Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
LongQ said:
But it is more likely to be some specific event that could cause the largest damage to the project as a whole and Euro as part of that.

IMO.
An Election ?

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
Walford said:
LongQ said:
But it is more likely to be some specific event that could cause the largest damage to the project as a whole and Euro as part of that.

IMO.
An Election ?
Particularly if it's in the EZ and the wrong answer emerges so the result is ignored and the election is re-run, with voters getting a tad annoyed.

Then again there's May 2015 which won't be quite like that but could be Steve Davis Interesting.

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
Marie Le Pen is the one to watch in my opinion.

The French have previous for le revolution, and I think their anarchic streak could really come to the fore if it is perceived that Germany are blocking French policy.


Mermaid

21,492 posts

170 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Marie Le Pen is the one to watch in my opinion.

The French have previous for le revolution, and I think their anarchic streak could really come to the fore if it is perceived that Germany are blocking French policy.
& others from Greece & Italy.

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
Mermaid said:
Gargamel said:
Marie Le Pen is the one to watch in my opinion.

The French have previous for le revolution, and I think their anarchic streak could really come to the fore if it is perceived that Germany are blocking French policy.
& others from Greece & Italy.
Next elections in France are in 2017.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_e...

May well be worth a watch.

Art0ir

9,401 posts

169 months

Wednesday 22nd October 2014
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
Next elections in France are in 2017.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_e...

May well be worth a watch.
Assuming he makes it to 2017.

Driller

8,310 posts

277 months

Thursday 23rd October 2014
quotequote all
I think you mean Marine Le Pen. "Jean-Marie" is ger father who was leader of the party before she took over.

Anyway, Alain Juppé from the UMP will win it. People have no more faith in the socialists and still don't like Sarko's perceived aggressiveness.

Next to Sarko, Juppé has a gentle father-figure style which is what these capricious children are looking for in a president.

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Thursday 23rd October 2014
quotequote all
Driller said:
I think you mean Marine Le Pen. "Jean-Marie" is ger father who was leader of the party before she took over.

Anyway, Alain Juppé from the UMP will win it. People have no more faith in the socialists and still don't like Sarko's perceived aggressiveness.

Next to Sarko, Juppé has a gentle father-figure style which is what these capricious children are looking for in a president.
Yeah my bad, wasn't sure of the spelling, Marine always makes her sound like she used to be in Stingray..... Good that dates me.

Would be a disaster for the EU if she gets into power. But funny to watch from a safe distance.

YankeePorker

4,763 posts

240 months

Thursday 23rd October 2014
quotequote all
We'll The Economist is certainly on message this week. "No it isn't, it's only resting..."

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21627620-def...

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Thursday 23rd October 2014
quotequote all
YankeePorker said:
We'll The Economist is certainly on message this week. "No it isn't, it's only resting..."

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21627620-def...
Interesting article from the Economist. Reading through it the refusal of the EU and the individual states within the EU to admit reality and face the economic facts has created precisely the situation within the EU that should have been collectively avoided. Question now is can the EU and Draghi with his restricted options and the pressure from the biggest state, Germany, not to take further inflationery action unless and until structural reforms are accepted by France, Greece and all the other failing states, which is not going to happen, the EU are collectively facing a problem that they cannot actually address effectively. This has been coming foursome time and will be no surprise to readers of this blog.

It may be the Draghi and co can spin this a little longer. But the essential structural reforms required to the failing states within the EU are simply not going to happen because the individual states will not agree to them led by France who appears to be determined to cause financial suicide. Hollande will not accept any such reforms. Trouble is that their suicide will drag down others in the EU.

As this article reminds us the spectre of a deflationary collapse is right upon the EU. And the EU has no means of addressing the fundamental weaknesses of the failing states. The crunch is coming and Draghi knows the problem and has no means of addressing the underlying causes. Printing more money cannot mask this problem. The consequences of years of failure and refusal to admit reality are coming upon the EU. Good time for careful assessement of how the UK can protect itself from the worst of the consequences of the crunch now steadily moving onto the EU. I do hope we can protect ourselves in this matter but major economic problems such as these must make business more difficult for everyone.

YankeePorker

4,763 posts

240 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
When I read that article and they talk about potentially allowing negative interest rates if that is the cost of avoiding deflation, I try to imagine how that works. If a bank tells you that it will cost you money for them to hold onto your bank balance, surely the reaction is to say "Sod you, give it to me in cash then!"? Cue rocketing sales of safes and people sleeping on lumpy mattresses. And they would print to supply the hoarders, devaluing in the process, thereby encouraging the hoarders to spend it before it loses it's value. But the hoarders won't spend as prices will be falling, and they will be waiting for even better deals (human nature). Deflationary spiral.

Much though I like The Economist, I still have an issue with their proposed solutions to the current situation. OK, I accept that a country or currency zone can't be run like a household, but when you already have too much debt the idea of taking on more debt and going on a spending spree as a solution just doesn't cut it. Maybe short term it would stimulate Eurozone economies, but then you're left with some smashing completed infrastructure projects and even more debt.

There are many barbs aimed at the Germans for their austerity approach, but that still seems the most coherent to me. Reduce the outgoings, aim to live within your means and then grow from there. This is where the French have it wrong IMO, they blame austerity for killing off their industrial base, whereas the reality is that it's the high cost of the French government that is doing that through high taxes and social security charges. Overly protective employment law isn't helping either, but that's a given in a country with a socialist soul.

I still think that there is a lot of can kicking to go as it really isn't in anyone's interests for the € to fail, apart from astute speculators and money printing companies like De la Rue. May you live in interesting times.....

gruffalo

7,509 posts

225 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
It seems that the EU has now said that the UK needs to pay an extra £1.7Bn into the EU budget as our economy is doing better than most.


Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
gruffalo said:
It seems that the EU has now said that the UK needs to pay an extra £1.7Bn into the EU budget as our economy is doing better than most.
Pure Communism.

Uncle John

4,269 posts

190 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
We pay 1.7bn for essentially getting our house in order while the French get a 1bn rebate for being a basket case.....

The Germans are also due a rebate and let me guess, erm yup, this will be 0.7bn!!!

So effectively we will be paying for France and Germany's rebate......

Pure communism, we should refuse to pay and get out of ths fiasco as soon as possible.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
YankeePorker said:
When I read that article and they talk about potentially allowing negative interest rates if that is the cost of avoiding deflation...
Potentially? The ECB already has a -0.20% deposit rate. The idea of neg rates is that banks will lend to the broader economy rather than pay to hold cash at the ECB. It's not really working, as peripheral Eurozone business lending falls quarter after quarter after quarter... also look at bond yields; how negative does your sentiment have to be about other asset classes to hold Spanish debt for 10 years at a yield of about 2.50%pa?

The supposed end product of boosting small and medium-sized businesses always seems to morph into yet another subsidy for the banking-sector. One day there will have to be a valuation of the paper,bonds and markets they have got involved with and I expect there to be “surprise” shortfalls.

Meanwhile the ECB balance sheet has shrunk from EU3BN a couple of years ago and now stands at EU2BN and rumours spread that at least 11 Eurozone banks have failed the latest (piece of piss) stress tests.

They really are making a most frightful hack of things IMO.

YankeePorker

4,763 posts

240 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
gruffalo said:
It seems that the EU has now said that the UK needs to pay an extra £1.7Bn into the EU budget as our economy is doing better than most.
Hmmm, this will cause a nice row! Their timing is impeccable, what with the French refusal to reform to reduce their budget deficit and the rising threat of UKIP to the British political system!

Call me a cynical old , but this smacks of pure gamesmanship. A deliberate tactic to shaft Cameron by increasing the internal Tory divisions, helping pro-EU, non-referendum Labour to better position themselves for the next election?

hidetheelephants

23,756 posts

192 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
YankeePorker said:
gruffalo said:
It seems that the EU has now said that the UK needs to pay an extra £1.7Bn into the EU budget as our economy is doing better than most.
Hmmm, this will cause a nice row! Their timing is impeccable, what with the French refusal to reform to reduce their budget deficit and the rising threat of UKIP to the British political system!

Call me a cynical old , but this smacks of pure gamesmanship. A deliberate tactic to shaft Cameron by increasing the internal Tory divisions, helping pro-EU, non-referendum Labour to better position themselves for the next election?
I don't see it as helping Labour one bit; they are seen as more pro-EU, so in order to not look like craven lackeys they have to agree with pretty much everything CMD has said. Soft-pedalling on the EU was a (white working class)vote loser even before this turd was flung over the fence by Brussels.

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
I don't see it as helping Labour one bit...
Further splitting the Torys and strengthening UKIP will likely get the EU the only UK government that will not hold a referendum, Labour. The EU can't risk a Tory win and referendum next year with anti EU parties gaining strength everywhere else. Further more, giving money back to France will strengthen the mainstream pro EU parties against FN.

Enricogto

646 posts

144 months

Friday 24th October 2014
quotequote all
YankeePorker said:
There are many barbs aimed at the Germans for their austerity approach, but that still seems the most coherent to me. Reduce the outgoings, aim to live within your means and then grow from there. This is where the French have it wrong IMO, they blame austerity for killing off their industrial base, whereas the reality is that it's the high cost of the French government that is doing that through high taxes and social security charges. Overly protective employment law isn't helping either, but that's a given in a country with a socialist soul.
This statement, that is not new, it's in itself quite interesting.
Interesting because no one can negate that in some cases the governments could do better in managing the vast resources they have available and that in most cases are dispersed in thousands of small streams that are beneficial in electoral terms but useless at boosting productivity.
What is really striking, though, is how Germany is perceived to have a better balance sheet when all it does with respect to other European countries is a case of balance sheet dressing.
Whilst for France or Italy the regional debt for Debt calculation purposes is consolidated in the national debt, Germany simply avoids this step leaving a big chunk of his debt into the Landers' balance sheet, de-facto embellishing the situation.

hidetheelephants

23,756 posts

192 months

Saturday 25th October 2014
quotequote all
fblm said:
hidetheelephants said:
I don't see it as helping Labour one bit...
Further splitting the Torys and strengthening UKIP will likely get the EU the only UK government that will not hold a referendum, Labour. The EU can't risk a Tory win and referendum next year with anti EU parties gaining strength everywhere else. Further more, giving money back to France will strengthen the mainstream pro EU parties against FN.
Aside from not believing CMD will actually have a referendum, how is this helping Labour? Part of the reason they are haemorraging votes is their forelock-tugging with respect to the EU and uncontrolled immigration, now Brussels want to tax the UK to help the rest of the EU out of a self-induced mess.