Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
LongQ said:
Art0ir said:
I've spent time in Germany too and the deposit system works beautifully.
I recall taking the tram (that runs 24/7 and every 3 minutes) not 100 yards from a friend's apartment on the edge of town, with a beer in my hand to enjoy before we arrived at the pub (all perfectly legal). After reaching our stop (right beside the pub), we placed our empty bottles in line with the four dozen or so others outside the entrance, against the wall.
Stepping outside later that night, a homeless guy was in the process of bagging them all up to return to any one of the many supermarkets in the morning and presumably feed him quite well for the day.
Glass or plastic bottles?I recall taking the tram (that runs 24/7 and every 3 minutes) not 100 yards from a friend's apartment on the edge of town, with a beer in my hand to enjoy before we arrived at the pub (all perfectly legal). After reaching our stop (right beside the pub), we placed our empty bottles in line with the four dozen or so others outside the entrance, against the wall.
Stepping outside later that night, a homeless guy was in the process of bagging them all up to return to any one of the many supermarkets in the morning and presumably feed him quite well for the day.
rovermorris999 said:
A deposit on bottles isn't bad idea. When I was a child we used to hunt for pop bottles and take them back to the shop for the few pence deposit. You could make enough for a day's sweets and chips.
I can recall such times. It was especially important for large bottles with stoppers attached.But then the economy changed and metal bottle caps became the norm (the inability to re-seal effectively increased content sales ....) and cans/tetrapak containers altered the manufacturing logic.
There was a time not so long ago (it may well still be the case) when glass re-cycling had so flooded the market with cheap and low quality glass that it was being sold for less than it cost to collect and ship to a recycling plant. Strangely only tax funded subsidies kept the concept going. Where have we seen that before?
I recall reading an article a few years ago about the City of New York, in the middle of their "Green recycling" drive, stopping the glass recycling project as it was costing them $70million a year to operate that being the difference between the costs and the income from the collected material.
PET plastic bottles pretty much killed of the re-use market by undercutting the cost of returns, collections and sterilising to modern standards.
Now there may in fact be an economically viable market for recycling glass and plastics but as long as there is a potential enforcement regulation that would require and attract support from some form of taxation that supply and demand model is unlikely to develop.
The tax funded version will probably continue anyway with the tax support being hidden as far behind the numbers as possible - just like the Draghi proposals for countering the blighted economies.
Draghi kicking the can again. All hot air and rhetoric as far as I can tell, with veiled threats of Eurozone government bond buying if the economic cycle doesn't get better. Hopefully Angela will stick to her guns and veto such foolishness, but once their backs are up against the wall who knows?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30327619
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30327619
LongQ said:
I have just spent a little over 24hrs in Munich. I felt sure I might bump into DJRC at some point - possibly the flight home - but if I did I was not aware of it.
It was a slightly odd trip for a number of reasons.
I had to be impressed by the relative ease of travel from the airport (owned by Audi it seems - the entire place is dominated by Audi's presence) via the winter market entertainment centre.
I briefly visited an enormous office complex where open space corridors are the norm and an individual's office has 4 desks with space and entire call centre left over. There seemed to be many such individuals in residence. EU funding of course.
I stayed in a fairly down market but still comfortable enough hotel near the centre (convenient for a 1 night stop) for not too much money and consumed a decent sized bottle of beer from the fridge that cost me just €2 - but only because I told them about it on departure.
On the streets I was aware of a large number of German speaking people who were clearly not of German origin.
I was told that the area has just 2% unemployment. I assume that so far that are not including begging as a form of employment to be included in the local GDP. If they were they could probably claim full employment.
In general the prices of "stuff" seemed quite high.
The airport experience was somewhat interesting.
On arrival, taking the S-Bahn, as I waited on board I observed a young man be searched having been stopped by 2 non-uniformed security people ( I assume - they seemed to be working to official regulatory training. )
My return journey left me with plenty of time at the airport after late changes to the meeting schedule so time to observe how much space it offered; how many people in all sorts of uniform (some looking like they ought still to be in school) wandered around with semi-military style waist bands with holsters that I assume held Tasers. If they were proper pistols that could be an even greater concern. I decided not to get close enough to find out.
Sitting around waiting to go through the security entrances (I had a lot of time to spare before the flight ....) I watched a chap rummaging through the waste bins that people used to dump their liquids before going through the scan. He did this every few minutes. Just sat there watching one bin. Then I realised there was another chap, clearly know to the first one, who was doing the same thing but travelling around the bins rather than watching just one. With a trolley set up to look like he was a passenger a casual observer would have taken him for someone about to board a plane. Then a third person turned up - an older lady - also appearing with an airport trolley and at a glance looking like a traveller. They hardly acknowledged each other in a public way but one got the impression they might be a family. All three of them rummaged through the bins I could see on a regular basis extracting an occasional not quite empty plastic bottle of water or similar.
Presumably there is an entire economic sub-class who make a living re-cycling plastic bottles and other peoples discarded liquids from airport waste bins.
I wonder if they are counted as employed?
There might be some sort of basis for this. Once I got through security I observed how the many shops air-side seemed confident in trying to charge €2.40 for a 1/2 ltr bottle of water. Except for one duty free style emporium that was asking just €1 - plus a 25cent "deposit" for the bottle seemingly connected to a "green" surcharge of some sort. Perhaps there is a economic basis for collecting used plastic water bottles if you can get 25cents a time for them.
If there were enough plastic bottles in circulation the Central Bank might have a source of biblical proportions (loaves, fishes, water into wine, etc.) for turning their €8bn into something close to the several hundred billion required as discussed above. I mean, how much does it cost to make a plastic bottle in huge quantities?
The raw material cost of a 500ml bottle would seem to be about 2p - so let's call that 2.5cents. So the waste for re-cycling value must be considerably less than that since most of the production process costs will be for things other than raw materials - especially when having to reclaim the raw materials first. So lets say .25cents waste value as a generous estimate. The full bottle cost once re-manufactured is likely to be about 10 cents.
So, if we exclude inconvenient things like energy (the capacity already exists), plant (the machine already exist), factories (there are some around already ...) and all admin (already exis .......) you can turn the material cost or .25cents or less into a seals value of circa 10cents per .5 ltr bottle. (Using a weighted average of all bottle sizes of course.) That's 40x cost in man maths terms.
Not too dissimilar to the EU proposals of 8Bn to 360Bn as I think I gleaned from post above.
So there you have it. Draghi can make the entire process work with a little man maths and some people collecting used and part used plastic bottles at European airports augmented by declaring the fiscal benefits of full employment through the black economy and its beneficial effects on GDP.
Sorted.
I've been in Italy for most of this summer, sorry :PIt was a slightly odd trip for a number of reasons.
I had to be impressed by the relative ease of travel from the airport (owned by Audi it seems - the entire place is dominated by Audi's presence) via the winter market entertainment centre.
I briefly visited an enormous office complex where open space corridors are the norm and an individual's office has 4 desks with space and entire call centre left over. There seemed to be many such individuals in residence. EU funding of course.
I stayed in a fairly down market but still comfortable enough hotel near the centre (convenient for a 1 night stop) for not too much money and consumed a decent sized bottle of beer from the fridge that cost me just €2 - but only because I told them about it on departure.
On the streets I was aware of a large number of German speaking people who were clearly not of German origin.
I was told that the area has just 2% unemployment. I assume that so far that are not including begging as a form of employment to be included in the local GDP. If they were they could probably claim full employment.
In general the prices of "stuff" seemed quite high.
The airport experience was somewhat interesting.
On arrival, taking the S-Bahn, as I waited on board I observed a young man be searched having been stopped by 2 non-uniformed security people ( I assume - they seemed to be working to official regulatory training. )
My return journey left me with plenty of time at the airport after late changes to the meeting schedule so time to observe how much space it offered; how many people in all sorts of uniform (some looking like they ought still to be in school) wandered around with semi-military style waist bands with holsters that I assume held Tasers. If they were proper pistols that could be an even greater concern. I decided not to get close enough to find out.
Sitting around waiting to go through the security entrances (I had a lot of time to spare before the flight ....) I watched a chap rummaging through the waste bins that people used to dump their liquids before going through the scan. He did this every few minutes. Just sat there watching one bin. Then I realised there was another chap, clearly know to the first one, who was doing the same thing but travelling around the bins rather than watching just one. With a trolley set up to look like he was a passenger a casual observer would have taken him for someone about to board a plane. Then a third person turned up - an older lady - also appearing with an airport trolley and at a glance looking like a traveller. They hardly acknowledged each other in a public way but one got the impression they might be a family. All three of them rummaged through the bins I could see on a regular basis extracting an occasional not quite empty plastic bottle of water or similar.
Presumably there is an entire economic sub-class who make a living re-cycling plastic bottles and other peoples discarded liquids from airport waste bins.
I wonder if they are counted as employed?
There might be some sort of basis for this. Once I got through security I observed how the many shops air-side seemed confident in trying to charge €2.40 for a 1/2 ltr bottle of water. Except for one duty free style emporium that was asking just €1 - plus a 25cent "deposit" for the bottle seemingly connected to a "green" surcharge of some sort. Perhaps there is a economic basis for collecting used plastic water bottles if you can get 25cents a time for them.
If there were enough plastic bottles in circulation the Central Bank might have a source of biblical proportions (loaves, fishes, water into wine, etc.) for turning their €8bn into something close to the several hundred billion required as discussed above. I mean, how much does it cost to make a plastic bottle in huge quantities?
The raw material cost of a 500ml bottle would seem to be about 2p - so let's call that 2.5cents. So the waste for re-cycling value must be considerably less than that since most of the production process costs will be for things other than raw materials - especially when having to reclaim the raw materials first. So lets say .25cents waste value as a generous estimate. The full bottle cost once re-manufactured is likely to be about 10 cents.
So, if we exclude inconvenient things like energy (the capacity already exists), plant (the machine already exist), factories (there are some around already ...) and all admin (already exis .......) you can turn the material cost or .25cents or less into a seals value of circa 10cents per .5 ltr bottle. (Using a weighted average of all bottle sizes of course.) That's 40x cost in man maths terms.
Not too dissimilar to the EU proposals of 8Bn to 360Bn as I think I gleaned from post above.
So there you have it. Draghi can make the entire process work with a little man maths and some people collecting used and part used plastic bottles at European airports augmented by declaring the fiscal benefits of full employment through the black economy and its beneficial effects on GDP.
Sorted.
The "family" of tramps at Munich airport are reasonably well known and pretty much ignored and left to their own devices.
Its sometimes tasers, sometimes guns. You don't f
k about with the police in Germany, they will pull their gun on you, they will put you on the ground as quickly as possible if they have to. There are a few beggars and homeless in Munich its true. The musico/busker types you saw though are all licenced and "approved" by the city.
The inspectors on the S-Bahn are always in civvies, but most regular travellers can spot them if you are being naughty and travelling sans pass.
Stuff is expensive true.
You can get decent hotels quite cheaply in the city centre, I have stayed in most of them! You wasted your evening staying in though, its a magical time to be out at night in Munich currently.
Interesting piece on Europe, Pope Francis speech, Putin, birth rates, immigration and unusual political alliances forming.
http://20committee.com/2014/11/29/is-this-the-end-...
http://20committee.com/2014/11/29/is-this-the-end-...
DJRC said:
You wasted your evening staying in though, its a magical time to be out at night in Munich currently.
It had been a long day with a revised schedule compare to the original plan and was travelling light with no 'leisure' wear. One plan was to meet up with an associate who was working elsewhere in the city but that didn't work out.And I don't really do magical these days.
Plus the following day looked exceedingly long - as it indeed turned out to be hanging around at the airport.
There were had a lot of sirens later in the evening. I got the impression that something was going off.
I must be getting old.
So my fellow armageddonista's how are we feeling today ?
In May 1 Euro was worth $1.37 as we stand today it has declined in value by 11% to $1.22 per Euro.
Significant ? A sign of Euro troubles, or driven by the end of QE in the US of A?
Manufacturing data weak again in Germany and growth forecasts slashed. Russian troubles largely to blame.
So despite an 11% decline in the Euro, which should have had buyers queuing up in Germany, it remains at 0.8% growth. If this is a recovery, then I can see some troubles ahead.
In May 1 Euro was worth $1.37 as we stand today it has declined in value by 11% to $1.22 per Euro.
Significant ? A sign of Euro troubles, or driven by the end of QE in the US of A?
Manufacturing data weak again in Germany and growth forecasts slashed. Russian troubles largely to blame.
So despite an 11% decline in the Euro, which should have had buyers queuing up in Germany, it remains at 0.8% growth. If this is a recovery, then I can see some troubles ahead.
Digga said:
Well the word is that, despite German opposition, Super Mario will kick off QE at ECB by the end of next month. Then we'll really start to see what the Euro's worth.
This is a bit like watching an F1 race where the main teams are on markedly different strategies and pit stop windows.
And there's a team from China who've brought tanks to the race. No-one knows why. Yet.This is a bit like watching an F1 race where the main teams are on markedly different strategies and pit stop windows.
A common lawyer said:
Digga said:
Well the word is that, despite German opposition, Super Mario will kick off QE at ECB by the end of next month. Then we'll really start to see what the Euro's worth.
This is a bit like watching an F1 race where the main teams are on markedly different strategies and pit stop windows.
And there's a team from China who've brought tanks to the race. No-one knows why. Yet.This is a bit like watching an F1 race where the main teams are on markedly different strategies and pit stop windows.
I tweeted with AE-P a few weeks ago, it was quite interesting, but as soon as I mentioned Japan he shut up! Japan has had plenty of QE but its economy is struggling for both growth and inflation. Indeed it has returned to recession. Around the world we have had quite a lot of QE but we seem to be slipping back into the economic quicksand again don’t we? In my opinion there are circumstances where it can be deflationary and others where it is inflationary. And lots of the time it does nothing except line the pockets of asset traders. Right now QE is really just another piece on the chessboard of currency wars.
Andy Zarse said:
There is an implicit assumption QE is some form of Holy Grail, with the current arch-priest being Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph. IMO it is far from a Holy Grail and we should for example not listen to his sources like hedge fund managers with portfolios stuffed full of Eurozone bonds for advice!
I tweeted with AE-P a few weeks ago, it was quite interesting, but as soon as I mentioned Japan he shut up! Japan has had plenty of QE but its economy is struggling for both growth and inflation. Indeed it has returned to recession. Around the world we have had quite a lot of QE but we seem to be slipping back into the economic quicksand again don’t we? In my opinion there are circumstances where it can be deflationary and others where it is inflationary. And lots of the time it does nothing except line the pockets of asset traders. Right now QE is really just another piece on the chessboard of currency wars.
The classic response to deflationary pressure should be to cut taxation. Even Bill Clinton and George Bush (both Snr & Jnr) understood this. I tweeted with AE-P a few weeks ago, it was quite interesting, but as soon as I mentioned Japan he shut up! Japan has had plenty of QE but its economy is struggling for both growth and inflation. Indeed it has returned to recession. Around the world we have had quite a lot of QE but we seem to be slipping back into the economic quicksand again don’t we? In my opinion there are circumstances where it can be deflationary and others where it is inflationary. And lots of the time it does nothing except line the pockets of asset traders. Right now QE is really just another piece on the chessboard of currency wars.
You don't need to print money, you need let people keep more of their own money. I see more bulls
t in the papers today about the Governments needing wages rises to stimulate demand. Er hello, cut VAT, cut income tax. Put the middle tax band threshold up to £53,000 - that's £4,000 in the pocket of 4.5million people in the UK. That would lift demand. In Europe, I am afraid the tax rates are just as bad. Can anyone think of a low tax economy that is struggling ?
RYH64E said:
Digga said:
Well the word is that, despite German opposition, Super Mario will kick off QE at ECB by the end of next month.
I thought Germany always got it's own way in the EU? I've certainly read that often enough on here.There's clearly a big turf war going on within the ECB. Do you consider that a healthy development?
B
Andy Zarse said:
The way things are blowing I would think the Germans would very much welcome QE just now. Funny that, eh?
There's clearly a big turf war going on within the ECB. Do you consider that a healthy development?
I think that the EU will do whatever is necessary to protect the euro, it's end isn't nigh, and to assume that Germany alone determines EU policy is naive.There's clearly a big turf war going on within the ECB. Do you consider that a healthy development?
RYH64E said:
B
Ya reckon huh?Andy Zarse said:
The way things are blowing I would think the Germans would very much welcome QE just now. Funny that, eh?
There's clearly a big turf war going on within the ECB. Do you consider that a healthy development?
I think that the EU will do whatever is necessary to protect the euro, it's end isn't nigh, and to assume that Germany alone determines EU policy is naive.There's clearly a big turf war going on within the ECB. Do you consider that a healthy development?
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff