Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[anonymous-user]

Walford said:

fblm said:

Walford said:

Since I have no knowledge of international finance, could someone explain how the Baltic states broke away from the USSR, and why with the help of other larger nations Greece could not return to their own currency

Anything is possible, no reason they couldn't return to a new drachma. But why would 'other larger nations' help them? They arn't exactly making a good case for investment right now.

To Get rid of them without it spreading to other PIGS

Cut off the gangrenous limb so it doesn't infect the others? There is some validity in that, however if Greece is let go with support from the bigger countries and they make a decent go of it and come out all smiles... who's next? With anti EU parties gaining traction all over Europe and no sign of an end to youth unemployment and stangnant growth, the last thing the EZ wants is to create a nice template for leaving. No, if Greece leave the EU will want them, need them, crushed. Not nice. I don't think there are any 'good' options at this point. For all the grief we, myself included, give the politicians for the endless can kicking, it might well be the least worst option.

[YankeePorker]

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate. They were elected on promises to reduce austerity and negotiate debt forgiveness, but supposedly 75% of the Greek population want to stay in the € zone. So if they force their hand to the point of looking like leaving the €, there might well be a backlash back home.

How would they deal with that, run a referendum on continued € zone membership?

[anonymous-user]

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

[Andy Zarse]

Merp said:

Just checked TORfx thanks! I need to move a bit more than they advertise, but that can be discussed.

I'll drop you a PM and tell you who I deal with.

[SilverSixer]

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

I rather think many people do. Look at the way the Great British Public seems to be under the impression that the LibDems should apparently have implemented their entire manifesto despite coming third in the last election and being a very junior partner in a coalition dominated by the country's largest legal bullying organisation.

[anonymous-user]

SilverSixer said:

I rather think many people do. Look at the way the Great British Public seems to be under the impression that the LibDems should apparently have implemented their entire manifesto despite coming third in the last election and being a very junior partner in a coalition dominated by the country's largest legal bullying organisation.

Very good point. I suppose it is a good thing most people are not as pessimistic as me!

[Steffan]

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg and Milliband and Balls being three current awful examples in British politics. I would not trust a single word any of them utters since it will be self seving politospeak bks. Promise everything electors are hoping for and ensure personal aggrandisement above all else being their approach. Quite where we go from here I know not but "Never, ever trust the Government" remains my advice. Modern politicians are just getting worse and worse: utterly self concerned and more and more self obsessed and self serving.

[SilverSixer]

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done? Assassinated Cameron and installed himself as Supreme Dictator? He was never going to get much of what he wanted through Parliament.

[anonymous-user]

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg and Milliband and Balls being three current awful examples in British politics. I would not trust a single word any of them utters since it will be self seving politospeak bks. Promise everything electors are hoping for and ensure personal aggrandisement above all else being their approach. Quite where we go from here I know not but "Never, ever trust the Government" remains my advice. Modern politicians are just getting worse and worse: utterly self concerned and more and more self obsessed and self serving.

You might as well add Cameron to that list.

There is NO serving politician I can think of who I would trust to tell me the truth.

[Steffan]

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done? Assassinated Cameron and installed himself as Supreme Dictator? He was never going to get much of what he wanted through Parliament.

Just review the promises Coegg made in the election that resulted in a coalition and the number broken by Clegg in government. I never thought those polices were realistic and nor presumably did Nick Clegg. Outright liars have no place in modern politics. Politicians are too adept at warm words and then looking after themselves whilst their warm words prove to be hot air.

[SilverSixer]

Steffan said:

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done? Assassinated Cameron and installed himself as Supreme Dictator? He was never going to get much of what he wanted through Parliament.

Just review the promises Coegg made in the election that resulted in a coalition and the number broken by Clegg in government. I never thought those polices were realistic and nor presumably did Nick Clegg. Outright liars have no place in modern politics. Politicians are too adept at warm words and then looking after themselves whilst their warm words prove to be hot air.

Clegg didn't win the election. What makes you think he had any chance of implementing what he wanted? That he has achieved anything at all is commendable. And he has.

[RYH64E]

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done? Assassinated Cameron and installed himself as Supreme Dictator? He was never going to get much of what he wanted through Parliament.

Just review the promises Coegg made in the election that resulted in a coalition and the number broken by Clegg in government. I never thought those polices were realistic and nor presumably did Nick Clegg. Outright liars have no place in modern politics. Politicians are too adept at warm words and then looking after themselves whilst their warm words prove to be hot air.

Clegg didn't win the election. What makes you think he had any chance of implementing what he wanted? That he has achieved anything at all is commendable. And he has.

After the next election 'getting Clegged' could enter the language as a new term meaning 'complete electoral disaster'.

LibDems are made for opposition not government, in opposition they can make all kinds of outlandish commitments safe in the knowledge that they're never going to have to make good on them, unfortunately government is more about pragmatism than principles.

[Steffan]

RYH64E said:

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

SilverSixer said:

Steffan said:

fblm said:

YankeePorker said:

One problem with the gamesmanship of Syriza is their mandate.

I think like almost every political party everywhere they are about to discover that the political and economic realities of office are rather different to the campaign trail. Besides does anyone, anywhere still expect politicians to actually do what they have promised?

Certainly I do not expect anything constructive from modern politicians. The likes of Nick Clegg

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done? Assassinated Cameron and installed himself as Supreme Dictator? He was never going to get much of what he wanted through Parliament.

Just review the promises Coegg made in the election that resulted in a coalition and the number broken by Clegg in government. I never thought those polices were realistic and nor presumably did Nick Clegg. Outright liars have no place in modern politics. Politicians are too adept at warm words and then looking after themselves whilst their warm words prove to be hot air.

Clegg didn't win the election. What makes you think he had any chance of implementing what he wanted? That he has achieved anything at all is commendable. And he has.

After the next election 'getting Clegged' could enter the language as a new term meaning 'complete electoral disaster'.

LibDems are made for opposition not government, in opposition they can make all kinds of outlandish commitments safe in the knowledge that they're never going to have to make good on them, unfortunately government is more about pragmatism than principles.

I agree. Modern government and modern politics is entirely concerned with the elected making sure they are well served and very wealthy and secure. If they have any time left they might actually consider the occasional policy. Regrettably very few can find the time because they look after No 1.

[YankeePorker]

garyhun said:

You might as well add Cameron to that list.

There is NO serving politician I can think of who I would trust to tell me the truth.

Funny to say it given the current situation and the context of this discussion, but the one senior EU politician that I do have some respect for is Merkel. I think that she's smart, thinks before she acts and actually puts the interests of her country as her priority, rather than being solely on a mission of self-aggrandisement.

[anonymous-user]

SilverSixer said:

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done?

Nothing. Ever. That's the point. Complete waste of space who somehow is Deputy PM. It says rather a lot about the quality of the rest of them.

[Walford]

fblm said:

SilverSixer said:

And there it is. What exactly was Clegg supposed to have done?

Nothing. Ever. That's the point. Complete waste of space who somehow is Deputy PM. It says rather a lot about the quality of the rest of them.

Lets find out

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

,

[cardigankid]

LongQ said:

Is it possible that the Germans are beginning to wonder whether they can hold out for long enough with poor markets in many areas of their "home" territory (Europe) as well as larger external partners (Russia for example ...)


What if they had decided they could make things work for 5 years or so of others' austerity and thus reduced demand for German goods with good times after that but now are starting to realise that they are looking at 10 or 15 years of poor markets across more like 50% of their "Home" market alone....

They need Greeks (et al) to be buying "German" cars. They need Greek ports to be refurbished with German (rather than Chinese) technology. And so on.

Repeat for Spain, Italy and the rest.

There are many piece s still left on the chess board. IMO.

Germany may suddenly find it needs to be thinking more in Federal mode than it seems to have been doing despite the lack of singularity in politics and financial matters.

Can you imagine how competitive German exports are with the Euro at its current levels - and a new Porsche is still cheaper in the UK than it is in Germany. This isn't about selling to the Greeks and the Spaniards, this is about selling to the world. Still think that the loss of Greece to the EU, as well as all the financial upheaval, is unaffordable, so I'm still betting on a deal being struck. The only thing the Greeks will have to do is get the public spending under some kind of control, and come up with a mechanism to get their tourist industry working. Germans can't afford to holiday there. Something not right?

[Steffan]

cardigankid said:

LongQ said:

Is it possible that the Germans are beginning to wonder whether they can hold out for long enough with poor markets in many areas of their "home" territory (Europe) as well as larger external partners (Russia for example ...)


What if they had decided they could make things work for 5 years or so of others' austerity and thus reduced demand for German goods with good times after that but now are starting to realise that they are looking at 10 or 15 years of poor markets across more like 50% of their "Home" market alone....

They need Greeks (et al) to be buying "German" cars. They need Greek ports to be refurbished with German (rather than Chinese) technology. And so on.

Repeat for Spain, Italy and the rest.

There are many piece s still left on the chess board. IMO.

Germany may suddenly find it needs to be thinking more in Federal mode than it seems to have been doing despite the lack of singularity in politics and financial matters.

Can you imagine how competitive German exports are with the Euro at its current levels - and a new Porsche is still cheaper in the UK than it is in Germany. This isn't about selling to the Greeks and the Spaniards, this is about selling to the world. Still think that the loss of Greece to the EU, as well as all the financial upheaval, is unaffordable, so I'm still betting on a deal being struck. The only thing the Greeks will have to do is get the public spending under some kind of control, and come up with a mechanism to get their tourist industry working. Germans can't afford to holiday there. Something not right?

You may right. Certainly I would hope the EU make the efforts to seriously assess the efforts of the Greek government before making any final decision.

Robert Peston had waded in with this see: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31148199.

It would seem to me that the actions of the EU are a direct response to the Greek decision to abandoned the agreed sales and attempting to rise Greek pensions again without consultation, warning or discussion. Perhaps understandable but Greece has entered a contract with the EU and now unilaterally breached the terms of that agreement. I cannot see how Greece can repay these debts but nor can I see that making matters materially worse by reneging on prior agreements is going to help.

Greece is in difficulty because Greece has borrowed and spent more than Greece can afford to repay. The problem of repayment is essentially a problem for Greece. Merkel has repeatedly advised that no further debts will be written off. In which case how are Greece going to repay the debt, must surely be essentially a problem for Greeks? I do think the warm words and radically altered agreement by the Greek government has not helped the cause of Greece. However powerful the pleading, if Merkel and Co are determined that there will be no further debt write off then there will be no further debt write off for Greece. It would appear to me that Merkel and Co are adamant that there will be no further write off for Greek debt.

To my mind however much the EU would like to help Greece the Domino effect of agreeing yet further cuts to the Greek debt is the real stumbling block now. If the EU were to agree further debt cuts literally years into an agreed program, questions would immediately arise as to whether in reality the debtor actually really intended and could afford to pay the debts. That the EU cannot accept and in consequence it seems to me that the EU will now hold the line that Greece stands by its agreement as the only solution. I personally doubt if Greece can in fact achieve that but the EU are not going to accept any more write off of failing Sovereign debts I would suggest,

Down to Greece alone I woud suggest, which is why my view is that Greece will default. What happens then is a whole new ball game but I cannot see how this serious a further debt crisis, this far into a structured repayment program by a Sovereign State can be anything other than very bad news for the little remaining credibility in the EU notion that this is a solved problem. Looks a real problem still, to me. I can only see default approaching.

[YankeePorker]

Steffan said:

The problem of repayment is essentially a problem for Greece.

Given the 100s of billions of € of debt that they have, the problem of repayment is a problem for the lenders too. Even if the pariah state consequences will be unpleasant, the Greeks could walk away from that debt and land the problem on the ECB, that would then want to talk to the original lending banks about this big hole in its finances. The economic ramifications would be messy, so the Greeks still hold a pretty strong poker hand in my opinion.

[anonymous-user]

YankeePorker said:

Steffan said:

The problem of repayment is essentially a problem for Greece.

Given the 100s of billions of € of debt that they have, the problem of repayment is a problem for the lenders too.

Quite. Owe the bank 100 grand and they've got you by the balls, owe the bank 100 million and you've got them by the balls.