Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
maffski said:
DJRC said:
EskimoArapaho said:
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
80%; can you supply a source?Just over 80% for 'should Catalonia be a state' and 50% for full independence from Spain.
I do think the probable resuts in the forthcoming Rochester byelection, and the pretty strong showing by UKIP who are well out in front currently despite the Conservatives trying every trick in the book to hold the seat will be the next event to ruffle the feathers of westminster politicians. If and when another UKIP MP s elected into the Westminster Parliament then I do think yet another stumbling block has arrived to the UK remaining in the EU longer term.
Once the reality of there being a party capable standing in a number of seats in the UK, capable of changing the entire approach of the UK to a number of issues happily ignored by the current incumbents at Westminster, becomes apparent to the UK voters, which I think is exactly what these election results are now showing, then I do think major changes will follow in voting patterns in the forthcoming election in 2015 and the cosy boys club that controls Westminster will suddenly find life very different.
One way or another there are too many unhappy, unfulfilled and bitter voters in the current system and I can see every chance that there is a change coming shorty. Matter of time I think: the game is changing. As these events suggest.
maffski said:
DJRC said:
EskimoArapaho said:
DJRC said:
So pretty much what my dago chaps have been saying Andy. The siZe of the majority is looking around 80% on current polling!
80%; can you supply a source?Just over 80% for 'should Catalonia be a state' and 50% for full independence from Spain.
Edited by hidetheelephants on Monday 10th November 18:56
EskimoArapaho said:
So, just 33% of the electorate opted for statehood within Spain, and all of 20% opted for full independence. Not quite as earth-shattering as DJRC claimed? Will check whether the Euro has collapsed in a moment...
The vote wasn't going to influence things one way or another. So I can well imagine folk not bothering to turn out. However I accept the point, it is extremely difficult to get people who favour the status quo to turn out to vote in a meaningless election that won't change a thing. - Hence 80% in favour of change.
Nobody really expects Catalan to become independent. Do they ?
EskimoArapaho said:
So, just 33% of the electorate opted for statehood within Spain, and all of 20% opted for full independence. Not quite as earth-shattering as DJRC claimed? Will check whether the Euro has collapsed in a moment...
It's not too different to the normal voting turnout in a UK election.Equally meaningless of course. Just something to make politicians feel important for a short while.
QE to the rescue huh... Does Japan point the way? Abe gave $1 trillion to Japan's stock market and all he got was this lousy recession: http://t.co/sqhACpz2zOhttp://t.co/0TAFHRjgMs
Andy Zarse said:
QE to the rescue huh... Does Japan point the way? Abe gave $1 trillion to Japan's stock market and all he got was this lousy recession: http://t.co/sqhACpz2zOhttp://t.co/0TAFHRjgMs
Should have gone more directly to the people. If you want a consumer boom, give tax cuts. I worry sometimes that economists over think things. The tried and tested method of creating demand in an economy is to cut taxation. Ok you will lose a percentage to imports over domestic demand, but you recover some of that anyway via the multiplier effect (do they even teach that anymore)
Buying up fancy bonds and other financial instruments, just allows banks to rebuild balance sheets, not actually pass money into the "real economy" - how else do you get 3% GDP growth where no-one actually feels better off
Gargamel, I agree.
At the very least, tax cuts on business investment (which might have a chance of creating a future return, rather than just a debt mountain) would be more sensible.
When many of the world's ultra-wealthy investors are publicly criticising QE for widening the wealth gap whilst doing nothing for GDP, you have to wonder who thinks it's still the best solution?
At the very least, tax cuts on business investment (which might have a chance of creating a future return, rather than just a debt mountain) would be more sensible.
When many of the world's ultra-wealthy investors are publicly criticising QE for widening the wealth gap whilst doing nothing for GDP, you have to wonder who thinks it's still the best solution?
Gargamel said:
Should have gone more directly to the people. If you want a consumer boom, give tax cuts.
I worry sometimes that economists over think things. The tried and tested method of creating demand in an economy is to cut taxation. Ok you will lose a percentage to imports over domestic demand, but you recover some of that anyway via the multiplier effect (do they even teach that anymore)
Buying up fancy bonds and other financial instruments, just allows banks to rebuild balance sheets, not actually pass money into the "real economy" - how else do you get 3% GDP growth where no-one actually feels better off
I worry sometimes that economists over think things. The tried and tested method of creating demand in an economy is to cut taxation. Ok you will lose a percentage to imports over domestic demand, but you recover some of that anyway via the multiplier effect (do they even teach that anymore)
Buying up fancy bonds and other financial instruments, just allows banks to rebuild balance sheets, not actually pass money into the "real economy" - how else do you get 3% GDP growth where no-one actually feels better off
Digga said:
Gargamel, I agree.
FWIW so do I.Driller said:
Steffan said:
I can only see one end to this nonsense.
No, wait, don't tell me...
from me.I thought the observations from Cameron on a likely major recession in the Wesrern world recentl reported were interesting. I also think the complete lack of any economic sense in the ridiculous money printing that the EU is operating, the USA is operating and so many other economies are operating means that in the end the economic wheels are going to come off in a very big way and one heck of a curfuffle will ensue accordingly.
If major economies are deliberately pursuing economic policies of the "we can spend more than we earn, permanently," variety, there can only be one inevitable end. A massive readjustment of debt value and insolvency of the aforesaid economic lunatic policies must be the inevitable result. There can be no other result.
If, like the EU leaders, you have a plan to be well away by the time this happens, safely esconced with gold plated pensions and absolutely no consience about the consequences to the poor taxpayers of any of the affected countries, which will effectively be virtually all the Western Developed World, then clearly you may be better off in consequence. Providing your offshore shelter is itself unaffected. Tony Blair with his tens of millions being a good example and the Kinnocks being another, but one so odious I prefer not to think about. It cannot be the correct way to actually run a country economically and there must be only one result.
Spending massively more than a nation earns, without any improvement in infrastructure r worthwhile return, must undermine the basic strength of that economy. Hollande is demonstrating this daily quite superbly well, and vigorously, and with another few years in power no doubt wil sail off into the sunset whilst France nosedives totally into economic failure and who knows where after that. Modern politicians like Hollande, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Obama and Central Bank employees like Draghi and a whole host of other money grabbing chisellers esconced in modern politics are clearly only concerned with themselves. In consequence they will no doubt be safer and richer than the rest f us.
That cannot actually work for the economies they are deceiving in the process. It will end when the markets realise how fragile the solvency of the affected states has become. No doubt lots of political dishonesty and spin will keep this going for a while. But it cannot last. At some point, not far off now I think, this s going to end and end in tears, for the unsuspecting electorate and taxpayers. I wish that were not the case but regrettably, it must be.
Steffan said:
...ridiculous money printing that ... the USA is operating ...
Ended last monthhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-ends-bond-buys-...
fblm said:
Steffan said:
...ridiculous money printing that ... the USA is operating ...
Ended last monthhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-ends-bond-buys-...
Somehow I do not think that the ECB with its complete refusal to admit what it is doing lending billions to already hopelessly insolvent states will follow suit. The problem must end in disaster for the insolvent states and a great deal of economic difficulty for the European Union. Since not one of the Solvent Soereign states therein ( broadly the Northern EU States) will accept responsibility for any of the debt whatsoever I cannot see how the ECB can square the circle.
One way or another the Western World must finally learn that no Spvereign Stare can afford to live beyond its means. No matter how good the spin of the political leaders and how clever and crooked the central bankers may be this is not economically possible. That is the fundamental difficulty. I am delighted to see that the USA is making attempts, albeit insufficient, to address this nonsense. The EU, is not. Deliberately.The USA with its huge untapped remaining reserves of minersla and wealth therin may be able to ride this out. The EU will not.
Steffan said:
One way or another the Western World must finally learn that no Spvereign Stare can afford to live beyond its means. No matter how good the spin of the political leaders and how clever and crooked the central bankers may be this is not economically possible. That is the fundamental difficulty. I am delighted to see that the USA is making attempts, albeit insufficient, to address this nonsense. The EU, is not. Deliberately.The USA with its huge untapped remaining reserves of minersla and wealth therin may be able to ride this out. The EU will not.
Steffan, the "fudge" will carry on for much longer than we think. I thought that in Volume 1, and suspect will think the same in Volume 5Edited by Mermaid on Tuesday 18th November 18:15
Gargamel said:
EskimoArapaho said:
So, just 33% of the electorate opted for statehood within Spain, and all of 20% opted for full independence. Not quite as earth-shattering as DJRC claimed? Will check whether the Euro has collapsed in a moment...
The vote wasn't going to influence things one way or another. So I can well imagine folk not bothering to turn out. However I accept the point, it is extremely difficult to get people who favour the status quo to turn out to vote in a meaningless election that won't change a thing. - Hence 80% in favour of change.
Nobody really expects Catalan to become independent. Do they ?
As I said in my initial posts a lot of the outcome of this depends on how stupid Madrid is...fortunately for once they were bright enough to recognise not to be really dumb, because if they had got heavy handed it really could have caused trouble.
Catalonia wants a renegotiated deal with Madrid. That happens and this problem goes away, the Catalan Indie hardcore drops back down to its base level and everybody goes on happy. This doesn't happen and this will keep flaring up with each time being a more and more hardcore voice for Independence. 80 - 90% want this change.
As for European QE? Sooner or later it will happen and the Germans will sulk, then stop sulking as their order books fill up.
tumble dryer said:
It didn't provoke thoughts that Monbiot had much of a point.Monbiot says there's a housing bubble but outside London there isn't, PIMCO are miles away but not stupid and they can't see the circumstances for a national house price crash and don't share Monbiot's opinion.
We aren't wrecking the natural world, we're conserving it and cleaning it up as never before apart from the recent splurge in extracting rare earths for turbines and electric vehicles, Lomborg points out that London's air is cleaner than for hundreds of years and doesn't agree with Monbiot's opinion.
Nor are we 'wrecking' public services we just can't afford the growth in public sector largesse that colletivists such as Monbiot would like, which is ironic in an anti-growth-god article.
Cutting pointless red tape is a good thing but Monbiot would have us believe that every red inch protects some endangered species or starving journalist.
And so on, with more same-old Monbiot. For example "the benign and fragile climate in which we have prospered" is nonsense, climate has always been chaotic for one thing, never benign, and the claim assumes that manmade climate change fairytales and the myth of increasingly extreme weather are real. As greenwash anti-capitalist doggerel goes, it's positively Porrittesque.
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