lear Jet at the taxpayers expense. These fools are totally in shock from their careers and comfortable secure lifestyles falling about their ears. They are NOT the individuals to lead our country. Where do we go now?
Major changes have already resulted from this decision, the entire direction of the country has change and many, many more must follow this decision. But who will step into the void and actually grasp the level of change needed and effect those changes is the question that we all need to consider. What now I really do wonder!!
I said:
My predictions :
- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.
I'll bet money on it.- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.
jsf said:
Chamberlain gets a slating for his "peace in our time" piece of paper, but what that allowed us to do was prepare for war without fighting it totally unprepared, this situation is no different in that respect IMHO.
True but Churchill had been campaigning for rearmament for years. As soon as Cameron set himself on a referendum course he should have had people modelling both outcomes and been planning accordingly. Pretty obvious this wasn't done (maybe some last minute effort). Cameron's problem is he couldn't conceive of losing. I think he can take no for an answer but this feels like the first time he's heard the bloody word. Does no one in government play "what if"?Norfolkit said:
True but Churchill had been campaigning for rearmament for years. As soon as Cameron set himself on a referendum course he should have had people modelling both outcomes and been planning accordingly. Pretty obvious this wasn't done (maybe some last minute effort). Cameron's problem is he couldn't conceive of losing. I think he can take no for an answer but this feels like the first time he's heard the bloody word. Does no one in government play "what if"?
This is the single biggest problem with politicians today, typified by the EU and the EU supporting UK politicians.Everyone talks of a Government being voted INTO POWER. Wrong!
The electorate has the power and gives authority to elected politicians to act on their behalf to run the administration of the Country and deal with ongoing global concerns that affect the Country's functioning and wellbeing.
Cameron et al should have impartially presented the facts about how the EU works and how we are tied into it, as well as exploring in detail the consequences for both leaving and staying, as best and honestly as they could.
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