Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[turbobloke]

Steffan said:

Mermaid said:

RYH64E said:

Claudia Skies said:

I think there will be a further "package" for Greece and that it will come with significant strings attached. What those strings will be and how they will attached remains to be seen.

Unlike the last package, whose 'significant strings' they have just rejected? I suppose it will be different this time.

I am not convinced "business as usual" plasters bands will work with Greece. Major surgery or amputate, patient not fully compliant.

That is also my take on this now. If an accommodation is created by the EU the conditions in Greece are so dire that any agreement other than debt cancelling will be very short term indeed. The Greeks clearly do not want nor can they actually afford to be within the Euro, a currency that was always beyond their real economic position.

An article over at Bloomberg mentions a survey in which three-quarters of Greeks polled said they wanted to remain in the EZ, however the question(s) weren't given and there was no indication that the poll mentioned likely consequences. Wanting Greek salad days to return isn't the same as realising it. Also Tsipras has pledged to voters that Greece will remain in the currency union, yet the Syriza campaign promised to reverse austerity, unwind creditor-mandated reforms and restructure Greek debt on their terms, these positions are surely incompatible as the Bloomberg article indicates. As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think. It's a timely reminder to those who try to divert and distort the debate that the fundamental issues with the EU that many of us have are not in any way issues with people in countries struggling to cope with EZ membership who are doing the best they can for their families just as people in the UK are doing in coping with EU membership.

Edited by turbobloke on Sunday 1st February 13:28

[drdino]

Steffan said:

I do not think that is actually a practical plan. Unsurprising really since the new Greek government is ultra left wing we should expect no more. Socialist depend upon massive public over borrowing and overspending to grow their own personal wealth and status as demonstrated by Blair and Brown in their many years of UK economy destruction.

Syriza is not, as a whole, ultra left wing.

[fido]

LongQ said:

..

Germany could combine with Austria and become the German region and annex Belgium and Netherlands since they don't really seem to fit anywhere else.

..

Sounds eerily familiar.

[Steffan]

turbobloke said:

Steffan said:

Mermaid said:

RYH64E said:

Claudia Skies said:

I think there will be a further "package" for Greece and that it will come with significant strings attached. What those strings will be and how they will attached remains to be seen.

Unlike the last package, whose 'significant strings' they have just rejected? I suppose it will be different this time.

I am not convinced "business as usual" plasters bands will work with Greece. Major surgery or amputate, patient not fully compliant.

That is also my take on this now. If an accommodation is created by the EU the conditions in Greece are so dire that any agreement other than debt cancelling will be very short term indeed. The Greeks clearly do not want nor can they actually afford to be within the Euro, a currency that was always beyond their real economic position.

An article over at Bloomberg mentions a survey in which three-quarters of Greeks polled said they wanted to remain in the EZ, however the question(s) weren't given and there was no indication that the poll mentioned likely consequences. Wanting Greek salad days to return isn't the same as realising it. Also Tsipras has pledged to voters that Greece will remain in the currency union, yet the Syriza campaign promised to reverse austerity, unwind creditor-mandated reforms and restructure Greek debt on their terms, these positions are surely incompatible as the Bloomberg article indicates. As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think. It's a timely reminder to those who try to divert and distort the debate that the fundamental issues with the EU that many of us have are not in any way issues with people in countries struggling to cope with EZ membership who are doing the best they can for their families just as people in the UK are doing in coping with EU membership.

Edited by turbobloke on Sunday 1st February 13:28

Your advice was absolutely correct. It is much easier to excell within a growing economy. Which Greece clearly is not nor will it be in the forseeable future. Syriza is proming all things to all men a textbook left wing approach, everyone gains and no one loses out. Sadly that is wholly unrealistic nonsense which gets politicians elected. Which is their sole concern. Practical honest policies involve personal responsibility and personal improvement. Clealy not what Syriza are promising. Their policy is to remain within the Euro and get someone else to pay.

Regrettably this Syriza solition just will not work. Unless the EU can come up with another brilliant solution just to put off the awful day and buy time at the expense of the EU taxpayers funding the excesses of Greece with the printing presses then
Greece is going to default. How the default will be manages is any bodies guess if in fact it will be managed.

Looking at the abject failure of the EU "Solution" thus far I am not holding out much hope. Piss Up and Brewery come to Mind!

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Looking at the abject failure of the EU "Solution" thus far I am not holding out much hope. Piss Up and Brewery come to Mind!

Whilst enjoying the lager does that bratwurst go well with taramasalata.

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

[drdino]

Steffan said:

Your advice was absolutely correct. It is much easier to excell within a growing economy. Which Greece clearly is not nor will it be in the forseeable future. Syriza is proming all things to all men a textbook left wing approach, everyone gains and no one loses out. Sadly that is wholly unrealistic nonsense which gets politicians elected. Which is their sole concern. Practical honest policies involve personal responsibility and personal improvement. Clealy not what Syriza are promising. Their policy is to remain within the Euro and get someone else to pay.

Regrettably this Syriza solition just will not work. Unless the EU can come up with another brilliant solution just to put off the awful day and buy time at the expense of the EU taxpayers funding the excesses of Greece with the printing presses then
Greece is going to default. How the default will be manages is any bodies guess if in fact it will be managed.

Looking at the abject failure of the EU "Solution" thus far I am not holding out much hope. Piss Up and Brewery come to Mind!

Syriza (and the PM, Tsipras) are quite vocal in that they don't want to back down from Greece's commitment to the EU and the IMF. They would probably ask for some time in order to get a mid-term action plan under way. Whether they deserve it or not, them being a newly appointed government, is another question.
Out of what they want to do, getting rid of laws, policies etc that are helping the wealthy, is the most "leftist" point, the rest (balancing the budget, striking down on tax evasion, corruption, etc.) are pretty reasonable. If they manage to achieve that, kudos to them.

[PRTVR]

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

Do you not think that our gain with the intelligent people who come from Greece, will have a detrimental effect on the Greece economy, our gain is their loss and makes their situation worse in Greece.

[turbobloke]

PRTVR said:

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

Do you not think that our gain with the intelligent people who come from Greece, will have a detrimental effect on the Greece economy, our gain is their loss and makes their situation worse in Greece.

It does indeed. Also, in the case illustrated, the person is more than capable of applying for visas and permits and has high-level skills that the UK would snap up whether there was free movement or more paperwork. What's the big deal with a bit of paperwork anyway, when it gives you control of your borders.

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Steffan said:

Looking at the abject failure of the EU "Solution" thus far I am not holding out much hope. Piss Up and Brewery come to Mind!

Whilst enjoying the lager does that bratwurst go well with taramasalata.

It most certainly does although todays liunchen was a picnic on tha glorious City Walls of Lucca on a very well placed picnic bench overlooking the swathe of green that surround the city walls. Excellent Italian solid Wolf dry Red wine which is a Lucchese version of Montepulciano and very good it and not expensive over here.

Plates of various Italian meat creations more that we could possibly eat. Quite lovely and Italian Crepe Suzetts with what passes for cream in Italy more like Creme Anglais in my entirelynuninformed opinion. All quite lovely and the weather has been perfect all day here well over 15' on the walls in the sun which has blazed all day. Chillier at night but the weather is pretty mild even for Italy. Could change at any moment so, Carpe Diem is our motto!

Returning to the subject I cannot see how Syriza can square the circle and remain within the EU. Down to the EU to find a solution. The EU are the ones with the power and printing presses. Somehow I rather doubt that they will! The current solution has become a dead duck. Which we predicted some time ago. Is there another one? I think not.

[Steffan]

Latest from the BBC suggests Syriza are retracting on their initial position. Olive branch waving is the current trend.

See: http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31082656

I don't think Olive branch waving will work. Nor to I think that Greece can actually repay its debts. down to the EU and their fiddling ability I think. Which appears to be at stalemate. Where now? Down to the EU. Where now I wonder?

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

PRTVR said:

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

Do you not think that our gain with the intelligent people who come from Greece, will have a detrimental effect on the Greece economy, our gain is their loss and makes their situation worse in Greece.

It does indeed. Also, in the case illustrated, the person is more than capable of applying for visas and permits and has high-level skills that the UK would snap up whether there was free movement or more paperwork. What's the big deal with a bit of paperwork anyway, when it gives you control of your borders.

Maybe there should be a big wall built around Greece so that people can't get out, and another built around the UK so that people can't get in. That worked well for East Berlin, I'm sure many Germans look back fondly to the days when they couldn't leave the failed state that was communist East Germany...

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

PRTVR said:

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

Do you not think that our gain with the intelligent people who come from Greece, will have a detrimental effect on the Greece economy, our gain is their loss and makes their situation worse in Greece.

It does indeed. Also, in the case illustrated, the person is more than capable of applying for visas and permits and has high-level skills that the UK would snap up whether there was free movement or more paperwork. What's the big deal with a bit of paperwork anyway, when it gives you control of your borders.

Maybe there should be a big wall built around Greece so that people can't get out...

They'd build a few large and hollow horses as gifts to targeted countries in order to sneak out, nobody would suspect a thing.

RYH64E said:

...and another built around the UK so that people can't get in.

Paperwork and a points system would do nicely.

RYH64E said:

That worked well for East Berlin

Just as well we haven't got a corrupt communist regime to contend with!

RYH64E said:

I'm sure many Germans look back fondly to the days when they couldn't leave the failed state that was communist East Germany...

The BBC might but most people in the real world won't.

Have another bash at some failed sarcasm, that lot was too easy

[Borghetto]

Given the hoo ha caused by the huge Podemos rally in Madrid yesterday, it seems very likely every concession given to Greece will be a boost for these Spanish socialists. Merkel does look increasingly like the little boy who's finger is holding up the dyke (no pun intended). There is almost nothing the EU/Eurozone can do, which will not be ceased upon by Pedemos/Five Star or any number of anti europe parties and used to weaken the Union. Kohl and his fellow conspirators, must be rueing the day they tied their economy to these failing states.

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

They'd build a few large and hollow horses as gifts to targeted countries in order to sneak out, nobody would suspect a thing.

Unlikely, they've shown neither the ingenuity nor the persistence needed for such schemes in recent years, had they done so they might still be the superpower they were in their heyday. Anyway, the unions wouldn't allow it.

[tumble dryer]

Borghetto said:

Given the hoo ha caused by the huge Podemos rally in Madrid yesterday, it seems very likely every concession given to Greece will be a boost for these Spanish socialists. Merkel does look increasingly like the little boy who's finger is holding up the dyke (no pun intended). There is almost nothing the EU/Eurozone can do, which will not be ceased upon by Pedemos/Five Star or any number of anti europe parties and used to weaken the Union. Kohl and his fellow conspirators, must be rueing the day they tied their economy to these failing states.

I agree, and here's the thing - it is actually now, slowly, becoming about people power, vote-wise at least. It seems to me that the great unelected must be starting to $hit themselves over the transparent lack of power that they REALLY hold (cue scaremongering on a whole new level coming our way sometime soon).

I intimated earlier that if Greece succeeds (to whatever level) then Spain is likely to follow (pesky voters) and I'd suggest that Italy won't be far behind.

My main point though was this; such a voter-led rebellion would cause untold damage to the world's economies given the intertwined pail of spaghetti that is our global banking system.

I'm surprised this thought process hasn't been extrapolated before; it doesn't seem, to me, too big a leap to make.

Edited by tumble dryer on Sunday 1st February 18:03

[maffski]

PRTVR said:

RYH64E said:

turbobloke said:

As mentioned in a previous post, my niece's Greek husband (and his wife) took a decision a few years ago to relocate to the UK rather than consider starting married life in Athens, still a good call I think.

Which demonstrates two important points, firstly the EU principle of free movement of labour is a massive opportunity for those with the courage to take advantage of it, and secondly the UK shows that it's possible to be successful within the EU (and I would argue that it's easier for us to succeed within the EU than outside). The EU isn't the cause of Greece's problems, nor is it likely to be the solution, but it does make it easier for Greeks to escape those problems.

Do you not think that our gain with the intelligent people who come from Greece, will have a detrimental effect on the Greece economy, our gain is their loss and makes their situation worse in Greece.

Considering the basket case that is the Greek economy most skilled/specialist workers will simply be an unemployed drain on the state. Their moving to a different state saves Greece money, so is, for now at least, a good thing. Unless Greece can get employment going then nothing else will help.

[BlackLabel]

So British banks increased their exposure to Greece after the last bailout. Shock, horror! Rbs are the most exposed.

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1557...

[NicD]

BlackLabel said:

So British banks increased their exposure to Greece after the last bailout. Shock, horror! Rbs are the most exposed.

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1557...

Thats why the bankers are worth the big salaries and bonus. They can look into the future and make sure they pick the right side of the trade. fwits.

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Latest from the BBC suggests Syriza are retracting on their initial position. Olive branch waving is the current trend.

See: http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31082656

I don't think Olive branch waving will work. Nor to I think that Greece can actually repay its debts. down to the EU and their fiddling ability I think. Which appears to be at stalemate. Where now? Down to the EU. Where now I wonder?