Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
EskimoArapaho said:
It seems that the cool-as-tzatziki Varoufakis, may have miscalculated.
Someone digging into his old Twitterings found this: https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1706550...
What? I can't connect to tSomeone digging into his old Twitterings found this: https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1706550...
tter at work.loafer123 said:
EskimoArapaho said:
It seems that the cool-as-tzatziki Varoufakis, may have miscalculated.
Someone digging into his old Twitterings found this: https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1706550...
What? I can't connect to tSomeone digging into his old Twitterings found this: https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1706550...
tter at work.17 Feb 2012
I hope he's reading up on Chapter 2.3 - Devaluation with redenomination.
http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/images/WolfsonPri...
http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/images/WolfsonPri...
A great take on proceedings by economist Francis Coppola, I commend this as excellent lunchtime reading:
http://coppolacomment.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/what-...
http://coppolacomment.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/what-...
Andy Zarse said:
A great take on proceeding by economist Francis Coppola
http://coppolacomment.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/what-...
http://coppolacomment.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/what-...
Coppola said:
The ECB is acting far beyond its mandate in seeking to influence negotiations between Eurozone member states regarding the terms and conditions under which member states lend to their distressed partners. It has no business interfering in fiscal policy: if the Greek government decides to run 1.5% fiscal surpluses instead of 4.5%, hike minimum wages and create lots of government jobs, it is none of the ECB's business. The ECB's monetary policy failures are legion: it should put its own house in order, rather than interfering with the conduct of fiscal policy. And worse, its persistent interference in fiscal policy is a clear conflict of interest, as the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice noted in relation to the OMT programme. It should not be a member of the Troika at all, and certainly should not use changes in fiscal policy by a democratically-elected sovereign government - even one that has inherited an economy in tatters with a massive debt burden - as justification for limiting liquidity to that country's banking system. Monetary policy should never be used to serve fiscal or political ends. Not ever.
As per a previous post...make up rules, break rules, smarm, carry on.turbobloke said:
As per a previous post...make up rules, break rules, smarm, carry on.
Well we know the EU is a bully. Did he expect any different and does he have a Plan B? It's like MAD - his weapon is defaulting on >300bn euro - but he has to be prepared to use it to make it credible.turbobloke said:
fido said:
turbobloke said:
As per a previous post...make up rules, break rules, smarm, carry on.
Well we know the EU is a bully. Coppola said:
Is it possible that this is not an antagonistic move at all, from Greece's point of view? Could it be that far from kicking Greece, the ECB's real target is Germany? For some time now, it has been evident that Draghi is no fan of Germany's "Austerity Forever" stance. Pressuring Germany into negotiating might be his intention.
When I posted yesterday that I could not see how Greece could continue to proffer remaining within the EU and at the same time renage on the very policies and agreements with the EU which might enable them to maintain those agreements and therefore in reality, actuallyrepay their debts. It was this blatant fundamental and deliberate dichotomy between actions and words in the latest Greek approach to this that made me confirm that I could not see how Greece could act like this and remain within the EU.
I would ask the question, what is the game plan of the Greeks? From all that I can see I think getting the greatest possible personal media exposure and profile on the international stage strutting has to be the primary objective of Syriza. This nonsense cannot be good for Greece or the Greek people but from the first opening statements by Syriza post election that has been my primary concern. Modern politics has become a game for the players to do very well out of personally. I cannot see anything in this dramatic round of international hand pressing except personal exposure for the players. Modern politics is becoming very rewarding junket for a very few people in politics. No hope at all for the electorate and Taxpayers then!
To my mind the phrase that sums up the whole approach of Syriza in this mess is that of Sir Wakter Scott who wrote "Oh what a tangled webs we weave, when we first practice to deceive". There is as far as I can see no future in this at all for the poor Greeks facing life in a desperately poor country without very much hope at all. Stage strutting is all very well but it has not done much here! Except give the players publicity.
It would seem the die has been cast by the EU. Either the Grreks return to the original agreement undertakings and introduce the appropriate policies to repay the debt, or the Greeks head into financial disaster with a run on their banks that the Greek government cannot afford to fund. The ECB and the EU have structured this so that there is time for the Greeks to retun to the fold. Will they do so? I cannot see how Syriza can renage on their policies and return to the austerity package. My bet is that Greece will fall away from the EU. Very difficult to say what is the best policy for Greece. This is a desperately serious difficulty for Greece.
I have read the comments of others on here with interest and in the process gained a lot of information from the many, many knowledgebe postings on here. I would be interested to know how the contributors see this matter panning out? It would seem that for some days at least the Greeks will have time to consider their position. But once the consequences become apparent to the markets, not for very long, I suspect. What is the view of the all contributors on here? I honestly think that there is as much knowledge expressed on here as there is in the mainstream media. Frequently more knowledge.
This seem to me to be very probably the most serious financial crisis seen in modern Europe post WWII. If Greece defaults the consequences will be possibly catestrophic to Greece and very serious to the other Euro members. What do others make of ths business, please? Such events cannot be seen often, perhaps fortunately. Over to PH!
I would ask the question, what is the game plan of the Greeks? From all that I can see I think getting the greatest possible personal media exposure and profile on the international stage strutting has to be the primary objective of Syriza. This nonsense cannot be good for Greece or the Greek people but from the first opening statements by Syriza post election that has been my primary concern. Modern politics has become a game for the players to do very well out of personally. I cannot see anything in this dramatic round of international hand pressing except personal exposure for the players. Modern politics is becoming very rewarding junket for a very few people in politics. No hope at all for the electorate and Taxpayers then!
To my mind the phrase that sums up the whole approach of Syriza in this mess is that of Sir Wakter Scott who wrote "Oh what a tangled webs we weave, when we first practice to deceive". There is as far as I can see no future in this at all for the poor Greeks facing life in a desperately poor country without very much hope at all. Stage strutting is all very well but it has not done much here! Except give the players publicity.
It would seem the die has been cast by the EU. Either the Grreks return to the original agreement undertakings and introduce the appropriate policies to repay the debt, or the Greeks head into financial disaster with a run on their banks that the Greek government cannot afford to fund. The ECB and the EU have structured this so that there is time for the Greeks to retun to the fold. Will they do so? I cannot see how Syriza can renage on their policies and return to the austerity package. My bet is that Greece will fall away from the EU. Very difficult to say what is the best policy for Greece. This is a desperately serious difficulty for Greece.
I have read the comments of others on here with interest and in the process gained a lot of information from the many, many knowledgebe postings on here. I would be interested to know how the contributors see this matter panning out? It would seem that for some days at least the Greeks will have time to consider their position. But once the consequences become apparent to the markets, not for very long, I suspect. What is the view of the all contributors on here? I honestly think that there is as much knowledge expressed on here as there is in the mainstream media. Frequently more knowledge.
This seem to me to be very probably the most serious financial crisis seen in modern Europe post WWII. If Greece defaults the consequences will be possibly catestrophic to Greece and very serious to the other Euro members. What do others make of ths business, please? Such events cannot be seen often, perhaps fortunately. Over to PH!
RYH64E said:
GThere's an interesting quote in the Telegraph from the Greek Finance Minister, Yaris Varoufakis, who compared his country to a jobless worker with a mortgage,"Would you give him another loan so that he can make payments on his house? That cannot work. I'm the Finance Minister of a bankrupt country." Which is all perfectly true, but inconsistent with their pre-election pledge to reject austerity. In reality, a jobless man with a mortgage has a very bleak future unless he gets another job very quickly, his house will be repossessed and his assets sold to pay off his creditors.
I get the bankrupt bit, and the futility of more loans, I just can't see the route to 'reject austerity', and that's the reason Greece voted for Syriza in the first place.
There's always the unprecedented possibility that they won't deliver on their pre-election promises! I get the bankrupt bit, and the futility of more loans, I just can't see the route to 'reject austerity', and that's the reason Greece voted for Syriza in the first place.
Andy Zarse said:
turbobloke said:
fido said:
turbobloke said:
As per a previous post...make up rules, break rules, smarm, carry on.
Well we know the EU is a bully. fblm said:
There's always the unprecedented possibility that they won't deliver on their pre-election promises!
Never been known as you say, so no.Sorry to be OT!
The four of us all got roofied that night and have no idea how we got home. The only harm done was a £2k credit card bill and no bodily harm (that anyone would admit). It's made for a pretty good story over the years.
R.e. Greece. Was talking to a former colleague the other day as he is from Greece and his family have lots of business interests out there. He is 28 and says that everyone he went to school with is now living in the UK or Germany. The non financial consequences of this are going to be felt for decades and are clearly only going to magnify the problems for Greece.
GlenMH said:
Andrew[MG] said:
Are you the Glen that we (4 Scottish boys) met when out in Japan for the football?
Yup!R.e. Greece. Was talking to a former colleague the other day as he is from Greece and his family have lots of business interests out there. He is 28 and says that everyone he went to school with is now living in the UK or Germany. The non financial consequences of this are going to be felt for decades and are clearly only going to magnify the problems for Greece.
Edited by Andrew[MG] on Thursday 5th February 14:44
Andrew[MG] said:
Sorry to be OT!
The four of us all got roofied that night and have no idea how we got home. The only harm done was a £2k credit card bill and no bodily harm (that anyone would admit). It's made for a pretty good story over the years.
Did you find a tiger in the bathroom? One of you lost a tooth maybe?GlenMH said:
Andrew[MG] said:
Are you the Glen that we (4 Scottish boys) met when out in Japan for the football?
Yup!Walford said:
Since I have no knowledge of intonational finance, could someone explain how the Baltic states broke away from the USSR, and why with the help of other larger nations Greece could not return to their own currency
Anything is possible, no reason they couldn't return to a new drachma. But why would 'other larger nations' help them? They arn't exactly making a good case for investment right now.In the link to zerohedge posted earlier in this thread, there was a photo of Varoufakis travelling economy class in Lufthansa en-route to Germany. At least he seems to be practicing what he preaches. It brings to mind the contrast when the 3 CEO's from Motown, all travelled to Washington in individual private jets, to beg Congress for a bail out.
Andy Zarse said:
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
Merp said:
It looks like ive got alot of reading to do.
I'm planning on transferring alot of money from the Austrian account back to the UK.
Its fairly new to me, and i really dont want to lose out on bank exchange rates.
Fuel is 1.05euros per litre here though - so ive got that going for me!
We regularly transfer Euros to GBP, let me know and I can put you in touch with the FX firm we use. It's far cheaper than going through the bank, who will probably tuck you up like a kipper!I'm planning on transferring alot of money from the Austrian account back to the UK.
Its fairly new to me, and i really dont want to lose out on bank exchange rates.
Fuel is 1.05euros per litre here though - so ive got that going for me!
PS we use TORfx, they're very efficient.
Is it possible that the Germans are beginning to wonder whether they can hold out for long enough with poor markets in many areas of their "home" territory (Europe) as well as larger external partners (Russia for example ...)
What if they had decided they could make things work for 5 years or so of others' austerity and thus reduced demand for German goods with good times after that but now are starting to realise that they are looking at 10 or 15 years of poor markets across more like 50% of their "Home" market alone.
That could kill their profits.
In a fully federal EU the problem would be about making local budgets work and how to support them. In an partially federal EU it's about sovereign politics. Much less controllable.
They need Greeks (et al) to be buying "German" cars. They need Greek ports to be refurbished with German (rather than Chinese) technology. And so on.
Repeat for Spain, Italy and the rest.
There are many piece s still left on the chess board. IMO.
Germany may suddenly find it needs to be thinking more in Federal mode than it seems to have been doing despite the lack of singularity in politics and financial matters.
What if they had decided they could make things work for 5 years or so of others' austerity and thus reduced demand for German goods with good times after that but now are starting to realise that they are looking at 10 or 15 years of poor markets across more like 50% of their "Home" market alone.
That could kill their profits.
In a fully federal EU the problem would be about making local budgets work and how to support them. In an partially federal EU it's about sovereign politics. Much less controllable.
They need Greeks (et al) to be buying "German" cars. They need Greek ports to be refurbished with German (rather than Chinese) technology. And so on.
Repeat for Spain, Italy and the rest.
There are many piece s still left on the chess board. IMO.
Germany may suddenly find it needs to be thinking more in Federal mode than it seems to have been doing despite the lack of singularity in politics and financial matters.
Merp said:
Andy Zarse said:
RYH64E said:
Andy Zarse said:
Merp said:
It looks like ive got alot of reading to do.
I'm planning on transferring alot of money from the Austrian account back to the UK.
Its fairly new to me, and i really dont want to lose out on bank exchange rates.
Fuel is 1.05euros per litre here though - so ive got that going for me!
We regularly transfer Euros to GBP, let me know and I can put you in touch with the FX firm we use. It's far cheaper than going through the bank, who will probably tuck you up like a kipper!I'm planning on transferring alot of money from the Austrian account back to the UK.
Its fairly new to me, and i really dont want to lose out on bank exchange rates.
Fuel is 1.05euros per litre here though - so ive got that going for me!
PS we use TORfx, they're very efficient.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 5th February 14:51
fblm said:
Walford said:
Since I have no knowledge of international finance, could someone explain how the Baltic states broke away from the USSR, and why with the help of other larger nations Greece could not return to their own currency
Anything is possible, no reason they couldn't return to a new drachma. But why would 'other larger nations' help them? They arn't exactly making a good case for investment right now.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff