Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[turbobloke]

LongQ said:

turbobloke said:

Welshbeef said:

Apart from olives and tourism what could they do?

Shipping? Either cargo or debt.

Do what the UK has done.

Sell infrastructure assets (that they have not already sold) go into "Financial Services" in a big way (Or something with a similar modus operandi), rent out some miltary facilities to the Russians.

Trade, based on the shipping tradition, and piracy might be options.

Allocate a couple of islands to asylum seeker processing - pretty sure several EU colleague nations would fund that.

Selling islands, that'll do nicely. Apple could buy a few for starters, they'd be great for team building exercises. Hugh Heffner might be interested in Lesbos. Then there's Crete, surely of interest to Mark Towe, and Skyros which ought to be ideal for Murdoch. If Red Ed got a bit richer then Psili would be great for him.

[LongQ]

turbobloke said:

LongQ said:

turbobloke said:

Welshbeef said:

Apart from olives and tourism what could they do?

Shipping? Either cargo or debt.

Do what the UK has done.

Sell infrastructure assets (that they have not already sold) go into "Financial Services" in a big way (Or something with a similar modus operandi), rent out some miltary facilities to the Russians.

Trade, based on the shipping tradition, and piracy might be options.

Allocate a couple of islands to asylum seeker processing - pretty sure several EU colleague nations would fund that.

Selling islands, that'll do nicely. Apple could buy a few for starters, they'd be great for team building exercises. Hugh Heffner might be interested in Lesbos. Then there's Crete, surely of interest to Mark Towe, and Skyros which ought to be ideal for Murdoch. If Red Ed got a bit richer then Psili would be great for him.

See how easy it is to come up with ideas for wealth re-distibution that are beneficial to all parties?

So why can't "the powerful ones" do that?

[jogon]

Andy Zarse said:

Andy Zarse in 2011 said:

... An example of such problems with the losses on credit default swaps at Erste Bank... Austrian taxpayers will be hoping that there are no further such surprises.

Damn I'm good! finally the Swiss franc mortgage have caught up with Austria.

The news from Corinthia is not so spiffing so far as banking goes with the bonds written by the local authority about to be called in. What I am interested to know is what have all the accountants and wind-up experts been doing at Heta for their money for the last three and a half years?

Snow's good though .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11447...

Edited by Andy Zarse on Wednesday 4th March 07:53

Some more news from Austria..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-...

[Claudia Skies]

jogon said:

Some more news from Austria..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-...

"In a nutshell, the Austrian government has had enough of funding the bank’s losses...."

However, the UK government is more willing to prop up failed banks,

"RBS, which is 80 per cent owned by the taxpayer, racked up another £3.5 billion in annual losses today, taking the running total to nearly £50 billion since it was bailed out by the previous Labour government in 2008."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/560573/RBS-Royal-...

Claudia

[Welshbeef]

Claudia Skies said:

jogon said:

Some more news from Austria..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-...

"In a nutshell, the Austrian government has had enough of funding the bank’s losses...."

However, the UK government is more willing to prop up failed banks,

"RBS, which is 80 per cent owned by the taxpayer, racked up another £3.5 billion in annual losses today, taking the running total to nearly £50 billion since it was bailed out by the previous Labour government in 2008."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/560573/RBS-Royal-...

Claudia

Its really great how the press publish this - UK Govt own 81% of the bank oddly they think only the Govt pay in when losses mount year on year.

Fact is pretty different as the UK govt is not paying in anything nor has it since the original else its share holding would be increasing it isn't.
These are losses so retained profits from company inception are decreased - the bank was bailed out as it had run out of cash it could have taken the losses but its funding had vanished so was bankrupt.

[Walford]

Next thing will be build a wall around Europe

[LongQ]

Walford said:

Next thing will be build a wall around Europe

To keep people in or to keep people out?

Or just flood defence as an infrastructure project to generate employment and cash flows?

[Steffan]

Mr Whippy said:

London424 said:

I see there is more noise for an EU army...obviously no one predicted this a while back either

http://www.cityam.com/211045/junkers-calling-eu-ar...

Jeez.

Please collapse soon EU!

The last thing we need to give the ultimate unelected gravy train is a lethal means to expand their neo-socialist ideals.

Indeed.

Bright and Sunny in Italy today and it dies seem that spring has sprung! Looking at the attest headlines I native that yet another voice suggesting that the EU is fundamentally flawed has surfaced on the Beeb.

see: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31791928

Neil Woodford, sometime guru at Invesco Perpetual confirms his vew that any currency seeking to combine the might of Germany and the Minnow of Greece is going to come apart inevitably. Death by a thousand cuts will be the undoing of this matter I suspect. The EU can and probably will continue to waste Billions and Billions more of the poor hard earned EU taxpayers money using QE to try and rescue this project. But the EU do NOT have a "Solution".

Not going to work because nothing that the EU have done in the last three year of madness has actually made the slightest improvement to the economic failure that is Greece. Newly elected Socialist Syriza government offering greater government spending in Greece and absolutely no sign of any revival in the Greek economy whatsoever. Nor will their be.

The EU have demonstrated that they do not have an answer to Greece imploding on itself. Lending more and more QE Billions to a hopessly insolvent nation may delay the collapse but it cannot cure the economic failure at the centre of this problem. Greece never could afford, never has been abe to afford and never will be able to afford, membership in a currency dominated by Germany. More and more discussion, recognition and arrticles steadily building up the awareness of those facts across the Westen world. There is an unfathonable problem right in the fundamental structure of the EU. The EU cannot keep Greece within this currency.

[911Gary]

The ultimate in hypocrisy and contempt IMO, they now want their own army what a suprise,mind you with the austerity and civil unrest due once the Greeks fall out they will need some debt collectors,it was never far from their minds,Russia wont give a monkeys let alone take the EU seriously,I mean where does that start and end,army,air force,navy nuclear power where? Will they be Greek soldiers or Spanish or EU ones?
Quote of the thread from the founder,

" I believe the EU are foist by their own petard in the matter"
classic Steffan.

[Mermaid]

Beware anyone that keeps embracing/funding the Greeks.

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Beware anyone that keeps embracing/funding the Greeks.

Absolutey spot on Mermaid!

The EU is itsef currently the biggest fall guys within this mess . Utimately the Solvent EU currency members inevitably will pick up the whole of ths tab,. Germany , France, Austria, Belgium and indeed all the other 28 supposedly solvent states within this currency union. There is going to be an almighty row and that is exactly why the EU are pushing this on by using QE to proved apparently risk free funding. Huge risks in reality because not one cent of ths will ever be returned by Greece. Be interesting to see whether tye EU try to load this onto countries like the Scandavian block and UK. That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons!

Experience of seriously large multin national company Insolvency work taught me years ago that when the seriously big debtors fail, which Greece is and Grece will fail, then only the wealthy creditors who can survive the losses actually pick up the tab. Unpleasant, unfair and in ths case clearly dishonestly achieved. But that s the reality of real world economics.

The Domino effect on the other failing states seems to be the primary concern of the EU now. These politicians are so insulated from the reality of life that throwing away billions weekly to save their dream has become second nature. Sadly this will end one way. Greece in hopessly insolvent. Therefore Greece will not repay these debts and Greece will go bust.

[Andy Zarse]

Steffan said:

Ultimately the Solvent EU currency members inevitably will pick up the whole of ths tab,. Germany , France, Austria, Belgium and indeed all the other 28 supposedly solvent states within this currency union.

Austria solvent? Did you not see the above? The poor old Ostriches are about to be bailed-in on a massive banking failure, caught out by the mouth writing cheques their wallet can't honour.

There are litigious hedge funds circling who are going to land and pick at the corpse for years.

[911Gary]

I feel like AZ that once this is all over there will be corruption,skulduggery and indeed massive corporate and indeed National criminal fraud uncovered on a scale unseen in modern political times.
The massive amounts of money borrowed,lost and spent never to be repaid cannot even be contemplated,IMO its the most money grabbing bureaucratic corrupt crock of S**t ever seen in modern times,eye watering sums of money going where? Show us the accounts,oh no sorry we've already asked you cant can you.Money lent to corrupt bankrupt countries who lied to gain access to the club and its money in the first place.
I hope I'm here to see "The chickens come home to roost" because they will.And now they want an Army you couldn't make it up.
G

Edited by 911Gary on Monday 9th March 11:05

[Steffan]

Andy Zarse said:

Steffan said:

Ultimately the Solvent EU currency members inevitably will pick up the whole of ths tab,. Germany , France, Austria, Belgium and indeed all the other 28 supposedly solvent states within this currency union.

Austria solvent? Did you not see the above? The poor old Ostriches are about to be bailed-in on a massive banking failure, caught out by the mouth writing cheques their wallet can't honour.

There are litigious hedge funds circling who are going to land and pick at the corpse for years.

911Gary said:

I feel like AZ that once this is all over there will be corruption,skulduggery and indeed massive corporate and indeed criminal fraud uncovered on a scale unseen in modern politic.
The massive amounts of money borrowed,lost and spent never to be repaid cannot even be contemplated,IMO its the most money grabbing bureaucratic corrupt crock of S**t ever seen in modern times,eye watering sums of money going where? Show us the accounts,oh no sorry we've already asked you cant can you.Money lent to corrupt bankrupt countries who lied to gain access to the club and its money in the first place.
I hope I'm here to see "The chickens come home to roost" because they will.And now they want an Army you couldn't make it up.
G

I do take your point AZ. Mea culpa!

Clearly there are a number of EU members who are wholly insolvent as well as the failing States within the EU who have already declared their inability to survive within the straight jacket that being in a currency with Germany as the driving force.

As 911Gary has commented today and earlier on here these corrupt shenanigans are going to come to light in gloious and once the scale of the dishonesty becomes parent then there will be all hell to pay within the EU. The Marjets will be in overdrive. I cannot see any way that the EU can save this situation given the sheer size of the losses that will be racked up once the cookie starts to crumble. Which it will.

The EU Army nonsense underlines the extent of the lunacy that these political leaders have become used to indulging in daily with the regular stage strutting antics and happily sending Bilions of OP money weekly because they can. It is quite horrific in reality once this madness starts to crumble I really do wonder where this will end. Hopefully with reality and responsibility returning to politics within Europe. The crunch is coming!

[Mermaid]

911Gary said:

I feel like AZ that once this is all over there will be corruption,skulduggery and indeed massive corporate and indeed National criminal fraud uncovered on a scale unseen in modern political times.
The massive amounts of money borrowed,lost and spent never to be repaid cannot even be contemplated,IMO its the most money grabbing bureaucratic corrupt crock of S**t ever seen in modern times,eye watering sums of money going where? Show us the accounts,oh no sorry we've already asked you cant can you.Money lent to corrupt bankrupt countries who lied to gain access to the club and its money in the first place.
I hope I'm here to see "The chickens come home to roost" because they will.And now they want an Army you couldn't make it up.
G

.they are above the law, and common sense.

[Walford]

assuming this slow death goes on, were will euro/dollar euro/gbp be at the end of 2015 ?

[LongQ]

911Gary said:

I hope I'm here to see "The chickens come home to roost" because they will.And now they want an Army you couldn't make it up.
G

Well, with the prospect of Chickens roosting in the offing they would probably feel a need for an Army under their control to attempt to protect their interests.

Meanwhile ...

I read more and more about Location Awareness from mobile communication devices, the proliferation of cameras monitoring the roads as they are "upgraded" and comms cables are laid mile by mile, automated payment for and monitoring of parking with the cash option being removed and so on. We know where you are son ...

Now we have the police, apparently, suggesting that home owners should install CCTV cameras in order to help catch burglars. Inadmissable evidence I would have thought but hey, the law can be changed can't it?

How much would that actually help with anything is another matter given falling crime rates (allegedly) and short or non-existant sentences and the availability of suitable disguises.

However, tie that in with ubiquitous internet connectivity and "store it on the cloud so you can make your home security accessible from afar via the Internet of Things" and suddenly one's erstwhile Castle becomes a full on Reality CCTV show.

Decide not to have a camera in your home? Hmm, dodgy people. "If you have nothing to hide ..... etc."

Still, great for tax collectors seeking to deal with 'Cash' arrangements ... at least it will be for as long as there is any cash to use.

Once the Colleagues have reached the point of being overexposed by their long term can kicking they will probably need all the personal controls they can get their hands on to prevent insurrection of some sort. Full scale tracking of people's movements and associations together with an Army under their direction would provide that. Questions about fiscal probity might become impossible to ask. Job done.

Maybe Orwell was right. He just picked the wrong year for the title.

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

911Gary said:

I feel like AZ that once this is all over there will be corruption,skulduggery and indeed massive corporate and indeed National criminal fraud uncovered on a scale unseen in modern political times.
The massive amounts of money borrowed,lost and spent never to be repaid cannot even be contemplated,IMO its the most money grabbing bureaucratic corrupt crock of S**t ever seen in modern times,eye watering sums of money going where? Show us the accounts,oh no sorry we've already asked you cant can you.Money lent to corrupt bankrupt countries who lied to gain access to the club and its money in the first place.
I hope I'm here to see "The chickens come home to roost" because they will.And now they want an Army you couldn't make it up.
G

.they are above the law, and common sense.

Absolutely correct!

As Abraham Lincoln said years ago "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.". The EU are about to discover that reality for themselves. Greece will defaut. Then the balloon will go up. he reality of the fiddles by which Greece got into the EU, when they clearly did not have the economic strength to do and the reality of who is actually going to pay for all of this will suddenly become apartent.

Not the EU politicians of course, who hope to be elseware on a gold plated pension by then. Not on Geece because Greece never could afford these debts. This loss will fall totally upon the EU taxpayers who are going to suddenly find that the costs of membership have permanently massively increased.

I sincerely hope that collars are felt amongst the EU supposedly great and supposedly good Politicians and Eurocrats. This affair coud never work, has never worked and never stood a chance of working. This will have cost hundreds of Billions of Euros and this has been deliberately misrepresented from the start to the EU taxpayers. This has become an outright Ponzi scheme which can never have any place in politics. Or indeed in any other form of business!

[anonymous-user]

Steffan said:

As Abraham Lincoln said years ago "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

The EU is using a more recent quote to live by; "in the primitive simplicity of [the masses] minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously."

(With apologies for quoting Hitler. Again. I don't have a copy of Mein Kampf by the side of the bed, honest.)

[Andy Zarse]

Steffan said:

I do take your point AZ. Mea culpa!

Consider your mea well and truly culpa'ed!

Just to explain the wider implications of the Austrian mess further, have a look at this piece in Forbes by Frances Coppola (who I greatly admire as someone who gets to the point very quickly).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/03...

Bayern Landesbank is already suing Carinthia for $800m, so I think what Frances is describing here is how national and sub-national entities are playing a game of pass the parcel, the star prize being a big fat IOU wrapped up in a parcel bomb.

We are seeing the start of "the buck" being bounced around all over the place when it comes to honouring guarantees, and it will be the same when GREXIT happens. In my view the Hungry Ostrich is going to turn into both a bail-out and a bail-in because bondholders and creditors alone aren’t equal to the massive sums involved.

I recall at the time of the Cyprus bail-in, the concept was described by the Euro Group as a means of “protecting taxpayers” and I said that it would provide no such protection at all. It is beginning to look like the Hypo/HETA will prove my point.