Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
richardxjr said:
Is it correct what Newsnight reported that Greece would run a budget surplus were it not for the pesky interest?
It's the principal repayments which are the problem - about 3bn Euros a month. Personally I can't see that it's in the ECB's interest to allow a bank run in Greece so if I were in the unenviable position of the current government - I would perform an orderly default on the debt (carry on paying interest but no principal repayment unless the ECB agree to writedown a substantial portion). Either the ECB play along or Grexit.Edited by fido on Wednesday 28th January 13:29
ajcj said:
...I predict a bodge - some kind of formula whereby Greece remains indebted and their loans can stay on the balance sheet, but they don't have to pay anything back before their economy shows signs of revival, perhaps a GDP growth figure...
This saves face on both sides, all concerned can claim a victory to their public, the can is kicked down the road again, and we wait for the next crisis....
You may well be correct. This saves face on both sides, all concerned can claim a victory to their public, the can is kicked down the road again, and we wait for the next crisis....
My own opinion is that Germany wants Greece out simply to show the other indebted countries, especially Spain, what happens when you vote in anti-austerity defaulting parties. Greece will be thrown to the wolves, and it will be a massive train crash with hideous immediate short term consequences. The danger for the EU lies in the medium term; what happens when the drachma eventually stabilises, we get really cheap holidays for a year or two and Greece manages to get some growth when the economy starts to come back...
The EU are not worried about Greece failing, but they'll do all they can to stop it being a success.
Well it is all unraveling rather quickly, events on the ground are moving far quicker than the negotiating timetable. Markets are reacting
Greek Debt is no trading at over 10%
The four big banks are in an absolute tail slide, both liquidity and share price
Stock market is falling
Syriza have blocked the sale of state assets including the Port at Patras to the Chinese (a massive FDI) and the state power company
The rhetoric is that they will restore pension and re employ former public sector workers. Who will pay for these principles ?
Gargamel said:
Well it is all unraveling rather quickly, events on the ground are moving far quicker than the negotiating timetable. Markets are reacting
Greek Debt is no trading at over 10%
The four big banks are in an absolute tail slide, both liquidity and share price
Stock market is falling
Syriza have blocked the sale of state assets including the Port at Patras to the Chinese (a massive FDI) and the state power company
The rhetoric is that they will restore pension and re employ former public sector workers. Who will pay for these principles ?
Jesus, they are not fGreek Debt is no trading at over 10%
The four big banks are in an absolute tail slide, both liquidity and share price
Stock market is falling
Syriza have blocked the sale of state assets including the Port at Patras to the Chinese (a massive FDI) and the state power company
The rhetoric is that they will restore pension and re employ former public sector workers. Who will pay for these principles ?
king about are they. If they follow through on these threats they are effectively tearing up the bailout agreements without even the courtesy of bothering to feign a negotiation. They will be doing this unilaterally and without any agreement from the Troika.Tsipras might as well have quoted Neville Chamberlain;
"I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany".
Things will move pretty quickly from here IMO.
I don't get blocking the port deal, that was a decent investment, guaranteed some jobs and would have massively improved infrastucture.
To have a European Hub dockyard for a major shipping line is NOT to be sniffed out. The rest I am a bit Meh about, but where is the sense in blocking that.
Kills all potential FDI stone dead. Barking madness.
Andy Zarse said:
The EU are not worried about Greece failing, but they'll do all they can to stop it being a success.
this is the most interesting aspect to me. the eu bureaucrats must be stting themselves in case the greek tragedy turns into a success story a few years down the line .wc98 said:
this is the most interesting aspect to me. the eu bureaucrats must be stting themselves in case the greek tragedy turns into a success story a few years down the line .
I will purposefully have my holiday in Greece this summer if they do return to the drachma, I think we all should, give two fingers to the EU ftting themselves in case the greek tragedy turns into a success story a few years down the line .kers. Steffan said:
Entirely my view. I still recommend that UK graduates emigrate abroad, when asked which I am from time to time, to Canada. New Zealand, Australia or America in that order. Years ago a really delightful old Chartered Accountant who was an archetypal Jewsh family man, taught me a great deal about the reality of running a business when I was a lowly articled Clerk. To this day I remember the lessons!
One of his most frequent epithets was 'Get on a fast moving train to be successful in business' you can be a mere passenger and still beat the rest.' I think taking a serious view of where best to live and where life is more likely to be secure and enjoyable is the duty of every individual as they quality in their field.. Opportunities and untapped natural resources in Canada are still at the stage that these were in the UK 100 years ago. In the UK now we are an ageing society with falling resources.
I would not attempt to continue to live in Greece if i was living there and qualified because I think life there is going to become very very difficult. The same must be true of the other failing states. None of this is going to end well for anyone in the affected countries. Use your education to its best advantage is my fervant advice. Do not stay in countres that have ruined themselves with daft Socialist spending. Which is exactly what Greece has done. No easy fixes. I do not see much of a life there nowadays. For many many years.
Excellent advice Steffan!One of his most frequent epithets was 'Get on a fast moving train to be successful in business' you can be a mere passenger and still beat the rest.' I think taking a serious view of where best to live and where life is more likely to be secure and enjoyable is the duty of every individual as they quality in their field.. Opportunities and untapped natural resources in Canada are still at the stage that these were in the UK 100 years ago. In the UK now we are an ageing society with falling resources.
I would not attempt to continue to live in Greece if i was living there and qualified because I think life there is going to become very very difficult. The same must be true of the other failing states. None of this is going to end well for anyone in the affected countries. Use your education to its best advantage is my fervant advice. Do not stay in countres that have ruined themselves with daft Socialist spending. Which is exactly what Greece has done. No easy fixes. I do not see much of a life there nowadays. For many many years.
wc98 said:
Andy Zarse said:
The EU are not worried about Greece failing, but they'll do all they can to stop it being a success.
this is the most interesting aspect to me. the eu bureaucrats must be stting themselves in case the greek tragedy turns into a success story a few years down the line .
Anyone else wondering how Italy can afford a loss of Eu48BN!
The only cure to a country unable to repay a given level of debt (actually increasing) is insolvency and liquidation of assets to her creditors,this will not happen with Greek debt its a given that they cannot repay at current debt levels,they have been asset stripped and some,so to be blunt its now a case for morals.My view is a referendum like Iceland then Drachma2,the rest of the PIGS are watching so interesting times ahead.
Mrr T said:
Greece would then be in breach of the treaty establishing the €.
Slightly off the Greece topic but does anyone know if Cyprus still has capital control in place?Read previously on another forum that this could be a maximum of six months in the eu-is that correct?
http://www.linklaters.com/pdfs/mkt/london/Eurozone...
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911Gary said:
Steffan said:
Entirely my view. I still recommend that UK graduates emigrate abroad, when asked which I am from time to time, to Canada. New Zealand, Australia or America in that order. Years ago a really delightful old Chartered Accountant who was an archetypal Jewsh family man, taught me a great deal about the reality of running a business when I was a lowly articled Clerk. To this day I remember the lessons!
One of his most frequent epithets was 'Get on a fast moving train to be successful in business' you can be a mere passenger and still beat the rest.' I think taking a serious view of where best to live and where life is more likely to be secure and enjoyable is the duty of every individual as they quality in their field.. Opportunities and untapped natural resources in Canada are still at the stage that these were in the UK 100 years ago. In the UK now we are an ageing society with falling resources.
I would not attempt to continue to live in Greece if i was living there and qualified because I think life there is going to become very very difficult. The same must be true of the other failing states. None of this is going to end well for anyone in the affected countries. Use your education to its best advantage is my fervant advice. Do not stay in countres that have ruined themselves with daft Socialist spending. Which is exactly what Greece has done. No easy fixes. I do not see much of a life there nowadays. For many many years.
Excellent advice Steffan!One of his most frequent epithets was 'Get on a fast moving train to be successful in business' you can be a mere passenger and still beat the rest.' I think taking a serious view of where best to live and where life is more likely to be secure and enjoyable is the duty of every individual as they quality in their field.. Opportunities and untapped natural resources in Canada are still at the stage that these were in the UK 100 years ago. In the UK now we are an ageing society with falling resources.
I would not attempt to continue to live in Greece if i was living there and qualified because I think life there is going to become very very difficult. The same must be true of the other failing states. None of this is going to end well for anyone in the affected countries. Use your education to its best advantage is my fervant advice. Do not stay in countres that have ruined themselves with daft Socialist spending. Which is exactly what Greece has done. No easy fixes. I do not see much of a life there nowadays. For many many years.
It is the experience over 40 years in Accountcy that makes me suggest that approach.
The most organised and efficient firm I ever audited went bust despite the sterling efforts of the workforce and the Herculean efforts of the Directors who bankrupted themselves in the process. The firm was making Nottingham lace and the Nottingham lace market collapsed. The firm continued making Nottingham lace and the firm went bust.
One Director left the firm imploring the others to join him. He set up making lace trimmings for women's underwear which the other Drectors considered too lowly as a product. He went on to make a real fortune and the firm is still trading supplying Marks and Spencer's, Corah's and other major PLC underwear makers. Janet Reager was another client.
I really do think setting up life in the most stable growing economy is the best chance for every businessman. Otherwise difficulties arise all too readily! Get in on a fast moving genuinely expanding economy must be the best way to ensure success.
turbobloke said:
As a sample size of one 
but nevertheless in agreement with your point, my niece's husband did exactly that several years ago. He's now in London - with the neice - and they've just bought their first house also in London so doing OK. He made the right move.
That's an interesting concept. but nevertheless in agreement with your point, my niece's husband did exactly that several years ago. He's now in London - with the neice - and they've just bought their first house also in London so doing OK. He made the right move.The people can just leave the country and its debts behind and move to somewhere with better opportunities. There are not so many of them in Greece as to make that at unfeasible, at least for those of an economically productive age group.
Then what would happen to whatever is left behind?
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