Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Steffan in 2011 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2012 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2013 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2014 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2015 just said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Happy new year Steffan 
Driller said:
Steffan in 2011 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2012 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2013 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2014 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2015 just said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Happy new year Steffan Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation. Looking at it retrospectively, at the comments from Tim Geitner and other who were there at the time, it seems Merkel came within five minutes of chucking Greece out in 2012. So I was close, but no cigar...
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too?
As to 2015 I think we are going to see the Euro, which is little more than a festering sore on the leg of the EU, stagger on. It's possible I suppose, Greece will be booted out if Syriza take power but my view is that Tsipras will cave in under German pressure, just like all the other Greek leaders before him. His problem is that he's a full-on Lefty with commensurately insane fruitloop economic policies. What troubles me most about this whole business is that the Greeks still don't seem to accept that the Euro isn't just a status symbol or a bit of paper, it's a hard currency they have to buy off another central bank. It comes with a very high cost; in essence a 50% wage cut, massive taxes, 30% unemployment, industrial production driven back to the levels last seen in 1976 under the military Junta, general austerity and the destruction of civic society. No currency can surely be worth such sacrifice.
I have no idea how or why Tsipras thinks he can keep Greece in the Euro and cancel the debt. If he achieves this then he's a better man than I Gungadin. If not, Germany will cut Greece loose and a disorderly default will follow, which realistically will be the worst of all worlds in the short/medium term. At least Tsipras will have the pleasure of pointing out to Merkel and the German people that they won't be getting a single pfennig back from the money they lent Greece. Incidentally, Germany not getting her money back is something I predicted years ago. A small comfort, but it won't help the Greek economy one bit.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 5th January 09:54
Andy Zarse said:
Happy new year all.
Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation. Looking at it retrospectively, at the comments from Tim Geitner and other who were there at the time, it seems Merkel came within five minutes of chucking Greece out in 2012. So I was close, but no cigar...
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too?
As to 2015 I think we are going to see the Euro, which is little more than a festering sore on the leg of the EU, stagger on. It's possible I suppose, Greece will be booted out if Syriza take power but my view is that Tsipras will cave in under German pressure, just like all the other Greek leaders before him. His problem is that he's a full-on Lefty with commensurately insane fruitloop economic policies. What troubles me most about this whole business is that the Greeks still don't seem to accept that the Euro isn't just a status symbol or a bit of paper, it's a hard currency they have to buy off another central bank. It comes with a very high cost; in essence a 50% wage cut, massive taxes, 30% unemployment, industrial production driven back to the levels last seen in 1976 under the military Junta, general austerity and the destruction of civic society. No currency can surely be worth such sacrifice.
I have no idea how or why Tsipras thinks he can keep Greece in the Euro and cancel the debt. If he achieves this then he's a better man than I Gungadin. If not, Germany will cut Greece loose and a disorderly default will follow, which realistically will be the worst of all worlds in the short/medium term. At least Tsipras will have the pleasure of pointing out to Merkel and the German people that they won't be getting a single pfennig back from the money they lent Greece. Incidentally, Germany not getting her money back is something I predicted years ago. A small comfort, but it won't help the Greek economy one bit.
I think that, sadly, it will carry on regardless. As long as the EU and individual country governments have most of the MSM in their pockets, they can and do get away with whatever they like, it seems.Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation. Looking at it retrospectively, at the comments from Tim Geitner and other who were there at the time, it seems Merkel came within five minutes of chucking Greece out in 2012. So I was close, but no cigar...
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too?
As to 2015 I think we are going to see the Euro, which is little more than a festering sore on the leg of the EU, stagger on. It's possible I suppose, Greece will be booted out if Syriza take power but my view is that Tsipras will cave in under German pressure, just like all the other Greek leaders before him. His problem is that he's a full-on Lefty with commensurately insane fruitloop economic policies. What troubles me most about this whole business is that the Greeks still don't seem to accept that the Euro isn't just a status symbol or a bit of paper, it's a hard currency they have to buy off another central bank. It comes with a very high cost; in essence a 50% wage cut, massive taxes, 30% unemployment, industrial production driven back to the levels last seen in 1976 under the military Junta, general austerity and the destruction of civic society. No currency can surely be worth such sacrifice.
I have no idea how or why Tsipras thinks he can keep Greece in the Euro and cancel the debt. If he achieves this then he's a better man than I Gungadin. If not, Germany will cut Greece loose and a disorderly default will follow, which realistically will be the worst of all worlds in the short/medium term. At least Tsipras will have the pleasure of pointing out to Merkel and the German people that they won't be getting a single pfennig back from the money they lent Greece. Incidentally, Germany not getting her money back is something I predicted years ago. A small comfort, but it won't help the Greek economy one bit.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 5th January 09:54
To me, the only scenario I can envisage to stop this is a mass revolution, which would lead to a culling of governments and media.
I cannot see that happening anytime soon, if at all, and the EU apparatchiks continue to build their golden palaces from our money, and continue to not have their accounts audited. I suspect they would rather die than give up what they have, even if that means putting millions into abject poverty to preserve their own lifestyle. Sigh.....
Driller said:
Steffan in 2011 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2012 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2013 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2014 said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Steffan in 2015 just said:
The crunch is coming and I think many observer's now are aware that the crunch is coming. It's going to be a very interesting year,
Happy new year Steffan Even if the economy turns around, all we'll do is just be shovelling along a huge amount of new debt and old debt, ready for the next over-shoot in growth and speculation to catch us out.
Until they system changes, we'll be increasingly slaves to this problem in an increasingly finite world.
Dave
Mermaid said:
that is right on the money,thanks for the link.Here we go for 2015....
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
- Queen, flag, country, empire, sterling - GOOD!!
- Republics, foreigners, continent, euro - BAD!!
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
Claudia Skies said:
Here we go for 2015....
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
Can you expand upon economic suicide?- Queen, flag, country, empire, sterling - GOOD!!
- Republics, foreigners, continent, euro - BAD!!
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
Mermaid, glad to see I'm not the only one subscribed to McWilliams
fblm said:
Claudia Skies said:
Here we go for 2015....
The prospect of an unholy alliance between Millipede and Nicola Sturgeon will do for sterling, at least for the first half of the year. IMO.- Queen, flag, country, empire, sterling - GOOD!!
- Republics, foreigners, continent, euro - BAD!!
Claudia Skies said:
Art0ir said:
Can you expand upon economic suicide?
1. We've decided to write off all our debts and will not be repaying lenders.2. Please can we borrow some money?
Comprende?
Every cent that goes to Greece is dead money. There is no light at the end of the tunnel, even with bailout after bailout. Every cent used to prop up the current mess is one less that will be used on infrastructure, investment, etc.
They should default, the lenders get burnt for being stupid and the country can rebuild with a currency suitable for it. That's how capitalism works. Markets only care about opportunity tomorrow, not what happened yesterday. Right now there is little opportunity in Greece's future.
To bring it back to Ireland, the markets severely punished Ireland when they decided to stand over bondholder payments instead of defaulting and burning them.
You among many other fail to see the bigger picture.
Edited by Art0ir on Monday 5th January 21:51
Art0ir said:
You among many other fail to see the bigger picture.
Dictionary: Arrogant - adjective 1. making claims or pretensions to superior importance or rights; overbearingly assuming; insolently proud:
"an arrogant public official."
2. characterized by or proceeding from arrogance, or a sense of superiority, self-importance, or entitlement:
"arrogant claims."
Claudia Skies said:
Art0ir said:
You among many other fail to see the bigger picture.
Dictionary: Arrogant - adjective 1. making claims or pretensions to superior importance or rights; overbearingly assuming; insolently proud:
"an arrogant public official."
2. characterized by or proceeding from arrogance, or a sense of superiority, self-importance, or entitlement:
"arrogant claims."
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