Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Andy Zarse said:
b) stable? Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
b) stable? Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.
This country has freely traded with countries on the continent for literally thousands of years, back well before the Romans got here. With the advent of the internet, it's easier than ever before to trade all over the world.
I simply question why we need massive expensive outdated behemoths like the EU, its detached and irrelevant parliament and its ill-judged single currency. They simply prevent the normal checks and balances in open trading relationships. They simply succeed in perverting reality and screwing things up.
My view is the Euro has had the effect of destabilising the continent's economies with horrific results. The EU is an idea relevant to the post-war world, and today its time has truly been and gone. The one good thing to come out of the everlasting and multi-faceted Euro-crisis is that each day the EU gets weaker and weaker.
Andy Zarse said:
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
b) stable? Euro has gone up and down like a yoyo! It's mainly down just now cancelling out a fair bit of the oil price falls. As to a protectionist market, EZ GDP is falling and in almost permanent borderline recession, there's widespread deflation and much of it the bad kind, and essentially we are shackled to a corpse.
The market is undoubtedly protectionist, whether it's in recession or not it's still an enormous market and we're on the inside, as are Greece, Spain, Italy etc. For all it's faults, it's still a fantastic opportunity for those willing and able to take advantage. I speak from experience here, if it's a corpse we're shackled to it's still a profitable corpse.
This country has freely traded with countries on the continent for literally thousands of years, back well before the Romans got here. With the advent of the internet, it's easier than ever before to trade all over the world.
I simply question why we need massive expensive outdated behemoths like the EU, its detached and irrelevant parliament and its ill-judged single currency. They simply prevent the normal checks and balances in open trading relationships. They simply succeed in perverting reality and screwing things up.
My view is the Euro has had the effect of destabilising the continent's economies with horrific results. The EU is an idea relevant to the post-war world, and today its time has truly been and gone. The one good thing to come out of the everlasting and multi-faceted Euro-crisis is that each day the EU gets weaker and weaker.
RYH64E Does put forward a number of very valid points in his contributions and he is quite correct there are features of the EU which have clearly been very beneficial to anyone in business who is looking for opportunities and takes them as the arise. The comlined market has been hugely beneficial and the protectionists EU polocies which have definitely directed the efforts of freign car makers buying up plants within the EU where otherwise they might have made the cars outside and imported them within. There are advatages.
However it does seem to me that the huge downsides of the EU are beginning to become too large, too widespread and too costly for this to be affordable as the beomoth it has now become. Bureacrats who are unaware and uninterested in the member states and their difficulties and seek the EU gravy train personally are not an affordable cost IMO.
On the matter in question the EU has absolutely no answer to the problems of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Malta , Cyprus, Italy Ireland, whatsoever. The "Solution " has been to lend more and more to the insolvent states knowing perfectly well that none of these can actually afford to borrow more money. Or indeed to afford tye repayments. The EU has mistakenly sought asupposedly no cost solution, by ignoring the reality that is absolutely obvious, that these "loans" will never be repaid. Once the dive of France and its current lunatic President are mixed in then size of tye oroblem of state insolvency within the EU , becomes starkly clear. Which the EU is desperately ignoring because the alternative would show this fraud for what it very clearly is. Fraud.
There are going to be referenda all over Europe as government after government seeks to ensure that their position is justifiable which must be right. I cannot see Cameron getting a yes vote through the way things are going currently. 2017 being the promised date! Nor can I see how the minnow, Greece, can actually follow the policies within their election manifesto and change privisation as they are doing and still remain within the EU. Spain is running ever closer behind Greece to the same inevitable conclusion. Who can blame them with massive under 30's unemployment and a totally bleak and hopless economic future for the entire coming generation?
One way of another this whole edifice needs serious reform. Is it actually possible to have a multi membership currency without fiscal control in the centre? The Governor of the Bank of England is on record as saying No. Much as I have no great regard for Carney on this occasion I think he is right. The concept of massive bureaucracy with independent states managed totally by their elected Governments and a combined currency supposedly manage by a central bank without the overall fiscal control or ability to control the polices and activities of the member states looks on the face of it to be wholly unworkable. That is the nub if the problem. Sadly I do not think that position will ever be reached by the EU because the individual states all wish to retain independent control of their economies. That is the real problem. Everyone want all the benefits but not all the inevitable costs! Unreal regrettably.
I think the EU have managed to prove tthat very effectively with this nonsense. One way or another the insolvent states have to face their problems. Being within of a currency they coud never afford and refusing to introduce policies which might offer a solution, such as the proposed sale of major ports in Greece, now scrapped by the Syriza lot, without reference to tye EU, is not a workable approach. Default would be very very difficult but the current Syriza approach just cannot work. Promising all things to all men and a land of milk and honey for all may get you elected. Regrettably as Syriza will find actually achieving this is actually not possible. Default is coming.
Edited by Steffan on Monday 2nd February 12:14
911Gary said:
Could the pyramid be inverted and still survive? I thought that was what the Greeks (and others) had been trying for a while already ...
Aahhh a Ponzi I thought so said that years ago.....For the rest of the pyramid it is more a matter of putting up with the weight from above and finding ways to survive wherever you are in the structure.
A simplistic image I admit but ....
Maybe something more like a Skyscraper would be a better analogy in some parts of the world.
Brite spark said:
Greek banks may have a problem soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
Glad to see someone else follows Robert Peston. I think every aspect of life in Greece has a problem. To remain within the Euro, Greece must face reality. Not something Socialist's generally favour. Over borrowing and overspending being much more fun. And a lot more rewarding personally. Can Greece recover? Not within this unaffordable currency union IMO. Ihttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
think that this has some little time to run in order for the various show meetings and dramatic attempts by the politicians to to be ane to get maximum publicity out of appearing to care. Which actually they do not. In the end Greece will have a choice default of suffer more of the same: misery and penury. Two edged sword. I think default is more likely.
Digga said:
Even the US are beginning to understand and sympathise with the Greek plight. There's talk of the need for 50% haircuts but some banks already.
I bet there is. Would that really make a difference and who is going to pay for such matters? Sovereign Stares defaulting is a pretty uncharted route especially in Europe. I do not think that the Greek politicians are up to the job. The EU taxpayers will be in the line for another stuffing. Someone somewhere's going to suggest that the Euro has failed if this occurs. Which arguably it will have done. I would expect massive efforts by the EU to keep this rolling. How the EU disguises the subsidy and hides these losses is going to be the real question I think. Who knows??
Walford said:
Gargamel said:
Walford said:
February 28 2015
Is what ? This was the post (recent!) with the source of the G-Day date.
Brite spark said:
Greek banks may have a problem soon
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
It's in t'article from Pestonius.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31090415
Andy Zarse said:
The latter I rather think. Certainly no genius. Promoting dress would come true was very probably his election approach. Nothing of any real substance I fear.
Steffan said:
Andy Zarse said:
The latter I rather think. Certainly no genius. Promoting dress would come true was very probably his election approach. Nothing of any real substance I fear.
I wonder if Greece has considered selling itself to Apple.
I suspect that Apple could afford it with a modicum of tax liability juggling by Goldman Sachs et al. Or maybe, as the giant US Tech firms come under more and more pressure to stump up taxes at home and around the world, they could get together and buy their own Nation and establish it as a tax haven and move forward on their plans for a new civilisation.
I suspect that Apple could afford it with a modicum of tax liability juggling by Goldman Sachs et al. Or maybe, as the giant US Tech firms come under more and more pressure to stump up taxes at home and around the world, they could get together and buy their own Nation and establish it as a tax haven and move forward on their plans for a new civilisation.
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