Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Walford said:
fido said:
RYH64E said:
With obvious consequences for UK manufacturers should we find ourselves on the outside of said huge market.
False comparison. We are not in the Euro - thank goodness for that.
Am i missing something, I thought China, India, Brasil and The USofA were huge markets not Portugal and Estonia
It's also a false threat, do you really think for a split second that the EU core economies would want to lock themselves out of what is a huge export market for them ( the UK ) by closing export relations with us?

Claudia Skies

1,098 posts

115 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
It's also a false threat, do you really think for a split second that the EU core economies would want to lock themselves out of what is a huge export market for them ( the UK ) by closing export relations with us?
The "they can't afford to lose us" argument is nonsense.

Question: "Can UK afford to lose their financial services business?". If you've seen today's GDP figures you'll know that it's just about the sole driver of UK economy these days.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Claudia Skies said:
Timmy40 said:
It's also a false threat, do you really think for a split second that the EU core economies would want to lock themselves out of what is a huge export market for them ( the UK ) by closing export relations with us?
The "they can't afford to lose us" argument is nonsense.

Question: "Can UK afford to lose their financial services business?". If you've seen today's GDP figures you'll know that it's just about the sole driver of UK economy these days.
Their businesses are heavily in vested in UK in many areas.

If they pull out the Chinese will move in. Would that be OK with them?

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
arguti said:
fido said:
Yes the Greeks need to buy cars from someone - but I'm thinking perhaps Nissan Micras, Ford Fiestas and some cheapo French rubbish is more suited to their income level. The last time I visited Greece (mid-naughties) I was surprised by the number of high end BMWs around the place - more than the poverty stricken part of SW London where I reside.
Remember this article smile

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100...
It would appear that the article may well have had little confirmatory research applied to it. See the link in the comment at the top of the comments section.

Or just click here.

http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/6881/a...



Sad, it was a nice concept ...



Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Claudia Skies said:
Timmy40 said:
It's also a false threat, do you really think for a split second that the EU core economies would want to lock themselves out of what is a huge export market for them ( the UK ) by closing export relations with us?
The "they can't afford to lose us" argument is nonsense.

Question: "Can UK afford to lose their financial services business?". If you've seen today's GDP figures you'll know that it's just about the sole driver of UK economy these days.
1) it's a global business, are you actually suggesting EU economies would choose to lock themselves out of the financial markets by refusing to pass transactions through London? Yeah right.

2) Actually it's far more balanced across the UK than people think. Of late manufacturing has done rather well.


Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
1) it's a global business, are you actually suggesting EU economies would choose to lock themselves out of the financial markets by refusing to pass transactions through London? Yeah right.
There'll be a huge push to make Frankfurt the new London imo.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Walford said:
Amazing what the manufacturers can offer on Motability these days ....

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Walford said:
Amazing what the manufacturers can offer on Motability these days ....
I say! Top shagwagon!

Camoradi

4,285 posts

255 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Germany are not the good guys in this mess. Their manufacturing industry has done rather nicely out of the Greek debt crisis.

Greek military spending as a percentage of GDP has been higher than Germany, France or the UK in the last four years..

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD...

Some of the kit wasn't quite as good as they expected though...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10895239...

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Timmy40 said:
1) it's a global business, are you actually suggesting EU economies would choose to lock themselves out of the financial markets by refusing to pass transactions through London? Yeah right.
There'll be a huge push to make Frankfurt the new London imo.
LOL, they've been desperately trying to do that for the past 20 years and during that time Frankfurts position has if anything declined. Do you think the French and Germans have just sat there happily letting London dominate over Paris and Frankfurt? When I started in the City in 1995 there was still serious talk of those two as rivals ( even challengers ) to Londons position. No one seriosuly thinks that anymore.

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Timmy40 said:
1) it's a global business, are you actually suggesting EU economies would choose to lock themselves out of the financial markets by refusing to pass transactions through London? Yeah right.
There'll be a huge push to make Frankfurt the new London imo.
Its been tried before, but still London keeps going, its not due to fact its in Europe, we do not use the Euro, so it can't be that, so the reason it keeps going is nothing to do with Europe, it was a financial centre way before Europe existed and will be long after its gone.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
LOL, they've been desperately trying to do that for the past 20 years and during that time Frankfurts position has if anything declined. Do you think the French and Germans have just sat there happily letting London dominate over Paris and Frankfurt? When I started in the City in 1995 there was still serious talk of those two as rivals ( even challengers ) to Londons position. No one seriosuly thinks that anymore.
Some still take it seriously, Cohn at Goldman Sachs for one. The EU is notoriously protective, I can think of no good reason why they wouldn't take the necessary steps to encourage global financial institutions to base their European headquarters in the EU rather than on a small island just off the coast of Europe.

Axionknight

8,505 posts

134 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Aye with all their talk of financial transaction taxes folk will be queueing up to do business.

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
Axionknight said:
Aye with all their talk of financial transaction taxes folk will be queueing up to do business.
The people who are desperate to stay in should pay the bill, then I would have no problem with it, but its the exact opposite, my brother has a small business, I am surprised how little tax he pays (legally ) perhaps we should ask them if they want to stay in and are they ready for the bill.

Mrr T

12,152 posts

264 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Timmy40 said:
LOL, they've been desperately trying to do that for the past 20 years and during that time Frankfurts position has if anything declined. Do you think the French and Germans have just sat there happily letting London dominate over Paris and Frankfurt? When I started in the City in 1995 there was still serious talk of those two as rivals ( even challengers ) to Londons position. No one seriosuly thinks that anymore.
Some still take it seriously, Cohn at Goldman Sachs for one. The EU is notoriously protective, I can think of no good reason why they wouldn't take the necessary steps to encourage global financial institutions to base their European headquarters in the EU rather than on a small island just off the coast of Europe.
All financial institutions operating within the EU/EEA/EFTA must be regulated by an EU/EEA/EFTA country.

So is we leave the EU without remaining in the EEA or joining EFTA all UK financial institutions would need to set up new European headquarters within the EU/EEA/EFTA.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
The people who are desperate to stay in should pay the bill, then I would have no problem with it, but its the exact opposite, my brother has a small business, I am surprised how little tax he pays (legally ) perhaps we should ask them if they want to stay in and are they ready for the bill.
I run a small business and pay shed loads of tax, if there's a way to avoid it legally then nobody's let me in on the secret. It could be argued that my tax bill should be higher than it is as I avoid what I can, but the combined total of Corporation Tax/Business Rates/Employers NI/personal PAYE & NI etc adds up to more than £200k per year, so I feel comfortable that I'm paying my share of the costs of EU membership.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
PRTVR said:
The people who are desperate to stay in should pay the bill, then I would have no problem with it, but its the exact opposite, my brother has a small business, I am surprised how little tax he pays (legally ) perhaps we should ask them if they want to stay in and are they ready for the bill.
I run a small business and pay shed loads of tax, if there's a way to avoid it legally then nobody's let me in on the secret. It could be argued that my tax bill should be higher than it is as I avoid what I can, but the combined total of Corporation Tax/Business Rates/Employers NI/personal PAYE & NI etc adds up to more than £200k per year, so I feel comfortable that I'm paying my share of the costs of EU membership.
On a wider basis the total costs are too high and the overall benefits - well, what overall benefits.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

197 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Timmy40 said:
LOL, they've been desperately trying to do that for the past 20 years and during that time Frankfurts position has if anything declined. Do you think the French and Germans have just sat there happily letting London dominate over Paris and Frankfurt? When I started in the City in 1995 there was still serious talk of those two as rivals ( even challengers ) to Londons position. No one seriosuly thinks that anymore.
Some still take it seriously, Cohn at Goldman Sachs for one. The EU is notoriously protective, I can think of no good reason why they wouldn't take the necessary steps to encourage global financial institutions to base their European headquarters in the EU rather than on a small island just off the coast of Europe.
And the reason you think they haven't tried and failed to do that for the past 2 decades without success is?

Small Island? It's a small Island with a comprable GDP to both France and Germany, neither of which I think would describe themselves as small or insiginificant.

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Tuesday 27th January 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Some still take it seriously, Cohn at Goldman Sachs for one.
When you're extracting rent from the disciples of Harvard-Keynsianism, it makes sense to utter the odd platitude.