Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Andy Zarse said:
Nice to know your mate has a better finger on the country's pulse than an internationally respected Professor of macro-economics who has lived and worked in Barcelona for twenty five years.
So are you saying that if the vote goes ahead the tanks could roll in and there'll be paramilitaries from Madrid on the streets of Barcelona? If not, how is Rahoy going to stop the vote going ahead next week?
More than that Andy the Spanish didn't mess about when they changed "the constitution" several times at the behest of the EU to allow for further austerity measures and a budget capSo are you saying that if the vote goes ahead the tanks could roll in and there'll be paramilitaries from Madrid on the streets of Barcelona? If not, how is Rahoy going to stop the vote going ahead next week?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/aug/26/sp...
So it doesn't really hold water to now rely on a "immutable" constitution now. Finally as a number of experts in Spain have pointed out, whats the point of a constitution if it denies the democratic will of the people.
Spain cannot stick its fingers in its ears forever, Look at the UK, we held the referendum, even though it was a risk, and all sides (whatever they say) have worked pretty hard to keep it civil, with compromises on both sides to ensure democracy is respected and the will of the people is observed.
The Catalunia question is incredibly interesting. It won't fade away.
It gets mention in this article. I know people balk at ZH links, but this article does not so much float consipracy theories as flag-up some pretty obvious risks and trends in what is starting to look like a post-global world economy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/globaliza...
It gets mention in this article. I know people balk at ZH links, but this article does not so much float consipracy theories as flag-up some pretty obvious risks and trends in what is starting to look like a post-global world economy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/globaliza...
Digga said:
The Catalunia question is incredibly interesting. It won't fade away.
It gets mention in this article. I know people balk at ZH links, but this article does not so much float consipracy theories as flag-up some pretty obvious risks and trends in what is starting to look like a post-global world economy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/globaliza...
It neatly illustrates and highlights possible geo-political risks. And then some. Still, it wouldn't be ZH without all roads leading to a fiat currency collapse! It gets mention in this article. I know people balk at ZH links, but this article does not so much float consipracy theories as flag-up some pretty obvious risks and trends in what is starting to look like a post-global world economy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/globaliza...
My view is we will end up with a globalised trade in a post-global world. I suspect there will be many nasty (hopefully localised) squabbles along the way too.
ETA an observation, we are living in truly weird times; Sweden cuts interest rates with a strong economy whilst its close neighbour Russia raises them with a weak one. Japan has little by way of resources, low inflation and negative real wage growth; Russia has many resources, high inflation and positive real wage growth. For different reasons they are both in economic trouble. The the one thing they share are declining currencies, which the ECB would desperately like to help fix the broken Eurozone... you work it all out because I'm buggered if I can.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 3rd November 13:09
Andy Zarse said:
Nice to know your mate has a better finger on the country's pulse than an internationally respected Professor of macro-economics who has lived and worked in Barcelona for twenty five years.
So are you saying that if the vote goes ahead the tanks could roll in and there'll be paramilitaries from Madrid on the streets of Barcelona? If not, how is Rahoy going to stop the vote going ahead next week?
it is not an official vote,he does not have to stop it.the result will make no difference to what actually happens in the country. i personally think that it will increase tension surrounding the issue ,and it may well cause problems, but it is a very different situation to say the scottish referendum ,where a recognised country was having a vote on whether to leave a union.So are you saying that if the vote goes ahead the tanks could roll in and there'll be paramilitaries from Madrid on the streets of Barcelona? If not, how is Rahoy going to stop the vote going ahead next week?
a representative comparison in the uk would be if the people of london decided to have a vote on leaving the uk ,or england, to create an individual state. it is not likely to happen,and would require constitutional change just to create a mechanism to allow an official vote in the first place.
ps, far be it from me to disagree with opinion of a professor,but your first sentence sounded remarkably like an appeal to authority
Edited by wc98 on Monday 3rd November 13:05
wc98 said:
ps, far be it from me to disagree with opinion of a professor,but your first sentence sounded remarkably like an appeal to authority
It was, and I've never understood why such appeals are always looked upon in a poor light, provided of course they are correct! Edited by wc98 on Monday 3rd November 13:05
Andy Zarse said:
wc98 said:
ps, far be it from me to disagree with opinion of a professor,but your first sentence sounded remarkably like an appeal to authority
It was, and I've never understood why such appeals are always looked upon in a poor light, provided of course they are correct! Edited by wc98 on Monday 3rd November 13:05
As you know Mr Z, that's the problem, all too often the authority turns out to be wrong.
Not forgetting the fact that an authority can usually be found supporting any one of all sides in any debate, so they cancel each other out but retain tenure and grant funding.
Andy Zarse said:
It was, and I've never understood why such appeals are always looked upon in a poor light, provided of course they are correct!
agreed .the surprising thing to me is that the spanish as an entire nation are not out on the streets given what has happened to their economy over the last few years. their current eu inspired situation is a mess,and if allowed to continue will surely see the country ruined in the long term ,as ore and more young people are forced to leave ,the reported levels of youth unemployment alone are mind boggling.turbobloke said:
...but retain tenure and grant funding.
Retaining "ample government funding" and defending against "vicious Tory cuts" is surely the main propose for these types, and not just on "Climate Science". I'm sure you're well aware of all the fake charities paid grants by the EU to lobby on policy such that regulations can be implemented due to popular demand... Hurrah! wc98 said:
agreed .the surprising thing to me is that the spanish as an entire nation are not out on the streets given what has happened to their economy over the last few years. their current eu inspired situation is a mess,and if allowed to continue will surely see the country ruined in the long term ,as ore and more young people are forced to leave ,the reported levels of youth unemployment alone are mind boggling.
For some context, I'm old enough to remember when UB40 bewailed the levels of youth unemployment (again due to "vicious Tory cuts" during the First Coming of Thatcher) with their so-called "I am a one in ten" song. Well a Greek equivalent today would need to be "I am a one in one point nine". It doesn't scan if you ask me, but I too simply can't understand why European youth aren't up in arms about having their lives destroyed over a bit of paper with Euro written on it. I'd be out burning cars and throwing rocks and that at the pigs man. .the surprising thing to me is that the spanish as an entire nation are not out on the streets given what has happened to their economy over the last few years. their current eu inspired situation is a mess,and if allowed to continue will surely see the country ruined in the long term ,as ore and more young people are forced to leave ,the reported levels of youth unemployment alone are mind boggling.Andy Zarse said:
For some context, I'm old enough to remember when UB40 bewailed the levels of youth unemployment (again due to "vicious Tory cuts" during the First Coming of Thatcher) with their so-called "I am a one in ten" song. Well a Greek equivalent today would need to be "I am a one in one point nine". It doesn't scan if you ask me, but I too simply can't understand why European youth aren't up in arms about having their lives destroyed over a bit of paper with Euro written on it. I'd be out burning cars and throwing rocks and that at the pigs man.
This doesn't fully explain it but (and I'm going from memory)... From the original members of the EU (6), 4 of them didn't exist as they are 200 years ago. And in the 20th century all of them had been fascist countries or occupied by a fascist power. So perhaps when compared to their not so distant national history (or lack of it), the EU/Euro doesn't seem quite so bad?This also may be why the UK is such a resistant EU member. Where in other countries many of the institutions of the EU are in some ways starting from scratch, in the UK we're having to replace or alter our existing institutions that have been fine for many centuries and in which people see no need for change.
Esseesse said:
Andy Zarse said:
For some context, I'm old enough to remember when UB40 bewailed the levels of youth unemployment (again due to "vicious Tory cuts" during the First Coming of Thatcher) with their so-called "I am a one in ten" song. Well a Greek equivalent today would need to be "I am a one in one point nine". It doesn't scan if you ask me, but I too simply can't understand why European youth aren't up in arms about having their lives destroyed over a bit of paper with Euro written on it. I'd be out burning cars and throwing rocks and that at the pigs man.
This doesn't fully explain it but (and I'm going from memory)... From the original members of the EU (6), 4 of them didn't exist as they are 200 years ago. And in the 20th century all of them had been fascist countries or occupied by a fascist power. So perhaps when compared to their not so distant national history (or lack of it), the EU/Euro doesn't seem quite so bad?This also may be why the UK is such a resistant EU member. Where in other countries many of the institutions of the EU are in some ways starting from scratch, in the UK we're having to replace or alter our existing institutions that have been fine for many centuries and in which people see no need for change.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/deep-...
'To prevent dangerous deflation, the ECB is discussing a massive program to purchase government bonds. Monetary watchdogs are divided over the measure, with some alleging that central bankers are being held hostage by politicians.'
'To prevent dangerous deflation, the ECB is discussing a massive program to purchase government bonds. Monetary watchdogs are divided over the measure, with some alleging that central bankers are being held hostage by politicians.'
Andy Zarse said:
Esseesse said:
Andy Zarse said:
For some context, I'm old enough to remember when UB40 bewailed the levels of youth unemployment (again due to "vicious Tory cuts" during the First Coming of Thatcher) with their so-called "I am a one in ten" song. Well a Greek equivalent today would need to be "I am a one in one point nine". It doesn't scan if you ask me, but I too simply can't understand why European youth aren't up in arms about having their lives destroyed over a bit of paper with Euro written on it. I'd be out burning cars and throwing rocks and that at the pigs man.
This doesn't fully explain it but (and I'm going from memory)... From the original members of the EU (6), 4 of them didn't exist as they are 200 years ago. And in the 20th century all of them had been fascist countries or occupied by a fascist power. So perhaps when compared to their not so distant national history (or lack of it), the EU/Euro doesn't seem quite so bad?This also may be why the UK is such a resistant EU member. Where in other countries many of the institutions of the EU are in some ways starting from scratch, in the UK we're having to replace or alter our existing institutions that have been fine for many centuries and in which people see no need for change.
First of all, political uncertainty. As much as you'll try to convince me that this applies to the UK as well, the fact that a significant change in ruling party won't basically alter the economic policies and the way the country is run has a big impact. Why bother with a revolution if nothing changes.
Second, Troika. Now that you've done the revolution and your country is in chaos (remember that Berlusconi effectively was overthrown) what you end up is the Troika deciding for you. At your home. And to many Troika equals Germany. And we have a clear example of how well it worked in Greece. No thanks.
Third, Bureaucracy. One of the big issues of these countries is the weight and impact of bureaucracy. Why setting up a company in the UK takes 6 days while in Italy 45 (if it all goes to plan)? This means that almost half the employed population is a p.s. worker. Which are the chances of success of a revolution that would see them unemployed and unpaid?
Fourth, salaries and general work attitude. I have an MSc in finance and multiple years experience in investment bank. When I used to work in Italy my salary, already on the respectable (not high) side, was equivalent to 1.1K per month. And when asking for advancement after rave year end reviews, I was told that I should be grateful to still have a job. And that I was too young. Not inexperienced. Young.
These are some of the reasons why a change is sadly very unlikely. Trust me, I'd love to go back but simply there are no conditions. This is the result of some ill-minded policies and "social" approaches to work that maybe have granted prosperity in the past, but are simply unsustainable in the modern world.
Enricogto said:
Well, I can give you the explanation for Italy since I fled that exact situation.
First of all, political uncertainty. As much as you'll try to convince me that this applies to the UK as well, the fact that a significant change in ruling party won't basically alter the economic policies and the way the country is run has a big impact. Why bother with a revolution if nothing changes.
Second, Troika. Now that you've done the revolution and your country is in chaos (remember that Berlusconi effectively was overthrown) what you end up is the Troika deciding for you. At your home. And to many Troika equals Germany. And we have a clear example of how well it worked in Greece. No thanks.
Third, Bureaucracy. One of the big issues of these countries is the weight and impact of bureaucracy. Why setting up a company in the UK takes 6 days while in Italy 45 (if it all goes to plan)? This means that almost half the employed population is a p.s. worker. Which are the chances of success of a revolution that would see them unemployed and unpaid?
Fourth, salaries and general work attitude. I have an MSc in finance and multiple years experience in investment bank. When I used to work in Italy my salary, already on the respectable (not high) side, was equivalent to 1.1K per month. And when asking for advancement after rave year end reviews, I was told that I should be grateful to still have a job. And that I was too young. Not inexperienced. Young.
These are some of the reasons why a change is sadly very unlikely. Trust me, I'd love to go back but simply there are no conditions. This is the result of some ill-minded policies and "social" approaches to work that maybe have granted prosperity in the past, but are simply unsustainable in the modern world.
If you're comfortable with answering, can I just clarify - are you Italian and now working in IB in London? First of all, political uncertainty. As much as you'll try to convince me that this applies to the UK as well, the fact that a significant change in ruling party won't basically alter the economic policies and the way the country is run has a big impact. Why bother with a revolution if nothing changes.
Second, Troika. Now that you've done the revolution and your country is in chaos (remember that Berlusconi effectively was overthrown) what you end up is the Troika deciding for you. At your home. And to many Troika equals Germany. And we have a clear example of how well it worked in Greece. No thanks.
Third, Bureaucracy. One of the big issues of these countries is the weight and impact of bureaucracy. Why setting up a company in the UK takes 6 days while in Italy 45 (if it all goes to plan)? This means that almost half the employed population is a p.s. worker. Which are the chances of success of a revolution that would see them unemployed and unpaid?
Fourth, salaries and general work attitude. I have an MSc in finance and multiple years experience in investment bank. When I used to work in Italy my salary, already on the respectable (not high) side, was equivalent to 1.1K per month. And when asking for advancement after rave year end reviews, I was told that I should be grateful to still have a job. And that I was too young. Not inexperienced. Young.
These are some of the reasons why a change is sadly very unlikely. Trust me, I'd love to go back but simply there are no conditions. This is the result of some ill-minded policies and "social" approaches to work that maybe have granted prosperity in the past, but are simply unsustainable in the modern world.
Enricogto said:
Yes I'm Italian, and I work now as a Risk management consultant for IBs in London.
Interesting and challenging to hear your views. I cannot see how Italy can recover, given the reality of the extent of the bureacracy etc. Nor can I see how Greece, Portugal, Spain, France and all the other failing sovereign states within the EU can possibly continue with this apparent nonsense. I was desperately sorry when I saw the reality of the state of play in Italy for myself some years ago and the obvious hopelessly inefficient and self serving governance that is totally failing to give Italy the impetus needed to return to growth that is so desperately needed. It is a great shame because the Italians are a delightful people and the country itself is glorious. How anyone can see this madness continuing I do not know. Obviously the politicians involved are seeking to coin as much as they can whilst the game is still running. But end it must because these individual sovereign states cannot even afford the interest on their steadily increasing debts let alone the capital repayment. Real question now is when and how will the realisation that the game is up come over the EU? Tragedy that so many people will suffer in consequence but this nonsense is going to grind to a halt one way or another. Because no system which relies for its very daily survival on lending more and more to already hopelessly insolvent states can be kept running once the reality of the situation becomes apparent. Matter of time.
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