Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Enricogto]

LongQ said:

Mermaid said:

It seems they too need the German tax collectors to get the money in.

Of course in a "fully integrated" country called Europe they would have them.

No,

what you need is a tax system less bizantine.
Why in the UK my P60 is a small one pager and i can replicate the tax calculation while in Italy my equivalent model 740 is some 28 pages long and it's impossible to replicate the tax calculation because the tax codes are plentiful and they change every year?
The reality is that corruption and inefficiency are state sanctioned because this suits the politicians and helps them to maintain the power. An old say from a famous '60s film says that in order for everything to change, everything must stay the same.
Another example of how politicians gently strangle the economy is the case, in many citites of the North including Modena and Bologna, for local administrators to levy a tax on the doormats of shops that have the logo of the company embroided on it. Is this an easy to police and collect tax? No. Is the amount collected useful in any way? No. Does it irks business owners and, compounded with many more similar manouvres, makes running a business ultimately a hurdle race? Yes.
Yet people keep voting them....

[LongQ]

Enricogto said:

LongQ said:

Mermaid said:

It seems they too need the German tax collectors to get the money in.

Of course in a "fully integrated" country called Europe they would have them.

No,

what you need is a tax system less bizantine.
Why in the UK my P60 is a small one pager and i can replicate the tax calculation while in Italy my equivalent model 740 is some 28 pages long and it's impossible to replicate the tax calculation because the tax codes are plentiful and they change every year?
The reality is that corruption and inefficiency are state sanctioned because this suits the politicians and helps them to maintain the power. An old say from a famous '60s film says that in order for everything to change, everything must stay the same.
Another example of how politicians gently strangle the economy is the case, in many citites of the North including Modena and Bologna, for local administrators to levy a tax on the doormats of shops that have the logo of the company embroided on it. Is this an easy to police and collect tax? No. Is the amount collected useful in any way? No. Does it irks business owners and, compounded with many more similar manouvres, makes running a business ultimately a hurdle race? Yes.
Yet people keep voting them....

Well, I know nothing of the German Tax system but my point was that an effectively integrated Europe (if that might just be possible) would have solved the byzantine problem by unifying taxation methods (mostly).

Whether that would be a good thing is different subject.

Edited by LongQ on Thursday 5th March 16:06

[Enricogto]

LongQ said:

Well, I know noting of the German Tax system but my point was that an effectively integrated Europe (if that might just be possible) would have solved the byzantine problem by unifying taxation methods (mostly).

Whether that would be a good thing is different subject.

The one mentioned is the Italian tax system.
Agree with you that clear unification would be a (better) solution than the current half-arsed attempt. What I disagree with is the idea that what is needed is different tax inspectors.
What would else be needed is to get rid of the whole current class of politicians and a substantial change in the mentality of the population. As Steffan, Andy and Digga may be able to confirm, the approach to taxes changes significantly the further you move south. The north of Italy has nothing to suffer from in the paragon with Germany, both in terms of productivity, efficiency, tax revenues and evasion levels. Once you start getting around Rome, the story changes somewhat....

[Steffan]

Enricogto said:

LongQ said:

Well, I know noting of the German Tax system but my point was that an effectively integrated Europe (if that might just be possible) would have solved the byzantine problem by unifying taxation methods (mostly).

Whether that would be a good thing is different subject.

The one mentioned is the Italian tax system.
Agree with you that clear unification would be a (better) solution than the current half-arsed attempt. What I disagree with is the idea that what is needed is different tax inspectors.
What would else be needed is to get rid of the whole current class of politicians and a substantial change in the mentality of the population. As Steffan, Andy and Digga may be able to confirm, the approach to taxes changes significantly the further you move south. The north of Italy has nothing to suffer from in the paragon with Germany, both in terms of productivity, efficiency, tax revenues and evasion levels. Once you start getting around Rome, the story changes somewhat....

It is certainly true that the North of Italy very different from Southern Italy and in reality the culture and customs of the two are really fundamentally different. Northern Italy could as you suggest well afford to be in the EU. Southern Italy is an entirely different matter. We must Italy as a united country is a relatively recent event that only occurred in Victirian times.

The twain shall not meet being a pretty fair description of the situation. Another excellent example of a federal taxation system being used to deeds tribute wealth vary effectively. That is precisely what the EU

[Steffan]

Enricogto said:

LongQ said:

Well, I know noting of the German Tax system but my point was that an effectively integrated Europe (if that might just be possible) would have solved the byzantine problem by unifying taxation methods (mostly).

Whether that would be a good thing is different subject.

The one mentioned is the Italian tax system.
Agree with you that clear unification would be a (better) solution than the current half-arsed attempt. What I disagree with is the idea that what is needed is different tax inspectors.
What would else be needed is to get rid of the whole current class of politicians and a substantial change in the mentality of the population. As Steffan, Andy and Digga may be able to confirm, the approach to taxes changes significantly the further you move south. The north of Italy has nothing to suffer from in the paragon with Germany, both in terms of productivity, efficiency, tax revenues and evasion levels. Once you start getting around Rome, the story changes somewhat....

It is certainly true that the North of Italy very different from Southern Italy and in reality the culture and customs of the two are really fundamentally different. Northern Italy could as you suggest well afford to be in the EU. Southern Italy is an entirely different matter. We must Italy as a united country is a relatively recent event that only occurred in Victirian times.

The twain shall not meet being a pretty fair description of the situation. Another excellent example of a federal taxation system being used to deeds tribute wealth vary effectively. That is precisely what the EU can never achieve within the EU and once again demonstrates the fundamental problem that the EU cannot manage. Southern Italy would not be in the EU we're it not for the massive hidden subsidies transferred centrally to the Southern Regions. Which is just what the EU need and just what the EU can never achieve.

Does anyone on here actually still think integration of the taxation systems within the EU with a central point if control is still a possibility? Without that strength this monetary union is bound to fail. I cannot see how such a failure an be avoided. Hence my realisation long ago that these failing states could ever afford to remain in the EU without permanent subsidy.

[anonymous-user]

Steffan said:

Does anyone on here actually still think integration of the taxation systems within the EU with a central point if control is still a possibility?

Not a chance in hell.

Steffan said:

Without that strength this monetary union is bound to fail. I cannot see how such a failure an be avoided. Hence my realisation long ago that these failing states could ever afford to remain in the EU without permanent subsidy.

I have long argued that monetary union means permanent subsidy but also that there are many ways of acheiving this without being so obvious as blatent federal tax redistribution a la USA. IMO Eurobonds are almost an inevitability, 99.9% of the population would not understand the significance, I'm just surprised we don't have them already.

[anonymous-user]

Is Italys infrastructure failing? I've only been to the Lakes/Alps and certainly didn't appear to be, quite the opposite. So if not, would increasing the tax take actually help the economy? Higher taxes are not normally a way of boosting an economy!

[Enricogto]

fblm said:

Is Italys infrastructure failing? I've only been to the Lakes/Alps and certainly didn't appear to be, quite the opposite. So if not, would increasing the tax take actually help the economy? Higher taxes are not normally a way of boosting an economy!

Depends how far south you go...

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&a...

that said, more taxes is not the solution.

[LongQ]

Enricogto said:

LongQ said:

Well, I know noting of the German Tax system but my point was that an effectively integrated Europe (if that might just be possible) would have solved the byzantine problem by unifying taxation methods (mostly).

Whether that would be a good thing is different subject.

The one mentioned is the Italian tax system.

Yes, but it I doubt it would the the Italian system in an integrated Europe.

Well, not if the European political élite wanted what they think of as an efficient system.

On the other hand if they really wanted the best opportunity for personal gain by whatever method possible, assuming that the EU had reformed of course, perhaps they would prefer to implement a non-German system. maybe the Italian one would work for them?

[Walford]

[Mr Whippy]

I wonder just how worthless the euro can get with a trillion of QE to help it along.

If salaries don't rise at the rate the euro is sinking vs usd or sterling then surely they're getting poorer and poorer in real terms?
And if salaries were rising they'd not be doing QE now given recent euro devaluation?


It doesn't seem to stack up.

QE isn't doing much except socialising some more debt for the profit of the mega players!?


Dave

[davepoth]

Mr Whippy said:

I wonder just how worthless the euro can get with a trillion of QE to help it along.

If salaries don't rise at the rate the euro is sinking vs usd or sterling then surely they're getting poorer and poorer in real terms?
And if salaries were rising they'd not be doing QE now given recent euro devaluation?


It doesn't seem to stack up.

QE isn't doing much except socialising some more debt for the profit of the mega players!?


Dave

The Euro is propped up by Germany. While QE would possible cause inflation elsewhere, it will have the benefit of making Germany even more competitive in export markets, which should keep a lid on inflation Eurozone wide. Germany needs QE due to the risk of stagnation, which is the only reason it's now been allowed.

[Borghetto]

I've just discovered that 10,000 priests are paid a salary by the Greek Government (making them public sector workers). I wonder how many other surprising groups of "employees" there are in the public sector.

[Mr Whippy]

davepoth said:

The Euro is propped up by Germany. While QE would possible cause inflation elsewhere, it will have the benefit of making Germany even more competitive in export markets, which should keep a lid on inflation Eurozone wide. Germany needs QE due to the risk of stagnation, which is the only reason it's now been allowed.

That sounds reasonable, but where does QE money end up?

It still seems like a socially costed bailout for the benefit of the few who will profit most from their debt deflating via inflation, rather than inflating and costing them a fortune instead.


Obviously it'll keep the euro train chugging for longer but it seems to be no closer to a safer stable future today than it was in 2008.
Part of me thinks this QE won't be widely appreciated a few months in when its doing nothing but making more of the satellite countries more in the Greek boat!

Hmmmm

Edited by Mr Whippy on Thursday 5th March 23:51

[YankeePorker]

Mr Whippy said:

.........where does QE end up?

In the USA the QE has ended up in the stock market, with share price growth and the resultant price earnings ratios defying the reality of the declared earnings. I expect the same to happen in the €zone, with particular emphasis on the exporting countries that will benefit most from a weakened €. That'll be Germany then!

Look at how the DAX has gone up since the beginning of the year in anticipation, around 13% in 2 months.

[DJRC]

Is Italy's infrastructure failing? Oh God yes. Look into the rural hinterlands and the picture you will find is absolutely NOT one if Tuscan perfection.

As for the German tax system, its pretty easy. My accountant sends me the estimation form. I will it in. Start of the next yr she sends me my payment schedule for every quarter (pre payment scheme) and I pay by the 10th of that month in the quarter, e.g., 10th March, June, Sept, Dec. As the more astute of you will have noticed the 10th of March is just around the corner meaning that yes, today is pay Angie day! The following yr, i.e. now for 2013 tax yr you submit your receipts etc. It gets funky for x pats such as me as it cans depend on what type of contract you are on and what you do. It also has a "hearth of your home" clause which regards where your spouse/family is and if abroad I can then claim all my German expenses against tax, inc my rent and flights. Nice

The Dutch have a similarish system known as the 30% rule. So long as your home isn't within 100-150km of Holland, if you are an ex pat in Holland you pay a flat 30% tax instead of their 50 something. The Dutch hate this, ex pats love it

Remember kids, its all about the money!

[steveT350C]

Marine Le Pen wants out, and Front National leads the polls in France.



Ultimately, quitting the euro is the only solution, she says. “We are told it’s going to be catastrophic, that it will rain frogs, that the Seine will turn into a river of blood,” she says. “There aren’t that many practical problems.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21c43558-c32e-11e4-ac3d-...

[Digga]

DJRC said:

Is Italy's infrastructure failing? Oh God yes. Look into the rural hinterlands and the picture you will find is absolutely NOT one if Tuscan perfection.

Not jsut Italy, the effects of the credit crunch roll on a investment is staggeringly bad all over Europe:



Also clear in this is the "Euro boost" effect for economies other than Germany.

[anonymous-user]

Mr Whippy said:

That sounds reasonable, but where does QE money end up?

It still seems like a socially costed bailout for the benefit of the few...

If by few you mean everyone with their pension savings invested in European stock markets, employed by businesses in debt secured by European assets, employed in export industries or anyone else with assets or investments based in Europe then yes it's for the benefit of the few. Now before everyone jumps down my throat as usual for defending QE I don't think it is going to solve anything, just buy time. I'm not a supporter of QE but every time it is discussed here we're always told it's only for the benefit of the few when in fact vast swathes of the population 'benefit' from an increase in asset prices.

[Steffan]

DJRC said:

Is Italy's infrastructure failing? Oh God yes. Look into the rural hinterlands and the picture you will find is absolutely NOT one if Tuscan perfection.

As for the German tax system, its pretty easy. My accountant sends me the estimation form. I will it in. Start of the next yr she sends me my payment schedule for every quarter (pre payment scheme) and I pay by the 10th of that month in the quarter, e.g., 10th March, June, Sept, Dec. As the more astute of you will have noticed the 10th of March is just around the corner meaning that yes, today is pay Angie day! The following yr, i.e. now for 2013 tax yr you submit your receipts etc. It gets funky for x pats such as me as it cans depend on what type of contract you are on and what you do. It also has a "hearth of your home" clause which regards where your spouse/family is and if abroad I can then claim all my German expenses against tax, inc my rent and flights. Nice

The Dutch have a similarish system known as the 30% rule. So long as your home isn't within 100-150km of Holland, if you are an ex pat in Holland you pay a flat 30% tax instead of their 50 something. The Dutch hate this, ex pats love it

Remember kids, its all about the money!

Good to see you are complying with the relevant taxation requirements of working abroad. I have know a number of IT contractors working in Europe who failed to follow that dictum and got into real difficulty in consequence. The EU generally is pretty good at identifying evasion which is a very good reason to avoid but never evade taxation.

Taxation and the national passtime of evasion in Italy is growing steadily. So many fiddles are about that the loss to the Italian Treasury must be vast!

You are absolutely correct on the visibility of the effects on the Tuscany economy beinge visible and deeply serious. The real property prices actually realized on sale in Lucca has dropped steadily over the last ten years.

A lot of wealthy Italians with old money inheritances are seriously affected and short of cash but still often property rich. I am paying rent now at some 50% of what we used to pay ten years ago for a much better apartment, less than two years old and absolutely central in Lucca. Just agreed a return for seven months next year in the same place at an even lower figure.

Some of this gain could be explained by our better understanding of the Italian approach but clearly not all of it? There visibly less money about and market prices for basic food etc are clearly falling.