Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Welshbeef said:
Yep I remember that - back in the 80's and 90's it was all old tat which was charming and what you'd expect then in the early to mid 2000's loads of very new cars everywhere felt like Spain had caught up with the UK in that sense but all they did was tourism and hiked prices due to the Euro being adopted.
Saw that first hand shopkeepers couldn't even be bothered to remove the old labels from the goods in the shops, just stuck the euro one on top even day to day stuff like breakfast cereal doubled and tripled some one got very wealthy in the changeover.911Gary said:
Welshbeef said:
Yep I remember that - back in the 80's and 90's it was all old tat which was charming and what you'd expect then in the early to mid 2000's loads of very new cars everywhere felt like Spain had caught up with the UK in that sense but all they did was tourism and hiked prices due to the Euro being adopted.
Saw that first hand shopkeepers couldn't even be bothered to remove the old labels from the goods in the shops, just stuck the euro one on top even day to day stuff like breakfast cereal doubled and tripled some one got very wealthy in the changeover.I have spent all day running around Athens and in meetings and I am surprised how positive it is. Few people with litle to do and plenty of evidence of spending across the income levels.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
loafer123 said:
I have spent all day running around Athens and in meetings and I am surprised how positive it is. Few people with litle to do and plenty of evidence of spending across the income levels.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Ah.Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Catch 22.
Or is that Article 22?
LongQ said:
loafer123 said:
I have spent all day running around Athens and in meetings and I am surprised how positive it is. Few people with litle to do and plenty of evidence of spending across the income levels.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Ah.Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Catch 22.
Or is that Article 22?
loafer123 said:
I have spent all day running around Athens and in meetings and I am surprised how positive it is. Few people with litle to do and plenty of evidence of spending across the income levels.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
So keep the credit card party going for as long as they can it seems.Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Digga said:
as a unique economic situation. The phenomenon was incredibly interesting, because effectively, the switch to the Euro facilitated huge price inflation which, somehow, was afforded by the population - one must assume through wage increases - and sent a one-off, 'feel-good' ripple through the economy. Surely, in an isolated sovereign currency, this would normally set off all sorts of alarm bells and lead to crushing interest rate hikes? Lession #1 of how the Euro created unwise and usustainable distortions.
Digga I'd never looked at it in that way but that is a great bit of analysis. My understanding of it was they actually had or have dual pricing one for locals one for tourists - weather that is genuine or not I've no idea but I've heard that in Spain Greece Italy and Bulgaria so maybe there is something in it? Which if there is then its really interesting and possibly masked your point about for much longer and as such the gravey boat kept on going. Take Bulgaria they earn c£2-3k a year. However if you have a meal out in any of even the locals places you blow maybe £30-50 for a group of 4-6 (big families out there) just how is it possible to do that?
You also see that every house uses all its exterior land to grow food. Its odd - In the UK imagine everyone/most with front gardens covered in fruit and veg? Even in war time and post war it was only rear gardens which were dug up to help with the rationing/give families more to eat.
Anyway I'm ranting.
Andy Zarse said:
LongQ said:
loafer123 said:
I have spent all day running around Athens and in meetings and I am surprised how positive it is. Few people with litle to do and plenty of evidence of spending across the income levels.
Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Ah.Discussing the potential for Grexit, they properly fear it because they import so much, but know that what Syriza was elected on, they cannot deliver.
Fundamentally this is what it all boils down to - they want to keep the Euro because their standard of living will be much lower without it, but if they keep the Euro ghe Germans will impose that lower standard of living through enforcing austerity measures.
Catch 22.
Or is that Article 22?
I am out of Athens tomorrow and will revert if my view changes.
Well now, here's Cyprus seemingly doing something to help their economy. It involves the Russian Navy using their ports. Maybe more.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31632259
An interesting prospect for the EU and NATO.
Would the Euro survive if political wrangling fragmented Europe?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31632259
An interesting prospect for the EU and NATO.
Would the Euro survive if political wrangling fragmented Europe?
DJRC said:
There wasn't huge inflation at hand over time - it was about 10%. There wasn't really a locals or foreigners thing either apart from the standard dichotomy - and that existed pre Euro in the local currencies. Prices since then have inflated a lot compared to how things had been.
So is this one of the key reasons the med countries are in trouble?Somehow literally overnight upping prices from what are 2nd World countries to 1st world countries without the salaries to back that up.
I recall pre Euro beers (I'd say a generic beer is pretty similar to the McDonalds exchange rate) in Greece/Spain etc being really fractions of what they would cost in the UK plenty of olaces being barely £0.30 a large glass of beer (pre 0.5ltr measures) then it changed it was 1.5 Euros and the following year 2-2.5 Euros which meant at that time pretty much the same price as in the UK/my local.
IHT be an odd and very simplistic view but I'd say it covers it off pretty well.
Now we have minus interest rates for 5 year German govt bonds.... Why are they not exchanging loans with interest for these very good rates.
Welshbeef said:
DJRC said:
There wasn't huge inflation at hand over time - it was about 10%. There wasn't really a locals or foreigners thing either apart from the standard dichotomy - and that existed pre Euro in the local currencies. Prices since then have inflated a lot compared to how things had been.
So is this one of the key reasons the med countries are in trouble?Somehow literally overnight upping prices from what are 2nd World countries to 1st world countries without the salaries to back that up.
I recall pre Euro beers (I'd say a generic beer is pretty similar to the McDonalds exchange rate) in Greece/Spain etc being really fractions of what they would cost in the UK plenty of olaces being barely £0.30 a large glass of beer (pre 0.5ltr measures) then it changed it was 1.5 Euros and the following year 2-2.5 Euros which meant at that time pretty much the same price as in the UK/my local.
IHT be an odd and very simplistic view but I'd say it covers it off pretty well.
Now we have minus interest rates for 5 year German govt bonds.... Why are they not exchanging loans with interest for these very good rates.
Regarding your beer analogy, I saw an interesting statistic the other day. Last year, 30,000 Irish people flew to Greece, the vast majority it must be assumed for their holidays. However, 90,000 Irish went to Turkey, again assume for the same reasons. So Irish folk are willing to fly an extra hour or so for cheaper beer and holidays. It must be assumed other nations are little different to the Irish, except obviously for the French who don't really do holidays in non-French speaking countries.
I also understand tourism currently accounts for c20% of Greek GDP. They'd have that back to 40% in no time if they could find a way of slashing their prices and undercutting Kamal for booze, ciggies and holidays.
Now the question is, we need to think of a way how could they do that... anyone?
A satirical German PoV - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afl9WFGJE0M - funny, but maybe NSFW.
Andy Zarse said:
I also understand tourism currently accounts for c20% of Greek GDP. They'd have that back to 40% in no time if they could find a way of slashing their prices and undercutting Kamal for booze, ciggies and holidays.
Now the question is, we need to think of a way how could they do that... anyone?
The Germans have an alternate method to achieve that. Decimate the rest of the Greek economy.Now the question is, we need to think of a way how could they do that... anyone?
Andy Zarse said:
7 year bund @ 0% today...
Regarding your beer analogy, I saw an interesting statistic the other day. Last year, 30,000 Irish people flew to Greece, the vast majority it must be assumed for their holidays. However, 90,000 Irish went to Turkey, again assume for the same reasons. So Irish folk are willing to fly an extra hour or so for cheaper beer and holidays. It must be assumed other nations are little different to the Irish, except obviously for the French who don't really do holidays in non-French speaking countries.
I also understand tourism currently accounts for c20% of Greek GDP. They'd have that back to 40% in no time if they could find a way of slashing their prices and undercutting Kamal for booze, ciggies and holidays.
Now the question is, we need to think of a way how could they do that... anyone?
Regarding your beer analogy, I saw an interesting statistic the other day. Last year, 30,000 Irish people flew to Greece, the vast majority it must be assumed for their holidays. However, 90,000 Irish went to Turkey, again assume for the same reasons. So Irish folk are willing to fly an extra hour or so for cheaper beer and holidays. It must be assumed other nations are little different to the Irish, except obviously for the French who don't really do holidays in non-French speaking countries.
I also understand tourism currently accounts for c20% of Greek GDP. They'd have that back to 40% in no time if they could find a way of slashing their prices and undercutting Kamal for booze, ciggies and holidays.
Now the question is, we need to think of a way how could they do that... anyone?
The Euro truly has brought harmony and accord to the people of the nations of the Eurozone;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11436...
Not... Greedy Greeks indeed!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11436...
Not... Greedy Greeks indeed!
Andy Zarse said:
The Euro truly has brought harmony and accord to the people of the nations of the Eurozone;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11436...
Not... Greedy Greeks indeed!
The EU powers are not listening, speak louder....http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11436...
Not... Greedy Greeks indeed!
EskimoArapaho said:
A satirical German PoV - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afl9WFGJE0M - funny, but maybe NSFW.
Nice one, perfectly in place in this thread!
Welshbeef...it's a reasonably accurate observation yes. A huuuuge whinge in Italy is a slice of pizza. A standardish staple of Italian lunchtimes is/was a quarter slice of pizza and a drink. The average cost of that is now about 4 Euro. The Italians say that when they went over to the Euro the equivalent cost was basically 50p (I work with Italians who have lived in England previously) for the slice of pizza plus the drink. It basically came to just over 1 Euro for both in equivalent Lira. Come handover the cost was immediately 1.5 Euro. In a decade it's now at 4 Euro.
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