Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
fblm said:
If by few you mean everyone with their pension savings invested in European stock markets, employed by businesses in debt secured by European assets, employed in export industries or anyone else with assets or investments based in Europe then yes it's for the benefit of the few. 
Now before everyone jumps down my throat as usual for defending QE I don't think it is going to solve anything, just buy time. I'm not a supporter of QE but every time it is discussed here we're always told it's only for the benefit of the few when in fact vast swathes of the population 'benefit' from an increase in asset prices.
That's fine for those cashing out before the correction that will occur at some point or another. Now before everyone jumps down my throat as usual for defending QE I don't think it is going to solve anything, just buy time. I'm not a supporter of QE but every time it is discussed here we're always told it's only for the benefit of the few when in fact vast swathes of the population 'benefit' from an increase in asset prices.But if my pension fund goes up more just to come down more later anyway, at my cost later (higher taxes or whatever) then it's pointless.
If the fund surges, as they are recently, to never correct, then great... but I don't think they will. Just look at Japan.
So who actually walks away long term wealthier from QE? Who is selling up their positions now while governments wholesale buy up stocks with the future generations wealth?
As they say, isn't smart money on the way out just as the frenzy of high growth reaches its peak?
Far from an expert but I think I'd be bailing now if I knew the general population were willing to buy off me at high P/E ratios in a time when global growth appears to be in it's arse and war around the corner!
Mr Whippy said:
But if my pension fund goes up more just to come down more later anyway, at my cost later (higher taxes or whatever) then it's pointless.
Well the most obvious reason it might not make any difference to your pension long term is that annuity/bond rates are driven so low that the poor sods reaching retirement age in a QE/ZIRP world will get absolutely fvck all income from their inflated pot.Mr Whippy said:
So who actually walks away long term wealthier from QE?
If you agree sharp correction lower is almost universally bad for everyone then simply avoiding that sharp correction for a slow readjustment of living standards while everyone deleverages could well be the lesser of two evils. As I said previously, all QE does is buy time; it allows governments to borrow at cheap rates to continue spending and avoid 'savage cuts to public spending', it typically causes negative real rates to deflate the debt overhand and it allows businesses and individuals to continue to borrow against assets to fund growth. Buying time to eek out some economic growth, on a national, corporate and personal level; that's really the best you can hope for when you're as indebted as everyone appears to be. IMO I think the UK can pull it off assuming you don't get PM Millipede, Europe, forget it.. the ECB might buy them time but the EU appears to have absolutely no plan for the growth of anything but the EU bureaucracy.Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 6th March 16:07
fblm said:
Mr Whippy said:
But if my pension fund goes up more just to come down more later anyway, at my cost later (higher taxes or whatever) then it's pointless.
Well the most obvious reason it might not make any difference to your pension long term is that annuity/bond rates are driven so low that the poor sods reaching retirement age in a QE/ZIRP world will get absolutely fvck all income from their inflated pot.Mr Whippy said:
So who actually walks away long term wealthier from QE?
If you agree sharp correction lower is almost universally bad for everyone then simply avoiding that sharp correction for a slow readjustment of living standards while everyone deleverages could well be the lesser of two evils. As I said previously, all QE does is buy time; it allows governments to borrow at cheap rates to continue spending and avoid 'savage cuts to public spending', it typically causes negative real rates to deflate the debt overhand and it allows businesses and individuals to continue to borrow against assets to fund growth. Buying time to eek out some economic growth, on a national, corporate and personal level; that's really the best you can hope for when you're as indebted as everyone appears to be. IMO I think the UK can pull it off assuming you don't get PM Millipede, Europe, forget it.. the ECB might buy them time but the EU appears to have absolutely no plan for the growth of anything but the EU bureaucracy.Edited by fblm on Friday 6th March 16:07
If QE is used to create massive lasting long term projects and therefore increasing employment to build major infrastructure and projects like the Hoover Dam in the USA, in the 1930's then I can see the argument for QE and it unquestionably could result in better growth within a stagnant economy and could provide capital projects of long term value.
However when QE us simply used as it is with the EU currently, simply to provide Billions that are then thrown away on holding hopelessly isolvent sovereign nations within a currency which they could never afford to be within and will never afford to remain within is economic madness of the highest order.
The longer this goes on the more apparent it has become that the EU does not have any solution to the problem of Greece and the other failing states. The figures were fiddled to get them into the currency and thy are being ducked to keep them in the currency. More and more Billions are being shovelled down a boldly big hole and thisis never going to provide anything worthwhile for Europe or the Solvent nations.
Greece will default in the end and the nonsense will become apparent. The longer this goes on the worse it has got. There is no solution in this EU nonsense. Then there will be an slightly kerfuffle.
Steffan said:
Greece will default in the end....
When is this "end" of which you speak? I've been scouring the atlas and the calendar but haven't yet found "nigh", let alone "end".It's like religious extremism - radical belief that the messiah will come, despite his persistent non-appearance.
Claudia Skies said:
Steffan said:
Greece will default in the end....
When is this "end" of which you speak? I've been scouring the atlas and the calendar but haven't yet found "nigh", let alone "end".It's like religious extremism - radical belief that the messiah will come, despite his persistent non-appearance.
RYH64E said:
Watching the GBP drop against USD today makes me wonder if the end is nigh for sterling. I owe a supplier about $60k for my February account and meant to pay it earlier this week when the rate was 1.54, didn't get round to it and now the rate is 1.505, b
ks.
What has funds tally changed?ks.Unemployment decreasing in the US ahead of UK - it was before is the gap narrowing or widening?
£ will be nervous until June re elections
Welshbeef said:
RYH64E said:
Watching the GBP drop against USD today makes me wonder if the end is nigh for sterling. I owe a supplier about $60k for my February account and meant to pay it earlier this week when the rate was 1.54, didn't get round to it and now the rate is 1.505, bks.
What has funds tally changed?ks.Unemployment decreasing in the US ahead of UK - it was before is the gap narrowing or widening?
£ will be nervous until June re elections
Welshbeef said:
RYH64E said:
Watching the GBP drop against USD today makes me wonder if the end is nigh for sterling. I owe a supplier about $60k for my February account and meant to pay it earlier this week when the rate was 1.54, didn't get round to it and now the rate is 1.505, bks.
What has funds tally changed?ks.Unemployment decreasing in the US ahead of UK - it was before is the gap narrowing or widening?
£ will be nervous until June re elections
Mermaid said:
fblm said:
Good payrolls this morning; rate hikes likely sooner than expected; $ stronger against everything. Nothing to do with the UK today.
$ parity with Euro?Claudia Skies said:
Steffan said:
Greece will default in the end....
When is this "end" of which you speak? I've been scouring the atlas and the calendar but haven't yet found "nigh", let alone "end".It's like religious extremism - radical belief that the messiah will come, despite his persistent non-appearance.
There are two ways out of this - Greece defaulting and falling out of the Euro, followed by others, or steps taken towards the proper financial union that the Euro needs to survive.
fblm said:
Welshbeef said:
RYH64E said:
Watching the GBP drop against USD today makes me wonder if the end is nigh for sterling. I owe a supplier about $60k for my February account and meant to pay it earlier this week when the rate was 1.54, didn't get round to it and now the rate is 1.505, bks.
What has funds tally changed?ks.Unemployment decreasing in the US ahead of UK - it was before is the gap narrowing or widening?
£ will be nervous until June re elections
Mermaid said:
Walford said:
davepoth said:
or steps taken towards the proper financial union that the Euro needs to survive.
ye but that could leave the PIGS in power, how would that work????????????????????????????????Every country is equal, some more so.
Not likely here I suspect I cannot see any of growth or recovery whatsoever in Greece. The Greece goose seems to me to be well and truly cooked and way beyond the point of recovery. One of the contributors on here mentioned that 10,000 Greek priests were being paid for by the Greek government. Doubtless thy will be retiring at 45 and looking forward to gold plated pensions and a carefree life!
Not going to happen the economic position of Greece is even more untenable now than it was when this nonsense first started. Default by Greece is inevitable once this nonsense fails to provide the secrecy cloak that the EU seem to think is fooling everyone. The EU is fooling itself and making the huge mistake of believing it's own bullshyete. Lending more money to hoplessly insolvent Sovereign states on the pretence that those states will recover and repay the loans is criminally dishonest and nonsense economics.
This may stagger on the whilst the EU throws more and more money into Greece with absolutely no prospect of the slightest recovery. But default by Greece s absolutey inevitable. Then there will be real problems for the EU, the dreams of the EU, the Solvent states within the EU who will pick the total loss up because thy are the only ones who can and of course Greece itself will suffer considerably. Not going to end well at all!
RYH64E said:
Watching the GBP drop against USD today makes me wonder if the end is nigh for sterling. I owe a supplier about $60k for my February account and meant to pay it earlier this week when the rate was 1.54, didn't get round to it and now the rate is 1.505, bks.
Usd being stronger vs Sterling doesn't mean sterling is weak, just less strong.ks.And it may become a case that strong currencies are less than ideal too.
But Usd rates up will push debt costs up too. What breaks first?
Usd really is in a tight spot this year imo.
Same with Japan, China and euro. Oodles of debt, interest rates staying low and active QE.
I'd say sterling has a brighter future over the next 12 months irrespective of the elections.
davepoth said:
Claudia Skies said:
Steffan said:
Greece will default in the end....
When is this "end" of which you speak? I've been scouring the atlas and the calendar but haven't yet found "nigh", let alone "end".It's like religious extremism - radical belief that the messiah will come, despite his persistent non-appearance.
There are two ways out of this - Greece defaulting and falling out of the Euro, followed by others, or steps taken towards the proper financial union that the Euro needs to survive.
AstonZagato said:
davepoth said:
Claudia Skies said:
Steffan said:
Greece will default in the end....
When is this "end" of which you speak? I've been scouring the atlas and the calendar but haven't yet found "nigh", let alone "end".It's like religious extremism - radical belief that the messiah will come, despite his persistent non-appearance.
There are two ways out of this - Greece defaulting and falling out of the Euro, followed by others, or steps taken towards the proper financial union that the Euro needs to survive.
At some point there will need to be a series of events that humans will think of as a disaster to reset the indebtedness.
One might assume they want to promote the idea of climate disaster as an escape route. Failing that would be a large meteor strike but if all natural events fail to deliver before the system goes hypercritical then humanity will have to self induce some form of calamity quickly - the most likely being a huge war but that could also be the least acceptable representing, as it would, an acknowledgement of failure for the human race project.
Still, it would zero the numbers in the account department.
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