Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[RYH64E]

Welshbeef said:

An interesting solution would be to invite Germany to join the £ zone instead then leave the € to devalue which will enable the remaining economies some chance to prosper.

Invite ROI Ireland to rejoin the UK fully.


A real chance for the second coming of Great Britain.

Yes, a really strong pound, that will help exports...

[Steffan]

Welshbeef said:

Did Greece take out the €280 billion debt with the ECB or did the ECB take it out directly ie they are liable as such Greece could choose to walk away with no legal liability


Worth doing it? What the worst that could happens?

Greece are responsible for the the whole of the €280 Billion Greece borrowed. The EU could in theory take legal action to recover their money. Greece cannot walk away with no liability. However the EU cannot in reality sue for the debts in Greece. IMO. This is a complex matter and I cannot think of any European country who have become actually insolvent. Court of Hague possibly?

Even if the EU actually obtained a judgement the reality would be that actually collecting any of the debts would be virtually impossible. There coud possibly be action against the Foreign investments that Greece may own which could possibly be siezed with appropriate court action. Embassies and the like if there are any owned by Greece outside Greece itself. In reality I think the dire straits that Greece would have sunk to by then would be so dire that serious concern over the plight of the population of Greece would take precedent over the importance of attempting recovery of debt.

But in theory Greece woud be legally liable for the debt. In reality it would not be worth the candle. The EU taxpayers woud pick up this bill as well: (just for a change)!

[Welshbeef]

Are you 100% on the fact the ECB borrowed money to pay off maturing Greece debt?

I'm assuming they ensured it was certainly in Greece's name but what if it isn't... If that's the case Greece walk away that is the best option for you. Start again with zero debt and legally you have not defaulted

[Andy Zarse]

Welshbeef said:

An interesting solution would be to invite Germany to join the £ zone instead then leave the € to devalue which will enable the remaining economies some chance to prosper.

Invite ROI Ireland to rejoin the UK fully.


A real chance for the second coming of Great Britain.

Apart from the fact that I generally haven't the faintest idea what you're on about, I'm intrigued to know if you've been sectioned yet? Seriously, the pound and the Dm? Ask yourself, how would that play in Germany? Or Paris?

[Rovinghawk]

Welshbeef said:

An interesting solution would be to invite Germany to join the £ zone instead then leave the € to devalue which will enable the remaining economies some chance to prosper.

What's in it for Germany? Or us?

[Welshbeef]

Rovinghawk said:

What's in it for Germany? Or us?

For Germany - leaving the Euro debt Ponzi in one place car away from them.

For UK - strong trading partner which is near identical living standards and incomes desires etc.

[Welshbeef]

Andy Zarse said:

Apart from the fact that I generally haven't the faintest idea what you're on about, I'm intrigued to know if you've been sectioned yet? Seriously, the pound and the Dm? Ask yourself, how would that play in Germany? Or Paris?

Just playing out all possibilities / why not / all we currently have is no solution to the Euro problem and hat a big issue will come at some point. This could mitigate some of it maybe.

Plus its good to throw even obscure theories around to review and discount accordingly or some may be great ideas worthy of progress/proper debate over discounting out of hand

[Andy Zarse]

Welshbeef said:

Rovinghawk said:

What's in it for Germany? Or us?

For Germany - leaving the Euro debt Ponzi in one place car away from them.

For UK - strong trading partner which is near identical living standards and incomes desires etc.

See what I mean? No idea what this means. Genuinely not trying to be difficult but what's this about the "car away from them"? I can't make head nor tail of it.

[AstonZagato]

Far away?

[rovermorris999]

Yep, F is next to C on a keyboard. Just a typo, no need to be Sherlock to work that out.

[Borghetto]

Welshbeef said:

Invite ROI Ireland to rejoin the UK fully.


A real chance for the second coming of Great Britain.

I very much doubt that the Irish would buy into your idea Beefy.

[Huntsman]

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

[turbobloke]

Huntsman said:

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

Back to the [future launch rate. Can't be long.

[Andy Zarse]

rovermorris999 said:

Yep, F is next to C on a keyboard. Just a typo, no need to be Sherlock to work that out.

Yes of course I realise that, what I don't understand is a) how Germany leaving the Eurozone would leave debt "in one place far away from them", b) what a Euro debt Ponzi is and c) why he thinks the UK's economic aspirations are strongly aligned with those of the Herr on the Frankfurt omnibus?

I'm not having a go, it all just seems so much gibberish to me.

[Welshbeef]

turbobloke said:

Huntsman said:

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

Back to the [future launch rate. Can't be long.

Thing is the key reason the £ dropped against the € is the huge QE the UK carried out - now the EU are doing the same / moreso as such it should rightly swing back to at previous levels.




Good for my holiday - bad for my villa £ value

[Andy Zarse]

Claudia Skies said:

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

Claudia Skies said:

Andy Zarse said:

Lending 100% mortgages denominated in CHF to Hungarian and Bulgarian house buyers will do this to a bank.

You're learning at last!

No st.

[RYH64E]

Huntsman said:

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

Depends upon your definition of 'well'? The PH solution to Greece's problems is to exit the euro, revert to the Drachma, and let it devalue to restore competiveness. Isn't that what the eurozone as a whole are doing?

I'm sure exporters in the EU are more than happy to see the euro devalue, in my own small way I'm doing exactly what they want by transferring as many USD denominated purchases into the eurozone as I possibly can.

[Andy Zarse]

RYH64E said:

Huntsman said:

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

Depends upon your definition of 'well'? The PH solution to Greece's problems is to exit the euro, revert to the Drachma, and let it devalue to restore competiveness. Isn't that what the eurozone as a whole are doing?

No. It's a very clear demonstration of why the Eurozone doesn't work. Some economies with strong productivity, such as Germany, Holland and surprisingly enough Spain, clearly need a stronger currency. Laggards like France and Italy will be enjoying the weakness. The weak Euro has simply reduced the beneficial effects of the fall in oil prices.

The big elephant in the Eurozone room is the utter failure of economies within the EZ to "converge", which is what we were told would happen when the Euro launched. In fact, "convergence criteria" was a huge buzz word in Brussels in the run up to the launch of the Euro in the late nineties. And what has in fact happened is the opposite; the EZ economies have strongly diverged. Judged on any metric, this is a complete failure of policy.

And then you look at what is easily the Eurozone's biggest market, which is the err... Eurozone itself and we find no such thing which you are suggesting. Instead we find a fixed exchange rate between the diverged economies. Spain is exporting its pain to France, and Germany's industrial machine crushes all in its path.

I honestly believe you are completely wrong on this point, and I think this is because you mistakenly believe the Euro is a true currency, when it clearly is little more than a fixed exchange mechanism with a common bank note.

[turbobloke]

Andy Zarse said:

RYH64E said:

Huntsman said:

1.4 euro to the £, not doing to well is it.

Depends upon your definition of 'well'? The PH solution to Greece's problems is to exit the euro, revert to the Drachma, and let it devalue to restore competiveness. Isn't that what the eurozone as a whole are doing?

No. It's a very clear demonstration of why the Eurozone doesn't work. Some economies with strong productivity, such as Germany, Holland and surprisingly enough Spain, clearly need a stronger currency. Laggards like France and Italy will be enjoying the weakness. The weak Euro has simply reduced the beneficial effects of the fall in oil prices.

The big elephant in the Eurozone room is the utter failure of economies within the EZ to "converge", which is what we were told would happen when the Euro launched. In fact, "convergence criteria" was a huge buzz word in Brussels in the run up to the launch of the Euro in the late nineties. And what has in fact happened is the opposite; the EZ economies have strongly diverged. Judged on any metric, this is a complete failure of policy.

And then you look at what is easily the Eurozone's biggest market, which is the err... Eurozone itself and we find no such thing which you are suggesting. Instead we find a fixed exchange rate between the diverged economies. Spain is exporting its pain to France, and Germany's industrial machine crushes all in its path.

I honestly believe you are completely wrong on this point, and I think this is because you mistakenly believe the Euro is a true currency, when it clearly is little more than a fixed exchange mechanism with a common bank note.

[confused_buyer]

RYH64E said:

Depends upon your definition of 'well'? The PH solution to Greece's problems is to exit the euro, revert to the Drachma, and let it devalue to restore competiveness. Isn't that what the eurozone as a whole are doing?

Yes, but it isn't the same effect. The Euro can do what it likes against the $, Yen, £ whatever but that has no effect on intra-euro trade. It doesn't make Greece more competetive against Germany or a cheaper place to holiday for a Dutch person than Spain.

The problem with the euro has always been the differences between the economies of its members - not between the eurozone and the rest of the world.