Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

911Gary

4,162 posts

200 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all



Could the pyramid be inverted and still survive? I thought that was what the Greeks (and others) had been trying for a while already ...

[/quote]

Aahhh a Ponzi I thought so said that years ago.....

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:

b) stable? rofl Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
Just picking up on these points. GBP/EUR has been pretty stable over the last few years, and virtually static when compared to the llikely prospects for the New Drachma/Lira/Peseta. If you look at 2014 the GBP/EUR range was 1.19 to 1.28 with a recent rise to 1.33 following the Greek Elections, GBP/USD has been up and down like a fiddlers elbow, the 52 week range to end 2014 was 1.72 to 1.55 and we're currently trading at about 1.50. GBP has lost 13% against USD since the summer and 25% since it's peak in 2008, at which point the GBP/EUR was almost exactly the same as it is today.

The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:

b) stable? rofl Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
Just picking up on these points. GBP/EUR has been pretty stable over the last few years, and virtually static when compared to the llikely prospects for the New Drachma/Lira/Peseta. If you look at 2014 the GBP/EUR range was 1.19 to 1.28 with a recent rise to 1.33 following the Greek Elections, GBP/USD has been up and down like a fiddlers elbow, the 52 week range to end 2014 was 1.72 to 1.55 and we're currently trading at about 1.50. GBP has lost 13% against USD since the summer and 25% since it's peak in 2008, at which point the GBP/EUR was almost exactly the same as it is today.

The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.
What I meant by stable is trading in a range such as that allowed under the ERM. And we all know what happened when we were in that...

This country has freely traded with countries on the continent for literally thousands of years, back well before the Romans got here. With the advent of the internet, it's easier than ever before to trade all over the world.

I simply question why we need massive expensive outdated behemoths like the EU, its detached and irrelevant parliament and its ill-judged single currency. They simply prevent the normal checks and balances in open trading relationships. They simply succeed in perverting reality and screwing things up.

My view is the Euro has had the effect of destabilising the continent's economies with horrific results. The EU is an idea relevant to the post-war world, and today its time has truly been and gone. The one good thing to come out of the everlasting and multi-faceted Euro-crisis is that each day the EU gets weaker and weaker.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:

b) stable? rofl Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
Just picking up on these points. GBP/EUR has been pretty stable over the last few years, and virtually static when compared to the llikely prospects for the New Drachma/Lira/Peseta. If you look at 2014 the GBP/EUR range was 1.19 to 1.28 with a recent rise to 1.33 following the Greek Elections, GBP/USD has been up and down like a fiddlers elbow, the 52 week range to end 2014 was 1.72 to 1.55 and we're currently trading at about 1.50. GBP has lost 13% against USD since the summer and 25% since it's peak in 2008, at which point the GBP/EUR was almost exactly the same as it is today.

The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.
What I meant by stable is trading in a range such as that allowed under the ERM. And we all know what happened when we were in that...

This country has freely traded with countries on the continent for literally thousands of years, back well before the Romans got here. With the advent of the internet, it's easier than ever before to trade all over the world.

I simply question why we need massive expensive outdated behemoths like the EU, its detached and irrelevant parliament and its ill-judged single currency. They simply prevent the normal checks and balances in open trading relationships. They simply succeed in perverting reality and screwing things up.

My view is the Euro has had the effect of destabilising the continent's economies with horrific results. The EU is an idea relevant to the post-war world, and today its time has truly been and gone. The one good thing to come out of the everlasting and multi-faceted Euro-crisis is that each day the EU gets weaker and weaker.
I agree with Andy Zarse on the above. The EU has turned into a self perpetuating oligarchy regrettably with Bureaucrats who are both uninterested in the problems of the failing states and who clearly believe election results are of no consequence to them because they are above such trivial matters. Not good when a very senior Eurocrat can seriously confirm that the election results in Greece do not matter.

RYH64E Does put forward a number of very valid points in his contributions and he is quite correct there are features of the EU which have clearly been very beneficial to anyone in business who is looking for opportunities and takes them as the arise. The comlined market has been hugely beneficial and the protectionists EU polocies which have definitely directed the efforts of freign car makers buying up plants within the EU where otherwise they might have made the cars outside and imported them within. There are advatages.

However it does seem to me that the huge downsides of the EU are beginning to become too large, too widespread and too costly for this to be affordable as the beomoth it has now become. Bureacrats who are unaware and uninterested in the member states and their difficulties and seek the EU gravy train personally are not an affordable cost IMO.

On the matter in question the EU has absolutely no answer to the problems of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Malta , Cyprus, Italy Ireland, whatsoever. The "Solution " has been to lend more and more to the insolvent states knowing perfectly well that none of these can actually afford to borrow more money. Or indeed to afford tye repayments. The EU has mistakenly sought asupposedly no cost solution, by ignoring the reality that is absolutely obvious, that these "loans" will never be repaid. Once the dive of France and its current lunatic President are mixed in then size of tye oroblem of state insolvency within the EU , becomes starkly clear. Which the EU is desperately ignoring because the alternative would show this fraud for what it very clearly is. Fraud.

There are going to be referenda all over Europe as government after government seeks to ensure that their position is justifiable which must be right. I cannot see Cameron getting a yes vote through the way things are going currently. 2017 being the promised date! Nor can I see how the minnow, Greece, can actually follow the policies within their election manifesto and change privisation as they are doing and still remain within the EU. Spain is running ever closer behind Greece to the same inevitable conclusion. Who can blame them with massive under 30's unemployment and a totally bleak and hopless economic future for the entire coming generation?

One way of another this whole edifice needs serious reform. Is it actually possible to have a multi membership currency without fiscal control in the centre? The Governor of the Bank of England is on record as saying No. Much as I have no great regard for Carney on this occasion I think he is right. The concept of massive bureaucracy with independent states managed totally by their elected Governments and a combined currency supposedly manage by a central bank without the overall fiscal control or ability to control the polices and activities of the member states looks on the face of it to be wholly unworkable. That is the nub if the problem. Sadly I do not think that position will ever be reached by the EU because the individual states all wish to retain independent control of their economies. That is the real problem. Everyone want all the benefits but not all the inevitable costs! Unreal regrettably.

I think the EU have managed to prove tthat very effectively with this nonsense. One way or another the insolvent states have to face their problems. Being within of a currency they coud never afford and refusing to introduce policies which might offer a solution, such as the proposed sale of major ports in Greece, now scrapped by the Syriza lot, without reference to tye EU, is not a workable approach. Default would be very very difficult but the current Syriza approach just cannot work. Promising all things to all men and a land of milk and honey for all may get you elected. Regrettably as Syriza will find actually achieving this is actually not possible. Default is coming.






Edited by Steffan on Monday 2nd February 12:14

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
911Gary said:
Could the pyramid be inverted and still survive? I thought that was what the Greeks (and others) had been trying for a while already ...
Aahhh a Ponzi I thought so said that years ago.....
Life is a Ponzi. The key is to avoid being too extreme at the entrepreneurial end, if that is your habitation, so you don't get found out.

For the rest of the pyramid it is more a matter of putting up with the weight from above and finding ways to survive wherever you are in the structure.

A simplistic image I admit but ....

Maybe something more like a Skyscraper would be a better analogy in some parts of the world.

Brite spark

2,052 posts

200 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Greek banks may have a problem soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Brite spark said:
Greek banks may have a problem soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
Glad to see someone else follows Robert Peston. I think every aspect of life in Greece has a problem. To remain within the Euro, Greece must face reality. Not something Socialist's generally favour. Over borrowing and overspending being much more fun. And a lot more rewarding personally. Can Greece recover? Not within this unaffordable currency union IMO. I

think that this has some little time to run in order for the various show meetings and dramatic attempts by the politicians to to be ane to get maximum publicity out of appearing to care. Which actually they do not. In the end Greece will have a choice default of suffer more of the same: misery and penury. Two edged sword. I think default is more likely.

Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
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February 28 2015

Digga

40,207 posts

282 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Even the US are beginning to understand and sympathise with the Greek plight. There's talk of the need for 50% haircuts but some banks already.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Digga said:
Even the US are beginning to understand and sympathise with the Greek plight. There's talk of the need for 50% haircuts but some banks already.
I bet there is. Would that really make a difference and who is going to pay for such matters? Sovereign Stares defaulting is a pretty uncharted route especially in Europe. I do not think that the Greek politicians are up to the job. The EU taxpayers will be in the line for another stuffing.

Someone somewhere's going to suggest that the Euro has failed if this occurs. Which arguably it will have done. I would expect massive efforts by the EU to keep this rolling. How the EU disguises the subsidy and hides these losses is going to be the real question I think. Who knows??

Gargamel

14,958 posts

260 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Walford said:
February 28 2015
Is what ?


turbobloke

103,744 posts

259 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Walford said:
February 28 2015
Is what ?
G-Day.

Walford

2,259 posts

165 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Walford said:
February 28 2015
Is what ?
End of

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Walford said:
Gargamel said:
Walford said:
February 28 2015
Is what ?
End of
I presume this has a particular significance? Could be time for a showdown following the hustings in the EU and Greece clearly identifying the deeply serious concern EA politicians have on the surface. Whilst adroitly positioning themselves to the best personal advantage. I really do think default is the real option but the EU have the printing presses to make this disappear for Greece short term. Will they do so. I wonder.......

turbobloke

103,744 posts

259 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
This was the post (recent!) with the source of the G-Day date.

Brite spark said:
Greek banks may have a problem soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
It's in t'article from Pestonius.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
He's either a genius or a deluded fool...

http://www.channel4.com/news/yanis-varoufakis-gree...

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
He's either a genius or a deluded fool...

http://www.channel4.com/news/yanis-varoufakis-gree...
The latter I rather think. Certainly no genius. Promoting dress would come true was very probably his election approach.

Nothing of any real substance I fear.

jogon

2,971 posts

157 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
Steffan said:
Andy Zarse said:
He's either a genius or a deluded fool...

http://www.channel4.com/news/yanis-varoufakis-gree...
The latter I rather think. Certainly no genius. Promoting dress would come true was very probably his election approach.

Nothing of any real substance I fear.
Yep as much as I like his enthusiasm he does come across like a deluded fool. As his economics lecturer mentioned he was good at free thinking but failed at the application.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
I wonder if Greece has considered selling itself to Apple.

I suspect that Apple could afford it with a modicum of tax liability juggling by Goldman Sachs et al. Or maybe, as the giant US Tech firms come under more and more pressure to stump up taxes at home and around the world, they could get together and buy their own Nation and establish it as a tax haven and move forward on their plans for a new civilisation.


turbobloke

103,744 posts

259 months

Monday 2nd February 2015
quotequote all
LongQ said:
I wonder if Greece has considered selling itself to Apple.
idea