Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[YankeePorker]

Andy Zarse said:

Even ignoring the tortured birth of this bdized currency, if you were Italy why the juddering buggery would you ever want to tie your currency to the DM? You simply destroy your home industry and give the Germans a huge advantage of a fixed exchange rate. It's utterly insane.

Agreed, though I always looked at it the other way! Why the hell would other Eurozone economies have ever thought that it was a good idea to tie their economies to that of Italy, given that the latter were known to be incompetent tax collectors that managed their economy by periodic devaluations every time the price of a coffee approached a million Lira!

But in retrospect, for the Germans it's been a fun ride having their currency kept competitive, hobbled by the donkeys - if they can get out before paying the bill that is currently amassing then they will be laughing.

[Steffan]

RYH64E said:

Andy Zarse said:

These banks should have been toast in my opinion but that's another story.

That I do agree with. It's a two way street, Greece shouldn't have tried to borrow as much as they did and they shouldn't have been lent as much as they were (neither of which is a result of using the euro imo). Let them default, that's what usually happens when a company, individual or country is bust.

That is entirely my view. If Greece had been found a more realistic option at the startif this nonsense, then I do think that the markets could have come to terms with the hit and the Euro could have soldiered on. However I think the apparent difficulties with Spain, Portugal, Italy and all the other insolvent Sovereign states within the Euro caused the EU leaders to become concerned that ifvone state went a lot more could follow. Fundamentally miscncieved policy IMO that has actually ensured that the whole mess has got steadily much worse, much bigger abd a whole lot more substantial as more and more and mre unsecured debt as been piled upon these failing states. This money s ntbcoming back because tese states can never reay these debts. Simple economic facts.

The crunch therefre will come whatever the EU now tries to do. Thy ay well be seeking possible avenues to rationalise the debts of these hopelessly insolvent nations but that has now become titally impossible because of both the size of the debts and the fact that none of the solvent states within the Euro will accept any liability for the writing off of these unsupportable debts. Rock and a hard place for the iEU one way or another.

This must end now with the insolvent states quitting the Euro. There is no fairy godmother or white knight, or saviour round the corner. Real worl economics. Draghi (whose intellect is exceptional) and his cohorts may keep this rolling for a while. But the reality is that since no state will accept any part of writing of the debt the crunch will come. Matter of time.

[Digga]

What is very sad is the fact that, at the outset of the Euro, had there been proper scrutiny and had some of these economies been told a.) they did not qualify and that b.) they would be given adequate window of opportunity to restructure and join at a later date, there would have been a once in a lifetime chance for real reform.

All the issues that were swept under the rug; dysfunctional and corrupt government (I know, pot kettle, but some are worse than ours!), tax evasion, black economy, debt, public spending, obstacles to enterprise and employment; all could have been tackled for the good of the nations, Europe and the citizens.

[Claudia Skies]

Andy Zarse said:

Absolutely!

Given that we appear to agree on several important issues, it is fair to assume you are a man of high intellect and insight

Well, let's not get too carried away....

Andy Zarse said:

if you were Italy why the juddering buggery would you ever want to tie your currency to the DM?

equally well, if you were in Germany why would you want to take on the debts of countries whose domestic politicians have embraced the insane idea that you can just go on spending other peoples money with impunity.

The underlying issue is that ClubMed has failed to deliver. With their own currencies they would be in just as much trouble. And if they exit the Euro they are still in the same trouble because they still have the same underlying issues. Quite simply, naff economies.

They think they can say, "We're fed up with austerity..." without adding the important second part of the sentence "...so please can we have some more money". Would you lend to them? I wouldn't. It's pure Gordon Brownenomics.

Which brings me back to my view that they need to stay in the Euro and sort themselves out. Whether that will be the outcome looks increasingly uncertain.

PS Leftwingers with no money usually start a riot, which isn't very attractive. So a haircut and stay in perhaps.

Edited by Claudia Skies on Friday 23 January 15:05

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

RYH64E said:

Convert said:

Euro currently trading down 1.89% against Sterling.

Are we seeing start it's slow slide to oblivion, or is it just finding a new level post CHF and QE?

GBP is down 13% against the USD since the summer and about 1.6% this week, what conclusion would you draw from that?

Exports got cheaper?

Not when your raw materials are priced in USD and many of your customers pay in EUR, which unfortunately is the case for my good self. One of the jobs I quoted out in the summer has just come through and the margins have taken a major hit.

[Andy Zarse]

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

RYH64E said:

Convert said:

Euro currently trading down 1.89% against Sterling.

Are we seeing start it's slow slide to oblivion, or is it just finding a new level post CHF and QE?

GBP is down 13% against the USD since the summer and about 1.6% this week, what conclusion would you draw from that?

Exports got cheaper?

Not when your raw materials are priced in USD and many of your customers pay in EUR, which unfortunately is the case for my good self. One of the jobs I quoted out in the summer has just come through and the margins have taken a major hit.

If I was you I'd concentrate future sales efforts outside the Eurozone

[Walford]

This is all very distracting from the EU,s drive for expansion, I had heard that before all this sh/t kicked off about there being no money left, that Barbados had been asked if it would like to follow Cyprus and Malta into this dreamland, just as some of the smaller Dutch Caribbean islands had done

[turbobloke]

Andy Zarse said:

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

RYH64E said:

Convert said:

Euro currently trading down 1.89% against Sterling.

Are we seeing start it's slow slide to oblivion, or is it just finding a new level post CHF and QE?

GBP is down 13% against the USD since the summer and about 1.6% this week, what conclusion would you draw from that?

Exports got cheaper?

Not when your raw materials are priced in USD and many of your customers pay in EUR, which unfortunately is the case for my good self. One of the jobs I quoted out in the summer has just come through and the margins have taken a major hit.

If I was you I'd concentrate future sales efforts outside the Eurozone

[RYH64E]

Andy Zarse said:

If I was you I'd concentrate future sales efforts outside the Eurozone

I'm actually planning on buying more from the Eurozone, taking advantage of their weak currency and free movement of goods... and the fact that I have a euro bank account with a shed load of rapidly depreciating cash.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

Andy Zarse said:

If I was you I'd concentrate future sales efforts outside the Eurozone

I'm actually planning on buying more from the Eurozone, taking advantage of their weak currency and free movement of goods... and the fact that I have a euro bank account with a shed load of rapidly depreciating cash.

And then consider concentrating future sales efforts outside the Eurozone? I know, we've been there before...

[longblackcoat]

Andy Zarse said:

longblackcoat said:

Just to bring some reality back to the thread, it's four and a half years (pretty much to the day) since this thread opened. Fair to say that the end is not nigh for the Euro. Still tricky, certainly, but it's clearly weathered the storm.

Until Greece gets the bullet in a week or two. At that point, the Euro ceases to become "irreversible" and you lose.

The fact that there have been bigger problems than this over the last five years leads me to believe that the Euro will continue with or without Greece. And that the andwer to the question "is the end nigh for the Euro?" will continue to be no.

It'll be interesting to watch, but I think the Germans and French have demonstrated just how much they want to keep this currency union together. Whether you think that's a good or a bad thing is a moot point, but I can't see them changing their stance now.

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

And then consider concentrating future sales efforts outside the Eurozone? I know, we've been there before...

Sell up and retire sounds like a better plan.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

And then consider concentrating future sales efforts outside the Eurozone? I know, we've been there before...

Sell up and retire sounds like a better plan.

Not a bad idea at all.

[Walford]

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

And then consider concentrating future sales efforts outside the Eurozone? I know, we've been there before...

Sell up and retire sounds like a better plan.

Greece or Portugal?

[anonymous-user]

RYH64E said:

I'm actually planning on buying more from the Eurozone

Me too

http://www.mobile.de/?lang=en

[Andy Zarse]

longblackcoat said:

Andy Zarse said:

longblackcoat said:

Just to bring some reality back to the thread, it's four and a half years (pretty much to the day) since this thread opened. Fair to say that the end is not nigh for the Euro. Still tricky, certainly, but it's clearly weathered the storm.

Until Greece gets the bullet in a week or two. At that point, the Euro ceases to become "irreversible" and you lose.

The fact that there have been bigger problems than this over the last five years leads me to believe that the Euro will continue with or without Greece. And that the andwer to the question "is the end nigh for the Euro?" will continue to be no.

It'll be interesting to watch, but I think the Germans and French have demonstrated just how much they want to keep this currency union together. Whether you think that's a good or a bad thing is a moot point, but I can't see them changing their stance now.

Interesting question as to whether politics will overtake other events. People will only accept servitude for so long before something snaps, even if that means making things worse before they get better. Voters everywhere are getting utterly hacked off with the old ways, and dinosaurs don't come any bigger than the silly old men running things from Brussels. If one in ten British people can flirt with voting Green then where do you think that leaves the old failed parties in the Eurozone?

There is an outside chance that Syriza will obtain an absolute majority of seats on sunday. If so, then the fun will really start on monday!

To return to your point, if or when there's just Germany, France, Holland, and maybe Belgium and Lux left, is that still "The Euro"? Moot point, but on balance I would say not, but it would be a pretty "hard" currency.

[Axionknight]

Walford said:

Greece or Portugal?

Ireland maybe?

[longblackcoat]

Andy Zarse said:

longblackcoat said:

Andy Zarse said:

longblackcoat said:

Just to bring some reality back to the thread, it's four and a half years (pretty much to the day) since this thread opened. Fair to say that the end is not nigh for the Euro. Still tricky, certainly, but it's clearly weathered the storm.

Until Greece gets the bullet in a week or two. At that point, the Euro ceases to become "irreversible" and you lose.

The fact that there have been bigger problems than this over the last five years leads me to believe that the Euro will continue with or without Greece. And that the andwer to the question "is the end nigh for the Euro?" will continue to be no.

It'll be interesting to watch, but I think the Germans and French have demonstrated just how much they want to keep this currency union together. Whether you think that's a good or a bad thing is a moot point, but I can't see them changing their stance now.

Interesting question as to whether politics will overtake other events. People will only accept servitude for so long before something snaps, even if that means making things worse before they get better. Voters everywhere are getting utterly hacked off with the old ways, and dinosaurs don't come any bigger than the silly old men running things from Brussels. If one in ten British people can flirt with voting Green then where do you think that leaves the old failed parties in the Eurozone?

There is an outside chance that Syriza will obtain an absolute majority of seats on sunday. If so, then the fun will really start on monday!

To return to your point, if or when there's just Germany, France, Holland, and maybe Belgium and Lux left, is that still "The Euro"? Moot point, but on balance I would say not, but it would be a pretty "hard" currency.

Hard to argue with your comments, but bear in mind that Syriza have stated that there'd be no need for their anti-austerity programmes to necessarily lead to a Euro exit. And I'm prety sure the Germans and French will bend over backwards to keep their Greek friends in the fold.

[Claudia Skies]

Andy Zarse said:

Interesting question as to whether politics will overtake other events. People will only accept servitude for so long before something snaps,

Good grief; again we agree!

[Andy Zarse]

Claudia Skies said:

Andy Zarse said:

Interesting question as to whether politics will overtake other events. People will only accept servitude for so long before something snaps,

Good grief; again we agree!

Which one of us is drunk?