Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
DJRC said:
As I said 3 yrs ago Andy it is a race to the bottom 
True enough...BTW the Catalonia independence debate thingy. I've been following this story for some time via the twitter feed of Edward Hugh (@Edward_hugh for those who are interested). He's a widely respected British economist - dubbed by The New York Times as "the blog prophet of Euro zone doom". He's been living and working in Barcelona since 1990. He wrote in September:
"Which brings us to 9 November itself: if it is not possible to have a vote then Catalonia’s President Mas has suggested he might call plebiscitary elections. The purpose of these elections would not be – as some suggest – to authorize the parliament to declare UDI, but to establish the size of the majority in favour of a vote. The newly constituted parliament will then have the responsibility for deciding what to do next. It would be a mistake to think that these elections – if held – would be the end of the matter. They will take the collision onto a new level and generate a very high degree of uncertainty about where things are going from that point on.
So although the world will not change on November 10, and even if there are elections instead of a vote on independence the outcome could well produce a definitive sea change about how Catalans view their relations with Spain. They may well mark a “point of no return”. So to go back to where we started. Right now global markets and most of the international press are being pretty sanguine about the situation, when – as President Obama suggested in the case of the US government crisis – perhaps they shouldn’t be. Perhaps they should be worried about the complacency in Madrid, and remember that one of the principal ways of letting something unexpected happen is to assume it won’t."
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/the-catalan-vote-wh...
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest
All Steffan said about free movement was "I find the ease of working and travelling and the freedom of movement and financial freedom massively beneficial". Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted
Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest That's simply his personal view and experience and does nothing to justify it as a wide ranging benefit.
I'm not against it per se, but in its current guise it is doing massive harm with people migrating to the best place to be at any particular time to the detriment of those less well placed, and often to the detriment of those already living in the 'best' places. Given the significant cultural differences, it does more harm than good, in my experience.
General travelling is little different within the EU to travelling in any part of the 'free' world, again in my experience.
Enlighten us as to the benefits of this 'greatest liberation of ordinary civilians', not just how it's affected you personally.
REALIST123 said:
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest
All Steffan said about free movement was "I find the ease of working and travelling and the freedom of movement and financial freedom massively beneficial". Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted
Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest That's simply his personal view and experience and does nothing to justify it as a wide ranging benefit.
I'm not against it per se, but in its current guise it is doing massive harm with people migrating to the best place to be at any particular time to the detriment of those less well placed, and often to the detriment of those already living in the 'best' places. Given the significant cultural differences, it does more harm than good, in my experience.
General travelling is little different within the EU to travelling in any part of the 'free' world, again in my experience.
Enlighten us as to the benefits of this 'greatest liberation of ordinary civilians', not just how it's affected you personally.
As I travelled about Europe and looked in detail at the cost/benefit analysis beloved of all accountants I just realised that many of these states within the EU were visibly wilting within a currency totally dominated by Germany and that the whole scheme was highly suspect. Over the years I gradually began to appreciate that many of the failing states had in fact achieved membership by fraudulent means and that the EU coud only therefore continue as an organisation by fraudulent means. Which in my opinion is where we are with the shenanigans of Draghi and the abuse by the ECB of using QE to mask fundamental financial failures within the Euro.
Interestingly over the last three years the attitude and concern amongst the major states has become very visible and the in the background the political make up has been changing steadily. The UK has now got its first UKIP member of Parliament and will I suspect shortly have its second. From all the signs the attitude of UK politicians is changing and turning against the EU I think largely because the politicians have belatedly realised that there is a very significant under swell of dissatisfaction within the UK electorate in the failure of UK politicians to recognise that a great many of the UK electorate want change and specifically want subjects like unfettered immigration discussed openly and considered openly. It seems very probable that both the Labour party (if that is now their preferred term, change the name, the game remains the same being their mantra politically) and the Conservtaives and the Liberals- will lose support at the next election and it may well be that UKIP, at least initially, pick up seats in consequence. What happens thereafter must depend upon how those new electees actually aquit themselves in public but I do think change is coming. I consequences think the spotlight will be turned onto the ECB and this QE nonsense which will not stand examination. The EU still have not got oe set of accounts signed off by the auditors. Nor will they do so IMO because it has become a nonsense.
There is an interesting article at
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-minutes-leake...
Which is worth a read I think. Of course it could all prove to be explainable but I think the rope is tightening around the ability of the EU to fool all the people all the time that is essential to the current support effort. Lending money to visibly failing Sovereign states seems to me to be plain daft and unsustainable. The fundamental reality is that the likes of Greece cannot survive within a currency tied into the German powerhouse, which in itself as DJRC reminds us all is visibly showing signs of slowing down.
I do think the stage is niw set for change and I think change is bound to come now that the beginnings of the discontent in the UK, for example with the political status quo means that change is now inevitable. I do hope some way can be found for the changes to be controlled and not catastrophic to the states involved. The trouble with Ponzi schemes is that the bigger they are the bigger bang there tends to be when they fail. I cannot see how this one can go on and therefore I think change is coming. Been my view for some time and it seems to me the stage is being set for just such a crystallisation of concern within the EU. I cannot see how such change could be avoided. Where that will lead remains to be seen. Interesting times indeed.
Because it allows the freedom to live and work anywhere in the area with the utmost ease. With very little hassle and grief. It is completely liberating on an individual level. It allows those with the talents to be able to best use them, they aren't stuck somewhere but instead let's and encourages them to improve themselves. In terms of culture mix then all I can say is go and live in Europe and see it for yourself. To go to say Westpark in Munich and watch different groups of ppl of all nationalities picnic'ing with each other, the mass aerobic groups of different nationalities. The effect this has had on breaking down perceived stereotypes between nationalities has been awesome. You want a lasting peace in Europe? It will come about from the individuals mixing at society level and seeing their similarities. That is down to the free movement of ppl within Europe. And no it didn't happen before. Ive spent my entire life living and travelling round Europe and I know full well how different it was even 20 yes ago. It is night and day different. France, Italy, Spain, Germany. In the UK take London. Aus and Bok bar staff and that was it. European culture, voices? V v rarely. Now again take the parks and its a wonderful mix intra and inter groups .
What is really disappointing though is that you rather proved my point. You only cared about the bit which I said I liked and was the least important in tje context of thisnthread. You didn't give a damn about the last section and the most important part of the post. It is a constant of the domestic ukip support. Argue about the ppl not the money when this thread esp is about the money not the ppl.
What is really disappointing though is that you rather proved my point. You only cared about the bit which I said I liked and was the least important in tje context of thisnthread. You didn't give a damn about the last section and the most important part of the post. It is a constant of the domestic ukip support. Argue about the ppl not the money when this thread esp is about the money not the ppl.
DJRC
The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
Edited by AJS- on Sunday 2nd November 09:08
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
The ordinary Spanish mug worry is simply how dumb Madrid will be in response to all this, suffice to say they tend to hold Madrid in the same esteem we hold Westminster. The main difference being there is a genuine worry about some kind of civil war even if just financial because nobody even pretends Madrid would win against Catalonia
Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest
Incidentally, what do your colleagues make of Podemos? They're a new left-wing party, founded in January, now leading polls in Spain.The ordinary Spanish mug worry is simply how dumb Madrid will be in response to all this, suffice to say they tend to hold Madrid in the same esteem we hold Westminster. The main difference being there is a genuine worry about some kind of civil war even if just financial because nobody even pretends Madrid would win against Catalonia
Steffan...echo what you said about the free movement thing. To me it is one of the greatest liberation of ordinary civilians in Europe. I regard as a cryingn shame that the blind faith kippers in this country have no idea of what actually living and working in Europe is like and the benefits that have happened. Only then can they actually understand the damage the incompetency of EU financial mismanagement that is being inflicted
Farage is a lost voice to Europe social protest Other than that, what do you think the UK would miss out on by having a kind of Swiss-style relationship with the EU? (Assuming it included free movement without which I would be fooked on a business and personal level!)
Edited by Andy Zarse on Sunday 2nd November 10:48
Edited by Andy Zarse on Sunday 2nd November 10:54
AJS- said:
DJRC
The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
The brightest and best will always move around and if their talents are in demand then they will do so relatively unhindered. About 15 years ago I was working with some Romanian guys who my employer had contracted in and whilst not all of them spoke good English they were nonetheless at the top of their game and a real asset.The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
I had massive respect for them as working with them taught me a lot about the industry I had recently joined. Today Romanians are considered a bit of a joke and are a byword for shoddy workmanship and a disregard of basic health and safety.
I've always been a big fan of the concept of freedom of goods and labour and have benefited from it myself many times but I'm now losing confidence in it and I often wonder how those original Romanians I worked with are getting on now.
Edited by jurbie on Sunday 2nd November 10:54
EskimoArapaho said:
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
80%; can you supply a source?To be clear; this vote is to allow a referendum on independence. It is NOT an in/out vote in itself.
EskimoArapaho said:
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
80%; can you supply a source?AJS- said:
DJRC
The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
Im well aware of that. The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
Edited by AJS- on Sunday 2nd November 09:08
The last 20 yrs though has seen massive change in the working mix of Western Europe. You didn't get the mix of French, Italians, Brits, Spanish, Germans, Dutch working and living together in each others countries 20 yrs ago. You had Brit ex pat communities in Spain, France, Italy and you had a minimal working ex pat community spread around, usually based in O&G or finance. The majority though was the various defence industry ex pats located around the world, principally Al Yam. mob based out in Saudi - not counting the various Brit forces everywhere.
That's my point really. I suspect the same change has happened to a greater or lesser degree world over and owes more to communications and cheap travel than to the EU.
I do think that freedom of movement is a good thing on the whole and I certainly wouldn't want to see strict rules brought in either way to restrict this.
Two problems with it - it does mean disruption to settled communities which suddenly find themselves host to large migrant work forces and this has been badly managed.
Secondly, the fact that it only applies to EU countries, while we still control extra EU immigration skews things massively in favour of EU migrants and necessarily against those from outside the EU.
On a personal level with my wife coming from outside the EU the restrictions on income, "recourse to public funds" language and cultural understanding are not inconsiderable. Not wholly unreasonable either but certainly a barrier. And we have been married 3 years and have a child together so it's hardly a sham marriage.
Not wholly unreasonable, but if she came from an EU country with similar levels of income and development she could simply turn up and start work on Monday.
It's a huge disparity, and while half the country is frothing at the mouth about immigrants I can't imagine our situation will improve so long as 500 million people have the right to come to the UK unhindered.
I realise I'm in a small minority and it makes sense to have easier arrangements for those countries closest and most compatible, however I feel a better balance could be struck.
This arrangement probably worked better when the EU was 12-15 relatively high income countries. Niche professionals could move around freely, people in areas of high unemployment had more options available and pensioners could get a place in the sun, but people didn't feel swamped and the government didn't feel the need to lock the door so firmly against those outside the EU.
I believe (second hand) that Switzerland has a fairly efficient system where a work and residence visa can be obtained in a day provided you have a job offer and you're not obviously planning a life on benefits. I don't see why we couldn't implement a similar system without filling in the channel tunnel or barring all foreigners from entering.
I do think that freedom of movement is a good thing on the whole and I certainly wouldn't want to see strict rules brought in either way to restrict this.
Two problems with it - it does mean disruption to settled communities which suddenly find themselves host to large migrant work forces and this has been badly managed.
Secondly, the fact that it only applies to EU countries, while we still control extra EU immigration skews things massively in favour of EU migrants and necessarily against those from outside the EU.
On a personal level with my wife coming from outside the EU the restrictions on income, "recourse to public funds" language and cultural understanding are not inconsiderable. Not wholly unreasonable either but certainly a barrier. And we have been married 3 years and have a child together so it's hardly a sham marriage.
Not wholly unreasonable, but if she came from an EU country with similar levels of income and development she could simply turn up and start work on Monday.
It's a huge disparity, and while half the country is frothing at the mouth about immigrants I can't imagine our situation will improve so long as 500 million people have the right to come to the UK unhindered.
I realise I'm in a small minority and it makes sense to have easier arrangements for those countries closest and most compatible, however I feel a better balance could be struck.
This arrangement probably worked better when the EU was 12-15 relatively high income countries. Niche professionals could move around freely, people in areas of high unemployment had more options available and pensioners could get a place in the sun, but people didn't feel swamped and the government didn't feel the need to lock the door so firmly against those outside the EU.
I believe (second hand) that Switzerland has a fairly efficient system where a work and residence visa can be obtained in a day provided you have a job offer and you're not obviously planning a life on benefits. I don't see why we couldn't implement a similar system without filling in the channel tunnel or barring all foreigners from entering.
DJRC said:
AJS- said:
DJRC
The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
Im well aware of that. The European Community has had freedom of movement aince 1957 and the UK has been included since joining in 1973. The only change in the last 20 years has been the acession of new countries and the developments in communications that have happened independently of the EU.
My father worked in Munich in the eaely 60s, along with Germans, Italians, Turks and others. I've worked in Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, France and Thailand.
Work and residency visas are as easy as countries choose to make them and it doesn't require a bureaucracy like the EU to facilitate easy movement between the countries of Europe.
Edited by AJS- on Sunday 2nd November 09:08
The last 20 yrs though has seen massive change in the working mix of Western Europe. You didn't get the mix of French, Italians, Brits, Spanish, Germans, Dutch working and living together in each others countries 20 yrs ago. You had Brit ex pat communities in Spain, France, Italy and you had a minimal working ex pat community spread around, usually based in O&G or finance. The majority though was the various defence industry ex pats located around the world, principally Al Yam. mob based out in Saudi - not counting the various Brit forces everywhere.
Andy Zarse said:
76% was the last figure i saw.
To be clear; this vote is to allow a referendum on independence. It is NOT an in/out vote in itself.
nope ,it is not even that. it is a group of people basically running a poll using home made cardboard boxes instead of the ipsos-mori style polls we get in the uk.To be clear; this vote is to allow a referendum on independence. It is NOT an in/out vote in itself.
when i mentioned this to a spanish bloke i know on another forum, this was the reply i received.
It is far too much to explain here, but just a few points.
1 Catalunia does not belong to the Catalans.
2.It has never been a separate country.
3.The sovereignty of the country resides with all Spaniards .....article 2 of the constitution.....which also states that the nation is indivisible.
In other words Catalonia belongs to all of us not just the Catalans
Not even president Mariano Rajoy can order a referendum, nor Parliament.
The only way to have a legal referendum is to change the constitution, Maps refuses to even put forward a proposal.
They will never....not ever have independence, as that would need a 75% majority vote yes of the Parliament if not the entire population, which will never happen...
Why would we give away part of our own country.
These English language forums and blogs are a joke, if they had any idea they would be commenting in Spanish.
Most of the expats....or immigrants are clueless.
Cheers, back home Monday, just sorted my BBC money lol
the references to expat immigrants and bbc money at the end are due to discussions we have around the uk,eu and ukip
wc98 said:
nope ,it is not even that. it is a group of people basically running a poll using home made cardboard boxes instead of the ipsos-mori style polls we get in the uk.
when i mentioned this to a spanish bloke i know on another forum, this was the reply i received.
It is far too much to explain here, but just a few points.
1 Catalunia does not belong to the Catalans.
2.It has never been a separate country.
3.The sovereignty of the country resides with all Spaniards .....article 2 of the constitution.....which also states that the nation is indivisible.
In other words Catalonia belongs to all of us not just the Catalans
Not even president Mariano Rajoy can order a referendum, nor Parliament.
The only way to have a legal referendum is to change the constitution, Maps refuses to even put forward a proposal.
They will never....not ever have independence, as that would need a 75% majority vote yes of the Parliament if not the entire population, which will never happen...
Why would we give away part of our own country.
These English language forums and blogs are a joke, if they had any idea they would be commenting in Spanish.
Most of the expats....or immigrants are clueless.
Cheers, back home Monday, just sorted my BBC money lol
the references to expat immigrants and bbc money at the end are due to discussions we have around the uk,eu and ukip
If enough people feel strongly enough about something they may not let a little thing like a constitution get in the way. I think you are being a little naive. Countries have split in recent history, the UK came close, don't think it couldn't happen.when i mentioned this to a spanish bloke i know on another forum, this was the reply i received.
It is far too much to explain here, but just a few points.
1 Catalunia does not belong to the Catalans.
2.It has never been a separate country.
3.The sovereignty of the country resides with all Spaniards .....article 2 of the constitution.....which also states that the nation is indivisible.
In other words Catalonia belongs to all of us not just the Catalans
Not even president Mariano Rajoy can order a referendum, nor Parliament.
The only way to have a legal referendum is to change the constitution, Maps refuses to even put forward a proposal.
They will never....not ever have independence, as that would need a 75% majority vote yes of the Parliament if not the entire population, which will never happen...
Why would we give away part of our own country.
These English language forums and blogs are a joke, if they had any idea they would be commenting in Spanish.
Most of the expats....or immigrants are clueless.
Cheers, back home Monday, just sorted my BBC money lol
the references to expat immigrants and bbc money at the end are due to discussions we have around the uk,eu and ukip
wc98 said:
Andy Zarse said:
76% was the last figure i saw.
To be clear; this vote is to allow a referendum on independence. It is NOT an in/out vote in itself.
nope ,it is not even that. it is a group of people basically running a poll using home made cardboard boxes instead of the ipsos-mori style polls we get in the uk.To be clear; this vote is to allow a referendum on independence. It is NOT an in/out vote in itself.
when i mentioned this to a spanish bloke i know on another forum, this was the reply i received.
It is far too much to explain here, but just a few points.
1 Catalunia does not belong to the Catalans.
2.It has never been a separate country.
3.The sovereignty of the country resides with all Spaniards .....article 2 of the constitution.....which also states that the nation is indivisible.
In other words Catalonia belongs to all of us not just the Catalans
Not even president Mariano Rajoy can order a referendum, nor Parliament.
The only way to have a legal referendum is to change the constitution, Maps refuses to even put forward a proposal.
They will never....not ever have independence, as that would need a 75% majority vote yes of the Parliament if not the entire population, which will never happen...
Why would we give away part of our own country.
These English language forums and blogs are a joke, if they had any idea they would be commenting in Spanish.
Most of the expats....or immigrants are clueless.
Cheers, back home Monday, just sorted my BBC money lol
the references to expat immigrants and bbc money at the end are due to discussions we have around the uk,eu and ukip
So are you saying that if the vote goes ahead the tanks could roll in and there'll be paramilitaries from Madrid on the streets of Barcelona? If not, how is Rahoy going to stop the vote going ahead next week?
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