Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
turbobloke said:
EU's prison warder (Tusk again) has said the EU must chastise the UK for daring to leave the crumbling bloc. Anything else would be "lethal" for the EU as it could inspire other nation states to follow suit.
Doesn't he see that the very fact that he makes that statement demonstrates that the EU has failed and convinces every 'leave' voter that they made the right decision, whatever the consequences?fblm said:
fblm said:
Andy Zarse said:
<Major from Fawlty Towers voice> No! No, I won't have that! How dare you call him a Belgian drunk!
He's from Luxembourg...
Sorry I got a bit confused because everyone keeps mentioning the warHe's from Luxembourg...
<Basil Fawlty> YOU STARTED IT!
I
Indeed! There is the real dichotomy within the selfish and self serving attitude and grasping approach that lies at the very heart of the EU protagonists who seek their continued fortune on the gravy train at the very heart of the EU. Exposed for all to see. Bully Boy tactics like this have no place whatsoever whatsoever within Democracies!
I really am beginning to question whether the EU will begin to nosedive, as the selfsh and self serving concept that it currently displays is gradually exposed for what it really has become. Rich pickings continued for the EU Bureacrats and unelected demigods. I really do think that as the Brexit process speeds up, there will a continued and rising stram of less than enamoured EU voters who begin to press for recognition that life outside the EU could be a whole lot better.
The solvent Northern states are the ones to watch. The reality of the nonsense being wrapped as good economics by the EU, in keeping the hopless failing states within the EU has got to be paid for by someone. With the UK leaving, more of that debt has been foisted on the shoulders of the remaining Solvent EU states. As that become apparent, which it will, I do think that more and more taxpayers are going to call time on yet another burden for them to service.
REALIST123 said:
turbobloke said:
EU's prison warder (Tusk again) has said the EU must chastise the UK for daring to leave the crumbling bloc. Anything else would be "lethal" for the EU as it could inspire other nation states to follow suit.
Doesn't he see that the very fact that he makes that statement demonstrates that the EU has failed and convinces every 'leave' voter that they made the right decision, whatever the consequences?I really am beginning to question whether the EU will begin to nosedive, as the selfsh and self serving concept that it currently displays is gradually exposed for what it really has become. Rich pickings continued for the EU Bureacrats and unelected demigods. I really do think that as the Brexit process speeds up, there will a continued and rising stram of less than enamoured EU voters who begin to press for recognition that life outside the EU could be a whole lot better.
The solvent Northern states are the ones to watch. The reality of the nonsense being wrapped as good economics by the EU, in keeping the hopless failing states within the EU has got to be paid for by someone. With the UK leaving, more of that debt has been foisted on the shoulders of the remaining Solvent EU states. As that become apparent, which it will, I do think that more and more taxpayers are going to call time on yet another burden for them to service.
A somewhat peripheral angle on the original question posed by Steffan about the survival of the Euro but something that ties in to the survival of the broadened European political territory dream which, should it fail, could well result in the demise of the Euro as we know it.
Events in Turkey, a country that ostensibly wishes to join "Europe" and therefore, according to current joining rules, the Euro, clearly suggest that it is a nation with a large population that is quite notably split between a secular leaning sector and a religious leaning sector - in this case primarily Islamic.
The current political leadership is, by all accounts, quite ruthless and more than capable of manipulating things to suit its own ends. In that respect the people involved may appeal to the power brokers in Brussels who perhaps see themselves in the same light. That the current leadership seems to support IS may not be so attractive to the rest of Europe yet for now it appears to be tolerated for some obscure reason.
Turkey has a long border with the troubled areas of Iraq and Syria. The tribal politics of the region are probably beyond the understanding of most people and defy logic. Not so different in outcome to Afghanistan really except that they seems to be more tribal and political than religious based.
In the middle of the embattled area are the Kurd/Yazidi peoples who seem to be in a state of permanent conflict with everyone. That they have long been seen a troublesome by Turkey - possibly because Turkey was never too keen on them anyway - might explain why Turkey supports IS who are more than happy to pick a fight with the Kurds.
"The West", notably Europe and the U.S. seems to see thing differently although how that works with NATO membership in the mix must be interesting. That said Turkey and Greece have disagreed with just about everything for centuries yet both are member of NATO.
Of course Russia also has some interests in the area as do the rest of the Middle Eastern countries though you probably need to be an insider to begin to understand how all of that pans out.
SO, in effect, Syria and Northern Iraq has changed from and area of relative wealth and prosperity to a second battleground training area along the lines of Afghanistan but involving a population that one would probably consider to be, over all, more "advanced" in terms of "Western" ways than the Afghans. Advanced in terms of what we might consider "civilised". And they are right on the borders of Europe bar the waters of the Mediterranean.
Place Turkey, politically and economically in Europe and the land border would be exactly where the never ending Kurdish conflict has been in progress for so long.
How would "Europe" deal with that? What does the previously developed and potentially wealthy, in relative terms, area of land along that border look like after years of conflict post Saddam and the emergence of IS for years of what seems to to be outright ethnic cleansing?
I came across this video documentary made by a young Canadian photographer who has been making a name for himself in many different ways since he appeared on the scene aged about 16 a decade ago.
I think it provides insights to what is going on in a way that the media are unable to offer.
It provides a feel for the place where thins conflict is played out, show what must once have existed there and how so much of it seems to have been destroyed. What we think of as civilisation is truly flimsy. I doubt the European "culture" could survive in the way these tribes keep their cultures and community alive.
This is, more or less, on our doorstep. It helps to explain why so many families from the area have moved and continue to move in the direction of Europe although it does nothing to explain the similar movement of mostly young males from parts of Africa.
For its own historic reasons Turkey seems to feel a need to support IS, help create a problem with refugees that it cannot or will not deal with locally and then twist Europe's arm for money (that goes to IS?) to "deal with" the problem.
Would that approach change if they were to be absorbed into a wider Europe?
Or is this another reason for the Europe Project to fall apart and the Euro, as currently deployed, with it?
Here's what the Syria/Iraq/IS conflict legacy looks like on the ground. Its a remarkable video from an entirely personal and solo project by a young man who seems perceptive far beyond his years.
https://vimeo.com/129935570
How much would it take for our civilisation to head the same way and would "Europe" really prove to be a construct that could prevent such a collapse?
Events in Turkey, a country that ostensibly wishes to join "Europe" and therefore, according to current joining rules, the Euro, clearly suggest that it is a nation with a large population that is quite notably split between a secular leaning sector and a religious leaning sector - in this case primarily Islamic.
The current political leadership is, by all accounts, quite ruthless and more than capable of manipulating things to suit its own ends. In that respect the people involved may appeal to the power brokers in Brussels who perhaps see themselves in the same light. That the current leadership seems to support IS may not be so attractive to the rest of Europe yet for now it appears to be tolerated for some obscure reason.
Turkey has a long border with the troubled areas of Iraq and Syria. The tribal politics of the region are probably beyond the understanding of most people and defy logic. Not so different in outcome to Afghanistan really except that they seems to be more tribal and political than religious based.
In the middle of the embattled area are the Kurd/Yazidi peoples who seem to be in a state of permanent conflict with everyone. That they have long been seen a troublesome by Turkey - possibly because Turkey was never too keen on them anyway - might explain why Turkey supports IS who are more than happy to pick a fight with the Kurds.
"The West", notably Europe and the U.S. seems to see thing differently although how that works with NATO membership in the mix must be interesting. That said Turkey and Greece have disagreed with just about everything for centuries yet both are member of NATO.
Of course Russia also has some interests in the area as do the rest of the Middle Eastern countries though you probably need to be an insider to begin to understand how all of that pans out.
SO, in effect, Syria and Northern Iraq has changed from and area of relative wealth and prosperity to a second battleground training area along the lines of Afghanistan but involving a population that one would probably consider to be, over all, more "advanced" in terms of "Western" ways than the Afghans. Advanced in terms of what we might consider "civilised". And they are right on the borders of Europe bar the waters of the Mediterranean.
Place Turkey, politically and economically in Europe and the land border would be exactly where the never ending Kurdish conflict has been in progress for so long.
How would "Europe" deal with that? What does the previously developed and potentially wealthy, in relative terms, area of land along that border look like after years of conflict post Saddam and the emergence of IS for years of what seems to to be outright ethnic cleansing?
I came across this video documentary made by a young Canadian photographer who has been making a name for himself in many different ways since he appeared on the scene aged about 16 a decade ago.
I think it provides insights to what is going on in a way that the media are unable to offer.
It provides a feel for the place where thins conflict is played out, show what must once have existed there and how so much of it seems to have been destroyed. What we think of as civilisation is truly flimsy. I doubt the European "culture" could survive in the way these tribes keep their cultures and community alive.
This is, more or less, on our doorstep. It helps to explain why so many families from the area have moved and continue to move in the direction of Europe although it does nothing to explain the similar movement of mostly young males from parts of Africa.
For its own historic reasons Turkey seems to feel a need to support IS, help create a problem with refugees that it cannot or will not deal with locally and then twist Europe's arm for money (that goes to IS?) to "deal with" the problem.
Would that approach change if they were to be absorbed into a wider Europe?
Or is this another reason for the Europe Project to fall apart and the Euro, as currently deployed, with it?
Here's what the Syria/Iraq/IS conflict legacy looks like on the ground. Its a remarkable video from an entirely personal and solo project by a young man who seems perceptive far beyond his years.
https://vimeo.com/129935570
How much would it take for our civilisation to head the same way and would "Europe" really prove to be a construct that could prevent such a collapse?
thanks for the link to that film longq. you are spot on with your assessment of the young bloke that made it. i have to say the bit of film around the 24 min mark reminded me of tehran in the late 70's at the start of the iranian revolution. i was only a kid around 8 or 9, but i can remember going up on the roof of our place and hearing the explosions and watching plumes of smoke climb across the city. (what my parents were thinking i have no idea !)
a surreal situation where what was only a few days previous (to me as a kid) a vibrant busy city with people going about their daily lives turn to a situation where people were scared and every day life changed completely.being so young at the time it was hard to understand what was going on, but i could feel the change in atmosphere toward fear and distrust.
despite living in the city it felt like being outside observing just how fragile the civilised life we take for granted here in the uk can be elsewhere.
a surreal situation where what was only a few days previous (to me as a kid) a vibrant busy city with people going about their daily lives turn to a situation where people were scared and every day life changed completely.being so young at the time it was hard to understand what was going on, but i could feel the change in atmosphere toward fear and distrust.
despite living in the city it felt like being outside observing just how fragile the civilised life we take for granted here in the uk can be elsewhere.
Digga said:
fblm said:
fblm said:
Andy Zarse said:
<Major from Fawlty Towers voice> No! No, I won't have that! How dare you call him a Belgian drunk!
He's from Luxembourg...
Sorry I got a bit confused because everyone keeps mentioning the warHe's from Luxembourg...
<Basil Fawlty> YOU STARTED IT!
Things aren't going the secular democratic way in Turkey it seems
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693828/Tu...
What a mess.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693828/Tu...
What a mess.
Good video there Longq. It does encourage me too see the strength of resolve to fight extremism, but looking at events unfolding in Turkey is gravely worrying. I've long suspected Erdogan is doing avnicevtrade (oil, in particular) with IS and that it almost benefits him to perpetuate the chaos and act, literally, as a gatekeeper.
LongQ said:
A somewhat peripheral angle on the original question posed by Steffan about the survival of the Euro but something that ties in to the survival of the broadened European political territory dream which, should it fail, could well result in the demise of the Euro as we know it.
Events in Turkey, a country that ostensibly wishes to join "Europe" and therefore, according to current joining rules, the Euro, clearly suggest that it is a nation with a large population that is quite notably split between a secular leaning sector and a religious leaning sector - in this case primarily Islamic.
The current political leadership is, by all accounts, quite ruthless and more than capable of manipulating things to suit its own ends. In that respect the people involved may appeal to the power brokers in Brussels who perhaps see themselves in the same light. That the current leadership seems to support IS may not be so attractive to the rest of Europe yet for now it appears to be tolerated for some obscure reason.
Turkey has a long border with the troubled areas of Iraq and Syria. The tribal politics of the region are probably beyond the understanding of most people and defy logic. Not so different in outcome to Afghanistan really except that they seems to be more tribal and political than religious based.
In the middle of the embattled area are the Kurd/Yazidi peoples who seem to be in a state of permanent conflict with everyone. That they have long been seen a troublesome by Turkey - possibly because Turkey was never too keen on them anyway - might explain why Turkey supports IS who are more than happy to pick a fight with the Kurds.
"The West", notably Europe and the U.S. seems to see thing differently although how that works with NATO membership in the mix must be interesting. That said Turkey and Greece have disagreed with just about everything for centuries yet both are member of NATO.
Of course Russia also has some interests in the area as do the rest of the Middle Eastern countries though you probably need to be an insider to begin to understand how all of that pans out.
SO, in effect, Syria and Northern Iraq has changed from and area of relative wealth and prosperity to a second battleground training area along the lines of Afghanistan but involving a population that one would probably consider to be, over all, more "advanced" in terms of "Western" ways than the Afghans. Advanced in terms of what we might consider "civilised". And they are right on the borders of Europe bar the waters of the Mediterranean.
Place Turkey, politically and economically in Europe and the land border would be exactly where the never ending Kurdish conflict has been in progress for so long.
How would "Europe" deal with that? What does the previously developed and potentially wealthy, in relative terms, area of land along that border look like after years of conflict post Saddam and the emergence of IS for years of what seems to to be outright ethnic cleansing?
I came across this video documentary made by a young Canadian photographer who has been making a name for himself in many different ways since he appeared on the scene aged about 16 a decade ago.
I think it provides insights to what is going on in a way that the media are unable to offer.
It provides a feel for the place where thins conflict is played out, show what must once have existed there and how so much of it seems to have been destroyed. What we think of as civilisation is truly flimsy. I doubt the European "culture" could survive in the way these tribes keep their cultures and community alive.
This is, more or less, on our doorstep. It helps to explain why so many families from the area have moved and continue to move in the direction of Europe although it does nothing to explain the similar movement of mostly young males from parts of Africa.
For its own historic reasons Turkey seems to feel a need to support IS, help create a problem with refugees that it cannot or will not deal with locally and then twist Europe's arm for money (that goes to IS?) to "deal with" the problem.
Would that approach change if they were to be absorbed into a wider Europe?
Or is this another reason for the Europe Project to fall apart and the Euro, as currently deployed, with it?
Here's what the Syria/Iraq/IS conflict legacy looks like on the ground. Its a remarkable video from an entirely personal and solo project by a young man who seems perceptive far beyond his years.
https://vimeo.com/129935570
How much would it take for our civilisation to head the same way and would "Europe" really prove to be a construct that could prevent such a collapse?
I just have to comment upon the outstanding post above, exactly way I hoped could be achieved, on ths thread. Absolutely excellent informed opinion an d much better than the rubbish rerunning of political nonsense in the Media!Events in Turkey, a country that ostensibly wishes to join "Europe" and therefore, according to current joining rules, the Euro, clearly suggest that it is a nation with a large population that is quite notably split between a secular leaning sector and a religious leaning sector - in this case primarily Islamic.
The current political leadership is, by all accounts, quite ruthless and more than capable of manipulating things to suit its own ends. In that respect the people involved may appeal to the power brokers in Brussels who perhaps see themselves in the same light. That the current leadership seems to support IS may not be so attractive to the rest of Europe yet for now it appears to be tolerated for some obscure reason.
Turkey has a long border with the troubled areas of Iraq and Syria. The tribal politics of the region are probably beyond the understanding of most people and defy logic. Not so different in outcome to Afghanistan really except that they seems to be more tribal and political than religious based.
In the middle of the embattled area are the Kurd/Yazidi peoples who seem to be in a state of permanent conflict with everyone. That they have long been seen a troublesome by Turkey - possibly because Turkey was never too keen on them anyway - might explain why Turkey supports IS who are more than happy to pick a fight with the Kurds.
"The West", notably Europe and the U.S. seems to see thing differently although how that works with NATO membership in the mix must be interesting. That said Turkey and Greece have disagreed with just about everything for centuries yet both are member of NATO.
Of course Russia also has some interests in the area as do the rest of the Middle Eastern countries though you probably need to be an insider to begin to understand how all of that pans out.
SO, in effect, Syria and Northern Iraq has changed from and area of relative wealth and prosperity to a second battleground training area along the lines of Afghanistan but involving a population that one would probably consider to be, over all, more "advanced" in terms of "Western" ways than the Afghans. Advanced in terms of what we might consider "civilised". And they are right on the borders of Europe bar the waters of the Mediterranean.
Place Turkey, politically and economically in Europe and the land border would be exactly where the never ending Kurdish conflict has been in progress for so long.
How would "Europe" deal with that? What does the previously developed and potentially wealthy, in relative terms, area of land along that border look like after years of conflict post Saddam and the emergence of IS for years of what seems to to be outright ethnic cleansing?
I came across this video documentary made by a young Canadian photographer who has been making a name for himself in many different ways since he appeared on the scene aged about 16 a decade ago.
I think it provides insights to what is going on in a way that the media are unable to offer.
It provides a feel for the place where thins conflict is played out, show what must once have existed there and how so much of it seems to have been destroyed. What we think of as civilisation is truly flimsy. I doubt the European "culture" could survive in the way these tribes keep their cultures and community alive.
This is, more or less, on our doorstep. It helps to explain why so many families from the area have moved and continue to move in the direction of Europe although it does nothing to explain the similar movement of mostly young males from parts of Africa.
For its own historic reasons Turkey seems to feel a need to support IS, help create a problem with refugees that it cannot or will not deal with locally and then twist Europe's arm for money (that goes to IS?) to "deal with" the problem.
Would that approach change if they were to be absorbed into a wider Europe?
Or is this another reason for the Europe Project to fall apart and the Euro, as currently deployed, with it?
Here's what the Syria/Iraq/IS conflict legacy looks like on the ground. Its a remarkable video from an entirely personal and solo project by a young man who seems perceptive far beyond his years.
https://vimeo.com/129935570
How much would it take for our civilisation to head the same way and would "Europe" really prove to be a construct that could prevent such a collapse?
Pressed for time now flying off to Amsterdam, just a short visit, but I must commend AndyZarse and others in the BF reminiscences all very good fun, before I join the Q.
So is the Bank Italia crisis coming to the boil? We know August is traditional the Euro crunch month, whenever there is a proper set of terrible financial news, it tends to come in the summer.
Italian banks hold about E300bn in bad loans.
EU rules mean bondholders and shareholders should be in for a short back and sides before anyone else. However Renzi would like to get re elected next year, so is unlikely to wipe out pensioners, and a large number of Italian voters.
Will he go for state aid first ?
Digga said:
Good video there Longq. It does encourage me too see the strength of resolve to fight extremism, but looking at events unfolding in Turkey is gravely worrying. I've long suspected Erdogan is doing avnicevtrade (oil, in particular) with IS and that it almost benefits him to perpetuate the chaos and act, literally, as a gatekeeper.
Thanks Digga and everyone else for the kind comments. That there are some very special young people out there is heartening. I think many more could be found if only they were offered the opportunity .... but that's another angle on the thread.
There are some people suggesting that much of what has been happening very recently in Turkey may be orchestrated, in so far as these things can be orchestrated, by the current "government". Not a dissimilar situation to the potential that is perceived for Europe to be manipulating EZ problems in order to obtain greater influence for political and monetary unity.
I doubt the Turkish government will win over the doubters by re-introducing the death penalty as has been suggested on their behalf. But I would not be surprised if they were to do it anyway.
I think Europe-wide guidance that Turkey is an ill-advised holiday location should be promoted immediately. Anything else would be entirely unacceptable under health and safety rules would it not?
LongQ said:
I think Europe-wide guidance that Turkey is an ill-advised holiday location should be promoted immediately. Anything else would be entirely unacceptable under health and safety rules would it not?
Flew back from Turkey 3 weeks ago. Just booked flights for next June. Nothing to concern me at this moment though I will obviously keep my eye on things.Jockman said:
LongQ said:
I think Europe-wide guidance that Turkey is an ill-advised holiday location should be promoted immediately. Anything else would be entirely unacceptable under health and safety rules would it not?
Flew back from Turkey 3 weeks ago. Just booked flights for next June. Nothing to concern me at this moment though I will obviously keep my eye on things.LongQ said:
Jockman said:
LongQ said:
I think Europe-wide guidance that Turkey is an ill-advised holiday location should be promoted immediately. Anything else would be entirely unacceptable under health and safety rules would it not?
Flew back from Turkey 3 weeks ago. Just booked flights for next June. Nothing to concern me at this moment though I will obviously keep my eye on things.Jockman said:
LongQ said:
Jockman said:
LongQ said:
I think Europe-wide guidance that Turkey is an ill-advised holiday location should be promoted immediately. Anything else would be entirely unacceptable under health and safety rules would it not?
Flew back from Turkey 3 weeks ago. Just booked flights for next June. Nothing to concern me at this moment though I will obviously keep my eye on things.I attended a charity event yesterday afternoon. Motor Sport themed.
Lovely weather, good turnout.
In previous years they have run some events - a managed soap box derby for the kids using a slight slope available to them. Soapboxes provided and carefully maintained.
And a "Pit Stop wheel change" competition which involved 2 person teams swapping the front wheels on a non-running open wheeled racing car. The test was run against the clock. Very laid back and good fun. Always dealt with sensibly by the contestants.
They could not get sensibly priced insurance cover for those sort of events this year so could not run them. In fact I have to wonder if was the case that they could not get cover at any price.
I sometimes wonder whether generations brought up in tomes of extended risk aversion will themselves be incredibly risk averse or whether lacking any true personal experience of proper risk will simply take on anything as adults because they don't know not to or simply because it feels like a natural freedom previously denied to them. The psychology of growing in to adulthood deployed large without any balancing experience to moderate actions.
Will people back away from conflict even if they risk being trampled to a submissive state?
Or will they defend themselves because they have no proper concept of the consequences of failure?
DB profits down 98%: http://news.sky.com/story/deutsche-bank-profits-fa...
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