Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[GlenMH]

turbobloke said:

GlenMH said:

Depends on his visa. If he is a dependent, then he just needs to register with immigration to be allowed to work up to 17 hours/week.

As a diplomat's spouse? OK, if that's the case he didn't mention it...no idea why.

TBH, he may not know. I only found out when I got asked to do some work so I decided to be legit about it. Going to the immigration authorities to get the relevant bit of paper was a right pain the derriere...

turbobloke said:

GlenMH said:

Of course, he could just spend all day sat in his undercrackers using the internet for what it was designed for, instead

Confess - you know him too!

No - I had 3½ years in Tokyo drinking beer and doing exactly that!

[Andrew[MG]]

GlenMH said:

No - I had 3½ years in Tokyo drinking beer and doing exactly that!

Are you the Glen that we (4 Scottish boys) met when out in Japan for the football?

[Claudia Skies]

garyhun said:

Is polygamy legal in Japan?

Note that polygamy is not really illegal in UK. Sure, you're not supposed to enter two legal marriages in UK at the same time but there are plenty of arabs and others shacked up in London with their multiple wives.

If it was "really illegal", like owning a machine-gun, the wives would have to stay out of UK.

[anonymous-user]

Claudia Skies said:

Note that polygamy is not really illegal in UK. Sure, you're not supposed to enter two legal marriages in UK at the same time but there are plenty of arabs and others shacked up in London with their multiple wives.

If it was "really illegal", like owning a machine-gun, the wives would have to stay out of UK.

Maybe the law takes the view that having two wives is punishment enough?

[Steffan]

Claudia Skies said:

garyhun said:

Is polygamy legal in Japan?

Note that polygamy is not really illegal in UK. Sure, you're not supposed to enter two legal marriages in UK at the same time but there are plenty of arabs and others shacked up in London with their multiple wives.

If it was "really illegal", like owning a machine-gun, the wives would have to stay out of UK.

Polygamy is not actually awful within the UK. Choosing to live with numerous acquaintances and engage in whatever activities take your fancy is perfectly legal. But polygamy is unlawful. Individuals may enter into polygamous relationships legally in certain countries outside the UK. The UK typiclly takes a low profile with such relationshios over here. But that does not mean that polygamy in the UK is lawful. The authorities would take action if they were notified that a bigamous marriage was to take place. If they are unaware of the activity it is difficult to see what action they could take.

Live and and let live is one of the strengths of society in the UK. However polygamous marriages are not allowed to be effected awfully in the UK.

[Brite spark]

Banks downgraded after new eu law,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
What effect on europes banks?

[Steffan]

The papers and media are full of the warm words and good feelings emanating from all the front page travelling and handshaking that the Syriza politicians obviously see as the best way forward. Regrettably I suspect that other than rearranging the deck chairs on a economic sinking ship which may tidy things up a bit, but clearly will not alter the structure of the agreement with the EU in any way whatsoever.

Syriza have clearly planned their approach and the charm offensive has been most effective. As politicians worldwide have discovered in recent years pressing the flesh at innumerable G20's and so forth do ensure plenty of coverage by the media of such well publicised nonsense. The ctual results seem to be of little value. The costs of such junkets are hardly helping Greece and underline the modern approach of politicians. Publicity is important: policies are of no consequence. Prmarilybbecause that approach suits them and gives them personal approbation and higher personal profiles. Celebrity here we come!

I cannot see how Greece can actually afford the the repayment of the debt it has undertaken to repay. The actions of Syriza in immediately stopping the sales of ports (agreed with the EU as part of the rescue solution, agreed years ago with the EU as part!of the process leading to the Solution) and the commitment to reintroduce totally unaffordable pensions in Greece and so on clearly will not enable Greece to pay its debts.

Sees to me this is just warm words which will be followed by abject failure. Pity because I think Greece needs to start facing the reality of being massively over borrowed. I regret to say I do think default remains the only practical option especially with Merkel and Co hammering the requirements of meeting the debt repayments continually.

[GlenMH]

Andrew[MG] said:

Are you the Glen that we (4 Scottish boys) met when out in Japan for the football?

Yup!

[Art0ir]

You know, I'm glad to see Greece looking after their interests and waving their Mediterranean suntanned cocks at the Troika.

Were the EU to have remained as a free trade area and countries continued to prioritise national interest, the bloc may not be trapped in deflation and recession.

[anonymous-user]

PRESS RELEASE 4 February 2015 - Eligibility of Greek bonds used as collateral in Eurosystem monetary policy operations

ECB’s Governing Council lifts current waiver of minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic

Suspension is in line with existing Eurosystem rules, since it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review

Suspension has no impact on counterparty status of Greek financial institutions

Liquidity needs of affected Eurosystem counterparties can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, in line with Eurosystem rules

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) today decided to lift the waiver affecting marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic. The waiver allowed these instruments to be used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations despite the fact that they did not fulfil minimum credit rating requirements. The Governing Council decision is based on the fact that it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review and is in line with existing Eurosystem rules.

This decision does not bear consequences for the counterparty status of Greek financial institutions in monetary policy operations.

Liquidity needs of Eurosystem counterparties, for counterparties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Eurosystem rules.

The instruments in question will cease to be eligible as collateral as of the maturity of the current main refinancing operation (11 February 2015).

For media queries, please contact William Lelieveldt, tel.: [phone].

[Mermaid]

Rattled stock markets

[Andy Zarse]

Well there's a lesson to Syriza! Elections change nothing, it's the ECB saying "it's my way or the highway..." They have been shown the door, it's up to them now.

[Steffan]

Andy Zarse said:

Well there's a lesson to Syriza! Elections change nothing, it's the ECB saying "it's my way or the highway..." They have been shown the door, it's up to them now.

I agree with the comments Andy Zarse who rightly says that Greece is on desperate trouble and with Mermaid, as ever eyes on the markets, who advises us that the markets are rattled. I am not surprised as I said a few hours ago the actions of Greece in dumping the sales iof the ports which were a central part of the way in which debts cold be repaid agreed with the EU, I really could not see how Greece could actually continue within the EU following these changes made unannounced and withou consultation.

Warm words and striding about the stages of the political world has its place in modern politics. Not one that I personally like. But visible slaps in the face to the lenders we're always a very high risk strategy. It would seem that the EU agree.

As been said before, " Actions speak louder than words". The absolute disregard of discussions with the EU before making such fundamental changes clearly meant a lot more to the EU than the warm words and the proffered verbal compliments and promises offered by the Greek politicians. It would seem that unless the Greek government reverses ithese latest policies default of Greece is inevitable. I cannot see how th Greek Central Bank can manage the liquidity crisis that must surely follow this announcement. Nor can I see how the Greek government can resolve this problem. Greek defaul looms, I think.

[YankeePorker]

Whatever you think of the crazy preppers on ZH, this doom laden article give a good perspective of what the consequences of the ECB's move might be:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/ecb-pulls...

[tumble dryer]

JPJPJP said:

PRESS RELEASE 4 February 2015 - Eligibility of Greek bonds used as collateral in Eurosystem monetary policy operations

ECB’s Governing Council lifts current waiver of minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic

Suspension is in line with existing Eurosystem rules, since it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review

Suspension has no impact on counterparty status of Greek financial institutions

Liquidity needs of affected Eurosystem counterparties can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, in line with Eurosystem rules

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) today decided to lift the waiver affecting marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic. The waiver allowed these instruments to be used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations despite the fact that they did not fulfil minimum credit rating requirements. The Governing Council decision is based on the fact that it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review and is in line with existing Eurosystem rules.

This decision does not bear consequences for the counterparty status of Greek financial institutions in monetary policy operations.

Liquidity needs of Eurosystem counterparties, for counterparties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Eurosystem rules.

The instruments in question will cease to be eligible as collateral as of the maturity of the current main refinancing operation (11 February 2015).

For media queries, please contact William Lelieveldt, tel.: [phone].

I'm old, slow and obviously a bit thick. I also struggle with deliberate confuso-speak.

Could someone explain this in Simples to me please?

Thanks.

TD

[Andy Zarse]

It's the ECB saying they won't accept any more Greek govt debt as collateral against providing banking liquidity. The next move is Syriza's I think...

[anonymous-user]

tumble dryer said:

I'm old, slow and obviously a bit thick. I also struggle with deliberate confuso-speak.

Could someone explain this in Simples to me please?

Thanks.

TD

In order to borrow money from the ECB banks must post 'eligible collateral', generally EU Government bonds as a guarantee. Greek government bonds arn't really worth the paper they are written on but in order to all remain BFF's the ECB has until now made an exception and accepted Greek government bonds as collateral for these loans. It's tightening the noose. As Andy says, next move Greece.

[Andy Zarse]

Some low key comment from Bloomberg...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/...

[tumble dryer]

Andy, yourself, Steffan et all have a far greater degree of understanding of WTF's going on here than I have, (respect, and to the rest of the usual contributors). But here's how I see things - admittedly simplistically.

If I were tasked from the inside (current elected government) and I wasn't allowed a reasonable and actually possible workable/sustainable solution for the country that elected me, and obviously where my heart lay, then I'd be forced to look elsewhere to ensure the real existence/survival of my country.

Forget what's gone before. (I know that's flippant, but) I'd have to deal with the here and now.

Personally I'd stop the Round the World tour and invite Vlad for dinner.

There are levers being applied that, to me, are utterly disgraceful. The EU knew exactly what they were getting when Greece was invited to join the EU; just the same as when banks extend credit knowing that they'll likely pick up the assets in a fire sale a few years down the road.


There will be other governments watching, but more importantly the people that elect those governments. This won't end well for the EU, bully-boy tactics rarely do in the long term.

Simples, I know, but that's my take...

TD

[Andy Zarse]

No you're quite right, so don't do yourself down; you definitely "get it".

The only thing I'd query is inviting Vlad for dinner. Not a good idea just now. The problem is he'll turn up, eat all the food then refuse to pay. "Sorry left my wallet at home, frightfully embarrassing old boy, I'm a bit short me'self at the moment" etc. That kind of thing.

Also this will ps off Uncle Sam, and doing that never really got people anywhere.