Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[YankeePorker]

Huntsman said:

According to new on Aunty this morning, Greece won't default. I can't see how.

Nuancing on the word "default" no doubt. If your creditors kindly agree to write off your debt or put off its reimbursement until the year 3000, then you can stop paying them without being in default.

The question is whether the EZ leaders are going to be willing to grease their citizens' ring pieces and bend them over. I reckons there will be a compromise where they do so, while promising that they'll only get 3" and a reach around instead of 6" and a fisting!

Either way, it won't go anywhere along the line to making Greece viable within the same currency as Germany, so just more can kicking.

[RYH64E]

Andy Zarse said:

They must also be shiiting themselves about having to explain to their own electors that the money they lent Greece has gone up in smoke. Here's a handy table showing who is owed what;

I'm still not sure how they managed to transfer the debt from the banks to the EU taxpayer without the electorate working out what was going on.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

turbobloke said:

As a sample size of one but nevertheless in agreement with your point, my niece's husband did exactly that several years ago. He's now in London - with the neice - and they've just bought their first house also in London so doing OK. He made the right move.

That's an interesting concept.

The people can just leave the country and its debts behind and move to somewhere with better opportunities. There are not so many of them in Greece as to make that at unfeasible, at least for those of an economically productive age group.

Then what would happen to whatever is left behind?

Indeed that is the problem. I think every individual has to look out for their own best interest. I intensely dislike the attitude and morality of Vulture funds and the like in business. I dislike that approach. However, giving yourself and therefore your family the best possible chance by relocating to an English speaking country with an expanding Economy and untapped natural wealth seems to me to be a fair and reasonable approach. Those who have had the ability and dedication to achieve qualifications that count in getting a decent job would do well to get into such a poition as early as possible. Better by far to Seek a Bright Star, to misquote John Pudney.

I regret to say that it does seem very very likely that the older economies of the world are becoming too populated by aged people and ruled by self interested politicians out for themselves. I am not saying the expanding countries are better per se. I am suggesting just that the generation of weath and therefore health and reasonable lifestyles are going to be much easier I really do think setting up in an expanding economy where the dream of success is still strong is a good way to progress.

How the countries not in ths position fare is really up to those who remin in those countries. From all I can see in the EU failing states not very well at all currently it would seem. That is why I suggest moving elswhere to anyone young enough and sufficiently qualified to gain employment in those countries.

[cayman-black]

Gargamel said:

Andy Zarse said:

Anyone else wondering how Italy can afford a loss of Eu48BN!

Come off it Andy we know the answer already. That number isn't even one month of Draghi QE.

Print it away...

Or its a personal loan from Berlusconi.

[LongQ]

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

[jogon]

LongQ said:

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

I'm not a fan of all inclusive is seems to attract the wrong sort and I like exploring and trying out the local bars and restaurants.

[LongQ]

jogon said:

LongQ said:

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

I'm not a fan of all inclusive is seems to attract the wrong sort and I like exploring and trying out the local bars and restaurants.

I agree but does that you think Alex and friends are doing the "proper" holiday makers a favour?

Or will they wait until the season is well booked and then add a large arrival and entry tax?

[Snoggledog]

LongQ said:

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

TBH I don't think that's such a bad idea. After all the majority of the 'all inclusive' holiday venues are owned by foreign companies who may not be adding that much to the economy. By breaking that link between hotel and punter there's a chance that people may venture outside of the resort and spend money locally.

[Digga]

If they monkey around with tourism, they are toast.

That is not to say that I don't think the hard-left are sufficiently deluded and removed from the realities of the free market that they will not try. I'm afraid Greece is not at home to logic.

I nearly fell out with my BIL in 2002 regarding the trajectory of the Greek involvement in the Euro. Now, despite all my concerns materialising, he still doesn't recognise the realities that just about everyone on here - pro or anti Euro - acknowledges.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

jogon said:

LongQ said:

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

I'm not a fan of all inclusive is seems to attract the wrong sort and I like exploring and trying out the local bars and restaurants.

I agree but does that you think Alex and friends are doing the "proper" holiday makers a favour?

Or will they wait until the season is well booked and then add a large arrival and entry tax?

Given the absolute lack of experience in the new government I think anticipating their moves is pretty difficult. Presumably the left wing ideology they purport to follow will be evidenced by new taxes in a good many directions. Getting more taxes seems to be the Socialist answer to everything. What this will actually cause to be created within Greece is anybody's guess.

I have been searching for some suggestion that an agreement of sorts could be achieved between the EU and this Greek government I found this in the Guardian. Not my normal newspaper diet. But as pretty pink and left wing As they are themselves could be the Guardian might just possibly be on to something. Then again Who knows?

See: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/26/gr...

[anonymous-user]

Rovinghawk said:

fblm said:

After 200 years rich states in the US still massively subsidise poor. Quite why anyone imagines the eurozone would ever have been any different after 20 is beyond me.

The US has a federal government- the European governments don't.

It also has cowboys, big V8's and they eat bacon with pancakes FFS, but we digress! It's a free trade area with free movement of people and a currency union held together by massive fiscal transfers between states. In the case of the US that is via direct federal taxation and spending, the EU/ECB has to be a little more subtle so's not to upset the natives but the net effect is the same.

[RYH64E]

jogon said:

I'm not a fan of all inclusive is seems to attract the wrong sort and I like exploring and trying out the local bars and restaurants.

It's handy when you've got kids, saves them pestering you for yet another 5 euro for yet another icecream, or drink, or snack, and when I was last in Cyprus it really was 5 euro for an icecream.

[maffski]

Snoggledog said:

LongQ said:

Is this or is this not sweating the assets?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2927991/Gr...


It appears that the new Greek Govt. wants to make all inclusive holidays in Greece much more expensive (allegedly).

If they do that will that reduce the income, increase the income, drive people out of the resorts into the wider economy and have no effect at all?

Or is this just a silly press release to add to the noise and disguise what they are really doing?

TBH I don't think that's such a bad idea. After all the majority of the 'all inclusive' holiday venues are owned by foreign companies who may not be adding that much to the economy. By breaking that link between hotel and punter there's a chance that people may venture outside of the resort and spend money locally.

Unless people are taking those holidays because all inclusive is what they want, so they go somewhere else and resorts have to lay staff off

[Steffan]

Lot of speculation in the media currently on the possible consequences of the Greek election and new government to the EU. Mark Carney, who has not impressed me peronally with his wit and charm, thus far, does have some observations on the structural difficulties with the Euro as a currency that do make interesting reading.

see: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31030425

Robert Peston also make some interesting points in the same article. I do like Robert Peston as a economist/commentator though I realise he is not everyone's cup of tea. It is very difficult to see how the EU and Greece are going to square the circle required for Greece to remain within the EU. However much the EU would like to resolve the problems of Greece, the attitude and statements by the new Greek government are seriously unsettling the financial markets in Europe. Greek bonds are not looking good investments at all. Money is flying out of Greek Banks by the shed load.

From everything I read on this matter, now, I just cannot see how the EU are going to manage this at all. With the rapid deterioration in the Greek position, post the latest election, it would seem to me that neither can the markets. Without favouring Greece and running serious risk of other failing states looking for the same favours I can see very little room for manoevre at all. Rock and a hard place I think.

[DJRC]

Back in Italy. Doesn't seem to be much concern here. It was headline news last week, dropped this week.

[Claudia Skies]

Steffan said:

Robert Peston also make some interesting points in the same article. I do like Robert Peston as a economist/commentator though I realise he is not everyone's cup of tea.

Darned right he's not. His former colleague Stephanie Flanders has him soundly beaten in every department. Which is presumably why he's still blowing his own trumpet at the BBC while she's got a big job with JP Morgan in the City.

She could probably flatten him in a fight as well!

[Steffan]

Claudia Skies said:

Steffan said:

Robert Peston also make some interesting points in the same article. I do like Robert Peston as a economist/commentator though I realise he is not everyone's cup of tea.

Darned right he's not. His former colleague Stephanie Flanders has him soundly beaten in every department. Which is presumably why he's still blowing his own trumpet at the BBC while she's got a big job with JP Morgan in the City.

She could probably flatten him in a fight as well!

Indeed Stephanie Flanders is quite a lady. The remarkable daughter of the remarkable Michael Flanders who achieved a very great deal as one half of the Flanders and Swann duo, despite being crippled with Polio as a Naval officer in WWii. She could very probably flatten most men. Fortunately I do not think she feels the needs to do so. Loss to the BBC gain to JP Morgan. I still like Robert Peston as an observer.

[Steffan]

DJRC said:

Back in Italy. Doesn't seem to be much concern here. It was headline news last week, dropped this week.

Evening DJRC, it is as you suggest all quiet here in Italy. The Greek position is getting interesting, I think. The fears in the markets are surely some evidence of concern that the Greeks may play a curved ball to the EU. All there to play for currently.? I do wonder what, if anything, the EU can do to in any way assist the tribulations of Greece. Or want to, given the attitude emanating from the Greek government. What now I wonder?

[Claudia Skies]

Steffan said:

Indeed Stephanie Flanders is quite a lady. The remarkable daughter of the remarkable Michael Flanders who achieved a very great deal as one half of the Flanders and Swann duo, despite being crippled with Polio as a Naval officer in WWii.

I had no idea! Thanks.

It was on the Sunday morning....

[Steffan]

Claudia Skies said:

Steffan said:

Indeed Stephanie Flanders is quite a lady. The remarkable daughter of the remarkable Michael Flanders who achieved a very great deal as one half of the Flanders and Swann duo, despite being crippled with Polio as a Naval officer in WWii.

I had no idea! Thanks.

It was on the Sunday morning....

The Gas Man came to call, Mud Mud Gloious Mud and so forth! I

believe that Sir George Martin was the recording manager on those records many years before the Beatles arrived.

Funny old world, is it not?