Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
wc98 said:
the question i have is, is it the case that the people of europe now have the leaders they deserve ? are these people a reflection of european society as a whole ? i find it hard to believe this situation has evolved without the 500 or so million people of the eu being complicit in some form.
That may arise when politicians occupy roles that are fought and won by election across the EU, with voters having the say, otherwise when politicians choose other politicians for powerful unelected roles we are in effect given a series of inadequate individuals as a fait accompli. Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
turbobloke said:
Walford said:
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Indeed.
Earlier I spoke of an asset grab, clearly not all assets can be spirited away and Syriza may regard those that remain as fair game. How it would work in practice is another matter.
There is a very real risk that many Greeks could follow their cash, effectively taxed into exile, gambling that it's better to start their lives again in a better economy.Earlier I spoke of an asset grab, clearly not all assets can be spirited away and Syriza may regard those that remain as fair game. How it would work in practice is another matter.
London estate agents were hiring French speakers after Hollande was elected and started being a silly socialist - were just as many Greek speakers hired after Greece went titsup, can't remember reading anything on that.
Cheib said:
turbobloke said:
Walford said:
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Indeed.
Earlier I spoke of an asset grab, clearly not all assets can be spirited away and Syriza may regard those that remain as fair game. How it would work in practice is another matter.
There is a very real risk that many Greeks could follow their cash, effectively taxed into exile, gambling that it's better to start their lives again in a better economy.Earlier I spoke of an asset grab, clearly not all assets can be spirited away and Syriza may regard those that remain as fair game. How it would work in practice is another matter.
London estate agents were hiring French speakers after Hollande was elected and started being a silly socialist - were just as many Greek speakers hired after Greece went titsup, can't remember reading anything on that.
turbobloke said:
Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
What? You're blaming others for the mess in Greece? That shows a complete failure to understand the position.The Greeks have proved time and again that their elected representatives are incapable of running the country.
This "vote against austerity" is as pointless as a debtor in UK "voting against the money I've borrowed and spent". What's needed is systemic change - and that's what the EU has been trying to bring about.
Claudia Skies said:
turbobloke said:
Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
What? You're blaming others for the mess in Greece? That shows a complete failure to understand the position.The Greeks have proved time and again that their elected representatives are incapable of running the country.
This "vote against austerity" is as pointless as a debtor in UK "voting against the money I've borrowed and spent". What's needed is systemic change - and that's what the EU has been trying to bring about.
Claudia Skies said:
turbobloke said:
Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
What? You're blaming others for the mess in Greece? That shows a complete failure to understand the position.The Greeks have proved time and again that their elected representatives are incapable of running the country.
This "vote against austerity" is as pointless as a debtor in UK "voting against the money I've borrowed and spent". What's needed is systemic change - and that's what the EU has been trying to bring about.
Default is the same as a bankrupt declaring insolvency, doing his twelve months purdah and starting again. So do you agree Greece's debts are totally unrepayable? If not why not?
You can wave your hair shirt all you like but you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
Do you not agree the Calvinist scorched earth economic policies imposed on Greece by the Troika have been a large part of the failure of Greece to respond to its medicine?
i look forward to your answers to these questions.
Meanwhile the problem with Syriza is they've promised crazy socialist goodies which they cant afford. It is a great shame, theyve diagnosed the problem correctly, prescibed a default and yet like an alcoholic want to go straight back out on the piss...
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 26th January 20:26
Andy Zarse said:
Default is the same as a bankrupt declaring insolvency, doing his twelve months purdah and starting again. So do you agree Greece's debts are totally unrepayable? If not why not?
You can wave your hair shirt all you like but you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
Do you not agree the Calvinist scorched earth economic policies imposed on Greece by the Troika have been a large part of the failure of Greece to respond to its medicine?
i look forward to your answers to these questions.
Meanwhile the problem with Syriza is they've promised crazy socialist goodies which they cant afford. It is a great shame, theyve diagnosed the problem correctly, prescibed a default and yet like an alcoholic want to go straight back out on the piss...
Very well put indeed... But I suspect in the term of this new government .....- what ever is coming out of the stone will be a tad less but with a deal on going for a few bolders to pacify the whole..You can wave your hair shirt all you like but you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
Do you not agree the Calvinist scorched earth economic policies imposed on Greece by the Troika have been a large part of the failure of Greece to respond to its medicine?
i look forward to your answers to these questions.
Meanwhile the problem with Syriza is they've promised crazy socialist goodies which they cant afford. It is a great shame, theyve diagnosed the problem correctly, prescibed a default and yet like an alcoholic want to go straight back out on the piss...
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 26th January 20:26
It will run.......
Edited by craig7l on Monday 26th January 20:36
Andy Zarse said:
you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
The question remains, as it has been from the outset, one of politics and not economics.You argue that people will be willing to give more money to this "stone from which no blood can be obtained". That makes no sense IMO. In the absence of real structural reform it's simply sending good money after bad.
No doubt there will be some tinkering at the edges of Euro-loans but the real issues have been, and will remain, all about the Greeks getting themselves organised.
turbobloke said:
That may arise when politicians occupy roles that are fought and won by election across the EU, with voters having the say, otherwise when politicians choose other politicians for powerful unelected roles we are in effect given a series of inadequate individuals as a fait accompli.
Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
that is what i hope the situation is ,if so there is the possibility of it being corrected. the thought that the people of europe are actually happy with the current situation and seek further mismanagement by the bureaucrats in charge is one i would not like to contemplate.Also the EU has a habit of sending in technocrats who are unelected, and repeating votes that go the 'wrong' way. There are people in key roles who call the shots making their own rules then breaking their own rules. As a result I think that the people of Europe are badly let down by the calibre of political 'representation' they have to tolerate.
Claudia Skies said:
Andy Zarse said:
you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
The question remains, as it has been from the outset, one of politics and not economics.You argue that people will be willing to give more money to this "stone from which no blood can be obtained". That makes no sense IMO. In the absence of real structural reform it's simply sending good money after bad.
No doubt there will be some tinkering at the edges of Euro-loans but the real issues have been, and will remain, all about the Greeks getting themselves organised.
If it had just been Greece, then perhaps. Greece is the worst affected country because it's the worst, but aside from the PIIGS nearly every country within the Eurozone has been screwed over by it to a greater or lesser extent.
And why? Because Germany doesn't want to take joint responsibility for their economies, despite reaping the benefits of their low productivity over the last 15 years as they have exported merrily whilst not seeing their currency strengthening to make them less competitive.
In my view, there are two stable ways to go. More Europe - full fiscal union of the Eurozone, one central bank and shared liabilities. That puts all eurozone members on the road to a federal union and gives a potential two-speed Europe.
The other is less Europe. Admit that the grand plan can't work, loosen the ties and let the basket case economies float free. Counties that are more closely economically aligned are welcome to a currency union but it should be on an entirely economic basis.
The EU is attempting to go between the two - fighting to keep the Euro together but not taking the steps towards a fiscal union that are needed for success.
davepoth said:
In my view, there are two stable ways to go. More Europe - full fiscal union of the Eurozone, one central bank and shared liabilities. That puts all eurozone members on the road to a federal union and gives a potential two-speed Europe.
The other is less Europe. Admit that the grand plan can't work, loosen the ties and let the basket case economies float free. Counties that are more closely economically aligned are welcome to a currency union but it should be on an entirely economic basis.
The EU is attempting to go between the two - fighting to keep the Euro together but not taking the steps towards a fiscal union that are needed for success.
The only two options in my view and I think the second is the one that will be forced upon them eventually.The other is less Europe. Admit that the grand plan can't work, loosen the ties and let the basket case economies float free. Counties that are more closely economically aligned are welcome to a currency union but it should be on an entirely economic basis.
The EU is attempting to go between the two - fighting to keep the Euro together but not taking the steps towards a fiscal union that are needed for success.
davepoth said:
Sorry, but you're wrong.
He's not wrong about the Greek system being politically and morally bankrupt - long before they joined the Euro - and this major issue is, in fact, highlighted by the incoming finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.See video here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-25/greeces-n...
davepoth said:
Because Germany doesn't want to take joint responsibility for their economies...
Well there's a surprise!You forget that Germany was successful before the euro, has been successful with the euro, and would no doubt continue to be successful if the euro ceased to be. Greece on the other hand peaked around about the 4th century BC and has been on the decline ever since...
RYH64E said:
Well there's a surprise!
You forget that Germany was successful before the euro, has been successful with the euro, and would no doubt continue to be successful if the euro ceased to be. Greece on the other hand peaked around about the 4th century BC and has been on the decline ever since...
Over the last fifteen years where do you think the DM would have been (I mean generally, not specifically) compared to where the Euro actually was and is now? Weaker? Or more like the Swiss Franc? You forget that Germany was successful before the euro, has been successful with the euro, and would no doubt continue to be successful if the euro ceased to be. Greece on the other hand peaked around about the 4th century BC and has been on the decline ever since...
Germany has basically had a massive structural advantage over its fellow Euro member states (more fool them) by fixing the exchange rate in an internal market. Totally insane for the others to have let them and now they're paying the price with their destroyed industries and smashed economies. It is only fair that Germany now picks up its share of the tab.
The Euro is effectively the Gold Standard all over again, essentially a vanity project into which many many politicians have basically staked their entire careers and credibility.
It was consider a political catastophe in the UK both when the UK left the Gold Standard, and when we pulled out of the ERM (a similar vanity project)
Yet both events heralded the start of economic growth, at scale.
Greece is tied to the unworkable Euro, the actions of its citizens are HARDLY SURPRISING given what happened in Cyprus, which is one reason many on here were dead against the theft. Net Net, Greeks have pushed 54bn Euro offshore since November. The capital flight is ridiculous, and it is undermining Syriza's negotiating position.
How can then threaten Europe, when back home the only thing keeping the four Greek banks together is emergency funding from the ECB.
Unless Alex, can secure a gigahuge loan from friends in Asia or Russia, then I can only see default on the horizon.
Weird that the Greek people themselves, have voted for change, but have simultaneously all taken action to protect themselves privately from the effects of that change.
And finally, in all the discussion about bond prices, haircuts, capital flight etc. Lets just remember the human cost of this grand folly. Prostitution in Greece has risen to record levels, with an average price of just 11 euros for sex... It is a disgrace that in Western Europe, the grand politics of the late 90's and 2000's have led to this situation.
davepoth said:
Claudia Skies said:
Andy Zarse said:
you cannot, unless you can convince the rest of us otherwise, get blood out of a stone.
The question remains, as it has been from the outset, one of politics and not economics.You argue that people will be willing to give more money to this "stone from which no blood can be obtained". That makes no sense IMO. In the absence of real structural reform it's simply sending good money after bad.
No doubt there will be some tinkering at the edges of Euro-loans but the real issues have been, and will remain, all about the Greeks getting themselves organised.
I put it to Claudia, she will not be able to show any calculations or projections to demonstrate it is even theoretically possible, unless he is able to invent a time machine.
The Troika put all sorts of fancy graphs and bold assertions of future sunlit Greek uplands in their marvellous 2011 bailout document. They happily declared:
"the debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining path from 2013... but from 2012 onward, confidence effects, regained market access, and comprehensive structural reforms are expected to lead to a growth recovery. Unemployment is projected to peak at nearly 15 percent by 2012.
These political projections have all, without any exceptions, turned to dust.
So you have to take Clauia's comments on this with a pinch of salt. Simply saying politics trumps economics does not make it true. I think the election of Syriza amply demonstrates that failed economic policy simply leads to political parties with a different economic view. The Greek economic tail is very firmly wagging his political dog!
Gargamel said:
And finally, in all the discussion about bond prices, haircuts, capital flight etc. Lets just remember the human cost of this grand folly. Prostitution in Greece has risen to record levels, with an average price of just 11 euros for sex... It is a disgrace that in Western Europe, the grand politics of the late 90's and 2000's have led to this situation.
So that's something else where the Germans have developed a larger industrial scale operation that dominates the markets. Apparently it has been a very strong growth area.
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