Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
REALIST123 said:
allergictocheese said:
The EU should bite the bullet and allow/force Greece to exit and show that it is not weak. If they weren't prepared to make that decision, they shouldn't have lent Greece the money in the first place.
The single currency was expanded too far too fast and now everyone is having to pay for it.
Ignoring your last, rather obvious, sentence, how then will they deal with Portugal, Ireland and all the other lame ducks? Once one goes the whole house of cards starts to crumble, which is why Greece is still being allowed to hang on by the skin of it's decaying teeth. The single currency was expanded too far too fast and now everyone is having to pay for it.
I think the consequences to the other failing States within the EU and the overall damage that any member state leaving by default through insolvency, would inevitaby cause the whole concept of the EU to be called into question and would immediately threaten the other failing states. The EU might be able to cover the damage at huge cost and keep the nonsense flowing with their QE money wasting efforts. However I have my doubts about that once the reality of that continuance being achievable once the cat is really let out of the bag, which any state defauting through insolvency would higlight all too clearly.
The massive losses and immediate consequences to confidance within the other insolvent states and huge resentment and sense of wrongdoing within the Solvent states would become very apparent and this would immediately be visible to all. That is why the EU is fighting tooth and nail to hold this together and that is why Billions are being waste on holding failing states within the EU. However, I do believe that despite the Billions wasted, the EU has no longer held the confidence of the markets and the media that this is actualy a workable solution. If it was then the problems of Greece would be improving. Instead they are visibly worsening. Bythe day. The crunch is coming despite the efforts of the EU.
Personally I have serious doubts that Germany can actually keep the various factions within Germany on board securely for much longer. The huge losses that are going to end up for the solvent States to pay directly as a result of this nonsense are simply not going to acceptable to the electorate of those solvent States IMO. I cannot see how this latest "Solution" can possibly last for any time and the longer this has gone on the more obvious the dishonestly involved within the EU has become apparent. I would expect significant unrest within the German state concerning the way in which their wealth is being fiddled abd reduced to keep this nonsense afloat. No one has asked the German people if they want to pay for this Greek nonsense because the EU realise there would be a resounding NO! I therefore think this is coming to an end.
Interesting article From the BBC and not from R Peston (for a change) I have noted the complaints!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31554756
Time for thought I think. There is nothing good coming out of the EU for the solvent states I fear. I do appreciate the efforts of the many, many posters on here who have contributed greatly with their opinions. The contributions from RYH64E, Mr Whippy, Turbobloke, Mermaid, DJRC, REALISTIC123, Andy Zarse, Irish, hidetheelephants, ArtDir, Gargamel, LongQ, fbfm, Digga, Claudia Skies, AndrewMG, Wiils2, Aston Zagato, telford mike, Dave Poth, confused buyer, all in no particular order, and the many many others who have posted on here have been most informative. Frequently amusing and very sharp. I thank you all for those conrtibutions and the observations have been most welcome.
Whatever the EU and Greece agree now this matter has gone way beyond the ability of both the EU and Greece to actually manage the problem. Clearly by any reasonable assessement Greece cannot recover solvency in the dreadful position that Greece has fallen to as a result of this nonsense. Such representations are just arrant nonsense. If there was the slightest evidence of the slightest recovery in Greece then the position might be redeemable. The antics by Syriza seem to me to be guaranteed not to assist recovery by Greece in any way. Sadly yet another left wing government for whom buying votes with nonsense policies is the primary concern.
In reality Greece has fallen further and further into economic penury as each announcement has been made by the EU, over the years. Each time the EU has declared that Greece would be saved, whilst holding Greece within an unaffordable currency. Just a matter of time therefore, before Greece falls out of the EU because Greece was never ever able to recover economic strength within the EU. Greece is even even more if a mess financially now. As the results irrefutably confirm. What happens then? Now that is certainly another interesting question, regrettably fraught with difficult for Greece and their creditors. But this nonsense is going to fail. Big time.
So Greece's solution is to crack down on tax evasion. Let me guess how this will work - increase public spending, which will definitely cost shed loads of money - balanced by increased tax revenue, unknown income. They haven't managed to increase their tax take for years; so why will this new plan work. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31574868
Borghetto said:
They haven't managed to increase their tax take for years; so why will this new plan work.
Is that the actual tax take or some percentage? Obviously their economy has deflated by a huge amount (forget the figures but over 25%) so even if the tax take is up in % terms - they are screwed anyway. They need to grow their economy and implement a better tax regime - which to be fair to their leather-coated finance minister is what they were asking the Troika to consider.fido said:
Is that the actual tax take or some percentage? Obviously their economy has deflated by a huge amount (forget the figures but over 25%) so even if the tax take is up in % terms - they are screwed anyway. They need to grow their economy and implement a better tax regime - which to be fair to their leather-coated finance minister is what they were asking the Troika to consider.
However when Germany offered to provide 500 trained tax inspectors to assist in collecting taxes they were refused.Borghetto said:
fido said:
Troika
How dare you use that word - the new name is 'Institutions'.That being "Change the Name the Game is the Same and Co limited". Of course there never are any real changes the object is to continue the fraud. Describes this nonsense perfectly IMO as if changing the description can hide the fraud. I think not! Never could, never has and never will.
There have been will be no worthwhile changes to the Greek economy, there will be no worthwhie changes to the Greek economy, the fraud will continue and the EU will knowingly continue to bail out a hopessly insolvent country. The size of the overall losses will be increased by the Billions more QE Euros being wasted by the EU currently on this. All the money spent of far has already gone.
Greece cannot repay these debts, Greece never could repay these debts from the start of this nonsense. Greece is even more insolvent now than Greece was three years ago. This is totally irresponsible economic lunacy by the EU who are throwing the EU taxpayers money about with no possibility of gain or reovery. The EU has engineered a vast loss being met by the solvent economies of the EU with no gain whatsoever for these economies and Greece will slide into abject poverty losing an even bigger amount owed to the EU taxpayers. The money is gone and is never coming back.
This really is not going to end well for the EU or the EU taxpayers. There should and will be hell to pay once the various factions in the solvent economies realise who is actually paying for this disgrace and how this has been allowed. Fraudulent activities within the senior EU Leadership in my view. Utterly disgraceful and I suspect the reputation of the EU and EU leaders will be in tatters once the truth is know. Not long to wait I think.
gruffalo said:
fido said:
Is that the actual tax take or some percentage? Obviously their economy has deflated by a huge amount (forget the figures but over 25%) so even if the tax take is up in % terms - they are screwed anyway. They need to grow their economy and implement a better tax regime - which to be fair to their leather-coated finance minister is what they were asking the Troika to consider.
However when Germany offered to provide 500 trained tax inspectors to assist in collecting taxes they were refused.Intersting exchange in Greece
“Renaming the Troika into Institutions, the Memorandum of Understanding into Agreement and the lenders into partners, you do not change the previous situations as in the case renaming meat into fish.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-22/syriza-me...
“Renaming the Troika into Institutions, the Memorandum of Understanding into Agreement and the lenders into partners, you do not change the previous situations as in the case renaming meat into fish.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-22/syriza-me...
slow_poke said:
"They obviously think it’s better to amputate the leg than let the gangrene spread."David McWilliams, coming over here and stealing our threads metaphors...
slow_poke said:
"No one, apart form the European political elite, really believes in the project."Apart from the applicability of the word elite - which is often abused in these contexts - spot on.
turbobloke said:
slow_poke said:
"No one, apart form the European political elite, really believes in the project."Apart from the applicability of the word elite - which is often abused in these contexts - spot on.
Walford said:
turbobloke said:
slow_poke said:
"No one, apart form the European political elite, really believes in the project."Apart from the applicability of the word elite - which is often abused in these contexts - spot on.
If so then as per Ghosn, the view is probably from one person in the organisation responding to a survey or media question, and it's elastic / reversible. Certainly not to be relied on as an abiding position.
BusinessforBritain said:
1,000 business leaders back EU renegotiation and a referendum as new details about the CBI's EU funding are revealed.
- Over 1,000 business leaders have signed up to Business for Britain
as business support for EU renegotiation and a referendum grows
- Ahead of the CBI conference, new figures suggest that the EU is the
CBI’s largest financial contributor
- Battle lines drawn between business groups, but YouGov polling
shows business leaders support a referendum by 66% to 28%,
backing BfB’s position
- Double page advert in the Sunday Telegraph announces new BfB
signatories and urges other business leaders and groups to back a
referendum
- Over 1,000 business leaders have signed up to Business for Britain
as business support for EU renegotiation and a referendum grows
- Ahead of the CBI conference, new figures suggest that the EU is the
CBI’s largest financial contributor
- Battle lines drawn between business groups, but YouGov polling
shows business leaders support a referendum by 66% to 28%,
backing BfB’s position
- Double page advert in the Sunday Telegraph announces new BfB
signatories and urges other business leaders and groups to back a
referendum
Edited by turbobloke on Monday 23 February 14:30
turbobloke said:
slow_poke said:
"No one, apart form the European political elite, really believes in the project."Apart from the applicability of the word elite - which is often abused in these contexts - spot on.
Recovery for Greece within the EU is impossible. No solvent EU state wants to pick up any of the costs of the Greek collapse and the only "Solution" the EU can find is to lend Greece yet more Billions when Greece is atoready totally unable to pay either the debt or the interest on the existing loans. And this is all post Greek haircut 1,which was this "Solution" was dreamed up by the EU at the time. As the final answer. Got that very very wrong!
I can only see continuing unemployent, continuing abject poverty and continuing widespread penury in Greece direcly as a result of this latest "Solution". With Syriza doing its best to raise the minimum wage and employ lots more government workers. This is never going to work and Greece can only recover by leaving the Euro. Given the problems that this would cause within Greece I can understand the reticence to acknowledge reality by the Greeks. But reality will come and Greece will leave the EU. Because that is the only recovery Greece can achieve without the burden of the unaffordable debts.
Greek entry into the EU was achieve fraudulently with the connivance of the EU politicians. The chickens are coming home to roost. Their is no way Greece can survive within a currency dominated by Germany. The only "Solution" is reality time for Greece and the EU.
Edited by Steffan on Monday 23 February 14:51
Yet another "Haircut". As with any bankrupt person or institution default is the only answer,return to the Drachma is inevitable,how that will balance out with the money lost when adopting the Euro god only knows the true value of the new old currency,having lived in Spain during the adoption of the Euro it was obvious to see the price hikes during the exchange you could pick the price tags off and see the original price just basic commodities such as shopping etc more than doubled in price overnight,some people got very wealthy,always wondered how the shop owner afforded a Rolex!
Greece calls for a time out till tomorrow.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31580138
Any guess at the problem?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31580138
Any guess at the problem?
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff