Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
craig7l said:
craig7l said:
what we thinking ..... a 25% 2.5% total hidden debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
Steffan said:
craig7l said:
craig7l said:
what we thinking ..... a 25% 2.5% total hidden debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
The EU has a track record for kicking the can just far enough to placate the markets. They'll try to do it again and again until they get caught out or someone calls their bluff and flat out refuses to agree to their conditions. Interesting times.
YankeePorker said:
Steffan said:
Syriza have rejected the sales of Greek ports outright. No discussion no consultation.
I have some sympathy with them on this point, a fire sale of state assets for less than their real value and then throwing the proceeds into a black hole of debt isn't really helpful in the longer term. In fact it looks like a simple strategy to asset strip the country while they're down and out.Mark Benson said:
Steffan said:
craig7l said:
craig7l said:
what we thinking ..... a 25% 2.5% total hidden debt write off with a few other huff and puff economic implementations that will allow Greece and the EU to breath for another 3 years........
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
unless another party in spain /Portugal etc get elected then its as it were, kick that can boys...!!
The EU has a track record for kicking the can just far enough to placate the markets. They'll try to do it again and again until they get caught out or someone calls their bluff and flat out refuses to agree to their conditions. Interesting times.
(although we all know the arguments that this potentially would and should be the best thing to happen)
That is why the EU go into any negotiations with a slightly upper hand. So although I agree its an EU problem its just as much or more Tsipras not to loose the euro and return to its people a token gesture to pacify.
My prediction for the end of the Euro will not be market driven but people, and a clear and definite mandate to go it alone ratified by its population...or not.....
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
My view is that things are poised quite finely. I think Schauble was ready to chuck them out point blank. But he's now had a look at the various angles and what a naked default means domestically in Germany and wound his neck in a bit. Maybe a compromise can be reached by lowering interest rates, extending terms and lowering the budget surplus required? Acceptable to Syriza? Who knows, watch this space...
Syriza have promised an end to austerity, which many who voted for them will interpret as more jobs, more public services, higher pay and an all round better life, I can see no earthly way that Syriza can possibly deliver that within an acceptable time frame (if ever). Quite how they can go back to the EU and sell the case that they can't afford to repay their debts because they've promised their electorate that the good times are returning I don't know. One thing's for sure, if they piss the EU off to the extent that they withdraw funding from Greek banks and Greece has to leave the euro then the next few years are going to be very austere indeed. Greece might be better off in the long term if they exit the euro (I don't think so, but who knows) but their short term prospects will be unimaginably grim, the last few years of austerity will seem like some kind of utopian dream in comparison.
I know it's crying over spilt milk, but Greece really should have defaulted and devalued five years ago. If someone had suggested in 2010 that five years later default/devaluation would result in:
- a near 30% contraction in the economy,
- all the banks totally insolvent,
- 60% youth unemployment,
- mass emigration of the young,
- Eu1 billion a day outflow of cash,
- and the popular election of a Marxist government,
then many people would have said that would be a "worst case scenario".
And yet, after all the Troika bail-outs, all the wasted EU money, all the sweat, tears and toil, here we are, exactly as above.
Andy Zarse said:
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
My view is that things are poised quite finely. I think Schauble was ready to chuck them out point blank. But he's now had a look at the various angles and what a naked default means domestically in Germany and wound his neck in a bit. Maybe a compromise can be reached by lowering interest rates, extending terms and lowering the budget surplus required? Acceptable to Syriza? Who knows, watch this space...
Syriza have promised an end to austerity, which many who voted for them will interpret as more jobs, more public services, higher pay and an all round better life, I can see no earthly way that Syriza can possibly deliver that within an acceptable time frame (if ever). Quite how they can go back to the EU and sell the case that they can't afford to repay their debts because they've promised their electorate that the good times are returning I don't know. One thing's for sure, if they piss the EU off to the extent that they withdraw funding from Greek banks and Greece has to leave the euro then the next few years are going to be very austere indeed. Greece might be better off in the long term if they exit the euro (I don't think so, but who knows) but their short term prospects will be unimaginably grim, the last few years of austerity will seem like some kind of utopian dream in comparison.
I know it's crying over spilt milk, but Greece really should have defaulted and devalued five years ago. If someone had suggested in 2010 that five years later default/devaluation would result in:
- a near 30% contraction in the economy,
- all the banks totally insolvent,
- 60% youth unemployment,
- mass emigration of the young,
- Eu1 billion a day outflow of cash,
- and the popular election of a Marxist government,
then many people would have said that would be a "worst case scenario".
And yet, after all the Troika bail-outs, all the wasted EU money, all the sweat, tears and toil, here we are, exactly as above.
Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too
- Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.turbobloke said:
Beware the EU / troika bearing gifts...misery and more misery.
Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too - Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.
Erm, jolly good luck to him with that. And good luck too to the FT, the paper which is almost never right... Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too
- Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.
I understand Mr Varoufakis is a very experienced player of internet war games and the like. He's using gamesmanship for sure, trying to put up a chaotic front to keep his enemies guessing. My view is the Troika might be fools, but not big enough ones to be had over by his divide and conquer tactics. It won't help.
Andy Zarse said:
turbobloke said:
Beware the EU / troika bearing gifts...misery and more misery.
Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too - Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.
Erm, jolly good luck to him with that. And good luck too to the FT, the paper which is almost never right... Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too
- Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.I understand Mr Varoufakis is a very experienced player of internet war games and the like. He's using gamesmanship for sure, trying to put up a chaotic front to keep his enemies guessing. My view is the Troika might be fools, but not big enough ones to be had over by his divide and conquer tactics. It won't help.
I agree that the Syriza efforts which are carefully crafted to create confusion will fail to impress the EU egotiatirs. Merkel is on record many times saying to further debt relief for Grrece. To change now would be madness which I doubt Merkel suffers from. Default by Greece will case a lot of significant problems. Either Greece will stay in the Eu without achieving better terms or Greece will default. Unpalatable but realistic. Ths stage strutting dramatics is a nice try but I cannt see any further concessions to Greece.
Andy Zarse said:
turbobloke said:
Beware the EU / troika bearing gifts...misery and more misery.
Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too - Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access.
Erm, jolly good luck to him with that. And good luck too to the FT, the paper which is almost never right... Meanwhile...from the FT so as per FT protocol and the PH ban on copying and pasting from newspapers, quite right too
- Athens plots a daring escape from the troika, in a political bind Syriza is right to deal directly with eurozone states for those with access. Sure, as you say it's often left.Andy Zarse said:
I understand Mr Varoufakis is a very experienced player of internet war games and the like. He's using gamesmanship for sure, trying to put up a chaotic front to keep his enemies guessing. My view is the Troika might be fools, but not big enough ones to be had over by his divide and conquer tactics. It won't help.
They have their pet project and face to save. As mentioned previously, if Greece goes, regains sovereignty and monetary control, devalues and recovers strongly after the initial shock, then there would be a queue at the exit and the Eurodrones would have tough times themselves for a while, though their tax-free salaries and platinum plated pensions will be saved at all costs.turbobloke said:
...and recovers strongly after the initial shock,
The initial shock is guaranteed to be bad with banks going bust and customer deposits converting to some worthless new currency. A strong recovery is much less certain, the timescale isn't likely to be short, and would anyway be dependant upon large scale reform of working practices and tax structure (someone would have to pay some!) that's unlikely to be either likely or welcome.There's a good chance that things get so bad in a post-exit Greece that Spain/Portugal/Italy et al form a queue to kiss Merkel's arse and beg to stay in the EU.
RYH64E said:
Sympathy maybe, but that's what happens when you take on debt you can't afford, ask anyone who's had their house repossessed because they can't pay their mortgage.
Absolutely, but at the end of that process you're declared bankrupt and your creditors can't get any more money from you. In the case of the cunning plan being run by the Troika, you sell all your assets, give them the money, only to find yourself even more in debt than before!My sympathy is tempered because obviously the Greeks got themselves in this position in the first place, but if the objective of the original "bail out" was to help the country get back on its feet then I would question whether fire sale asset stripping is the best approach to a solution!
YankeePorker said:
My sympathy is tempered because obviously the Greeks got themselves in this position in the first place, but if the objective of the original "bail out" was to help the country get back on its feet then I would question whether fire sale asset stripping is the best approach to a solution!
Seems to have worked out so far for the UK.Long term one has to grab it all back via re-nationalisation of course.
Then, over time, rinse and repeat.
Beats having to be competitive in the absence of subsidies from the tax and savings grab.
fblm said:
Walford said:
turbobloke said:
though their tax-free salaries and platinum plated pensions will be saved at all costs.
How many people?O/T an associate I hadn't heard from for some time has married a Japanese diplomat and is living in Tokyo - as a result he is barred by law from working. Not just potentially dodgy work that could be a security risk, any and all work is off the cards. His wife has her quite reasonable diplomat's salary and benefits, on top of which another 'salary' is paid to compensate her husband for not being able to work. I did check if it was April 01 but then he could have been high or delirious from sniffing items from vending machines when describing this situation.
GlenMH said:
Depends on his visa. If he is a dependent, then he just needs to register with immigration to be allowed to work up to 17 hours/week.
As a diplomat's spouse? OK, if that's the case he didn't mention it...no idea why It was just a case of work, any work, being against the law.GlenMH said:
Of course, he could just spend all day sat in his undercrackers using the internet for what it was designed for, instead 
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