Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Steffan said:
Years ago an old very wealthy, very sharp and very amusing Jewish Accountant,who taught me a very great deal, with all the humour that nation posseses in extremis, suggested to me as a lowly articled clerk that getting on a fast train in business was the best way forward. Never stay on slow trains moving quickly then becomes much harder to acieve. He meant put yourself in the best place for growth and it will come a lot easier. That is what I did and that is what I recommend to other's.
I haven't read this thread in ages but had a quick catch up on it this morning. Over the past couple of days I have been considering my own situation and current industry of choice. It is both mega competitive and probably not growing. Balls!Digga said:
ou're correct, debt and deficit is common, even more so post crunch, but in my eyes the value of the EUR does not seem right and there has yet to be a full, post-crunch correction for either the EUR or many of its constituent nations. For example, from what I hear, France is only now beginning to decline by any visible measure. I think there is further for the currency any nations to fall and little sign that any sensible measures for recovery are even being considered, let alone implemented.
Steffan, enjoy la dolce vita!
Given Staffan's new comparatively abstemious lifestyle I would suggest he'll be enjoying la dulce ryvita Steffan, enjoy la dolce vita!
Have you noticed how Draghi is now doing his absolute best to talk down the value of the Euro and to convince us there is no prospect of disinflation/deflation in the EZ. He would like all this to happen without any actual cost, much like his "whatever it takes" put. He's a very clever man, but I'm not sure it's working long term. Extend and pretend will always catch you up.
Sadly, austerity's only just starting in France. Hollande is obliged by the EU to cut Eu50BN over the next five years and frankly he hasn't got the faintest clue where to start with this. My view is that he will go back to the EU and beg for a further extension, and frankly this time I have my doubts the Germans will give him any more slack. What these cuts will do to a moribund economy is anyone's guess.
The further recent problems emerging in Greece, Portugal and now Bulgaria give the lie to the argument that the Euro Crisis is over. We are a single external shock away from it blowing up again. This time, compared to 2011/12, the players are much weaker and there's less capital and goodwill to rely upon.
In Steffan's first thread, my initial prediction for the demise of the Euro (Mk2 or whatever) was 2014. I might just sneak in under the bar, but I now I think it's more likely to die in 2015. It's safe to say the noose is tightening, that bond yields can go both ways and that voters can get fed up wit their lot. Some may say the Euro's not going anywhere soon. Maybe not, but I suggest some of the members of the EZ just might...
Steffan said:
On a personal note as it happens we are moving to Italy and Lucca as our main base from October ...
You lucky man!We enjoyed a holiday in Lucca a few years back - lovely town, great location. Whilst standing by the pool admiring the villa I pointed out to my sons just how much of the 'stuff' was manufactured apparently in Italy (manhole covers, rain water goods, pool fittings, etc etc) and to contrast with what you can buy or see in the UK. Same again in France. Not that it proves anything per se, but it's always interesting to look around and get a feel for what's going on.
One thing we could not reconcile - the lack of young Italians. Where we expect to see families with molto bambino we saw, usually, only one child out with mum & dad. My wife pointed this out after trying to buy meat in the supermarket in a big enough packet for a family of four. They generally cater for families of three it seemed to us.
As to property - if you tied up your equity in Italian real estate you'd never afford the UK again, would you?
DJRC said:
The third question is answered very easily in Switzerland and Bavaria. Zurich, St Gallen, Neufchâtel and Geneve are hoovering up any and every French Italian Spanish and Portuguese technical and financial professional and grad they can get. Munich has massive ex pat populations of Brits Spanish and Italians...and everybody else. Some people might argue this was scary.
You should see the latest figures for Italians coming to live London. Quite extraordinary. All that lovely tax and NI to Georgie boy; none to poor old Matteo Renzi. It must be heart-breaking to spend all that money on some of the finest education establishments in Europe and then see the best and brightest clearing off to pastures green. It's also throwing a serious spanner in the Italian figures, and with debt:GDP currently at 138% it's hard to see where they go without defaulting. (see article I posted yesterday for further info).Andrew[MG] said:
Steffan said:
Years ago an old very wealthy, very sharp and very amusing Jewish Accountant,who taught me a very great deal, with all the humour that nation posseses in extremis, suggested to me as a lowly articled clerk that getting on a fast train in business was the best way forward. Never stay on slow trains moving quickly then becomes much harder to acieve. He meant put yourself in the best place for growth and it will come a lot easier. That is what I did and that is what I recommend to other's.
I haven't read this thread in ages but had a quick catch up on it this morning. Over the past couple of days I have been considering my own situation and current industry of choice. It is both mega competitive and probably not growing. Balls!Perhaps the most important decisions in business are: Where do I fit in and perform well? What suits me personally in a job? How can I maximise my opportunities to keep my career and income progressing? I do think that annually reviewing your personal business achievements, realistic prospects and where the next move should be is a better approach than remaining where you are particularly if the sector is stagnating.
Not an easy decision but better than remaining where you know your future may be restricted and growth limited. We pass this way but once IMO. Up to every individual to maximise their opportunities. Or not if that is their decision. But remaining where you know you may be restricted, does seem somewhat uncommercial to me. Like many things in life such decisions are not easily made. Deliberately reviewing the situation yearly has helped me change direction as I saw the game changing. One of the few benefits of a very expensive Time Manager course years ago in the USA.
Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 12th August 18:47
Andy Zarse said:
Digga said:
ou're correct, debt and deficit is common, even more so post crunch, but in my eyes the value of the EUR does not seem right and there has yet to be a full, post-crunch correction for either the EUR or many of its constituent nations. For example, from what I hear, France is only now beginning to decline by any visible measure. I think there is further for the currency any nations to fall and little sign that any sensible measures for recovery are even being considered, let alone implemented.
Steffan, enjoy la dolce vita!
Given Staffan's new comparatively abstemious lifestyle I would suggest he'll be enjoying la dulce ryvita Steffan, enjoy la dolce vita!
Have you noticed how Draghi is now doing his absolute best to talk down the value of the Euro and to convince us there is no prospect of disinflation/deflation in the EZ. He would like all this to happen without any actual cost, much like his "whatever it takes" put. He's a very clever man, but I'm not sure it's working long term. Extend and pretend will always catch you up.
Sadly, austerity's only just starting in France. Hollande is obliged by the EU to cut Eu50BN over the next five years and frankly he hasn't got the faintest clue where to start with this. My view is that he will go back to the EU and beg for a further extension, and frankly this time I have my doubts the Germans will give him any more slack. What these cuts will do to a moribund economy is anyone's guess.
The further recent problems emerging in Greece, Portugal and now Bulgaria give the lie to the argument that the Euro Crisis is over. We are a single external shock away from it blowing up again. This time, compared to 2011/12, the players are much weaker and there's less capital and goodwill to rely upon.
In Steffan's first thread, my initial prediction for the demise of the Euro (Mk2 or whatever) was 2014. I might just sneak in under the bar, but I now I think it's more likely to die in 2015. It's safe to say the noose is tightening, that bond yields can go both ways and that voters can get fed up wit their lot. Some may say the Euro's not going anywhere soon. Maybe not, but I suggest some of the members of the EZ just might...
I am very happy that this combination keeps me functioning reasonably well currently. Without the surgery and drugs I would have been long gone. Got another operation coming up shortly. However currently there is a bit of a problem. Whilst the surgeons are happy to proceed no anaesthetist can be found who will take the risk. Which is a bit of a challenge.
I do appreciate the humour of Andy Zarse suggesting dulce ryvita could be a better description! LOL
The comments of A Z on Draghi and his attempts to stem the tide against the EU, and the likely consequences to Hollonde and France of the reality check that is coming, are absolutely correct. No one who has been reading this thread could not be aware that France's Goose (and Gander) are already well and truly cooked. Reality time is coming and reality checks will apply to all the failing states steadily as this nonsense proceeds.
Once reality checks start to be applied to Greece(insolvent), Portugal(insolvent), Italy(insolvent). Ireland(insolvent), Spain(insolvent, Malta(insolvent), Cyprus(insolvent) and so on there can be only one conclusion. Since the monetary union over all the EU required to be able to redress the insolvency of these states, has not as yet, been agreed and Germany is not prepared to pick up the tabs, and neither are the rest of the Northern EU states, the EU cannot actually solve this problem at all as things are. And I for one do not think they will.
The EU are hoping that, by printing Euro's to flood the insolvent EU States already totally overloaded with completely unaffordable and unrepayable debt, they can sustain these difficulties now emanating within the failing states.
As The Don of Cry said earlier in Italy, there are clear signs that Italian family sizes and Italian families and Italian bonhomie and love for life are being seriously affected by the continuing collapse and fall of the Italian economy. That is equally true in every one failing states trapped within this nonsense. The EU are praying that this outright dishonesty can sustain their position long enough to hide the facts with the supra EU taxation and the much higher fiscal amendments the EU will try to force throughout the EU members. I do not think that will actually be achieved and therefore fallout is coming.
Overall I remain convinced that the whole nonsense will be seen for what it is as the cracks of more and more the failing states cause problems within the states and become more and more apparent. I do not see this nonsense as being sustainable nor should it be continued. No country can sustain an economically unaffordable currency.
Steffan said:
...Overall I remain convinced that the whole nonsense will be seen for what it is as the cracks of more and more the failing states cause problems within the states and become more and more apparent. I do not see this nonsense as being sustainable nor should it be continued. No country can sustain an economically unaffordable currency.
In volume 1, I expected they would fudge and fudge again. Volume 3, they are still at it. Volume 5, they will not have given up of their own volition. They are holding their breath and holding it together for good reason. One or a few need to breathe out.Glad to hear you are behaving & not fighting the medics/drugs
Mermaid said:
Steffan said:
...Overall I remain convinced that the whole nonsense will be seen for what it is as the cracks of more and more the failing states cause problems within the states and become more and more apparent. I do not see this nonsense as being sustainable nor should it be continued. No country can sustain an economically unaffordable currency.
In volume 1, I expected they would fudge and fudge again. Volume 3, they are still at it. Volume 5, they will not have given up of their own volition. They are holding their breath and holding it together for good reason. One or a few need to breathe out.Glad to hear you are behaving & not fighting the medics/drugs
In fact I am now significantly lighter at 15 stone 4 lbs than I was on my 17th birthday when I was 17 stone 4 lbs, some 51 years ago. And considerably below my peak of 25 stone plus. That was complete madness. Of which there has been much in my life. But by God I did enjoy getting there. Getting back has been a bit of a challenge.
And will continue hopefully.DJRC said:
When do you hit Lucca Steffan? I'll bring the new 55 over and see if we can't try and kill you properly
1st October or thereabouts. Out till May and possibly longer but certainly May.We should meet up, where abouts are you in Italy this year?
It would be privilege to see the 55 but I warn you I take some killing. I look forward to seeing you over there!
DJRC said:
Abruzzo! Earthquake Central near L'Aquila. A cpl of hours drive to Lucca would be sorted.
Excellent. I am aware that Abruzzo is reasonably local and is I understand that the city is highly regarded in Italy. It will indeed be good to meet up and I will look forward to it. My mobile number is still the same and we will have sorted ourselves out, or rather SWMBO will have, within a few days so anytime thereafter should be fine.
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