Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
London424 said:
warp9 said:
As a long time lurker on this thread, I have very much enjoyed the discussion and opinions displayed, which gives a much richer source of information and wider views than generally received through main stream media.
I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
I can only see it coming when a government is elected that was based on leaving the EU/Euro. I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
So in France you have Front National, Spain you have Podemos, UK you have UKIP etc. I think that's the only way it's realistically going to happen, other than that it will just keep getting kicked down the road.
PRTVR said:
London424 said:
warp9 said:
As a long time lurker on this thread, I have very much enjoyed the discussion and opinions displayed, which gives a much richer source of information and wider views than generally received through main stream media.
I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
I can only see it coming when a government is elected that was based on leaving the EU/Euro. I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
So in France you have Front National, Spain you have Podemos, UK you have UKIP etc. I think that's the only way it's realistically going to happen, other than that it will just keep getting kicked down the road.
London424 said:
Logically yes...but we've seen that the EU mandarins aren't too logical. I think it would take a German polictical party to get elected (on the basis of not continuing to funnel money to Greece) before anything happens. Merkel has shown that the show must go on!
If Europeans are happy with full federation and the associated, permanent fiscal transfers then that's fine.The problem is no one will say this in the EU.
PRTVR said:
I am not so sure, how long will Germany keep bailing out Greece, there must come a time when it says enough is enough, then with Greece gone and no growth in the rest of the med countries, will it not just be a question of time before a few more leave, if any of the members that have left the Euro start to experience growth, that will signal the end.
It cost the West Germans 2 trillion US$ to bail out the east. I don't think the Greek debt is too crippling for Germany. Also they will try and spread the cost among other Eurozone members. My fear is that they will also try and bail-in the non Eurozone EU members, princupally the UK. This may be Merkel's bargaining chip as a quid pro quo, for acceding to Cameron's demands for changes to the EU. I just don't think UK politicians have the wherewithall to deliver a good deal for our Country.London424 said:
PRTVR said:
London424 said:
warp9 said:
As a long time lurker on this thread, I have very much enjoyed the discussion and opinions displayed, which gives a much richer source of information and wider views than generally received through main stream media.
I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
I can only see it coming when a government is elected that was based on leaving the EU/Euro. I have been of the view as many on here, that the principle of having differently performing economies wrapped up in one currency, the weaker of which are sucked dry and propped up by massive amounts of debt, is bonkers, nothing more than financial recklessness of the highest order, that should at some point come crashing down.
However, now that the recent Syriza negotiations have largely played themselves out to another can kicking exercise, I really can't help but feel that the whole landscape has fundamentally changed (it probably did months, even years ago) and all traditional rules of engagement do not exist any more.
My understanding is that the majority of the population from the failing states do not want to exit the EU or give up the Euro. So no wide scale 'viva la revolucion'. Germany in essence hold the purse strings and the self serving plutocrats will impose states to remain within the union, so little political leverage for exit either. It even seems as though the markets are managed/anticipate these can kicking necessities and deal with financial wobbles.
So my question to those that know more about this than I do, is where exactly will 'the end' come from? What factors or situations will facilitate this? I can't see it any more.
So in France you have Front National, Spain you have Podemos, UK you have UKIP etc. I think that's the only way it's realistically going to happen, other than that it will just keep getting kicked down the road.
)Also, why would any German party want to break things up? They have benefited massively from the situation, even if they do pay some tax dollars to the southern states.
It generally feels like the masses are a bit numb to the whole situation, given the length of time it has gone on, the complexities involved and numbers which are so vast, become meaningless to the average punter. There is also that element of doubt - is it really that bad now, and what the feck would happen if the plug was pulled!? Better the devil you know?
I also wonder what happens when a new party is voted in all full of gusto and brave ideas and visit the relevant bods at the EU. Rather than the BS and spin that is churned out by the media, what big secret black book, the true picture that they are shown, that we will never see....? :silverfoilhat:
It's only on places like here that people seem to either know or care about anything much more than who's winning Strictly Celebrity Bake in the Jungle and whether they can afford the PCP on the latest dronemobile. Other than the occasional tabloid headline most things pass them by. Cynical? Me?
Borghetto said:
It cost the West Germans 2 trillion US$ to bail out the east. I don't think the Greek debt is too crippling for Germany. Also they will try and spread the cost among other Eurozone members. My fear is that they will also try and bail-in the non Eurozone EU members, princupally the UK. This may be Merkel's bargaining chip as a quid pro quo, for acceding to Cameron's demands for changes to the EU. I just don't think UK politicians have the wherewithall to deliver a good deal for our Country.
This, for me, is my single greatest worry regarding the EU that is not being properly discussed in the media. They already mention the interference of teh Eu in UK law and also immigration - the two most popular grudges held by anti-EU types - but this is, theoretically, open-ended.rovermorris999 said:
It's only on places like here that people seem to either know or care about anything much more than who's winning Strictly Celebrity Bake in the Jungle and whether they can afford the PCP on the latest dronemobile. Other than the occasional tabloid headline most things pass them by. Cynical? Me?
Quite. If one decent thing came out of the credit crunch, it was the eventual awareness of (a bit more of) the general public on matters of debt and deficit and that actually Labour were pretty s
t on both counts. But then try to get some to explain what they think the two metrics actually mean can be very sobering.Digga said:
uite. If one decent thing came out of the credit crunch, it was the eventual awareness of (a bit more of) the general public on matters of debt and deficit and that actually Labour were pretty st on both counts. But then try to get some to explain what they think the two metrics actually mean can be very sobering.
Yet amazingly Labour are still polling strongly. I think many would vote labour even if Jimmy Savile's ghost was the candidate. Lord Ashcroft's polls are interesting; a big chunk of Labour voters think Miliband is crap but will still vote for them.t on both counts. But then try to get some to explain what they think the two metrics actually mean can be very sobering.rovermorris999 said:
Digga said:
uite. If one decent thing came out of the credit crunch, it was the eventual awareness of (a bit more of) the general public on matters of debt and deficit and that actually Labour were pretty st on both counts. But then try to get some to explain what they think the two metrics actually mean can be very sobering.
Yet amazingly Labour are still polling strongly. I think many would vote labour even if Jimmy Savile's ghost was the candidate. Lord Ashcroft's polls are interesting; a big chunk of Labour voters think Miliband is crap but will still vote for them.t on both counts. But then try to get some to explain what they think the two metrics actually mean can be very sobering.rovermorris999 said:
Yet amazingly Labour are still polling strongly. I think many would vote labour even if Jimmy Savile's ghost was the candidate. Lord Ashcroft's polls are interesting; a big chunk of Labour voters think Miliband is crap but will still vote for them.
I was having this conversation with one of our visitors ( good long term friend and female) a few weeks ago and it got quite heated and I had to walk way from the table. She was brought up near Dewesbury, Yorks but now lives down south and somehow over dinner the conversation got round to europe and Ukip and how she would be voting in the GE. She said that she would be voting Labour and we had a lively discussion how Blair et al had seriously f**cked up the country and what had happened in Rotherham etc. which she admitted was probably the case but was still going to vote Labour, in jest I asked her "what if they put up Jacko the stuffed monkey with a red rosette on" as a candidate and she said that she would still vote Labour because her father did, her grandfather did, her husbands family did etc. and she could never vote anything else no matter what the situation. No logic, no desire to find out if that was the right thing, no desire to look at the policies of the alternatives it was almost like she had been brainwashed from an early age and could never, ever move from that position. This lady is not dim but seems to me just politically "blind and deaf" to any alternative and I fear that there is a large slice of the population that are the same.The lack of logic or willingness to look at reality is worrying. In one poll I saw a majority of Labour voters backed a 50% top rate of income tax even if it was shown that overall income tax receipts would go down. Pure envy politics. Stunning.
Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
rovermorris999 said:
The lack of logic or willingness to look at reality is worrying. In one poll I saw a majority of Labour voters backed a 50% top rate of income tax even if it was shown that overall income tax receipts would go down. Pure envy politics. Stunning.
Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
Thanks for the link, time for a look.....Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
Borghetto said:
PRTVR said:
I am not so sure, how long will Germany keep bailing out Greece, there must come a time when it says enough is enough, then with Greece gone and no growth in the rest of the med countries, will it not just be a question of time before a few more leave, if any of the members that have left the Euro start to experience growth, that will signal the end.
It cost the West Germans 2 trillion US$ to bail out the east. I don't think the Greek debt is too crippling for Germany. Also they will try and spread the cost among other Eurozone members. My fear is that they will also try and bail-in the non Eurozone EU members, princupally the UK. This may be Merkel's bargaining chip as a quid pro quo, for acceding to Cameron's demands for changes to the EU. I just don't think UK politicians have the wherewithall to deliver a good deal for our Country.I have to agree that our politicians will not be able to deliver a good deal, part of the problem is they are so pro the EU, why should the EU concede any ground when the people negotiating are desperate to stay in the EU.
LongQ said:
I think it is just posturing, the Syriza guys are desperate to show that they "aren't in the club" and that they are standing up to the EU, and there comments must be seen as that. I don't think they will lose too much sleep over it "not being the done thing"
Nevertheless it is interesting that the still fail to see the need to build some trust and some friends within the EU.
The numbers are (obviously) still looking extremely shaking with some analysts suggesting they are down to their last $1.8bn reserves (with a payment to the IMF due of $1.5bn very shortly)
I see nothing to suggest anything has changed, the piece of paper signed last week looks less and less substantive with everyday, and it is not as if Syriza have leapt into action to implement any new legislation.
What's left to them as policy options now? It is all looking too little to late.
PRTVR said:
But the German's are nothing but logical, paying to update infrastructure makes sense, paying people to retire at 50 less so.
I have to agree that our politicians will not be able to deliver a good deal, part of the problem is they are so pro the EU, why should the EU concede any ground when the people negotiating are desperate to stay in the EU.
German infrastructure is crumbling and they refuse to borrow at negative interest rates because of political and economic dogma.I have to agree that our politicians will not be able to deliver a good deal, part of the problem is they are so pro the EU, why should the EU concede any ground when the people negotiating are desperate to stay in the EU.
The Germans are many things a lot of the time; but logical all of the time, they are not.
turbobloke said:
rovermorris999 said:
The lack of logic or willingness to look at reality is worrying. In one poll I saw a majority of Labour voters backed a 50% top rate of income tax even if it was shown that overall income tax receipts would go down. Pure envy politics. Stunning.
Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
Thanks for the link, time for a look.....Here's the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, it's worth subscribing
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-nati...
LongQ said:
A number of very interesting posts on here. Interesting to observe the number of contributions which bemoan the reality of the state that Greece has fallen to and underline the reality that there has been absolutely no improvement on the cirmucstances of the poor Greek electorate or the dire straights of the Greek economy.What do the failing states do now must perhaps being the most pressing question. I do think that Syriza are banging the drum of being different to Spain etc without actually having either the policies or the understanding to make any real difference to the fate of Greece. Storm in a tea cup on a nonsense squabble, over the Spainsh/Portugese/Greek supposed disagreements. The EU have pounced upon this to "Solve" when there is in fact no real disagreement. Usual stage strutting from the EU will appear shortly with the intention of showing how clever the EU leaders all are. Pity. Typical dishonest sly approach by self serving politicians.
It seems to me that none of the many failing states within the EU have as yet, demonstrated any hope or prospect for the slightest sign of a return towards economic recovery. Printing money and using QE, by the EU to stave off the collapse of these failing states will prolong this nonsense for a while. But Greece cannot and has not recovered economically in any way over the last three years of this madness and all the other failing states face exactly the same economic conundum.
The EU leaders have found a formula politically which offers all the players massive wealth, huge personal financial gains and gold plated pensions. That is why this nonsense is being prolonged and driven on by the establishment of the EU. Not to actually help the failing states recover. This disgrace brings dividends to the leaders of the EU. Money in their pockets and personal aggrandisement and approbation. That is why the nonsense is continuing.
However the EU cannot force a recovery upon Greece? Unless Syriza fundamentally alter ther approach then the agreed economy will continue to collase into abject insolvency. And Billions more Euro's will be wasted by lending more and more money to Greece when Greece has no means of ever repaying these loans. I can see no sign that Syriza are capable of recognsing this fact and changing their approach. The debts that will be totally lost in the collapse of Greece when this collapse comes, as it must and which is steadily growing by the day. Since Greece is already wholly insolvent, with a failing and falling economy there is no realistic prospect of any result other than the ruination of Greece who will inevitably have to leave the Euro.
But EU leaders and bureaucrats will get the rewards they are seeking. Which seems to be the entire objective of this dsgraceful affair. Greece will be ruined and will have to return to the Drachma and years of misery and penury will follow. The solvent states wthin the EU will have to pick up the tab.
I do think this is a dreadful outcome but I cannot see any other result. There's going to be an almighty kerfuffle within the EU once this happens. But that does seem to me to be the only realistic result. Lending Billions to an insolvent nation does involve that sort of risk. Pity's that the EU taxpayers are going to be the patsy's once again.
Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 3rd March 16:44
rovermorris999 said:
Yet amazingly Labour are still polling strongly. I think many would vote labour even if Jimmy Savile's ghost was the candidate. Lord Ashcroft's polls are interesting; a big chunk of Labour voters think Miliband is crap but will still vote for them.
In most of South Wales, people would vote for a trained chimp if it was wearing a red rosette - this is the legacy of Mrs.T and the miners, and it'll never (and I mean never) change. Sad that people are so blinkered.That legacy of the miners is one the tories will have to live with.The poll tax then now the bedroom tax same attitude..Also the slowly privatization of the N.H.S.People are worried of this happening.I do think there are more employement opportunities if you are willing to work.Eldery care is becoming poor when people are ill.We are living longer with more illnesses.Both parties Labour and Conservative are not that different.Both are scared of the financial world no matter how much they have damaged the economy.None of our bankers have been found guilty of any wrongdoing they are above the law.The Euro will stay.Labour party win by a small margin in the next election my guess.
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