Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Welshbeef]

Surely the high risk tactic Greece could take is to sell itself to Russia.
Adopt the Rubble have a high soviet military presence on that boarder

A high risk game of brinkmanship but a suggestion of this could see the EU change its perceived tact significantly. It would be a game changing move & for the Greek people would that be the best option?

[Axionknight]

LongQ said:

I wonder if Greece has considered selling itself to Apple.

[Steffan]

Welshbeef said:

Surely the high risk tactic Greece could take is to sell itself to Russia.
Adopt the Rubble have a high soviet military presence on that boarder

A high risk game of brinkmanship but a suggestion of this could see the EU change its perceived tact significantly. It would be a game changing move & for the Greek people would that be the best option?

I do think there is some potential in the Russian alternative. However Russia is already saddled with a currency that is itself in dire straits and there is a lot of history not all of it good between Greece and Russia. But this could be a means of effecting a real game change in the EU position because the EU would hate suh an agreement.

Very difficult to predict where this lot goes. The most likely result will be a failure by Greece to recover in any way at all financially and a failure by the EU to actually get to grips with the problem at all. That as been the result of the ast five years of misery fir Greece. For those reasons default seems to me to be a real probability. But who knows with this bunch of self serving, self interested, self concerned, glory seekers all focused on keeping on the EU gravy train personally and making sure there is a safe overpaid job available to them personally, toparachute into when the whole lot collapses? Unpredictable is surely the result.

[RYH64E]

Steffan said:

Welshbeef said:

Surely the high risk tactic Greece could take is to sell itself to Russia.
Adopt the Rubble have a high soviet military presence on that boarder

A high risk game of brinkmanship but a suggestion of this could see the EU change its perceived tact significantly. It would be a game changing move & for the Greek people would that be the best option?

I do think there is some potential in the Russian alternative. However Russia is already saddled with a currency that is itself in dire straits and there is a lot of history not all of it good between Greece and Russia. But this could be a means of effecting a real game change in the EU position because the EU would hate suh an agreement.

Very difficult to predict where this lot goes. The most likely result will be a failure by Greece to recover in any way at all financially and a failure by the EU to actually get to grips with the problem at all. That as been the result of the ast five years of misery fir Greece. For those reasons default seems to me to be a real probability. But who knows with this bunch of self serving, self interested, self concerned, glory seekers all focused on keeping on the EU gravy train personally and making sure there is a safe overpaid job available to them personally, toparachute into when the whole lot collapses? Unpredictable is surely the result.

Not sure how a Russian venture would help in the 'reject austerity' aspiration, I'm no expert, but I don't think that the standard of living in Russia as a whole meets the expectations of the Greek people. If the alternative is Russia, I think most would reconsider their objections to the EU and Germany.

[Steffan]

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Welshbeef said:

Surely the high risk tactic Greece could take is to sell itself to Russia.
Adopt the Rubble have a high soviet military presence on that boarder

A high risk game of brinkmanship but a suggestion of this could see the EU change its perceived tact significantly. It would be a game changing move & for the Greek people would that be the best option?

I do think there is some potential in the Russian alternative. However Russia is already saddled with a currency that is itself in dire straits and there is a lot of history not all of it good between Greece and Russia. But this could be a means of effecting a real game change in the EU position because the EU would hate suh an agreement.

Very difficult to predict where this lot goes. The most likely result will be a failure by Greece to recover in any way at all financially and a failure by the EU to actually get to grips with the problem at all. That as been the result of the ast five years of misery fir Greece. For those reasons default seems to me to be a real probability. But who knows with this bunch of self serving, self interested, self concerned, glory seekers all focused on keeping on the EU gravy train personally and making sure there is a safe overpaid job available to them personally, toparachute into when the whole lot collapses? Unpredictable is surely the result.

Not sure how a Russian venture would help in the 'reject austerity' aspiration, I'm no expert, but I don't think that the standard of living in Russia as a whole meets the expectations of the Greek people. If the alternative is Russia, I think most would reconsider their objections to the EU and Germany.

You may well be absolutely right. The dreamland hooes of some miracle esuring more employment and a recovering economy without actually facingtye robem and making any changes or accepting the need for any major alterations in the Greek economy has been the problem from the start in this affair. "If wishes came true we would all be kings," is a phrase I overworked for years in advising clients in financial difficulty and there were always those about.

What Greece and the EU dream about is a magic pill that costs nothing and solves all the fundamental economic oroblems. Wanting a position in Economics to improve is not the same at all as actually facing the problem, recognising that changes are essential and actually making those changes. As the EU and Greece have duscovered the strength of character and drive required to make such changes happen efficiently and effectively requires real ability and real commitment. Which they do not seem to have.

I see much shilly shallying in Greece and the EU. Much handwringing and hopeless waffling. I do not see any sign of any real practical and constructive changes. Sadly the characters do not seem up to the job. Default seems to me to be facing these characters directly now.

[Brite spark]

Watching rt last night and headline scrolling across bottom reads Greek finance minister says deal expected shortly after meeting with George osbourne
Also in the guardian http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/feb/...

[craig7l]

what we thinking ..... a 25% total debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!

[Gargamel]

craig7l said:

what we thinking ..... a 25% total debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!

Not sure it is as easy as that any more.

Before the election my money was on a 50% write off, and an extension out to around 25 and 50 years on part of the debts, continued funding by the ECB for Greece's banks and an unequivocal statement from all parties that the crises was over, no backs would collapse and that the ESF was created for this possibility and was now being used.

However I think Syriza have lost any opportunity they may have had when they reneged on the Asset deals that were in place for the Poser company, the Port and some other state asset sell offs.

Additionally the positioning on Pensions, and Public Sector workers have offended the Troika, and I now can only predict a full blown banking collapse in Greece.

The ECB funding is the only thing keeping the Greek Government afloat, so Syriza thumbing their noses at the EU boys and girls is massively counterproductive.

I can't see how Syriza can reconcile their actions, with finding a workable solution via negotiation.

[Andy Zarse]

Gargamel said:

craig7l said:

what we thinking ..... a 25% total debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!

Not sure it is as easy as that any more.

Before the election my money was on a 50% write off, and an extension out to around 25 and 50 years on part of the debts, continued funding by the ECB for Greece's banks and an unequivocal statement from all parties that the crises was over, no backs would collapse and that the ESF was created for this possibility and was now being used.

However I think Syriza have lost any opportunity they may have had when they reneged on the Asset deals that were in place for the Poser company, the Port and some other state asset sell offs.

Additionally the positioning on Pensions, and Public Sector workers have offended the Troika, and I now can only predict a full blown banking collapse in Greece.

The ECB funding is the only thing keeping the Greek Government afloat, so Syriza thumbing their noses at the EU boys and girls is massively counterproductive.

I can't see how Syriza can reconcile their actions, with finding a workable solution via negotiation.

My view is that things are poised quite finely. I think Schauble was ready to chuck them out point blank. But he's now had a look at the various angles and what a naked default means domestically in Germany and wound his neck in a bit. Maybe a compromise can be reached by lowering interest rates, extending terms and lowering the budget surplus required? Acceptable to Syriza? Who knows, watch this space...

[RYH64E]

Andy Zarse said:

My view is that things are poised quite finely. I think Schauble was ready to chuck them out point blank. But he's now had a look at the various angles and what a naked default means domestically in Germany and wound his neck in a bit. Maybe a compromise can be reached by lowering interest rates, extending terms and lowering the budget surplus required? Acceptable to Syriza? Who knows, watch this space...

Syriza have promised an end to austerity, which many who voted for them will interpret as more jobs, more public services, higher pay and an all round better life, I can see no earthly way that Syriza can possibly deliver that within an acceptable time frame (if ever). Quite how they can go back to the EU and sell the case that they can't afford to repay their debts because they've promised their electorate that the good times are returning I don't know. One thing's for sure, if they piss the EU off to the extent that they withdraw funding from Greek banks and Greece has to leave the euro then the next few years are going to be very austere indeed.

Greece might be better off in the long term if they exit the euro (I don't think so, but who knows) but their short term prospects will be unimaginably grim, the last few years of austerity will seem like some kind of utopian dream in comparison.

[Steffan]

Andy Zarse said:

Gargamel said:

craig7l said:

what we thinking ..... a 25% total debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!

Not sure it is as easy as that any more.

Before the election my money was on a 50% write off, and an extension out to around 25 and 50 years on part of the debts, continued funding by the ECB for Greece's banks and an unequivocal statement from all parties that the crises was over, no backs would collapse and that the ESF was created for this possibility and was now being used.

However I think Syriza have lost any opportunity they may have had when they reneged on the Asset deals that were in place for the Poser company, the Port and some other state asset sell offs.

Additionally the positioning on Pensions, and Public Sector workers have offended the TroikaQ, and I now can only predict a full blown banking collapse in Greece.

The ECB funding is the only thing keeping the Greek Government afloat, so Syriza thumbing their noses at the EU boys and girls is massively counterproductive.

I can't see how Syriza can reconcile their actions, with finding a workable solution via negotiation.

My view is that things are poised quite finely. I think Schauble was ready to chuck them out point blank. But he's now had a look at the various angles and what a naked default means domestically in Germany and wound his neck in a bit. Maybe a compromise can be reached by lowering interest rates, extending terms and lowering the budget surplus required? Acceptable to Syriza? Who knows, watch this space...

Looking to discover a practical real workable method to prevent the collapse of Greece has gone beyond the capabilities of the EU I would suggest. As Gargamel suggest and AndyZarse confirmed the whole affair is very finely poised now. The EU have lost the control of this matter, totally.. Syriza have rejected the sales of Greek ports outright. No discussion no consultation. Will the EU now indulge the Greeks by creating a new deal which favours Greece? What then with Portugal,Spain, Italy, and all the other failing states who will want to join this latest new club. Even more deby write iffs. Its nit reall any more is it? Which the EU understand perfectly well. The additional renaging by Greece, on pensions and so on is just more grist to Mill of serious difficulties that Syriza is compounding for the EU.

This "Solution" was supposed to be the final answer provided by the EU to Greece to guarantee Grecer emaining within the EU. It has fallen apart and only fools will believe that a bit of adjustment will solve the matter. Greece cannt afford to repay its debts. Syriza will, indeed, has not , honoured the agreements of pervious agrees governments. Busted Fllush time.

A very senior unelected fool from the bureacracy of the EU (There are Thousands About) stated earlier last week in the News that election results do not matter. He suggested the Greek Government could not alter the EU agreements.Clearly they can and are without notice. I do think this has become unfixable for both the EU and Greece. Who will believe another solution on this from the EU involving more debt write offs and more concessions to Greece? I suggest no one.

This is beyond the EU now IMO. The EU can print lots of QE and ruin the value of tha Euro in the process. But the actions of Syriza are quite clear. The warm words emaating from Syriza from are clearly Socilist nonsences. Syriza will pull out if they do not get what Syriza want and I do not think the EU can recover this matter at all. Default is clearly coming.

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 3rd February 13:51

[Digga]

Steffan said:

A very senior unelected fool from the bureacracy of the EU (There are Thousands About) stated earlier last week in the News that election results do not matter. He suggested the Greek Government could not alter the EU agreements.

An interesting sentiment, apparently being parroted by the Germans.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/back-squa...

zerohedge article said:

"we have agreements with Greece and not with a government - and these agreements have to be adhered to."

[maffski]

Steffan said:

The EU have lost the control of this matter, totally.. Syriza have rejected the sales of Greek ports outright. No discussion no consultation. Will the EU now indulge the Greeks by creating a new deal which favours Greece?

The EU does seem paralyzed by the prospect of failure. Perhaps Syriza think forcing the agenda and then offering some compromise to allow the EU to save face will work. If so, why offer new commitments when simply agreeing to re-instate the existing ones might be enough? You can only sell your state owned docks once. You can promise to sell them twice.

[YankeePorker]

Steffan said:

Syriza have rejected the sales of Greek ports outright. No discussion no consultation.

I have some sympathy with them on this point, a fire sale of state assets for less than their real value and then throwing the proceeds into a black hole of debt isn't really helpful in the longer term. In fact it looks like a simple strategy to asset strip the country while they're down and out.

[Steffan]

maffski said:

Steffan said:

The EU have lost the control of this matter, totally.. Syriza have rejected the sales of Greek ports outright. No discussion no consultation. Will the EU now indulge the Greeks by creating a new deal which favours Greece?

The EU does seem paralyzed by the prospect of failure. Perhaps Syriza think forcing the agenda and then offering some compromise to allow the EU to save face will work. If so, why offer new commitments when simply agreeing to re-instate the existing ones might be enough? You can only sell your state owned docks once. You can promise to sell them twice.

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts is my take on this. Greece is looking out for Greece and no one else. If they can duck some more debt I have no doubt they will. Warm words are cheap and easy. And are of no value in situations like this. Syriza clearly intends to take all it can get from the EU.

Every Euro written off means more votes for Syriza in Greece. If Syriza succeed in this the other Greek politicians are toast. The EU lost control of this some time ago. I cannot see a continuance for Greece within the EU nor an I see further debt reduction. Default looms IMO. But Syriza are playing this well. The EU have the problem. What will the EU decide to do? Who knows. Their "Solution"is a dead duck.

[s2art]

Going by previous history I think we can see where this is going. The can is going to be hoofed again. Greek debt will be restructured, interest on it will be reduced by a percent or so and the repayment period extended so far into the future that the EU think it will be for the next generation to resolve the problem. The rules regarding a primary surplus will be relaxed, enabling the Greek government to reduce austerity. Its likely that there will be some default on some debts (but not to the IMF and the Troika). Everyone pats themselves on the back, thinking the crisis is over. Give it another year and its back only this time with a vengeance.

[Digga]

You can hear the can clattering down the road a few short steps already. What is unfortunate is that the present Greek government might represent the best opportunity in a lifetime to resolve the very deeply underlying problems, at the heart of the issue. If only the Troika seemed remotely motivated to assist in this regard, then a degree of can kicking might be deemed worthwhile.

[Mermaid]

s2art said:

Going by previous history I think we can see where this is going. The can is going to be hoofed again. Greek debt will be restructured, interest on it will be reduced by a percent or so and the repayment period extended so far into the future that the EU think it will be for the next generation to resolve the problem. The rules regarding a primary surplus will be relaxed, enabling the Greek government to reduce austerity. Its likely that there will be some default on some debts (but not to the IMF and the Troika). Everyone pats themselves on the back, thinking the crisis is over. Give it another year and its back only this time with a vengeance.

Fudge, and then some more.


That seems favourite, until 2 or 3 countries arrive at the same point at the same time.

[Steffan]

Latest from Robert Peston suggesting that Syriza are seeking five month interim period cooling off period says it all for me. The problem is firmly in the lap of he EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31109731

I understand the efforts of Syriza who are clearly out for what they can get. It's of course total bks. The agreement is in place. Has been for many years. A five month cooling off oeriod will just ensure another set of excuses in five months time. Down to the EU. Greece cearly cannot afford these debts. Therefore Greece cannot remain within the EU.

[craig7l]

craig7l said:

what we thinking ..... a 25% 2.5% total hidden debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!