Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

rovermorris999

5,202 posts

189 months

Tuesday 9th August 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
In one regard, it is perhaps good and correct that what is allowed for a top-tier EU member, France, is also being allowed for PIIGS. on the other hand, where does it leave the fiscal probity of the Euro zone?
It's not often you see 'fiscal probity' and 'euro zone' in the same sentence!

Digga

40,317 posts

283 months

Tuesday 9th August 2016
quotequote all
rovermorris999 said:
Digga said:
In one regard, it is perhaps good and correct that what is allowed for a top-tier EU member, France, is also being allowed for PIIGS. on the other hand, where does it leave the fiscal probity of the Euro zone?
It's not often you see 'fiscal probity' and 'euro zone' in the same sentence!
No, 'anal probity' perhaps.


Tony427

2,873 posts

233 months

Monday 15th August 2016
quotequote all
Was on holiday in Southern France last week and popped over to Turin and saw the North south Euro divide illustrated in simple terms.

France was expensive, well kept and , well expensive.

Italy was very much more "down at heel" and had the aura of a country in decline. A couple of years ago I was in Rome and noticed how many people were dodging paying their fares in the metro and how lax fare payment enforcement appeared.

I was in Turin last week and on the trams, no one, I mean no one paid. Apart from me as I made it a point of principal.

The trams were packed, no guards, no enforcecemnt, only one validation machine per tram and thus no one could endore their non existent ticket if they wanted.
It appears that the Italian government have simply decided that they will provide free public transport for the masses in their large cities via the back door.

Can you see this happening in Germany or Holland?

This cultural difference between North and South is a microcosm of why the Euro won't work and cannot last.

How long will tram, metro and bus travellers in the north of Europe pay for their Italian compatriots to travel for free? And why should they?

Cheers,

Tony



chris watton

22,477 posts

260 months

Monday 15th August 2016
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
Was on holiday in Southern France last week and popped over to Turin and saw the North south Euro divide illustrated in simple terms.

France was expensive, well kept and , well expensive.

Italy was very much more "down at heel" and had the aura of a country in decline. A couple of years ago I was in Rome and noticed how many people were dodging paying their fares in the metro and how lax fare payment enforcement appeared.

I was in Turin last week and on the trams, no one, I mean no one paid. Apart from me as I made it a point of principal.

The trams were packed, no guards, no enforcecemnt, only one validation machine per tram and thus no one could endore their non existent ticket if they wanted.
It appears that the Italian government have simply decided that they will provide free public transport for the masses in their large cities via the back door.

Can you see this happening in Germany or Holland?

This cultural difference between North and South is a microcosm of why the Euro won't work and cannot last.

How long will tram, metro and bus travellers in the north of Europe pay for their Italian compatriots to travel for free? And why should they?

Cheers,

Tony


That may not be the case. I worked in Turin for three years, and lived 50 miles away. Commuting by car was costing me around 500 Euros per month in fuel and toll charges. However, by train it was less than 100 Euros per month. Each month, I bought my train/travel pass (had to have your photo on it). Included with this pass was free access to trams and buses once I reached Turin.

Perhaps that was why you thought no-one was paying.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Monday 15th August 2016
quotequote all
Worth five minutes of your time for a quick analysis of where the economy of Italy is currently sitting, (waiting outside the high dependency unit), where it has been since the Euro was adopted (hell and back) and where it is heading (nowhere fast except its own fundament).

Briefly too, a look at Italian banks and the (hilarious if it wasn't true) confusion over what officially constitutes a "bad loan"...

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/08...


Tony427

2,873 posts

233 months

Monday 15th August 2016
quotequote all
chris watton said:
Tony427 said:
Was on holiday in Southern France last week and popped over to Turin and saw the North south Euro divide illustrated in simple terms.

France was expensive, well kept and , well expensive.

Italy was very much more "down at heel" and had the aura of a country in decline. A couple of years ago I was in Rome and noticed how many people were dodging paying their fares in the metro and how lax fare payment enforcement appeared.

I was in Turin last week and on the trams, no one, I mean no one paid. Apart from me as I made it a point of principal.

The trams were packed, no guards, no enforcecemnt, only one validation machine per tram and thus no one could endore their non existent ticket if they wanted.
It appears that the Italian government have simply decided that they will provide free public transport for the masses in their large cities via the back door.

Can you see this happening in Germany or Holland?

This cultural difference between North and South is a microcosm of why the Euro won't work and cannot last.

How long will tram, metro and bus travellers in the north of Europe pay for their Italian compatriots to travel for free? And why should they?

Cheers,

Tony


That may not be the case. I worked in Turin for three years, and lived 50 miles away. Commuting by car was costing me around 500 Euros per month in fuel and toll charges. However, by train it was less than 100 Euros per month. Each month, I bought my train/travel pass (had to have your photo on it). Included with this pass was free access to trams and buses once I reached Turin.

Perhaps that was why you thought no-one was paying.
That would mean that the Turin tram/ train operator has 100% season ticket coverage, and I am sure that most if not all the tram occupants were not your typical season ticket holders. We were travelling with another couple and the lady was dripping in diamonds ( its her "thing" ) and I was bricking it on her behalf.

The trams also have an electronic "oyster card" type of operation which needs to be validated /logged onto once in the tram. Again no one I saw used this electronic validation system.

The very welcoming hotel manager sold us the tram tuckets when we asked how to get into Turin and was surprised when we didn't bring them back unused.

We were also approached by beggars on the trams so perhaps they also had a season ticket?

Actually, it could be I was somewhat coloured by the route we were on ( number 4 Tram ) , and on the more business orientated routes the clientele may well be season ticket holders like yourself. I also presume that the trains had a higher level of ticket policing at the platform/ station gates.

We still liked Turin though. Definitely worth a visit.

Chers,

Tony

Cheers,

Tony







Huntsman

8,054 posts

250 months

Monday 22nd August 2016
quotequote all

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Monday 22nd August 2016
quotequote all
Huntsman said:
Saw it. Some good points. Some not so, but generally more right than wrong IMO.

Digga

40,317 posts

283 months

Monday 22nd August 2016
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Huntsman said:
Saw it. Some good points. Some not so, but generally more right than wrong IMO.
People like Juncker and Barroso have been strutting about like this could not and would not ever happen to/in the EU. I do wonder whether there may be sufficient crisis in future to purge the socialists from the EU and galvanise sufficient reform to see even the UK re-commit.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Monday 22nd August 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Andy Zarse said:
Huntsman said:
Saw it. Some good points. Some not so, but generally more right than wrong IMO.
People like Juncker and Barroso have been strutting about like this could not and would not ever happen to/in the EU. I do wonder whether there may be sufficient crisis in future to purge the socialists from the EU and galvanise sufficient reform to see even the UK re-commit.
They would fight tooth and nail against it. Too much to lose, reputationally and personally. Jean-Claude Drunker is nothing if not a strutting peacock, an awful puffed-up toad of a man. Merkel musy have been an idiot to apoint him... of wait etc.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Tuesday 23rd August 2016
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Digga said:
Andy Zarse said:
Huntsman said:
Saw it. Some good points. Some not so, but generally more right than wrong IMO.
People like Juncker and Barroso have been strutting about like this could not and would not ever happen to/in the EU. I do wonder whether there may be sufficient crisis in future to purge the socialists from the EU and galvanise sufficient reform to see even the UK re-commit.
They would fight tooth and nail against it. Too much to lose, reputationally and personally. Jean-Claude Drunker is nothing if not a strutting peacock, an awful puffed-up toad of a man. Merkel musy have been an idiot to apoint him... of wait etc.
The comments and concerns expressed by Digga and Andy Zarse are both apposite and informed which certainly is a good deal more than anything the mainstream Media Curcus can manage. To paraphrase one of my favourite writers, Conan Doyle, if we exclude the impossible what remains must be the truth.

To my mind it is becoming impossible for the EU to maintain the fraudulent QE supporting of Greece and at the sme time devise more and more fraudulent methods of hiding the truth of the consequences of the failing EU Banks in France and Italy and not forgetting Deutshebank which is also steadily failing. There are so many failing financial institutions within the EU that inevitably the crunch will come.

The EU leaders can maintain their rhetoric as much as they like. By the EU cannot (and has not!) actually create the growth needed within these failing ecnomies as the depressing financial statistics demonstrate so resoundingly. The Brexit decision has undoubtedy rung a number of bells within the EU electorate across Europe and the tide is turning against the EU. More and more concerns and doubts are visibly rising to the fore.

Matter of time I think. The reality of the complete nonsense at the centre of the EU is doubtedly beginning to dawn IMO. Changes are coming whether the self serving EU leaders want them or not!



Gargamel

14,988 posts

261 months

Tuesday 23rd August 2016
quotequote all
I am struggling to find much in the news on the Italy Referendum

what are they actually voting on ?


Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

turbobloke

103,953 posts

260 months

Tuesday 23rd August 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
28 green bottles, hanging on the EU wall.
Soon there will be 27.
A few more EZ bottles are swinging in the wind.

maffski

1,868 posts

159 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
Portugal announce an agreement in principle to recapitalise state-owned bank Caixa Geral de Depositos according to Reuters

Apparently the EU have agreed this isn't state aid as it is 'on market terms'.

2.7bn Euros from the state, plus shares and bonds so they can say '2.7bn' and mean '5.1bn'.



Digga

40,317 posts

283 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
Wedge; thin end of. All those clucking about GBP/EUR will soon have a different issue to cluck about. So how about the Italian banks then?

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
What if Germany left?
Leaving the € to devalue which might then ease and cure part of the problem. I'm sure Germany might well join a £ zone 2 very similar sized economies and leave the rest who have been piggy backing / ripping off the wealthier countries for its success.


Surely Germany no longer needs to appologise and feel needed to do so financially for the Wars?

Art0ir

9,401 posts

170 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
What if Germany left?
Leaving the € to devalue which might then ease and cure part of the problem. I'm sure Germany might well join a £ zone 2 very similar sized economies and leave the rest who have been piggy backing / ripping off the wealthier countries for its success.


Surely Germany no longer needs to appologise and feel needed to do so financially for the Wars?
Germany is a precarious position. They are essentially backrolling the Med to keep their exports alive with a weak Euro.

Can you imagine how much a Deutschmark would be worth compared to the Euro? 2:1? 3:1?

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
Germany is a precarious position. They are essentially backrolling the Med to keep their exports alive with a weak Euro.

Can you imagine how much a Deutschmark would be worth compared to the Euro? 2:1? 3:1?

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.
Debt is still debt and needs to be repaid. It's cumulative borrowing which mean generation of our children have to pay for our over excess (labour seem more than happy and think that is "fair" maybe a new kind of politics but it's ripping off your kids so you can have a sweeter setup.

Art0ir

9,401 posts

170 months

Wednesday 24th August 2016
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Art0ir said:
Germany is a precarious position. They are essentially backrolling the Med to keep their exports alive with a weak Euro.

Can you imagine how much a Deutschmark would be worth compared to the Euro? 2:1? 3:1?

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.
Debt is still debt and needs to be repaid. It's cumulative borrowing which mean generation of our children have to pay for our over excess (labour seem more than happy and think that is "fair" maybe a new kind of politics but it's ripping off your kids so you can have a sweeter setup.
Of course, but this odd mantra that "any debt = bad" is just nonsense. Germany has parts of its infrastructure crumbling that have largely been ignored in recent years. There is borrowing for sensible things like bridge building and borrowing for the kind of things you talk about.

The US has a similar problem. I think I read there are over 100 bridges in NY alone that are rated at "critical" in terms of structural stability.