Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[DJRC]

And?

What is agreed publicly need not be agreed in private.
If we can't manage to be so duplicitous as to tell one truth one way and another the other way then when we come to have the in/out debate use the position of re-instating full and as exploitative trading links with the Commonwealth as a stated tool and hammer it every day.

My point is more of the narrative. Currently the narrative is all "can't". Its all negative. Its all about negative impacts. Every aspect of every National debate & conversation we currently have going in the country is slanted towards the negative. To me that is ludicrous. Anybody who seeks to lead and win a debate must always set a positive tone from the start but nobody is leading any kind of positive conversation about Britain's future.

My post wasn't just about EU and/or Commonwealth, that was merely one aspect. Don't forget, Im not a raving anti-Eu're. Id be quite happy to stay in if it was to our advantage. What annoys me is that Britain at a strategic level no longer seems to be about seeking the advantage over every other fker.

[RYH64E]

DJRC said:

And?

What is agreed publicly need not be agreed in private.
If we can't manage to be so duplicitous as to tell one truth one way and another the other way then when we come to have the in/out debate use the position of re-instating full and as exploitative trading links with the Commonwealth as a stated tool and hammer it every day.

My point is more of the narrative. Currently the narrative is all "can't". Its all negative. Its all about negative impacts. Every aspect of every National debate & conversation we currently have going in the country is slanted towards the negative. To me that is ludicrous. Anybody who seeks to lead and win a debate must always set a positive tone from the start but nobody is leading any kind of positive conversation about Britain's future.

My post wasn't just about EU and/or Commonwealth, that was merely one aspect. Don't forget, Im not a raving anti-Eu're. Id be quite happy to stay in if it was to our advantage. What annoys me is that Britain at a strategic level no longer seems to be about seeking the advantage over every other fker.

Being in the EU is a tremendous opportunity for those who seek to take advantage of it. There's a cost to membership, and god knows it could do with reform, but as a trading nation we should be out there making money rather than sitting around whinging.

From my little factory in the UK I sell to b2b customers in France, Spain, Italy, Holland, Ireland, Belgium, and Germany, sales are up 35% year on year, net profit has doubled, and most of the growth has come from EU countries.

We have free and unfettered access to an enormous, protectionist market that's on our doorstep, I'm getting my share and in the process employing people and paying tax, if many more people did the same the country as a whole would be vastly more prosperous.

Edited by RYH64E on Thursday 1st January 09:16

[DJRC]

Im inclined to agree with you Rhy.
Im also inclined to agree with those who argue the same for such trading with the wider world. Im confused by those who don't argue for both.

But then Im also confused by those who don't see the world as one big oyster to rape and pillage to our maximum advantage as much as possible. The American attitude of go forth and conquer/exploit as much as possible is the only viable successful strategy. A maxim that has been true for the entirety of human history. And will remain true.

[RYH64E]

DJRC said:

Im inclined to agree with you Rhy.
Im also inclined to agree with those who argue the same for such trading with the wider world. Im confused by those who don't argue for both.

You are of course right about trading with the rest of the world, but trade with the EU is much easier. For one thing it's closer, you can do Milan and back in a day and it only costs £100 or so, the last time I went to South Africa it cost me a couple of grand and I was away all week. The other thing EU trade has in it's favour is that low cost RoW competitors are put at a disadvantage, they have geographic problems with delivery time and freight costs, cost problems with import tariffs, and logistical problems with customs. In the EU market we're competing head to head with the French/Spanish/Italians/Greeks etc, how hard can it be ffs?

Edited by RYH64E on Thursday 1st January 10:14

[steveT350C]

'Why 2015 could be the year Europe unravels'

(CNN) - Few European Union politicians will have raised a New Year glass in expectation of a brighter future. Many fear that 2015 could be the year in which both the euro and the European Union itself begin to unravel.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/01/opinion/european...

[Gargamel]

steveT350C said:

'Why 2015 could be the year Europe unravels'

(CNN) - Few European Union politicians will have raised a New Year glass in expectation of a brighter future. Many fear that 2015 could be the year in which both the euro and the European Union itself begin to unravel.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/01/opinion/european...

Is this the moment to re insert the original thread title "by autumn"

I think the Greek elections will go a long way to showing what kind of political pressure the Euro area will come under int the early part of the year. The UK general election won't have much impact, but I think the Politics this year will be more interesting. The economics of the euro area remain bonkers, but no one seems to care!

[LongQ]

Seems like Vicky Pryce can still pitch up in influential places presumably earning significant dosh along the way.

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/vicky-pr...


I think this was also pushed out in the Daily Mail Finance pages earlier this week.



Also in the Mail - Michael Hintze with some interesting observations.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2...


"The other big global issue identified by Hintze for 2015 is Greece and the eurozone. 'Will the Greeks fall out of Europe?' he asks rhetorically. 'Will it make a difference to European GDP (output)? Probably not.'

He believes the real impact will be the domino effect. 'It will give impetus for change in Spain. You will end up with the chaps in Italy throwing in the towel.'

The real peril, in his view, is that if this happens it will leak into the ECB that operates a transfer mechanism for deficits. This could be a massive danger. 'Germany has got about €700 billion (£545 billion) of exposure, most of which has gone to the rest of the eurozone. I promise you it will be a bloody nightmare,' he says.

Hintze thinks the big change in financial markets since the crisis is the shift of risk from banks to pension funds buying credit assets from the distressed banks."

[Snoggledog]

DJRC said:

There is a Commonwealth trading block that should be an immediate market for Britain to build, tap into and enjoy.

And who would they be?

Canada > Buys from the US
Australia > Home grown or buys from the US
India > Buys our brands and flogs back to us (JLR for example). Otherwise buys from everywhere apart from the UK.

So that's the three big ones out of the way.. Who else of any note is left?

[LongQ]

Snoggledog said:

DJRC said:

There is a Commonwealth trading block that should be an immediate market for Britain to build, tap into and enjoy.

And who would they be?

Canada > Buys from the US
Australia > Home grown or buys from the US
India > Buys our brands and flogs back to us (JLR for example). Otherwise buys from everywhere apart from the UK.

So that's the three big ones out of the way.. Who else of any note is left?

Australia is officially part of Asia these days. Has been for a while in effect.

Hong Kong is, of course, China.

New Zealand is part of California, mostly to do with film making of course.

The former African colonies have a tendency to be basket cases that would suck funds from wherever they could and for as long as they can while they develop a modern infrastructure and 18th century social systems.

That said probably all of them offer better long term development prospects than the EU which will always work on the basis of short-termism. Jam today ... we can talk about the butter (and maybe even the bread) later.

[Mermaid]

LongQ said:

Australia is officially part of Asia these days. Has been for a while in effect.

Hong Kong is, of course, China.

New Zealand is part of California, mostly to do with film making of course.

The former African colonies have a tendency to be basket cases that would suck funds from wherever they could and for as long as they can while they develop a modern infrastructure and 18th century social systems.

That said probably all of them offer better long term development prospects than the EU which will always work on the basis of short-termism. Jam today ... we can talk about the butter (and maybe even the bread) later.

Parts of Africa are Chinese, or will be soon.

The developed world ( the "West", the "North" can only go down, the developing world is on the way up in every way including labour. The hour glass has been tipped over.

[Claudia Skies]

Mermaid said:

Parts of Africa are Chinese, or will be soon.

Agreed. The white man needs to stop being embarrassed about /Africa because he has nothing to be embarrassed about. It's simply handing the continent to the Chinese on a plate.

[LongQ]

Mermaid said:

Parts of Africa are Chinese, or will be soon.

The developed world ( the "West", the "North" can only go down, the developing world is on the way up in every way including labour. The hour glass has been tipped over.

Africa and South America seem to be in a state of ownership flux.

Comparatively things in the UK are clear.

It is already owned by the Rest of the World.

In fact judging by how keen Eurozone businesses seem to be to take over more and more of the core infrastructure and the revenue potential it offers one can only assume that being outside the Eurozone and having weak political controls over the more important cash extraction and expatriation regulations makes the market especially attractive.

One might speculate that many of the major conglomerates, often Eurozone government owned or supported, are keen to invest precisely BECAUSE it gives them options not available elsewhere in their "home" territory but without the difficulty and risk of taking on, say, the USA and having to adapt to whatever rules are legalised out of the blue on the other side of the pond week by week.

How that will eventually develop as the China/Africa/South America axis develops powered by Australian and South African coal and minerals will be interesting to follow (for those young enough to be around and still compos mentis on 40 or 50 years from now.)

[Steffan]

Interesting times in the Eurozone are upon us again. May I open my remarks, which as usual are lengthy, with a New Year wish to all PHer's that the New Year brings happiness and fulfilment into their lives. Good luck to you all in your endeavours in life, which as we all know can be a little difficult from time to time.

I agree with many of the comments made recently on this thread and particularly with Gargamel's comments on the absolute economic madness behind the EU approach. I also recognise and understand the detailed observations and concerns expressed by DJRC and RYH64E about the EU and the considerable support that both express for the advantages  that being within the EU engender within the UK which certainly cannot lightly be thrown away.

But the real problem IMO remains as it always has throughout this affair, that he economic madness that lies behind the policies that the EU are promulgating in seeking to retain hopelessly insolvent sovereign states within a wholly unaffordable currency which was always beyond the economic abilities of these failing states. 

No amount of clever spin of the numbers and funny money printing to enable this economic nonsense to continue can actually address any of the real problems that these states now face.  They are clearly already insolvent and becoming more insolvent daily as their borrowings from the EU rise steadily.

The situation in Greece is genuinely desperate and no amount of clever PR work and fancy footwork can disguise that fact. The reason why I began this thread years ago was that it became obvious to me that Greece, italy, spain and Portugal, could survive within in a wholly unaffordable currency dominated by Germany. 

They could survive if Germany offered them a permanent subsidy but Germany will not accept any responsibility for any of the borrowings of other EU states or indeed any subsidy to EU states. That being the case this can only end in one way. The failing states must face reality and that is exactly what is visibly happening as the Greek government flounder with the falling support within Greece for the Austerity package to continue representing yet another hurdle for the EU to surmount. And on it will go.

I have never wanted the EU to fail. There is much about the massively improved simplicity of movement within the EU and business within the EU that I would love to retain. But if the EU continues to attempt to hold within a single currency all the failing states who are steadily falling further and further into more and more totally unaffordable debt there can be no other end but for these states to fall away.  The consequences to the EU would be very very serious.

Madness economics cannot subvert the fundamentals of economic facts. The failing states within the EU cannot be sustained within a currency that the failing states could were, in reality, never able to afford. Reality is coming and I suspect that this going to become apparent as the consequences of concerns of the worlds currency markets with the obvious consequences to the EU start to become apparent. 

Draghi is a indeed a very clever man but even he cannot sustain the impossible. Powerful and resourceful Draghi may well be, indeed is. But this whole business will only fail and fail one way. Since none of the solvent EU states will support or subsidise any of the failing states there must inevitably be a falling away of the failing states from the EU. And there will be consequences both within and without the EU.

That has always been the reality of economics and that remains the reality of economics. The EU is moving steadily into a more and more precarious position and more and more states are failing because they cannot actually afford to be within the EU.  Nor could they ever have afforded to be within that currency.  It was always a fiddle and the fiddle has been exposed.

This is not something I ever wanted to ever see but since no country can permanently enjoy a standard of living way beyond that which the economic circumstances of that country can afford, there can only be one end to this affair. The insolvent states must fall away. Draghi and co may be able to run this a little long pager but it is visibly getting more and mre difficult for the proffered reassurances and nonsense economics to be sustained. 

The real question now seems to me to be when and where will the first real crack show.  There has been no improvement in the economic position of any of the failing states for many years and there is not going to be any improvement. The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year, 

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Interesting times in the Eurozone are upon us again. May I open my remarks, which as usual are lengthy, with a New Year wish to all PHer's that the New Year brings happiness and fulfilment into their lives. Good luck to you all in your endeavours in life, which as we all know can be a little difficult from time to time.

Trust you are enjoying Lucca and its fine restaurants & the wine. Enjoying A Solaia this evening - perhaps too fine for the intense Pesto dishes in such abundance in Lucca.

Salut

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year, 

In Volume 1, we agreed the fudge would last longer than any of us could imagine. For the greater good, meaning a few vested interests, I would not be surprised if this carries on a lot longer unless someone bearing a gift throws a hand grenade into the meeting room. And even?

Shorting the Euro has been a good trade.

[911Gary]

Snoggledog said:

And who would they be?

Canada > Buys from the US
Australia > Home grown or buys from the US
India > Buys our brands and flogs back to us (JLR for example). Otherwise buys from everywhere apart from the UK.

So that's the three big ones out of the way.. Who else of any note is left?

Erm the rest of the whole world and Europe (they need us etc etc) oh and the BRICC economy.
We wont IMHO loose any trade by exit.

[911Gary]

Mermaid said:

Trust you are enjoying Lucca and its fine restaurants & the wine. Enjoying A Solaia this evening - perhaps too fine for the intense Pesto dishes in such abundance in Lucca.

Salut

Nice to hear from Steffan.

[911Gary]

Greece has to exit,its losses cannot be sustained,denied or allowed to be continuously increased,what is their debt secured against now? The Germans must be very worried,its almost (Well for the disillusioned at least) a pill worth taking rather than the dose off reality that is Greece is bankrupt and cannot pay-down.
They will vote with their feet IMHO the sweet lure of an end to austerity will be too strong,the subsequent course of action regarding their default and return to the Drachma after exit will be interesting to say the least,perhaps they will have a vote like Iceland letting the people take the brunt and make the decision rather than the politicians of the day.
G

[Driller]

oops

Edited by Driller on Saturday 3rd January 13:14

[Snoggledog]

911Gary said:

Snoggledog said:

And who would they be?

Canada > Buys from the US
Australia > Home grown or buys from the US
India > Buys our brands and flogs back to us (JLR for example). Otherwise buys from everywhere apart from the UK.

So that's the three big ones out of the way.. Who else of any note is left?

Erm the rest of the whole world and Europe (they need us etc etc) oh and the BRICC economy.
We wont IMHO loose any trade by exit.

DJRC was only talking about the Commonwealth countries hence my 'targeted' response