Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

Unfortunately our political class and big business cartels have hamstrung us via its concentration on - and obsession with - Europe. In my opinion the EU is an insular, backward-looking solution to a problem which ceased to exist in about 1990.

This is not especially an anti-European point as many EU countries have long been our friends and I hope that they remain so. However, it is a strong indicator that we have been ignoring the rest of the world, much to our cost. The EU prevents the UK from signing Free Trade agreements with other countries; I am certain that if we had, we would now be far far better off as a nation.

I think the point regarding big business is significant. Both main parties are effectively 'owned'.

Mermaid said:

Nice Euro bounce against GBP last few fortnight - almost 3%, reversing the fall in the prior fortnight. Volatile markets.

My last exposure to the nonsense was back in 2009. Never again.

[RDMcG]

Markets are dropping fast, new deflation worries, little growth on the horizon. I think we may be heading into some very dark times. Euro exposed.

[mondeoman]

Hang on, I thought the recovery was just around the corner, interestrates were going to go up, everything in the garden was rosy. What went wrong?

[Mermaid]

mondeoman said:

Hang on, I thought the recovery was just around the corner, interestrates were going to go up, everything in the garden was rosy. What went wrong?

US Ten year note below 2% earlier on today, US Bund about 0.75% - Greece ten times as much - arbitrage

[RDMcG]

Mermaid said:

US Ten year note below 2% earlier on today, US Bund about 0.75% - Greece ten times as much - arbitrage

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/world-economy-gives-investors-growth-scare-as-eyes-focus-on-u-s-.html

[Andy Zarse]

RDMcG said:

Mermaid said:

US Ten year note below 2% earlier on today, US Bund about 0.75% - Greece ten times as much - arbitrage

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/world-economy-gives-investors-growth-scare-as-eyes-focus-on-u-s-.html

So much for The Vapours TurningJapanese. The 5 year bond yield in Germany (0.11%) falls below that in Japan (0.14%)

Remind me again who's been doing the trillion Y QE?

Oh and MNI reports that Greece PM Samaras has called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Wednesday evening amid market worries for Greece's future...

Edited by Andy Zarse on Wednesday 15th October 21:59

[Mermaid]

Andy Zarse said:

Oh and MNI reports that Greece PM Samaras has called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Wednesday evening amid market worries for Greece's future...

I suspect many emergency cabinet meetings around the world, highly volatile markets.

[jonah35]

Deflation coming? Lower interest rates? Falling market? Lower savings rates?

House prices prob stay similar?

[RDMcG]

Deflation is the nightmare scenario. Difficult to manage when it takes hold. Everyone holds onto cash, spending goes down, more price cuts,and a downward economic spiral.

[Gargamel]

RDMcG said:

Deflation is the nightmare scenario. Difficult to manage when it takes hold. Everyone holds onto cash, spending goes down, more price cuts,and a downward economic spiral.

Deflation if you have big debts and negative growth is going to be extremly tricky to manage.

[RDMcG]

Gargamel said:

Deflation if you have big debts and negative growth is going to be extremly tricky to manage.

Yep..your debts keep growing in value. People unlikely to buy houses as the real value of debt increases relative to the asset.. Same issue with countries...declining tax revenues to service the debt. We are getting a tad too close to that for comfort.

[Mermaid]

coyft said:

Funny old world when price increases are preferred to decreases. I wouldn't worry though, central banks are never going to let that happen. We're now QE and ZIRP junkies, we'll get our fix,

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/10/16/what-happ...

[Digga]

Mermaid said:

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

Which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

[Mermaid]

Digga said:

which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

do wonder if Sugar Mummy Yellen will fill the punch bowl again - to prevent further stock market losses (stock gains are the right of every US citizen!!)

[Andy Zarse]

Digga said:

Mermaid said:

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

Which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

They're the same except the EUR ones came half price from the reject shop. They have a hole in the middle...

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

Mermaid said:

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

Which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

They're the same except the EUR ones came half price from the reject shop. They have a hole in the middle...

I guess they could leave them blank and let the users fill in the denomination at will. After all, they're only IOUs, right?

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

Mermaid said:

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

Which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

They're the same except the EUR ones came half price from the reject shop. They have a hole in the middle...

I guess they could leave them blank and let the users fill in the denomination at will. After all, they're only IOUs, right?

"I promise to pay the bearer of this note at least twenty cents on the euro"

[DJRC]

Germany can't keep paying for everyone for ever. And won't. It's quite simple. Sooner or later her domestic electorate will force action and that will be interesting.

[RDMcG]

Another ugly day.. Dow off .71%, S&P 500 off 1.2%,FTSE off 1.5%, oil flirting with $80…still no bottom in sight.

[Andy Zarse]

turbobloke said:

Digga said:

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

Mermaid said:

Germany not so healthy - will need to get those Heidelberg machines running.

Which set of plates to use, EUR or DM?

They're the same except the EUR ones came half price from the reject shop. They have a hole in the middle...

I guess they could leave them blank and let the users fill in the denomination at will. After all, they're only IOUs, right?

"I promise to pay the bearer of this note at least twenty cents on the euro"

<phonejacker>Ahhhh good day my friend. My name is George Agdgdgwngo-opolopolis of the ahhh European Central Bankings in ahhh Athens. We have ahhh discovered a pidgeon in the bank vaults and he has eaten your monies..."</phonejacker>