Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
tumble dryer said:
jsf said:
egomeister said:
"the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" you might say...
The Hamptons is not a defensible position, eventually they will come for you.Its a great line.
It's just another take on pretty much every serious economic theory. For every rich man there needs to be 500 poor and you have to pay the state to police the poor in order to sleep safely. It's the foundation of asset wealth protection, dont skimp on the payments or you will be killed.
stongle said:
No one, absolutely no one looking at this equates a few points of FX volatility in GBP as an equivalence to the Eurozones issues IF Italy goes into a bailout and freezes itself OUTSIDE capital markets. That is EXACTLY what will happen IF they don't stick to their commitments made (the nutters want to renegotiate on); and the macro environment doesn't deteriorate further.
I'm agreeing with you. But that's a mighty big "IF" - not Italy needing a bailout, but Italy freezing itself outside of capital markets.And be honest - I didn't mention "a few points of FX volatility", now did I? I linked to a reputable report of enough hedging, at enough volumes, that was newsworthy. Nor did I equate it to the doomsday scenario of Italy failing to secure debt funding.
Sure, Italy is leaning towards electing more nutters, but it's the same old argument they threaten "don't push me or I'll jump"
And I mentioned gilts as they're inflation linked.
M.
Mortarboard said:
And I mentioned gilts as they're inflation linked.
M.
You are digging a hole. The UK can service the index linked payments - even if getting painful.... it's not going to default. So YOU are better off with them....M.
And the article you referenced was throwaway fluff. It had a 3mth window (which is when Europe might be having serious issues), and no one knows if Bailey is done hiking as the Tory govt may have very much damaged our economy over the last 6-8 years.....
Even then, we still don't have a kinderegg currency.
stongle said:
You are digging a hole. The UK can service the index linked payments - even if getting painful.... it's not going to default. So YOU are better off with them....
And the article you referenced was throwaway fluff. It had a 3mth window (which is when Europe might be having serious issues), and no one knows if Bailey is done hiking as the Tory govt may have very much damaged our economy over the last 6-8 years.....
Even then, we still don't have a kinderegg currency.
Choking hazard hidden inside?And the article you referenced was throwaway fluff. It had a 3mth window (which is when Europe might be having serious issues), and no one knows if Bailey is done hiking as the Tory govt may have very much damaged our economy over the last 6-8 years.....
Even then, we still don't have a kinderegg currency.
stongle said:
You are digging a hole. The UK can service the index linked payments - even if getting painful.... it's not going to default. So YOU are better off with them....
For now, but are we going to be able to reduce the debt/GDP before a cost of living crisis means turning the money printer back on?RichTT said:
For now, but are we going to be able to reduce the debt/GDP before a cost of living crisis means turning the money printer back on?
Well this being the Euro thread, UK politics is somewhat secondary. This is also an issue for the ECB, they have put nearly 2.2 trn into the market, and it is not easy to see how and when they can start to get growth to a point where reducing the money supply can be a good thing. Supply side inflation has not historically reacted well to monetary measures. Arguably it can work, if the general population can be persuaded to take the medicine.
Murph7355 said:
tobinen said:
Apologies if this is a pea-roast but I found this interesting and Blyth presents in a way I can understand
I don't always agree with his conclusions, but the way he presents is compelling. He works in the heart of the MMT vipers nest, but has not swallowed that book whole.
He sensibly steers clear of ‘predicting’ exact outcomes, but paints in enough of a background for us to consider options.
The vultures are circling Italy, going to be interesting to see if the ECB can maintain credibility. Doubly difficult with the German economy stumbling into recession, will probably make them even less inclined to bankroll Med country debt.
https://ukwithny.com/hedge-funds-build-biggest-bet...
https://ukwithny.com/hedge-funds-build-biggest-bet...
Digga said:
His perspectives are interesting. He uses minimal jargon. Anyone could pause his video and look up the odd phrase they don’t understand and jump straight back in.
He works in the heart of the MMT vipers nest, but has not swallowed that book whole.
He sensibly steers clear of ‘predicting’ exact outcomes, but paints in enough of a background for us to consider options.
"Run the printing press. That's what the Brits did. And then they still did austerity, because they're morons."He works in the heart of the MMT vipers nest, but has not swallowed that book whole.
He sensibly steers clear of ‘predicting’ exact outcomes, but paints in enough of a background for us to consider options.
Yup, I agree with him so far
speedy_thrills said:
Italian 10Y over 4% again however the gap to the German 10Y has been maintained as yields on that also got dragged up as well thanks to the ECBs new tool. There's no such thing as a free lunch after all.
Given that the ECB sold the 0.75% hike as unanimous; some mega back scratching went on. IIRC neither Germany nor Italy got to vote in the last meeting, so there might have been 1 desenter otherwise. It's all about "front loading". Evidently. And whilst I have a grudgingly charitable respect for the tangerine supremo there, her memory is sketchy as f
k. When pushed on tiering or what rate governments and banks will get when depoting cash (she said she couldn't recall), that can got kicked.That's stacking up a trillion euro liquidity squeeze at year end.
Depot rates on term accounts have gone nuts. They are not done yet.
The "new tool" is a joke waiting to happen. As specified it's currently useless, everyone knows its going to get gamed.
Whilst I do rather like her, when she speaks all bets are off. TPI is a comedy, and she went off the month by month script by calling an end to the hiking cycle. Although they are all making it up as they go along, so bless her cotton socks.
Sept 25th - Election time in Italy and Meloni is currently leading with her nutters on 25%. Strangely enough the markets are edging upwards in pricing Italian “risk” as that date approaches.
The European “plan” is bunging Italy a st load of cash now to basically lock her in to playing nice in order to keep the cash and Italy afloat. So far she is nodding along saying of course she will play nice.
Because we haven’t heard that one before in Europe…
Urgh, everything about this woman makes me itch
I’m personally putting my hope on the League, who *do* control the industrial financial levers in Italy, to reign her in and preferably stitch her up. It’s probably a slim hope
I genuinely genuinely worry that my beloved Italy is at risk of burning with this lunatic in charge. Far far more than I ever worry about MLP next door who is an ideological hooker for any vote going.
The European “plan” is bunging Italy a s
t load of cash now to basically lock her in to playing nice in order to keep the cash and Italy afloat. So far she is nodding along saying of course she will play nice.Because we haven’t heard that one before in Europe…
Urgh, everything about this woman makes me itch
I’m personally putting my hope on the League, who *do* control the industrial financial levers in Italy, to reign her in and preferably stitch her up. It’s probably a slim hope
I genuinely genuinely worry that my beloved Italy is at risk of burning with this lunatic in charge. Far far more than I ever worry about MLP next door who is an ideological hooker for any vote going.
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